Transcription
Hello everybody, and welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodity markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics, all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is November 17th, 2025. And I'm thrilled to welcome Gary Savage to the program, a precious metals analyst and president of the Smart Money Tracker investing newsletter.
Gary believes that the market manipulation that was suppressing both gold and silver prices is completely [music] broken, and he thinks gold will hit at least $10,000 and silver will rise to over $200 an ounce this [music] cycle. He breaks down both the technical and fundamental factors that are driving his thesis, along with explaining the signs to watch for that this precious metals bull market is nearing its close and it's time to exit. All of this and so much more ahead. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Gary Savage.
Gary Savage, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Last time we chatted was the end of August when silver was around $38 an ounce. And you said silver would outperform everything this bull cycle. Since then, it has soared to new nominal all-time highs of $54 before correcting to just under 50, attempting another run at 54. Here we are today in around the $50 range. What do you make of silver's recent price action and what will it take to break that resistance at the $54 range in your view?
>> I think we're close to breaking it. We've had, we've had, you know, the initial move up to 50, close to 54, I think it was, and we had a correction of 15% give or take, and then we made a kind of a marginal new high, and now we're pulling back. And I'm trying to, maybe I'll know by the end of the week. Probably just need to see a little more action, but, um, it looks like it's trying to hold that $50 level. Um, if it does, then this turns out to be like a retest of support. And I, I've got a target of $100 silver in 2026, maybe even as early as as late spring of 2026, but I think, I think that the odds are really good that we get there by the end of of 2026. So, I think we've broken the, think we've broken the suppression of the silver market. And I think, uh, um, true price discovery is happening now, and we're, we're on our way.
>> Yeah. In regarding the recent pullback, it's interesting because of course you have people on social media bringing up the manipulation point, uh, price suppression. I spoke to Ed Steer not too long ago. He said these were managed corrections. They weren't natural corrections in the silver market. And he believes that it was the bullion banks and other big players once again trying to bring prices down. But silver has run to new nominal all-time highs. As I mentioned, we've, we've breached the $50 level. Does that show you that those forces attempting to tamp down silver prices are losing control at this point?
>> I think they lost control when they couldn't stop it at 33. 33 was their line in the sand. They, you know, the battle took place over many, many weeks, back and forth, back and forth. Multiple tests, finally broke out. And once it broke out, we, we made a, it was a few little hesitations along the way, but we made pretty much a beeline to $50 and above once it broke through 33. So, I think the suppression, uh, broke in the silver market when they couldn't hold it at 33. Similar to how when they couldn't drive gold back below 2,000, that broke the suppression of the gold market. So, I, I tend to think this is probably, probably more of just a normal correction. Everybody got really bullish. The general public is kind of starting to take notice. You know, just normal corrections. I don't think you have to panic that this is the bullion banks trying to suppress gold. It's just sentiment just gets a little too bullish. You kind of run out of buyers temporarily, and you'll have a little correction. And I, I was kind of expecting this cuz uh, price had gotten stretched quite far above the 200-day and especially the 200-week moving average. We, we really need to correct a lot to shrink that gap, but I'm not convinced that we're going to. I'm, I'm kind of of the opinion that we might be starting the last year, year and a half of the bull market. And if that's the case, we may not make any more trips back down to the 200-day moving average or the, or especially the 200-week moving average until the bull market tops.
>> Yeah, I want to discuss that point, um, of where we are in this current precious metals bull cycle because you posted recently on X, quote, "The largest and quickest gains in a bull market come at the very beginning and very end. This looks like we are entering the bubble phase of this 26-year bull market. During this phase, silver will break out. It already has and produce mind-blowing moves." Now, interestingly, you have a different perspective than a lot of guests on this show who generally believe that we're closer to the beginning than the end of this silver bull cycle. They generally wouldn't call it a bubble. Um, so could you lay out your reasoning for why this is the bubble phase of a 26-year bull market? And you mentioned it could produce some mind-blowing moves. Is that where your, uh, $100 price target is coming from, or do you think it could go even higher than that?
