Transcription
Be worried. Be careful. You know, we've had the longest bull market in American history, the longest period ever in American history without a market problem since 2008. And maybe it's going to go on forever. Mr. Trump says it is, but it never has. And it worries me that everybody's so happy. I know it's never lasted so long. I know we're all happy right now, but I've been around long enough to know when everybody's happy, somebody should ask questions and worry.
Well, it's clear that you know enough market history to know what you're talking about. Well, I know that I see signs that inflation is coming back. It's not here in a big way yet. I know that everybody's making money. And when everybody's making money, who's left to make money? And I just know that that is usually a sign we're coming to the end. Doesn't have to be, but I just know from my history and my experience, we're getting towards the end.
It's another reason to be concerned is because nearly every market in the world has been doing well and continues to do well. I there are very few that aren't doing well. China is not doing as great as others, but I mean even Usbakistan is starting to boom. So nearly everybody's involved. I know that tariffs and trade wars have never been good. I know that tariffs have never been good for anybody except maybe a few people for a short period of time. So the history of tariffs is not good. Maybe somebody in Washington is realizing that. That's unlikely. In Washington, they don't usually realize anything. But perhaps enough people have been or are being affected that they're calling Washington and say, "Wait a minute, Mr. Trump, be careful. This is not good for us or the world." I hope I hope that's happening. They might make some deal for the press, but I doubt if there's any real lasting deal coming because Mr. Trump and many people are pretty adamant that China's evil and he's made a political career out of it. I don't think he's going to change completely very quickly and I suspect things will get worse before they get better.
Two or three days action, even a week or two's action is not a whole lot in the historical picture. So this does not impress me at all. I mean I notice it but it doesn't make me change my actions because I know that that when and if we have more problems, gold will go up, silver will go up. I bought more silver recently because I suspect that this is not over yet and silver is still down a lot from its all-time high. I own gold. I own silver. I'm not selling either. I bought more silver recently. The all-time high on silver was 50. It made it there twice in history. So, conceivably silver can go much higher. And gold is at an all-time high. For what that's worth, if I were buying one today, I would buy silver. I still own no US stocks. I do own a few in China, a few in Usbekistsan, but for the most part, I am out of stock market investments.
Get out a list of things that are cheap. There's not much cheap anymore. Yes, China is still cheap, or rather, China is still down a fair amount from its all-time high. Usan is too, but look out the window. Most things have done very well in the last little while. I don't know what's going to happen, but I know when everything has done well and is doing well, it is usually the time to ask questions or be cautious.
Well, I know that inflation's going to go higher. I know that the US government has spent gigantic amounts of money in the last few years. Anytime you want to look, it's unbelievable how much money Washington keeps spending. And throughout history, that has not been good down the road. And I know that interest rates will go higher because of all the money spending and we're all going to suffer. I make many mistakes, but in my view, they're warning us bad things are coming. I mean, how can the bond market always go higher and the spending in the debt go higher every day, every week, every month? This cannot continue unless the world has completely changed and there's a new science at work. This cannot continue. This has to lead to problems. I hope I'm wrong. It'd be wonderful if I'm wrong, but I've read enough history to know how the world works.
Well, sure, you default. That's usually what happens. Eventually, people default. Then it's a worse crisis. But I guess you know the numbers. The numbers are staggering and getting worse. And Washington will tell you, "Don't worry. We can keep this up. We can this can go on many, many years." When they say, "Don't worry. I worry more." It is a foreseeable path they could take. Does it relieve anything other than for a short time? Absolutely not. It's a paper. It's swapping paper. I think most people would understand what that is. And if you say it just changes the price level, okay, it changes the price level to a much higher level. And maybe a loaf of bread is not 20 cents. Maybe a loaf of bread is $20. Now, whatever it is, it's not good for you and me.
I don't know if he's on the right track. The world certainly needs them. This period looks more and more like during the 30s when you had a little war here and a little war there and another little war there and then next thing you know some of those little wars got bigger and bigger and the next thing you know we had some big wars. It's to me remarkably scary how similar this is to previous periods in history when a lot of little wars kept breaking out and eventually became big wars. People get used to war and they get used to things being in conflict and then it's less urgent to do something and so you have a big war.
Iran has a very young population. Most of them are not anti- the US. They're too young to be anti the US. They like a lot about American culture and American life. And I would suspect that Iran, as much as anybody else, is certainly ready and willing to make peace with the US, at least the young people, and I hope they will. I'd have no reason to go to war with Iran, and I'm sure you don't either. And I know most of them don't have a reason to go to war. So, let's hope that somebody will pull the trigger for peace. My reading is it's more an Iranian effort than a Washington effort. Either way, I hope it continues forward. But my reading is that the Iranians don't have any interest in war. They know war will not do them any good. They know that they need prosperity cuz they got a lot of young people and they need to feed them and keep them happy.
Whenever you have a new administration, especially in a powerful place like Washington, some of the new players look for change. And that's what's happening now. I mean, most of the new people in the cabinet weren't around in some of the wild, crazy years, and so they would like peace. They don't see a reason to keep shouting at each other. And I hope that that continues. I mean, the Treasury Secretary is an internationalist and many of the rest of them are internationalist and they understand the good that can happen if people stop shouting apparently. I mean, I don't speak to them, so I don't know, but I'm telling you what I read in the press.
Well, they know the benefits of international trade. They know that the US has been expanding its international trade for several years now. They can see that it's been good for many companies, many people, and they want more of it. I don't think there are many isolationists in the new Trump government. And if you have people who have an international outlook, they want to do more with the rest of the world, especially trade.
I will just say again that the United States stock market has been going up for the longest in our history without a problem. And maybe it's going to go up forever. Donald Trump says, "Don't worry, it's going to go up forever." I certainly hope things are going to be up forever for just at least for his term. If nothing else, that would be great.
Well, it's even worse if you're just for silver. So, no, you're observant. And this is important. I hope people understand. These are important observations that you're making. Just because the Dow Jones goes up doesn't mean we're all happy days are here again. There's a lot more to it than just the Dow Jones in nominal terms. That's good. But suppose your wife wants a pair of shoes. Suppose your kid need a new school bag. I mean life is not that static. Life goes on and the prices of other things will go on too. And never all I can observe is that never in history have things always been great for everybody like they are now. And Mr. Trump will tell you, don't worry. I've got things under control. Things are going to be great for the rest of my term. Don't worry. Hooray. [Music]