Transcription
Intel's down about 10% the time recording this. We have to get to that and what's going on on the conference call right now. But before that, let's run through the indexes. Welcome back, everybody.
So, let's just start with the basics, and then we're going to get into what's actually going on. What are the big moves out there, and what type of style I think you should be using right now in the market? I'm going to cover this, uh, a little bit, and I think it'll be really helpful. And we're going to get full-blown into it on Saturday, uh, on Saturday's video because Saturday is when we kind of do the, not kind of, we do the deep dives then.
All right, let's do it. Now, we're just going to start with the basics. And obviously, we're just going to start with the futures market. You do have this trend, but you have this rising wedge, and we've been talking about this for some time. What we want to do is just the basics, and then we're going to really dive into this. So, we're going to use the point, and then we're going to use the next point, and then we're just going to come up all the way. Yay. We can see our little line right in here. Then from there, all we're going to do is drop directly to the high right here. This doji right here. Right? Dojis are the signs of what? Uncertainty. Correct. And if we just come right to that point, if we got it perfectly, you could see how you got perfectly wedged in. And what did you do? You broke to the downside. These are the facts. It doesn't mean you're going to fall off a cliff. It doesn't mean the sky is falling. I'm not going to pretend to be a Japanese expert like a bunch of other people about what Bank of Japan's going to do tonight. Anything they're going to do has already been factored in in one form or another. It's just degrees of it.
What we are going to do is we're going to take a look at where the players are. When you understand where the players are, that makes all the difference. So, you can see the value low of that area. You can see the point of control and the value high. So if we blow this up, we can see that we came right to the value low. We can see that we got over the point of control today, which is a pretty big deal. But you are pretty capped up here right around that 6980, and you've been trying to get above that. Now, there's some news after hours on Intel, which did not do very well, to say the least. And there's some things going on that we absolutely 100% have to go over. But that said, let's just dive into the NQ before we get there.
If we look, we're going to just do the same exact thing, and we're going to drop the pin right here. Now, when we drop this pin down, we're going to note a couple things, and I think that these are very, very important. From that pin over, you can see where our level is, and you can see how we're not getting over the point of control. The problem that you're running into here with the NQ, and we can do the same exact thing. We can just go right to that body. And I use the bodies. Why? Because wicks are what? Price rejection. You are trying to flip over that. Again, trying is the key word. But what we really want to focus on is that you have a point of control that is much, much higher than what you have here. That's not great. That the point of control is actually higher. You'd want it to be middle of the road. And this is where it gets kind of goofy. Once we understand this, we realize that they're weighing on the market.
So, the first thing that you're going to take from this is anybody that would look at this market since October and since this date, you'll remember if you've been watching these videos for some time, it was October 7th before this even happened. I stated that we went to cash. It was like right in here. We did that for a couple different reasons. Uh, you can go back and watch that video if you really care to, but I'll walk through some things here that I think you want to start paying attention to. Uh, but that really has solidified the entire move. You can't break above it. You can't break below it. And you've been riding the lightning ever since. That is not a trending market. So no matter what anybody says, you are not in a trending market. Meaning if you bought the market October 9th, you had several chances where you could have just rode the lightning. Right? And now here's the other thing that people aren't realizing. You are flatlining. So when you flatline on moving averages, they lose. Please listen to this part of it. When you flatline on moving averages, they lose their luster. It doesn't matter. Up over, up, over. Nobody cares. Moving averages are great in trending markets. You're not in a trending market. As much as we want to pretend that we are, we're not.
Now, if we take this a little further and we go to the Qs, and we look at our levels here, you'll start saying over, under, over, under, and it doesn't matter. All three of these are within a couple dollars of each other now. And when you're in a trending market, if you take a look at a trending market, that's not the case. So when they get and congested like that, it doesn't mean something wicked this way comes. It just means that you are no longer trending. So if we look from this level, and again, here's that control bar, and you can see those areas. Go back to a bare chart, drop this to a four-hour, and watch. And this is the thing that we were all over everybody today in the community. By the way, if you're trying to get in, please look for an email. I think there's two days left for this batch that just went out, invites that just went. Uh, but what we want to do here is we want to watch this really, really closely. Now, why do we want to watch this so closely? What's so important about this? Well, that is point of control, and you cannot get over it. This is the value low, and you can't break it. So, are you going anywhere?