>> Oh, I think we'll go a lot higher than 100. I just think we could hit 100 this this coming year, maybe even as early as late spring. Um, so most of these commodity bull markets unfold in in two phases. Um, the first phase of the gold bull was from, take your pick, it was either '99 or 2001. It double-bottomed at 255, I think it was. Um, and that first, uh, phase of the bull market went from $255 to, I think it was $1920. And then we had a cyclical bear market, which is different than a secular bear market. We're, we've been in a secular bull market in gold since '99, 2001. Um, the first phase topped in 2011. We had a four-year cyclical bear market. Then we started the next phase of of the bull market, which started out pretty slowly. Um, but, um, that phase bottomed with that 8-year cycle low in, in, um, 2015. So, we're now, we're going on 11, like I, well, I guess it would be a little over 10 years, 10 years into this second phase of the bull market. That's pretty mature. Um, the, it, it seems to me that the general public is just now starting to take notice. And and my, um, theory, hypothesis was that once gold got above $4,000, the general pop public would kind of start to take notice. Um, one of the bells ringing for me is one of my rock climbing buddies who knows nothing at all about investing, gold, silver, nothing like that. He calls me and says, "Wow, gold's over $4,000. What do you think?" It's like, that's the bell ringing. It's about time we need a correction. But also that the general public is starting to kind of catch on. And, um, the rule is, when the public starts to catch on, you've got about a year to a year and a half for all of the the public to to pile in. You know, you get the the people like him that have no idea about gold and silver or anything like that. All they know is that their neighbors bragging about how much money he's making in gold and buying gold and silver. And so, you know, that's what drives all, all bull markets is it's just the, you know, the contagion. People start making money at it, and then other people notice that that their friends are making money or their co-workers are making money and they're talking about it. So, they start to jump in. Same thing with a housing bubble. Same thing with the tech bubble. Uh, you know, they're all driven by the same thing. It's just human greed. Um, and I, I think, you know, that phone call from my friend that knows nothing about investing, that was the bell ringing for me that that the, I think the public is starting to take notice. Uh, we're in a corrective phase right now. And we can go over the parameters of what needs to happen to keep this going longer, uh, and what might happen that would, um, mean that we've got a year to a year and a half to go. But I'm pretty sure we're, we're starting, you know, at the very beginning of the bubble phase of this very mature bull market.
>> Well, if you could shed some light on those parameters, that would be fantastic. Um, I don't know if you have a chart that you want to bring up or anything you want to point to in terms of how you could potentially see this precious metal cycle unfolding as we move forward and some of the potential scenarios that could, that could make themselves apparent.
