Transcription
欢迎来到我的后劳动经济学系列讲座。这是一个四部分的系列讲座，我将揭示并解释截至 2025 年的后劳动经济学理论。未来它会得到更新，但这基本上是我过去两三年工作成果的顶峰。话不多说，让我们开始吧。
第一讲：更快、更便宜、更安全。为什么人类劳动将消失。
首先，什么是后劳动经济学？简单来说，后劳动经济学代表着一种预期的经济范式，在这种范式中，工资与劳动力的交换不再是经济的主要驱动力。你可以将此视为一种脱钩。如果人工智能和机器人以目前的步伐继续发展，基本上，如果它们以目前的速度进步，我们可以预期，作为经济的一部分，对人类劳动力的需求将实际上下降。简而言之，劳动替代将会发生。
那么，让我们来探讨一下后劳动经济学理论的一些主要标准。
首先，自动化取代。这基本上是创造性破坏或劳动替代的过程，即先进的系统将取代大多数人类工人，特别是知识工作者和熟练的蓝领工人将全部消失，以及非熟练劳动力。从清洁工到钢铁厂，再到律师和会计师，什么都有。从基本原理来看，如果你不需要人类来做某事，如果机器能够做到，那么就没有物理原因需要人类来做。
那么，这会导致什么？这导致的第一后果是我们称之为经济脱钩，即 GDP 增长和经济生产力将继续或加速，同时与人类劳动力或专业知识投入的联系日益疏远。这意味着，在采用后劳动经济范式并实现自动化水平的经济增长中，人类劳动力、人力资本将不再是瓶颈，甚至不再是主要考虑因素。
顺便说一句，如果我使用“自动化”这个词，自动化就是一切自动化。这包括从 Roomba 机器人和工业机器人手臂到人工智能代理、人形机器人以及类似的东西。因此，自动化是所有能够破坏人类劳动需求的技术的集合类别。
下一个后果。如果这两件事发生，自动化取代发生或劳动替代发生，随后是经济脱钩，那么第二个后果是社会契约破裂。当即使是工作的理论权利在超智能机器经济中变得毫无意义时，基本的工资劳动社会契约就会崩溃。
这意味着，自由民主国家的基本社会契约之一就是工作的权利。你有权在任何愿意雇佣你的公司工作，或者任何其他想雇佣你的人那里工作。我们没有种姓制度说你不能做这些工作。我们没有阶级制度说你不允许当总统之类的。只要你有资格，你就可以做任何工作。任何人都可以随时雇佣你或解雇你。这就是我们所说的“工作权”。这些是劳动权利。
然而，即使你拥有工作的假设权利，如果没人雇佣你，那也没关系，因为从公司的角度来看，公司会更倾向于雇佣机器人而不是你。我们将在本课稍后讨论这一点。
那么，接下来我们要想出新的范式，那就是后劳动。
最后是总需求挑战。从经济学家、国家或宏观经济学家的角度来看，最大的问题是，如果工作消失，工资下降，总需求就会下降。因此，当前的消费驱动型市场系统可能会在自动化提高生产力的同时，由于传统的就业驱动的购买力消失而失败。这就是我所说的需求或总需求。基本上，如果失业率过高，那么 TLDR（太长不看），失业率过高，没有人花钱。那么，谁来支付人工智能和机器人生产的商品和服务呢？
好了，这就是后劳动经济学，从 30,000 英尺的高度来看。
现在，更快、更便宜、更安全。一旦机器跨越了这些性能障碍，经济力量就使得取代人类工人不仅成为可能，而且是不可避免的。
每当你看历史时，只要机器或替代品比人类更好、更快、更便宜、更安全，那么让人类继续从事那项工作在经济上就不合理了。
就在我开始录制之前，我在 Twitter 上看到有人在谈论，哦，是的，但蒸汽挖掘机呢？创新和蒸汽挖掘机。你知道，是的，我们使用蒸汽挖掘机，因为它们比人类使用镐和铲子更好、更快、更便宜、更安全，对吧？这就是为什么我们使用重型设备。但是当蒸汽挖掘机自己驾驶时会发生什么？你不需要人类司机，对吧？然后你就用一个自动挖掘机取代了数百名使用镐和铲子的低技能工人。
