Transcription
Hello everyone, I hope everyone is doing well. On this Monday, March 2, 2026, we will take a global look at the Iran, United States conflict and specifically its impacts on the Bitcoin market. So, cryptocurrencies are obviously affected by this major geopolitical conflict. You know very well that risk markets are even more so, because you know, we take risks in risk markets when we believe that the world of tomorrow will be better than the world of today. Currently, this is drastically changing the game with the operations that took place this weekend. We notably have Donald Trump who decided to bomb Iran and to decide to launch a large-scale military operation in Iran. Uh, and so that's what we're going to look at in this video. We will look at the impacts on Bitcoin, the impacts, what we can expect in the coming hours, in the coming days on Bitcoin, on the American stock markets, and on the entire global financial system which will obviously be very affected by this news. So, we'll start right away. So, Bitcoin is currently at $66,000, a little above, $66,067 on Binance as we speak. And we need to look a bit at the price action we have right now. This weekend, we had quite a few movements up and down, but what's important to look at is that we had a compression. Okay? So, if we look here, I'm drawing the indicator that shows you a bit of the weekend and the weekend's trading. So, the stock market closed on Friday around $65,600, and you see that we have oscillated significantly around this value, with a dip into negative territory and notably a return to support at the $63,000 level. A support that we had obviously discussed many times together. This support corresponds to the daily candle. Let's get back to it. Friday's daily candle. Uh, which Friday was it? It was this one. Right here, Friday, February 6, 2026. You see that this candle's body and the top of the candle's body correspond to our range. We have a mid-range that is currently at $66,700, and we are working on the intermediate zone. So, for the moment, obviously, we are moving around a bit within it, but no clear decision has been made at this time. The important thing to note is that precisely, with the decision to bomb Iran, we had a breakout, obviously, because Bitcoin reacts like a risky asset. You know that it has a behavior directly opposite to that of gold, because we tend to buy gold to protect ourselves, to secure our capital, thinking that gold is a safe haven. And we tend to take risks when we believe, as I told you, that the future will be better than the present. And so, when the bombing happened, Bitcoin fell because we didn't want to take risks at that moment. The risk was too high. The bombings announced the death of Ayatollah Romeney in Iran, along with him, a certain number of Iranian leaders. And so, we had a very significant rise in the price of Bitcoin, thinking, "Well, that's it, Donald Trump will do the Venezuela thing again and will succeed in ending the war before Monday." Who will succeed in establishing a provisional government before Monday, the reopening of the US stock market? Because obviously, as you can imagine, Donald Trump doesn't lose his head, and he decided to wait for the US stock market to close before launching his operations. The issue is that now the situation is escalating, and notably a war is starting to take shape, a large-scale war, because notably Iran has decided to bomb all its neighbors, starting with Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, starting with Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and so on. We are seeing many retaliations, obviously, but what's important to know is that Iran knows perfectly well that it cannot compete, especially with its neighbors, but above all with the United States on a purely military level. And so, what will they do, and what is brewing? It's obviously always the same old story. If we can't directly compete militarily with the United States, we will hit them in the wallet. And so, how to hit them in the wallet? Well, the Strait of Hormuz. You know, if you've studied geography a bit, etc., I invite you to look. There's a very good video on X circulating that shows you a bit of the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil passes through there, about 17 million barrels a day. But also, at the Strait of Hormuz, many countries get their supplies almost exclusively through the Strait of Hormuz, starting with India. 60% of the oil consumed by India comes from this Strait of Hormuz. We also have China, we also have Japan, well, most Asian countries. About 10% of the oil consumed in Europe, including Italy, France, and Germany, comes from the Strait of Hormuz. Now, it's not a lot, 10%, you might say. But what you need to understand is that here we have a major global supply, and Iran has control over this Strait. It is jointly managed by the Sultanate of Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. And so, around this area, a real conflict could truly erupt. Knowing that, if Iran decides to close this Strait, which is currently the case, so it has verbally decided that this Strait is closed, and that if anyone tries to cross it in the future, they will automatically be considered an enemy and therefore bombed. So, obviously, from that moment on, you have a freeze of the global economy, and notably of the energy supply. And that has a direct impact. On what? Well, on oil, first of all, on the price of oil. Less quantity necessarily means an increase in price. So, we see this precisely here with the pre-opening price of oil already having climbed sharply. Okay. Since Friday's close, we are currently at a 7% increase with a maximum increase of over 12%. We also have gas, which has also started to pick up again, but we will notably have, and indeed, gold is regaining some strength. We were just talking about it, gold, silver, precious metals are starting to regain some strength, and notably here with gold, which is almost at its candle highs at 5400 points. Regarding oil, what's important to know is that for now, we are in pre-opening. Now, you might think that the