>> All right. So, this is this big term picture or long-term picture. This, this was the first phase of the gold bull market, and then the, the cyclical bear market bottomed, um, at the end of 2015. We started a new bull market, but it started very slowly. It formed as this cup and handle pattern. Here was our last 8-year cycle low in, um, towards the end of 2022. And now you can see that the character of the bull market has completely changed. Uh, we, we have started to go vertical. You know, that's a sign that you're at least in the initial phase of the, of a bubble, and and I think we have a lot further to go, u simply because this, this is what, 11-year base, um, might be longer than that. Um, I guess from 2011, what, 14, 15-year base, something like that. Anyway, uh, the rule is the, the bigger the base, the higher in space. So, I, I think a base this large, you know, 14, 15 years in the making is going to produce at at least a move to 10,000. But you can see the character changed, the, the rate of ascent has has started to go vertical. So, this doesn't suggest to me that we are at the very beginning of a bull market. This suggests to me that we are, um, 25, 26, 27 years into a very mature bull market, and we're, we're well into the second phase of the, of the bull market. Now, let me go to a daily chart and I'll show you what, what we really want to have happen. Although this is not what, um, retail traders are going to want to hear, but the longer we can stay in the wall of worry phase, the higher this is going to go. And by that, I mean, you need, you need these corrections. This is, this keeps the wall of worry intact. You have, this was a four-month sideways churn. This was a, whatever, two or three-month triangle pattern. Another sideways churn. Another sideways churn. As long as you can, uh, continue to have these intermediate corrections, and they can form as either a sideways churn like this has been, or you could get, uh, an ABC move. Um, we might be trying to form an ABC move. And by that, I mean, this is the A wave down. It's the B wave bounce, and then you'll get a C wave that'll undercut this low. So, you get a lot of people that may buy a little early, um, thinking that this is the bottom, and, um, and then they, they get stopped out when it drops below this pivot here. But, but really, that's about, you know, that's when you really should be adding, not panic selling. Uh, because you're, you're pretty close to the bottom once you break this and complete the C wave, and then you start another leg up. And while I think silver's, you know, could could get to, um, $100 by the end of spring, I think gold is probably has a date with 5,000 or 5,500 or, or even maybe more likely 6,000. So, you don't need to panic if this turns into a C wave because it's going to end, and then we're going to make a trip up to 5,500 or $6,000. So, um, you're potentially getting a buying opportunity that way. Now, what would change my mind, and this, this would be the, you know, continuing in the wall of worry phase, if if we come down and make a C wave, and that, that extends the bull market. You know, if we, if we can keep having normal, um, ABC move corrections, intermediate corrections that last four to six to eight weeks, or these long sideways turns, makes the bull market last longer, and we'll ultimately will go a lot higher. If this, uh, just turns out to be a half daily cycle low and we recover, and then we're off to the races again, and we make higher highs here pretty quick. Um, you know, that, that's what retail traders would would like to see. Uh, the problem, of course, is that that means that we are definitely in the last year of the bull market, and our, our potential is limited at that point because we just have a limited amount of time to complete the move. Now, the move will put on a lot of percent because you'll, you'll go parabolic during this, this period. So, I, I think we definitely, even if, even if we recover and we don't really get the, um, the wall of worry type correction we want, we recover, we make higher highs, and it, it signals that we're in the, you know, early part of the bubble phase. Um, then I, we still, we're still going to get to 10,000, and we're probably still going to get to 200, maybe 250 or more in silver, but we're not going to get to $15,000, and we're probably not going to get to $500 silver if, um, we lose the wall of worry phase here and we just start to transition into the manic buying phase.
The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307-264-9441 [music] or by email at ian@archsg.com. Make sure to tell him, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. [music]
And when it comes to when this bull cycle is ending, what are the signs you'll be looking for? Do you expect a rather steep, uh, correction on the other side? As we saw the last two times that silver hit all around the $50 range, 1980 and 2011, respectively, it fell pretty fast on the other side of those. Obviously, gold, a very different story because it's less volatile. But how, how will investors and traders know that this bull cycle is in fact winding down and and not just another opportunity to buy the dip?
>> Well, if the gold-silver ratio gets to, I think it's probably going to go somewhere between 20 to 1 to 30 to 1, that's a sign that the, the bull market is is coming to an end. The metals are severely overvalued. You need to find something else that's undervalued. Uh, if the Dow gold ratio goes to, I'm going to guess and say three or four to one, um, then it's time to sell your gold and silver and buy stocks. Stocks are undervalued. Gold is overvalued. So those are the two main things I'll look for. You'll also see, um, the move will have become very parabolic. Uh, we'll probably, silver will have probably done certainly 100% within a year. Probably 200% or 300% within a year. It'll be stretched insanely far above the 200-day and especially the 200-week moving average. These are all the, the kind of things that get maybe inexperienced retail traders, um, very overconfident. And so that's why you see the public buying. They don't really know what's, they don't really know what they're doing. They just just copying their neighbor. But, but these are dangerous signs when price gets stretched that far above the mean, and when you know, when the price of silver's gone up 200% in a year or 300% a year, it's dangerous, um, dangerous at that point, and it, and it means you got to sell. But the, the two main, the main one is just the gold-silver ratio. If it gets down to between 20 and 30 to 1, and then also the Dow gold ratio.