Well, if you ask anybody out there, and let's clean this all off for a second. Everyone's got their opinion, right? Oh, the market's going to crash. Oh, the market's going to go to new highs. Oh, the market's going to crash. Anyone think that the third option is we just go sideways and we keep rotating? Because that's the game that we've been playing in the community now for months. And I think that that's really what you want to focus on. You are in a trading market, and when you're in a trading market, you need to trade supports and resistances, and you have to rotate the ideas. The idea of just holding a swing for a period of time is going to work until it doesn't, and then you're not going to understand why it's not working anymore. And also, you get to an area, especially on the Qs. Remember when we looked at the Spy? Just so we're clear, the Spy, you could make the argument that you're still trending. You could make that argument. Low, higher, low, higher, low, higher, high, higher high. With me? Good. All right. And I keep doing these rolling unedited. It was funny. I was just talking to somebody that's joined the community, and he brought it up, too. Just keep them raw and unedited. And I think it's better because at least you get my framework on how I think. And you might just be like, "Oh, he has no idea what he's doing." But at least you at least you know where it's coming from.
So if you take a look at these levels and you see where we're at, you're in a non-trending market. You're range-bound. How do you make money? You rotate. That's what's going to work. Rotation is going to work. And that's exactly what we're talking about. Now, when you drop this to a five-minute, you're not going to be able to miss it. You cannot miss what's happening here, can you? There's that 29 level, but here we are again. And why can't we break above this level? So if we watch that level off, we go to a four-hour here, and we understand what that level is. All we're going to do is go back to the point, drop it down here, and go, "It's a Christmas miracle." And then we're going to go to the five-minute and go, "I can't believe that." Yep, there it is. And you can just see it. Thursday from the 22nd all the way through right now. Keeps going. And I think again that this is super important for people to get. These levels are dropping. They are dropping. And the point of control is moving higher, which is not great, but the value high is dropping. It used to be a lot higher. It's not anymore. And that's becoming a problem. And that's another issue. Like it used to be up a little higher in here into the 30s. You're not. So, it, it's anchored to an area, and then as you trade it moves from that area. That's why it's so important to pick the right pain point. We could should do a video on that. Anyway, here's the point that I'm getting at in regards to this. You're unable to get above that. Ever since this lowered, you're not going anywhere. Friday before we got Greenland, you, you can't break. So, here we are. And now we can see again, here we are again, right? And just this look, I'm trying not to laugh when I say it, but look at it. Like, it's, it's really hard. I'll get rid of the pre and the post. You can't miss it. That's the level, and that's what you're fighting. Now, you're flipping it in a couple different areas, but since Friday, you've not been able to get above point of control. That's not great. And 626 was the other area from the four-hour that you weren't able to get through before if I swing this down. And that was an area before where we had that level, and we just kept talking about it going, "Hey, we can't get through this." And we watched that over and over again. Now, it's that level. So, they're walking us down, but does that mean that we're going to fall and the sky is going to break and this is going to happen and blah blah blah? And you're going sideways, man. Just call it what it is. And this is what you have. You have to learn to trade what's in front of you. And now you need the tools to do that. I'm telling you, one of them is rotation.