impact, if we look at the long-term picture, we notice that there is actually little impact on oil, except that we are currently in pre-opening. Wall Street opens at 3:30 PM French time. So, obviously, we need to be very vigilant about what will happen, because, as we know, Iran has decided to attack oil. So, they have already decided to close the Strait of Hormuz. They have notably bombed a Saudi Aramco oil refinery that produced about 550,000 barrels per day, which is now out of service. So, 550,000 barrels per day represents about 0.5% of global production for a single refinery. So, it's not insignificant. And we can expect them to want to do this. During what? During the opening and notably during the trading of the American markets. Their goal is to sow panic and to hit the United States and the global economy through the financial system. So, to do this, you have a few levers, obviously, which are to cause chaos in global trade and notably through the global economy on oil prices. So, you have the possibility to bomb refineries, you have the possibility to block supplies, you have the possibility to sow panic by bombing areas that were, for the moment, a bit out of danger, typically Dubai, etc. So, this brings to the forefront the fact that no one is safe, that Iran is preparing for very, very violent retaliation. Obviously, the Iranian government has fallen, and that has a direct impact on the command system in Iran. And so, obviously, we must expect some time to have a significant impact. But what I expect is precisely at the opening of the US stock market, events that could intensify, and notably retaliations that could intensify. We notice it directly, they didn't decide to target Saudi Arabia and the neighboring Muslim countries that are oil producers for nothing. It's obviously because they know that it will cause chaos in the economy and the global financial system. So, as you know, Iran is Shia, a branch of Islam, while its neighboring countries are mostly Sunni. And so, in fact, they consider them as enemies as much as if one were Muslim and the other Catholic. So, on this side, don't be fooled. It's not because the neighbors are also Muslim that they won't attack them. So, once we have sown a bit of panic with this chaotic and rather tragic context, it must be noted, we see that from a technical point of view, we are still in our range, but we see that the price action is rather bearish. Okay? It's not very complicated to see. We have highs that are systematically lower than the previous ones. So, liquidity is being created above. This is obvious, but we have something important: technically, the Bollinger Bands are tightening. And they are tightening, and we talked about it, they are tightening with, as you can see, a working of the lower zone of these Bollinger Bands. Okay? We have been working this zone between the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the lower band of these Bollinger Bands for a while. This is rather concerning for Bitcoin, because in such cases, a drop in Bitcoin is to be expected. So, volatility compressions, it's no secret, are precisely what tend to cause very strong volatility movements. Okay? But we can have a volatility movement in either direction. Except that, except that when Bollinger Bands tighten as much as these, and we are working the lower band, it's generally to break downwards. Conversely, when we had a tightening of the Bollinger Bands here and we were working the upper zone of these bands, we then had an upward movement. Okay? And this is obviously not the only example I can give you. There are obviously many others. You see here, tightening of the Bollinger Bands. We were working the lower band, and then we had a bearish breakout. Okay. We can try to see if we've had other similar compressions. Here, for example, a rather significant compression, a compression of the Bollinger Bands. We were working the zone above this median, and then we went strongly upwards. Okay? So, here, we need to be very, very cautious. In this kind of context, there can be very powerful reactions in either direction. And so, if someone breaks the red line, it can cause a very strong wave of panic. In pre-opening, we see the American market is down. You see here, we are in pre-opening, and we already have a drop of around -0.8%. Okay. We went as far as -1.5%. Except that, except that for the moment, we are being held by this famous support, this famous pivot point at 6800 points. A pivot point that could obviously give way, because, well, we will obviously have a wave of panic. Now, we will have institutional investors adjusting their positions because as risk increases, well, naturally, when you are a fund manager, you say, "Yes, there is more risk, so I need to reduce my exposure to maintain optimal market exposure." And so, obviously, we will have sales, but we will also have panic selling because there are a lot of people who are investors in the American markets through ETFs, etc., and who will react very negatively to this news and are waiting for only one thing: the opening of the US stock market to be able to sell. So, we could have a significant bearish panic movement that could trigger cascading liquidations and cause a real major drop. Okay? During these phases, and we experienced this during the Covid era, for those who were already in the market 4 years ago. Yeah, no, well, I'm telling you 4 years ago, no, it's almost 6 years ago now. Uh, so, we were in 2025, hop, 2020, when we had cascading liquidations with bearish gaps materializing and rather strong bearish closes that can materialize. So, here, we need to be very vigilant, and that's why in this second part of the video, I'm going to show you my main indicators to target purchases on Bitcoin, because, as you know, major drops and phases of crash and capitulation are often exceptional opportunity zones, especially for Bitcoin, which has already dropped significantly. We had a capitalization that was heavily impacted on Bitcoin, with the price of Bitcoin falling globally by -52% from its highs. So, currently, we are at $66,000. What level should we wait