>> You posted about the Dow gold ratio also recently. You said if it gets back to three or lower, it will be time to sell gold and buy undervalued stocks, as you just mentioned. Firstly, would you sell your entire gold position at that point? You know, you, you have a different view than a lot of guests on this show. You're kind of a contrarian within the precious metal space, which is why I love talking to you because most people I speak to when it comes to gold and silver, many would just never sell their physical metal no matter what because they believe it's, you know, a store of wealth, protection from inflation, a way to remove your wealth from counterparty risk of a bank account or or being in the hands of some other financial intermediary. And there are some who might sell some on a profit, but they would keep a core holding. What's your view there? Is there some certain amount of physical metals that you'll always hold on to no matter what, or would you sell the whole thing? And secondly, what type of stocks would you be looking to buy once we reach those, those levels of of three or lower on the the data gold chart?
>> All right. So, let's look at that 1980 high in gold. Should an investor have held on to his gold and silver at that top? Took, took 40, what, 45 years for silver to break out. Do you really want to hold for 45 years? Well, I mean, inflation's going to keep keep going, and it, it'll just move to a different area. Um, you know, inflation was pumping up stocks during the period that gold and silver were in their their long-term secular bear market. So, how well did somebody do by having this mindset that they had to hold on to their gold and silver from that 1980 top? They, they should have sold that gold and silver and bought stocks. Stocks were undervalued. They would have made a lot of money. It's not going to be any different this time. Gold will get overvalued. Stocks will get undervalued, or something will. The dollar will probably be undervalued. And it's just the way markets work. They, they move from, um, periods of extreme undervaluation to periods of, uh, extreme overvaluation because human emotions never change. We go to extremes on both sides. So, yeah, there, there's, well, first off, I don't have enough years left to survive a 20 or 30-year bear market in metals to just get back to even, which in inflation-adjusted terms would be losing, you know, an, an extreme amount of wealth, even if the nominal price got back to even. So, no, I absolutely will not hold on to my gold and silver when, when the time comes and the markets say, "Hey, this is, this is insanely overvalued. All my neighbors are buying gold and silver. I need to sell my gold and silver to my neighbors." Um, uh, stocks. If, if the gold, if the Dow gold ratio were to get down to three, then I would, um, and we were to have like a big nasty bear market in stocks. I don't generally buy individual stocks. They just have company-specific risks. I would just buy the, the indexes, the, the QQQ or the SPY.
>> That makes a lot of sense. Now, I, I just want to have one more follow-up regarding the length of this, uh, bull market because a lot of people, and indeed many did in the comments section of the last interview we did, brought up the fact that, well, perhaps this time is different when it comes to gold and the potential monetary shift that we're seeing happen around the world. Um, the deteriorating value of fiat currency. You know, we've been in a global experiment since '71 where no money anywhere is backed by anything of real value. So, some people believe that's reaching its end, and we're going to have to reintroduce gold into the monetary system, whether that's through choice or whether that's because we're eventually forced to do so. We've obviously seen the story with central banks hoarding gold, stacking gold, nations divesting themselves of US Treasuries in favor of gold, and BRICS nations seeking to use gold to potentially settle trade between them outside of the dollar. With all these fundamental tailwinds in place, could this bull market in fact continue on for much longer than you're anticipating?