“更好”——这个标准被定义为当自动化提供的产出明显优于人类时，生产出更高质量的代码、更耐用的结构和更精确的设计。基本上，它就是比大多数人类做得更好。除了可能领域内的顶尖人类。在录制时，许多最新的 AI 模型在代码挑战中都处于 90% 以上的百分位。这意味着，对于任何给定的编码任务，它们生成的代码都比 90% 的人类编码员更好。到你 2025 年或 2026 年观看此视频时，它可能会达到 99% 的百分位。或者说是世界上最好的。这只是一个例子。一旦 AI 进入机器人领域，我不知道你是否曾经建造过房屋，或者住过人类建造的房屋。人类会偷工减料。机器人不会偷工减料，除非你让他们这样做。
接下来是“更快”。这只是时间问题。如果自动化在人类完成任务所需时间的一小部分内完成任务，时间就是金钱。就是这么简单。如果它们更好、更快，并且其他一切都一样，那么就是这样。
然后是“更便宜”。这也是关于底线的。更快的速度意味着金钱。但更便宜只是你投入的总金额。如果雇佣机器人做同样的工作比雇佣人类便宜五倍、十倍或一百倍，你猜怎么着？如果你作为企业主有有限的资金可供花费，你就会选择最便宜的选项。那么，当你结合这个便宜的选项也更好、更快的事实时，你猜怎么着？如果你可以选择雇佣某种自动化，无论是代理、人形机器人还是其他什么，那么雇佣人类就完全不合理了。
然后是“更安全”。这是出于监管和法律目的。财富 500 强公司不愿像我们希望的那样快速采用人工智能和机器人，其中最大的摩擦点之一就是安全、法律责任、损失预防、风险控制等。然而，当我们看自动驾驶汽车时，特斯拉和 Waymo 每行驶里程的致命事故比人类驾驶员少，有时甚至多出十倍或更多。所以它们已经更安全了，但它们无法处理所有边缘情况等等。
总之，口号是：更好、更快、更便宜、更安全。任何时候机器跨越了这四项标准，劳动替代就变得不可避免。
劳动替代就是你找一个人，然后说我们不使用人力，而是使用机器。这就是劳动替代。创造性破坏是一个更广泛的术语，它侧重于当一项新技术基本上摧毁整个行业时。例如，汽车摧毁了马匹行业。这是一个有用的简称。
好了，继续。现在当你思考，好吧，人类在卖什么？当你出售你的劳动时，无论是体力劳动还是知识工作，你都在出售四种基本属性。如果这看起来像一个 D&D 角色表，那大概就是这样。你有力量、敏捷、智力，然后是魅力或智慧，对吧？你可以在这里加上智慧，但力量、敏捷、认知和同理心。
基本上，当你审视所有趋势时，先进的人工智能和机器人正在迅速超越人类在所有生产能力领域。这是从劳动力供给方面来看的。
从劳动力供给方面来看，人类的力量早已被取代。它被蒸汽取代了。它被柴油取代了。它被电动机和电池取代了。所以人类的力量已经过时了。所以，当你想到，哦，使用你的肌肉时，就像，是的，技术上来说，建筑工人使用他们的肌肉。但那更多的是一种敏捷性，因为举起一根梁和使用钻头，那更多的是一种敏捷性任务，它是一种精度而不是蛮力。不是一个人拿着铲子挖地基。不是一个人背着一堆砖头来运送地基的砖头。这些都由机器完成。所以，是的，人类的力量仍然部分相关，但消耗在搬运重物上的大部分卡路里都是由机器、火车、飞机、船只完成的。我们不是一直使用手推车和马车来搬运东西。我们有叉车，等等。
敏捷性。敏捷性是高精度的工作。这是修理管道、布线、使用钻头和锤子以及需要应用物理力量但具有更高精度、平衡性和在混乱环境中工作的工具。敏捷性是机器人即将到来的下一个前沿。机器人已经比人类更强大了。它们只是还没有那么敏捷。但如果你看看最新的研究，来自几乎所有从事机器人研究的人，敏捷性正在到来。所以，这只是一个修复敏捷性并扩大规模的问题。