for before starting to buy back? So, this is the on-chain analysis that will tell us. It is on the on-chain analysis that we will have the most relevant indicators, and we will start right away with a series of indicators. The first one is this one, probably one of the most important, the long and short term cost basis. So, this is the cost basis, the main purchase cost of Bitcoin investors. So, we have surpassed this famous red curve of short-term investors' purchase price for a while now. The purchase price of short-term investors is currently around $87,000. So, they are at a loss, in latent unrealized loss. If we look at all the Bitcoin held, we are around $54,000. $54,000 corresponds to a liquidation zone, a major liquidity grab zone, as you can see mainly here on Alfractal, but you can also see it on Glassnode, we have very significant liquidations here at the 60 level, but also here at the $54,000 level. We have a lot of short liquidations here. Now, obviously, we have liquidations, well, we have short liquidations above our heads, and that's for sure, between $70,000 and $81,000. We have a lot of liquidations. The issue is that if there are more sellers than buyers, the price will fall, and therefore it will be much easier for an exchange to accentuate the drop than to manipulate the price to counterbalance massive sales and to create an upward trend. That is much more complicated. And obviously, the algorithms that will arbitrate between the price of the S&P 500 and the price of other risky assets, if there is a capitulation on the S&P 500, it is very, very likely that there will be a capitulation on Bitcoin. The only time we had an inverse correlation was at the time of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, when the S&P 500 priced it downwards and Bitcoin reacted upwards, which was quite exceptional. It was the first time and it hasn't happened since. That was in 2023. So, here, $54,000. You see that precisely on the long and short term cost basis, we have the realization price, the average purchase price of all Bitcoin, which is at $54,000. So, this could be a direct call zone, knowing that long-term bottoms are generally found around the price realized by long-term holders. This famous blue curve that I'm showing you and displaying right here. The price is currently at $42,000. So, it could still fall sharply. You will see that in all previous bull runs and bear markets, we have gone below this price realized by long-term holders. You see in 2015, the realized price was around $300, and we went down to about $180. Same here in 2018, the price realized by long-term holders was $4,400. We went down to a low of about $3,000 to $3,300 to $3,500. Then we had a significant rise, and when we reached our price realized by long-term holders at the time, we were around $20,000, and we went down, as you know, to around $15,000. So, potentially, we could go below $42,000, $37,000 to $38,000, for example. This is something that is possible. In any case, this indicator, which often gives us very interesting bottom levels, indicates below $42,000. If we look now, we need a clear capitulation of miners. This is another indicator I will look at: during capitulation phases, I want miners to sell en masse. You know, Bitcoin miners are a type of company that produces Bitcoin by using electricity through ASICs. So, they are basically big graphics cards that mine Bitcoin. And obviously, when we reach capitulation phases, their average price is often equal to the current trading price of Bitcoin, or it is higher than the trading price. And that becomes a problem. And so, generally, miners capitulate by selling a lot of their assets to recover some cash at the end of the cycle. And so, you see that in 2018, we had this famous capitulation at our low point. We also had it here in 2022 after the FTX collapse. And so, for the moment, we have had massive selling phases by miners, but since this bear market, we haven't had a drastic and massive capitulation by miners. So, we will need to monitor this indicator as well. An indicator I will follow is the realized HODL ratio, which is an oscillator that shows us overbought and oversold phases. And so, you see that we are not yet in this green zone, in this zone that truly corresponds to when we should buy. Okay? So, this is also an indicator that is a bit in the middle of the race, okay, and which could indeed fall sufficiently in case of a major capitulation of the crypto market, and notably of Bitcoin. So, here, if we look as well, I want to see massive losses taken in Bitcoin. Okay? So, here you have the amount of realized losses, but you have them in Bitcoin instead of having them, or in percentage of market cap rather than in dollars directly. Because the price of Bitcoin is significantly higher than it was in 2018, obviously the realized losses in November 2018 now seem ridiculous. But you have to understand that the market was much smaller than it is now. And so, you see that during the capitulation phases we had, we did not reach capitulation zones as significant as those we had in 2020, or those we had in 2018. Also here in 2022, whether during the Terra Luna collapse or the FTX collapse, you see that we have not yet reached very significant loss-taking zones proportionally to the market cap. And so, this is something I expect, and that I will obviously monitor, because when I have this famous bearish spike, well, this is something I will be able to monitor, and I will be able to buy. And so, obviously, all these indicators that you see here, whether it's Alfractal with liquidation zones, Glassnode, CryptoQuant, which we will also discuss, all these are indicators that I share with my private investment circle. Those who wish to subscribe to this private investment circle, do not hesitate. You have the possibility to do so via the links in the description. You also have the possibility to subscribe to my newsletter. So, once a week approximately, you receive an email that provides my view on the market. It's totally free. So, if you want to do that, don't hesitate. You have the possibility to join Bitunix, our