>> So, I heard all those same narratives in 1980 that Nixon had taken us off the gold standard and the dollar was, you know, going to collapse and we're going to hyperinflate, and none of that's going to happen. We're not going to go back to a gold-backed system. Um, that there's, for for one, well, two reasons. Politicians like to be able to print money, so they're just never going to do it. Uh, secondly, the, the money supply has to expand, uh, proportional to the, to the, um, productive capacity of the, of the country and of the world. So, when you get in these new technological advances like, um, uh, in the, in the '30s, it was the automobile and the mass production, and then it was electronics and plastics in the '60s, and now in the, in the '80s, it was the, uh, computer and the, um, internet. Now it's AI and robotics and other things. The, the money supply has to be able to expand and expand rapidly because production is expanding rapidly. So, no, we're not going to go back to a, a gold-backed system because you can't, you can't expand the, the money supply fast enough to keep up with the technological innovation that's happening. And, and that never stopped gold backing, never stopped countries from printing anyway. So, um, I think people are just kidding themselves if they think that we're ever going to go back on a gold system. Gold is a, is a good protection. It's a good hedge against inflation during an inflationary period, but the inflationary periods always come to an end at some point. Human beings, you know, we'll, we'll do the wrong thing a hundred times in a row until we're finally forced to do the right thing. We'll eventually do the right thing, and then we'll get, put ourselves in a recession. That's the only way we're going to stop inflation. But, um, inflation will end, and then, um, it'll, it'll be time for gold and silver. They'll be overvalued. We will have taken price to an absurd extreme, and that the narrative will be the same as it was in '80. This time is different. Well, it's always different until it isn't anymore. So, you know, I, I'm not in that camp. It's a great narrative for that people can use for, you know, why you should buy gold and silver. It'll be the narrative that they'll use to keep people holding their, their gold and silver when the top comes. And then they'll write it all the way down into the bottom, which at this point, if we go to 10,000, then we're, we're probably going to go back to 2,000 or maybe even lower, um, during the bear market. Depends on how high it goes as to how low it goes. But there's always a narrative at, at every top of every bubble. Doesn't matter. You know, there was a narrative in, in Bitcoin for why it was going to, um, a million, and then it went back down to whatever it was, 4,000 or something like that. Bitcoin's extremely volatile, but it does recover from its, its busted bubbles quickly, fairly quickly. So, that, that's one positive for Bitcoin. I, I do think Bitcoin's probably put in a four-year cycle top as well, but, um, it doesn't, it generally, or at least it hasn't, it hasn't taken 20 years for Bitcoin to to recover from a busted bubble. That it's like within four or five years, it recovers. Um, maybe, maybe that would be the thing to to buy when the, when gold tops is maybe that's the point of where you want to buy Bitcoin if it's really suppressed. But anyway, uh, no, it's not different. It's never different this time.
>> Yeah, some great, great thoughts there. There's a lot of emotion that gets involved with stackers, um, of gold and silver, and there's a lot of emotion around Bitcoin as well from the, from the gold and silver stackers. They have like an innate emotional just hatred of Bitcoin. Um, and Bitcoiners, the maxis tend to hate gold as well. It's this bizarre dichotomy. People seem to get caught up in like a religious fervor on either side that that their side has the one true answer and the solution to fixing society. And speaking of what's going on in society right now, I want to switch things up a little bit. Talk about the concept of socialism. This has been coming up a lot recently, especially since we've seen the election of the so-called Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamani as the mayor of New York, who has been talking about government-run grocery stores, extra taxes on high-income earners, along with other policies aimed at bringing down the cost of living for your average Joe and Jane six-pack. Now, his concept of taxing the rich and implementing price controls has been tried unsuccessfully many times before. Is this time any different? I, I think the answer will be no based on what we've been talking about with markets. And why do you think, what, what is the impetus? What is the the feeling within society in in New York that caused Mamani to get elected?
