Transcription
The big questions are what are the big updates on the war, which you need to know and understand. Lots of news regarding the war. But what is useful for you, we will tell you. How much can we benefit from America's record speed? Is crude oil ready to go below $90 or will it stop and get stuck here? What happened in the market on Friday? It is important to know and understand the big game. And what new records the market made on Friday, understand that too. Meanwhile, what is the secret behind the big selling by FIIs that is being seen? Did FIIs really want to sell so much? They have sold, and if they have sold, what does it mean, and has the breakout of Nifty and Bank Nifty failed, which both were preparing for a big breakout? Why can today's session be a make-or-break session? If there is a weak start, should we buy at the start or wait, and where is the next big support for Nifty and Bank Nifty? These are all the questions for which we will get answers. Okay sir, we will talk about our markets, but given the developments in the international market, it has been more than 3 months since the America-Iran war. What is happening in Iran's politics and what claims is Mr. Trump making? These are two things we need to understand, and first, understand the political turmoil in Iran. Iran's President Mr. Pesishian has offered his resignation and sent his resignation to the office of the Supreme Leader Khomenei's son, Monemostaba Khomenei, and he said that the Iranian army, the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, is taking complete control of Iran's power. And he is being kept away from all the major decisions related to the country. So he says that I am not a participant in the decisions. These are reports from the Iranian President's side. Meanwhile, Trump has said a lot in interviews, posts, etc., from Friday to Sunday. I will present it all to you once, tell you exactly what he said. First, he says that Iran has assured him that it will not build a nuclear bomb, and the guarantee that he wanted from Iran, Trump believes he has received that guarantee. However, Iranian media has denied Trump's claims, and he said that Trump also said that if negotiations are not successful, then they can attack. And similar statements have come from two, three, four, five other places, which is fine. So these are basically two big news items in terms of news, on which there was action throughout the weekend. But will it have any impact on us or on crude oil or any kind of impact? See, whether deals happen or not, today or tomorrow. This is assumed, that is assumed. This keeps happening. We have been hearing this for a long time. Correct. Ignore that. Everyone is ignoring it. You also ignore it. The news that is useful, that is worth focusing on from the global market, is the resignation of the Iranian President. Okay. He has offered it. He hasn't given it yet. He is still in office. He is wavering, but hasn't fallen from the chair. If the Iranian President resigns, it could be a major turning point in the war. You need to understand this turning point in two ways. This means that if he steps down as president, then the Supreme Leader Khomenei. He is like the king of the country. This is the President, and this is the Iranian army. Yes. This means that the king is, what should I say? A larger-than-life figure. Okay. He looks after the country overall, not the day-to-day. Who runs the country day-to-day? Either the Iranian government or the Iranian government, meaning President Pesishian. If he leaves, then who? The army. The army. This means that the power will remain with the army. Now, if power comes to the army, two things can happen. It is important to understand both perspectives. Number one, the army, which is generally known for fighting. Soldiers are meant to fight, to die fighting, but not to surrender. Yes. This means that the army, the Iranian army, will not compromise. We will fight until our last breath. We will kill you and die. In such a situation, the fight might escalate, and there might be no compromise. This is one apprehension. Okay? Second, a weak country, in a sense. Weak in the sense that you have been fighting for a long time, doing things, and have suffered losses. If its leadership disintegrates. If the army and the government are not together in a country, then just imagine what could happen to that country. Correct. That you need political leadership as well. Active leadership, and on the other hand, your army. If both are not there, it means your country has become weak internally. Yes. First, both would fight together against America, and now if both become weak, then perhaps a weak Iran might quickly reach a compromise with America. You cannot deny this possibility. So, what will be true between these two, I don't know. Whether he will resign or not, I don't know. But overall, one thing is clear: somewhere in Iran, there are frictions, differences are arising, and you have received a signal of that. In such a situation, we will focus on the simple thing that we understand. And what do we understand? The movement of crude. Correct. The simple thing is important to us. Now, I would say, if Iran and America fight for 5 years and do not reach a compromise, and crude becomes $70, then what is our problem? If Hormuz opens, then what is our problem? Nothing. Most of the world has no problem. Today, Iran and Ukraine and Russia are fighting, aren't they? They are fighting, fighting. Among themselves. Now it will continue their whole lives, like the India-Pakistan situation, where something small keeps happening, sometimes it reduces, sometimes it increases. It will be like that. So, their situation will continue like that. So, our simple thing is, if crude prices increase, we should stress. If crude prices decrease, we should be happy. Simple thing. So, we should analyze any news keeping crude in mind, not without crude. If America and Iran become weak and crude does not fall, what benefit do we get? If farmers become strong and crude falls, it is good for us. What does it matter to us who becomes strong or weak? What matters is whether our crude is strong or crude is weak. Simple thing.