So, when you hit targets and people have the opportunity to get out of what they bought three days earlier, do you know what they do? They get out. They have an evil horror. So, here you are on, right? Take a look at Friday, and all of a sudden, what happened? Oh, Thursday. You mean I can get out where I got in? Yep. Oh, look. I got right back to what? Where I could have gotten out, and I ran again. All they did was get out. That's all they've done here. And you've seen this over and over again. And you can look at names that were doing it today, too. Take a look at Micron. And this was something that we actually traded today. And, uh, I'm probably going to do a video on this because these were really simple trades that people can learn. Uh, but we actually bought here. I forgot I had this up, but we bought here, and then we actually trimmed into this, and then added on a bar right in here. And I don't really trade the VWAP. I actually will kind of most of the times take the other side of the trade because too many retail are like, "Oh, look, it's over VWAP." If you do what everybody else does, you're going to get the results everybody else does. So anyway, if you, if you look at this, you can just see how we just trended up. And my thought was, I'm going to get to the top of here. And so as I'm trimming, as it's doing what it's doing, moving the stop up on the trail, I just said at the end of the day, I don't want to be around because I don't trust Intel because I don't like Intel. I think it's a pig. And I've been pretty vocal about that. I think in the future I might be wrong. Um, but not tonight. Um, which is actually good for me because it might give me an opportunity after everybody blows it out, but I'll get to that.
Anyway, so here SanDisk breaks down, flips over, retail does what? Panics, right? All right. And so it presents an opportunity. We got in. We got in off of this. Actually, I'll show you. We got in literally like right in here, right before that. And, uh, I was pretty happy with that. Actually, we bought that right over VWAP. But really, really why we bought it was the bar breaking out of this level. I'll show it to you really quickly on open, high, low, close, 'cause that's all we were using today. I was just, I was trying to teach open, high, low, close while I was trading. Um, you can just see the close over. That was the stop on the trade, and it never did it. We didn't have anything else up. I think I can cut that out and show it. That might be fun to watch. But the whole point of this was you're going to go back to this level. So then I just watched you went back to that level. All right. Well, I could trim up there, back down, goes back up, got out again, and then that was pretty much it. Got out in here somewhere on the rest of it. And the whole point of this was these are trades. I don't need to be around. You know, yesterday we bought this, and this is where I'm going with it. And then we're going to get to what I really need to get to here with this, um, where we bought this. And this was a really simple trade. All we did was just wait for the news to hit that double secret tariffs were off. That's all we did. We waited for them to come off, and you can see the bar literally right here at 2:30. Dent's favorite time of day, and that's where we put it all here. I'll show you that trade. Let's do that on a five, and we'll do it with the candles, 'cause that'll keep everyone's attention. But right off of this bar, it made so much sense. Um, and then where we were kicking was off the open because you're already up 10% in the day on a trade. And then we got back to where the call wall is, which is right up here. And I mean, it's not rocket science, guys. One, two, three here. Take a look at this. Want more educational videos? Just, just drop it in the comments, and I'll start doing them. Maybe we'll do Thursdays, and they'll be like trading videos. Uh, but the strength reports going really well on Wednesdays. I really like that video. People seem to enjoy those. Uh, and we're going to keep doing those. But let me, let me just get to this. So it hits pause, tariff pause. I just put that out there so people know. And it's just like, I'm long and strong. I'm closing the shorts because we were short. You know, when you start asking for a small piece of ice and you're afraid of Greenland like that, you're probably going to sell stocks. And then this is the swing, and that's how the alert looks when it goes out, and then it's just like I'm up, and then I'm trimming small into it. But that was the trade, and it was at 2:28 p.m.
Now, so that's going to take us into today. This will have other things in it because I just screenshotted it. But these were like the Micron trade. So you can see where I'm putting those in. But let me get to it. Uh, there's the silver trade. Um, and for Intel, what my point with Intel was, like, it's trading 100 times earnings, and you're supposed to earn. It was just insane. Anyway, um, the point that I just was saying, I was getting 50, I got out of the stop out of this 50%, and it's showing where I got out. I did get out of some, so we're clear. I did get out of some this morning at 110, 116, 119, um, and the rejection of 120 was pretty clear, and I'm showing that point of control to them. Now, the reason that's so important is because when we look at something like an NQ, people would say, "Well, there's no real reason that you have to get out of that," and they're 100% right. You know, that can 100% break out tomorrow. I don't want the risk, and I don't care if it breaks out tomorrow because you're in a trading market, not a trending market, right? We went through this with the NASDAQ, and that's why everything that I do, so you can understand how I view the world, is through the lens of index, sector, stock. Remember, I'm top-down. When I trade, everything I do is top-down, which means index, sector, stock. So when we hit this level of the point of control, and we hit where we were before we got Greenland, that's telling me like the index isn't breaking out. The stock's not breaking out of that area. I'm going into a weekend. I don't know what's going to happen. I'm up 20% in a name. Do you want that, or do you want to go for a ride? And there are the questions in a market like this that you have to ask yourself.