>> We're taking our first baby steps towards socialism. Um, so there's a couple things. I mean, this has failed every single single time it's tried. So, anybody that's pushing democratic socialism, they're a grifter. They know that the people that get rich under socialism are the government, the people that are in the government. So these, these people, they, you know, they're not stupid. They know history and they know that this doesn't work and it just destroys society, but it's good for them. And it's very easy to sell this to, um, the middle class and the lower class when, when we get into tough economic times. All, you know, this is always the risk when you get into an inflationary cycle, and the, and this affects the the lower class and the middle class, and the, and the grifter politicians. It's easy for them to sell socialism. They, you know, probably the single worst human emotion, the most destructive human emotion is envy. And it's very easy to stoke envy in the middle class and the lower class and say, you know, I'm going to make your life better because we're going to take from those evil rich people and give to you, and and everybody will be equal, and eventually everybody will be equal, but everybody will be equally miserable. Um, socialism takes away the the, um, incentive for people to risk and innovate. If, if you're going to be doled out the same little cup of food or bread that that the the next person is, then what is your incentive to to work hard? There is none. You know, if your neighbor is going to be a lazy slob and sit on his couch and play video games, and you're out busting your ass 12 hours a day, and the government takes everything away from you and gives your neighbor his ration of of food, and you get that same ration, there is absolutely no incentive for you to to, you know, work work hard and and produce and and risk. So, that is, that is the reason that socialism fails. It sounds good to these, you know, to young kids that don't know any better, or people that are in the middle class and lower class. It's very easy to trigger envy in these people and think that, oh, I'm, I'm oppressed because Jeff Bezos has, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars and has a yacht, and, you know, somehow he's taken from me. Well, he really hasn't. He's just, you know, created a, a company that you like his products, and and you like his products more than you like the dollars in your pocket. So, you give those dollars to him. Um, that's the way capitalism works. And unfortunately, every system has to deal with some amount of corruption. It's going to be corruption in capitalism. It's worse in socialism, but this is always the excuse. Well, capitalism is, you know, you get crony capitalism. Yeah. It's just like every business has to deal with some amount of theft. But if it's a robust enough system to survive the theft or survive the corruption, then that's as good as you can get. You can't, utopia is not achievable on this planet. There, there's always going to be, you know, there's always going to be 15% of the population is always going to be poor. It's just the way it is. When, when we started the great, you know, welfare state, great society to end, you know, poverty, um, the percentage of the population that was in poverty was 15%. Well, we spent about $10 trillion since then fighting poverty, and the percentage of people that are poor now is 15%. So, all we did was waste $10 trillion. We took away the incentive for people to try and improve their life. If they can get by by just, you know, surviving on the government dole, then, then they will. And then the government, you know, they, they put, um, qualifications to get your money. You can only make so much money. So, what does that do? It incentivizes you not to work if you don't want to lose your, your benefits. And let's say the, the qualification is you make less than, I don't know, $20,000 or $15,000 a year. Well, where is the incentive for you to go get a, you know, a minimum wage job, which of course is is a starting level job. People want to say, oh, you know, people should be able to have a living wage. Well, you, you earn a living wage. You start off with minimum wage and you work your way up. You're a good employee, you get raises, eventually. Maybe you're in management. You earn your way to a living wage. Um, but, you know, if, if you, you know, get a job and you're making $17,000, where is the incentive to go to work 40 hours a week to make $2,000 more than you could have got by just sitting on your couch doing nothing? So, they've, these policies have terrible consequences. Politicians, they either don't try and foresee the future, or they don't care because it sounds good. You know, we're going to help the poor. Well, you actually didn't help the poor. You trapped them into poverty. It would have been better off if you would, you know, temporarily help them, but then demand that they get back on their feet. And if they don't, they suffer the consequences. I guarantee you if you have to suffer the consequences, you, you'll get your, you know, what together and you'll start, you know, producing. It's, I think it's pretty easy for almost anybody to get to at least a middle-class lifestyle if they just make, um, you know, good decisions. Don't do stupid stuff. Don't waste all your money. And it's, it's not that hard to to get to a very comfortable middle-class or even upper-middle-class, um, lifestyle by, you know, maybe you get a job in in an industry and you kind of learn the industry, and then you think, well, I could, I can do this on my own, and you start a small business. It's how most small businesses start. But it requires that you save your money, not go out and party, not get Starbucks coffee every day, not buy the latest fashion every other week. You save your money, and then you take risk and you start your own company, and that's how a lot of companies are built.