接下来是认知。这是所有知识工作的基础属性，包括 STEM、医学、外交等。人类智能，这是杰弗里·辛顿的一句话。之前的工业革命使人类的力量变得无关紧要。这次革命将使人类的智能变得无关紧要。基本上，认知将像力量一样消失。这意味着，即使人类很聪明，这并不意味着人类会变笨。这仅仅意味着，相比之下，人工智能将比我们任何人在任何给定工作中都聪明得多。因此，从劳动力供给方面来看，只要你比机器聪明，你就可以为公司提供机器无法提供的东西。但一旦这种情况发生逆转，并且将会，就像会有一个阈值，就像，好吧，机器现在比你聪明了。你没有什么可以从智力上提供给公司了。
同理心或魅力可能是人类比较优势的最后前沿，因为它的真实性。这实际上归结为需求方，我们稍后会讨论。但基本上，有时人类会因为生物原因、进化原因、心理原因等原因而更喜欢人类。它不一定在经济上是合理的。它只是说我有一个偏好，我愿意为人类支付额外的费用。
这一切都来自劳动力供给方面。所以，这是劳动力供给的四个类别，你可以跟踪它们。我知道你们中的许多人说人工智能已经更有同理心了。我用 ChatGPT 作为治疗师。这证明了我的观点，即从劳动力供给方面来看，人类很快就没有多少东西可以提供了。
现在从劳动力需求方面来看。任何市场都有两面：供给和需求。无论你是卖商品，有多少木材可以卖，有多少木材人们想买。然后是服务方面，你可能是一名按摩治疗师。所以，有多少按摩治疗师对按摩治疗师的需求有多少？
所以，总是有供求关系。在劳动力市场中，我们可以从劳动力需求方面来看，看看哪些工作会保留下来。
在后劳动经济中，人类就业仅在人类明确需要其他人类时才得以维持。需求是一个经济术语，基本上意味着我要求我想要一个人类来做这件事。不是像，你知道，干草叉，而是我愿意为此付费。特别是当人类明确需要其他人类，尽管有更优越的自动化替代方案时。这些偏好驱动的就业利基代表了社会愿意为人类参与支付溢价的领域。
首先是高责任工作。需要个人问责制的工作将维持人类的存在，因为法律和社会对责任的要求，即使专业人士越来越多地与人工智能合作。高责任工作可以是总统，你知道，法官、律师、医生、建筑师，对吧？你知道，如果有人建造了一座建筑，它倒塌了，你想要有人来承担责任。你知道，或者如果一辆自动驾驶汽车撞倒了某人，谁拥有这辆车，对吧？所有这些关于责任的问题都会出现。所以，即使假设没有必要有物理原因需要人类负责，也可能存在社会、法律和监管原因，让你说，“嘿，我们想要一个负责任的人来承担责任。”
接下来是法定职位。这是法律框架不考虑由人类以外的其他人来做工作的情况。这回到了所有民选官员、法官、一些认证职业，比如，要成为一名医生，你必须获得董事会认证。还有许多其他需要专业执照的工作。在这些情况下，这些法定职位，它们也可能是高责任职位，它们可能会使用人工智能和机器人。但只是，你知道，如果一个机器人，如果一个医生有一个机器人外科医生，而机器人外科医生杀了一个病人，你仍然会起诉人类医生，或者拥有那个机器人的人，对吧？
接下来是体验经济。神经系统的连接会产生对娱乐、艺术和实体体验中新颖的人际互动的持续需求。这是直接的体验经济。街头艺人，集市上的脸部彩绘师。音乐厅里的音乐家。酒保、咖啡师，诸如此类。你知道，我和一个朋友一起吃午饭，他说，我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?我?
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