partner, our exclusive partner, the platform that hosts the short-term strategy of my private investment circle. And so, you have the possibility to join Bitunix here via the links in the description to be able to buy the famous bottom when it presents itself. Then, we will look at Alfractal for other indicators. This one, the AV IV. Okay? It's the active value to investor value. It's a way to compare the realized price again by investors and the capitalization of the market cap of investors versus that of active participants. Okay? So, we will rather have short-term holders versus long-term holders. We will look at what they buy and when they sell to look at their average purchase market cap. And so, here we can have a ratio between whether we are closer to the market cap bought by investors or whether we are closer to the market cap bought by the most active people? And so, when this ratio evolves, we can try to find a moment when we reach these low levels of this oscillator at 0.64, a little, no, sorry, a little below, 0.55. 0.55 is really the zone to target. You see that we are not very far from reaching these zones, and so potentially it could be an interesting moment to find buying opportunities. Here, we will look at the P cycle high and lows. So, the P cycle top indicator did not work on this cycle. You see that the crossing of the two curves did not work, but here it had worked rather well in the downward phases. Okay? And so, potentially, at that time, we could also have a crossing between these blue and yellow curves and this green curve, which could give us our bottom point. So, this is also something to monitor to potentially have another indicator that could give us an interesting entry point. We will also look at the moving averages, okay? The 2-year moving average, which allows us to look at the standard deviations here. Let's look rather. You see the standard deviations here? So, here, I will remove the oscillator and we will zoom in together here. On the last phases, you have the 2-year moving average right here. And then you have the multipliers, okay? Now, it's arbitrary, but you have a valuation of this moving average that very regularly gives us interesting entry points. You see to reposition yourself. The moving average here is at $86,000, and so the moving average divided by 2 is at $43,000. So, once again, this gives us an interesting entry point. Okay? So, this is purely technical, but it corroborates a bit the on-chain theory of a return to around $45,000, between $40,000 and $45,000, for example. If we also look at the capitulation indicator, okay, market capitulation oscillator, well, we see that we have not yet returned to the levels we had here and here. So, potentially a new capitulation with a return to these zones. This could be interesting and could give us the starting point of our future range. If there is a capitulation, well, this indicator will be able to tell us: this is capitulation, this is the time to buy. Like those who bought around $60,000, for example. Okay? Then we will try to look here at the MVRV. Now, this one is very, very well known. The realized market cap versus the actual market cap. Okay. So, the market cap corresponds to the global purchase price of all Bitcoin at the time they were actually bought. Okay? So, it's a bit the counterpart of the orange curve you see here, of the realized price. So, this is really the realized price. And here we have the curve of the realized market cap. And we compare it to the actual market cap. And when we find a lower threshold here, meaning that the current market cap is lower than the realized market cap, meaning that the price realized by holders, whether long-term or short-term, well, when it is below the current value of Bitcoin's market capitalization, it is generally a bottom point. This means that all investors are at a loss. And so, this is something we will try to find. And you see that we are not very far. Currently, the rate is 120. Knowing that bottom zones are generally between 0.75 and 0.85 on the MVRV. We will also look at the long-term oscillators on the CryptoQuant side, and notably this one, one of the oldest and most relevant, which is the Mayer Multiple. And here you see that when we have zones that have been reached here, excuse me. So, when this ratio is around 0.5, knowing that it is currently around 0.6, well, generally these are very relevant bottom zones. You see that this was the case here as well. Okay? So, the idea is not necessarily to catch the ultimate bottom, the lowest point Bitcoin has ever reached, but to touch interesting zones to be able to reposition ourselves slowly and to resume our DCA. I think it is too early to restart a DCA, especially in the current macroeconomic context, but I think we are not very far from reaching very interesting zones. And we will finish with this one, the Sharpe ratio, okay? Which is an indicator that I have been following for a long time and that indicates, in traditional finance, William Sharpe, who measures the risk you take relative to the volatility of the asset. So, in fact, we will look at the volatility and the performance of the asset. And here, you see that we are not very far from this interesting buying zone, this blue zone that you see right here. Okay? If we remove the first few months of Bitcoin trading, you see that here, we are not very far from this green zone, and we are not very far from this blue zone, which is very relevant for repositioning to buy. So, here, I invite you to be cautious in this stressful phase of the market. Okay? The American market can surprise us enormously. Okay? For the moment, it seems to be holding up, but you have here a real consolidation for a long time on the S&P 500, and the probability of coming to at least recover some liquidity before moving on is quite high. So, here, everything suggests that we could have a bearish phase at least in the short term on Bitcoin and on all markets. So, I hope this video was helpful. I wish you an excellent week, and please don't hesitate if you want to contact me, you can do so via Telegram on our website. Thank you. Goodbye.