>> Yeah, some very interesting thoughts there. I think this has come about largely, the the election of Mamani and this this push towards a more socialist viewpoint has certainly come about due to disillusionment of of the youth of today who are entering the workforce often saddled with tremendous amounts of of student loan debt, uh, going to university or going to college in many cases no longer seems to really be a worthwhile investment. Uh, obviously the cost of living rising rapidly, the cost of buying a new home has gone through the roof, seems out of reach for most people. So to some extent, I, I completely agree with you. But do you think that there's a bigger hurdle for for young people entering the workforce today to cross than perhaps there was 20, 30 years ago? I tend to think maybe a lot of college students, well, first off, they get indoctrinated into this Marxist viewpoint, and they, they want to consider that they're a victim, and that's a terrible mentality to have. Now, when I was when I was young in my 20s, I couldn't afford a house. I had to work and earn and save before I could earn a house. It seems to me that, um, young people nowadays have maybe have gotten coddled a little bit, and they want to, they want to come out of college and just think that the world owes them, um, rather than, you know, the way we had to do it when I was a kid. You start at the bottom and you work your way up. Um, I think, I think young people nowadays think that they should be able to start at the top. Not, it's never worked that way in the whole history of the world. So I don't know why it should change now. And, and that's a, a great motivator for them to drift towards socialism. It's like, since I can't start at the top, then I think it's a good idea to drag the people that are at the top that have succeeded. I think it's a good idea to drag them down. It's just a, I think that our education system has has failed us.
>> Yeah, I agree with that. And I think narcissism has become a more, um, regular stance, particularly with the growth of social media. Everybody wants to become their own little movie star in their own little world, showing everybody how great their life is. This fuels the very envy you were talking about, and and people start to think that they deserve those things they're seeing. I mean, that, that whole aspect is a mess as well. But I'd love to get your thoughts on your average investor out there trying to get ahead today, not just survive, but thrive in our current economic environment. What would you say are the most useful skills to learn? And how should they approach both capital appreciation and capital preservation?
>> So, we are in an inflationary cycle, and I, I tried to warn people, not that my voice is big enough to make any difference, but by the second week of the lockdown, it was guaranteed that we were going to ignite the, the inflation cycle, and that generally always ignites the war cycle. So, and, and it did. Um, when you're in an inflationary cycle, you have to own appreciating assets. You can't waste your money on on Starbucks and, you know, new clothes and stuff like that. You, you have to, gold and silver are very easy to buy. Silver especially is not out of out of reach for even, you know, the very average, you middle, lower, even lower-middle-class, um, investor or just person in general. You know, just, just save some of your paycheck every, every couple weeks and put it towards, you know, a few ounces of silver and just keep stacking and stacking because in an inflationary environment, you need appreciating assets that will keep up with inflation. Uh, otherwise, you just destroy your, your purchasing, your purchasing power and your wealth. So, that would be the main one. I think is, is people need to change their mindset, quit buying depreciating liabilities that just throw your money down the drain. You need to start investing in assets that will protect you in this inflationary environment.
>> Yeah, completely agree with you there. And I think to your point earlier about the education system failing people, I think most people look at money as something that is to be spent on things that they enjoy. That's no matter how little they have, that seems to be the prevalent mindset. "I deserve this. I worked hard. I should get this," as opposed to saving in precious metals. As you mentioned,
>> I hear so often, I hear, well, there's so many people that are just living paycheck to paycheck. Well, I, I suspect if you actually dug a little deeper, you would find out that these people spend their whole paycheck every week on worthless crap. So, it's not that they're not making enough money to survive on. They're just throwing it away. So, you know, it's just an inflationary environment, you need a different kind of mindset. You just can't throw that money away on worthless crap. You've got to buy assets to protect your wealth.
