Transcription
One China was decided a long time ago in Cairo and in Potam, and one China would have happened much earlier but for the Korean war, which caused the US 7th Fleet to come in and prevent unification. If the US stops interfering, reunification will be natural and organic. So, the problem of Taiwan is not the problem of Taiwan and the mainland. It's a problem of the US and the mainland because the US doesn't really want unification for as long as possible.
Yeah. The US is one China, but they will manipulate it such that Taiwan wants to be separated for as long as possible. So, when you talk about the Taiwanese people, they are caught in this big game. My point to them is, you can't affect it, but you can decide whether you want to be played on that chessboard and how you want to be played, because if you are happy just to be a pawn, then one day you'll be sacrificed. But if you decide that, no, I will not be a pawn, I will be a castle or a bishop, then you can shape your own future. And the best time to talk to China is yesterday, because relative to the US, China is getting stronger. So, your negotiating position is getting weaker and weaker.
And you should ask yourself not whether I rejoin the mainland, because if Taiwan rejoins the mainland, it's just another province. China has over 30 provinces. It adds nothing to China. So, Taiwan adds something to China by being different. Exactly. By being precious. So, what is precious about Taiwan? Well, it's got 50 years of Japanese colonial history, which has left its DNA in Taiwan culture. So, when you go to Taiwan, you go to Taipei, Kaohsiung, say, "Oh, it looks and feels like Japan." You go to the restaurants, they're small restaurants, the food is very good, and the presentation is beautiful. And ordinary Taiwanese are very friendly, very courteous. Sometimes I said, if all of China were like Taiwan, China will be so beautiful in a certain way. And Chinese people visit Taiwan, they recognize this. So, Taiwan by being Taiwan can add a lot to Chinese culture and civilization. And they should think positively and not think in terms of whether I'm part of China, I'm not.
And in the same way, the mainland should look at Taiwan not as a matter of principle of pride that you left the family, now I want you back, and if you don't want to come back, I will capture you and bring you back. Yes, he may come back, but he'll be a silent and unhappy son, and will not be good for you. In fact, you will poison the family. What you want is to win over Taiwan so they come back, and then the family is enhanced. That requires China to work with the DPP. Now, DPP are very dark green. You can't work with them because they want independence. But most of them are not very deep green. They are shades of green, and many of them should be engaged, and it takes time. It takes patience. It takes generosity.
The Taiwan-China issue has been a key point of tension in global geopolitics for decades. George Yo, former Singaporean Foreign Minister, argues that the One China policy has been in place for a long time. With Taiwan's separation from the mainland dating back to the Chinese Civil War, the US played a critical role in this separation, particularly during the Korean War, when its Seventh Fleet effectively blocked China from retaking Taiwan. This intervention solidified Taiwan's de facto independence and set the stage for the US's strategic ambiguity policy, a policy designed to keep Taiwan's status in limbo, neither fully supporting its independence nor allowing China to assert control. For years, this policy has helped prevent open conflict.
But with the shifting global order, Taiwan's future is now increasingly uncertain. Yo emphasizes that the dynamics are rapidly changing. While China has grown stronger both economically and militarily, the US has been facing internal challenges. This shift presents Taiwan with a pressing dilemma. For decades, Taiwan has relied heavily on US support for its security. But the balance of power is changing. The US may no longer be in a position to provide Taiwan with the same level of protection and support it once did.
Yo suggests that Taiwan should start engaging in direct talks with China sooner rather than later. As China's influence continues to grow, Taiwan's leverage in negotiations will only decrease over time. The longer Taiwan waits, the more difficult it will be to negotiate terms that are favorable to its interests. However, Yo also stresses that China's approach should be one of patience. He warns that forcing reunification would only foster resentment, likening it to a family where a parent forces a child to return home under duress. Such an approach would turn Taiwan into a bad state filled with anger and division. Instead, Yo argues China must engage with Taiwan slowly and respectfully, allowing the process of reunification to unfold gradually. China's long-term goal should be to build trust with Taiwan, not to impose its will.
This process would give Taiwan the space it needs to maintain its political identity while also acknowledging the eventual benefits of reunification with the mainland. The example of Germany's reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall is particularly instructive. The reunification of East and West Germany wasn't without its challenges, but it succeeded because both sides allowed time for healing and integration. This wasn't a rush job. It was a gradual process that respected both sides' identities and political systems. Taiwan and China could follow a similar path if China allows the reunification process to develop naturally without rushing it. Just as East Germany integrated into a unified Germany, Taiwan could find a way to reunite with China while maintaining its democratic system, but only if China allows room for dialogue and mutual respect.
For Taiwan, this means recognizing the changing global landscape. Yo highlights the reality that China is growing stronger by the day, both economically and militarily. The US, on the other hand, is facing significant domestic challenges and declining global influence. Taiwan must come to terms with this new reality and start thinking about its future in a world where China is an economic and geopolitical superpower. While the US has been a crucial partner for Taiwan, it's increasingly clear that Taiwan cannot afford to rely on American support indefinitely. The US may not be able to guarantee Taiwan's security in the future as effectively as it has in the past.
Taiwan, according to Yo, must recognize that it has a limited window of opportunity to negotiate with China. The longer it waits, the more difficult the process of reunification will become. As China grows in power, Taiwan's leverage diminishes. Yo warns that Taiwan may find itself in a position where it is forced to accept terms that are less favorable if it delays too long. The US may not be able to intervene as it once did, and Taiwan could find itself isolated in a changing world order.
At the same time, Yo emphasizes that China must approach Taiwan with patience and understanding. Reunification shouldn't be about forcing a rapid transition, but about creating a framework where both sides can coexist peacefully. Taiwan's political system and democratic identity must be respected. China's patience in the face of this process will be key to preventing resentment from building up. Reunification should not be about coercion. It should be about trust-building, respecting Taiwan's values, and offering a long-term path that benefits both sides.
Ultimately, the Taiwan issue is about more than just territorial claims. It's about the future of Taiwan and China and finding a way forward that respects both Taiwan's democratic identity and China's historical goals. Yo's argument is clear: patience, dialogue, and time are crucial to a peaceful reunification process. Taiwan must act, but it must also recognize the realities of a changing world. The longer Taiwan waits, the more difficult it will be to negotiate terms that protect its interests. But China too must show restraint, allowing for gradual integration rather than rushing the process.
The Taiwan-China relationship is not just about military might or strategic calculations. It's about trust, patience, and understanding. If both sides can find common ground and take a long-term view, a peaceful reunification could still be within reach. But this requires both China and Taiwan to recognize that time is of the essence, and the window for negotiation may not stay open forever.