>> Absolutely. Well, Gary, it's been a fantastic conversation. Tell us about the Smart Money Tracker newsletter and anywhere else you'd like to direct people who want to follow your work.
>> Oh, so the easiest place to follow me, it would be on X. My, um, handle or whatever you call it, is Gary Savage and then the number one. Um, I post, um, I occasionally I'll post charts and have comments on mostly on metals, but occasionally on the stock market or Bitcoin or something from time to time, although I am solely focused on the metals now that we've broken the suppression in in the entire metals sector and we've broken out of that cup and handle pattern. I did just recently reopen the SMT for yearly subscriptions. I don't do monthly subscriptions anymore. I don't want these people that are, you know, that if you don't make money the first week, they get frustrated and and leave. You got to give me a year. If you give me a year, you're going to make money. I'm going to be focused on metals and I'm going to, um, basically I'm going to try and ride those two intermediate or I'm going to try and buy at those two intermediate cycle bottoms every year and then ride that intermediate rally. When we're in a corrective phase, I don't wander off into other markets. We just kind of set and twiddle our thumbs. If we do make a trade, it's something very small, you know, try and get a base hit. Basically, we just don't want to give back any of our gains from the, from the, um, ride up on the previous intermediate cycle. And that's what we did last year. We rode that first wave up to that top in April. And then we just kind of twiddled our thumbs for four months while we waited for that correction to play out. And then we rode that second wave up. And we did this in leverage. So, um, the people that followed had the patience to wait during the corrected periods and then were prepared to step on the gas pretty hard during the rallies. Um, I, I think the least anybody made last year was 100%. And I've, I've got multiple, um, traders that were a little more aggressive with their leverage that made four and 500% last year. I think this year is going to be pretty much the same, but, um, you have to, you know, if you're going to join the SMT, you, you're going to have to just be focused on metals. I'm not going to give you any or much advice on trading anything else. I'm not going to get sidetracked into uranium or Bitcoin or stocks or anything like that. I'm just tunnel-visioned on on the metals. You're going to have to have patience, uh, when we get into these corrective periods, and you absolutely are going to have to be able to control greed when we, when we get to the top of these rallies. There's always going to be a narrative that's very compelling that this is different, and it's just going to keep going and going and going, and, uh, and if you can't control greed, then you get caught in these intermediate degree corrections, which is not the end of the world. But if you're leveraged into an intermediate correction, it is very painful. Um, and generally what happens, even, even if you're not leveraged, generally what happens to an inexperienced trader is they, they panic right at the bottom and they sell right when they should be buying, or at the very least, they should continue to hold. Um, and then if you magnify that by, you know, however much, um, mentally you magnify it by 10 if you're leveraged and get dragged down into one of those intermediate degree corrections. So, um, the SMT is open. Um, I'm open for yearly subscriptions, yearly subscriptions only. Those are the prerequisites. If you, if you're going to join, you're going to have to be patient, going to be able to control greed, and you're going to have to be tunnel-visioned on on metals. And if you can do that, um, I will make you money, and I will probably make you a lot of money by the end of next year. I'm not going to promise that I'm going to make you money next week or next month, but by the end of next year, I think you'll be up probably 50 to 100% or more because I think the bull market's only going to accelerate.
>> And where can people sign up for SMT? Should they reach out to you on X? Is there a website they can go to?
>> Uh, you can just Google Smart Money Tracker, and that'll take you to either the blog, which I don't really do much with the blog anymore, but, um, there is a link on the blog that'll take you to the premium website, and, uh, and if you Google Smart Money Track, it'll probably take you to the premium website as well.
>> Okay, great. I'll also find that and put a link in the description below so people can access that directly. Thank you so much, Gary, for coming on. It's been a blast.
>> Thanks again, Jesse.
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