Now, that said, if we get into Intel, which I think we should spend a little time on here, and what's going on, this is what's happening. And I waited a little bit to record the other part of this so you could just see the damage that's going on. And so this is when we refer to where the guy just keeps on talking, and somebody just wants to yank him off stage with the big cane and say, "Stop talking." Um, and you can just see like, once you broke 50, that's where the algo was off that move. They really screwed up this call, and they really screwed up the earnings. Uh, they came out with the wrong earnings number. Stock sold down, scared everybody, and then they restated the number, and they reclarified it, and then it tried to rally, failed, and now you can see you're at 2720. Um, and this was one of the reasons why I got out of the way. And I was trying to explain to everybody like, I don't know what's going to happen with this. I know the government's throwing money at it left and right, but you're trading a hundred times earnings. So, this better be the mother of dragons of conference calls. Like, this better be the best thing. This better be the bees knees. It was not. U, where can this go to? You know, you probably can easily come down to that 44. I don't really think that's a stretch considering where you're at right now. This will take time to reset. People might look at this and say, "Oh, I want to play the bounce." They can do that 100%. It probably has something like that. I actually think that if you go watch the video from yesterday, which I'll link at the end of this, playing those names that I went over in that Wednesday video. I'm not going to recap it for time's sake. I would go and watch that video. I'll link it at the end and just scan through it super fast and go look at those names and go look at those levels because they're all marked off. They're the ones on the drop that are the strong ones that you're going to want to play with.
What do I think about this? I think it ties into looking at the socks too in the reversal, and you could see that they were getting out of the socks today, um, ahead of this, and I'm not overly surprised by that at all. What we really need to focus on here, and we're going to get into this on Saturday, is that when we start watching the market, the NDFI is actually gotten stronger. Right? So the NDFI, NASDAQ stocks above the 50-day. You know, on Tuesday, you were at a 45, got over 51. Tonight, you're at a 55, which is good. You're getting stronger. It's one of the stronger readings. If we look at the S5FI at the same time, that got a little weaker. So, if we go S5FI, and this is where it gets super interesting, I think it does. And we look at this, what do we have? We have our first real reversal in this. Now, for those that are new, that aren't aware of this indicator, um, it's something I created, and I've been using for years, but it's real simple. This is the 50-day off the S&P 500, right? Percentage, and then this is the NASDAQ 50-day. And all I'm doing is this. I'm just turning it into a line. And what that line does is when we get to a certain level, as you're going up, you're going to see the market sell off. When it peaks and starts coming down, that's when you're going to see the performance. So, if I took this for a second, I'll show you. I'll just do the, um, I'll do the NDX here. And then we'll take the NDX. And then from there, we'll just go here. Let's move that NDX up. And I like doing these like this. Uh, new paint above. Yay. And the reason I like doing them is because then people can just watch for themselves. So you'll see as you're kind of trending up, right? People say, "Well, it's still moving." Yeah, but look what happens once it starts to roll over. It starts to really go. It's that movement in here where you can actually even see how you went sideways, why it's up. And then as soon as it starts to roll over, what does it do? It breaks out. So when this starts to drop, and the percentage of the NASDAQ names is going up faster than the percentage of the S&P names, it's relative performance, right? So, as it's dropping here, it's the relative performance that keeps it going. So, you see how we're falling down when we had all that free, that freedom, winning liberation, and you can see how that's lifting, and then you see how it drops down in here, right? That's telling you that you're bottoming more than anything. Same exact thing here when it bottomed, right? And you're dropping, and then that is marking what the high. So, this is a really good indicator to tell you where possible lows might be, and then you want to see if they roll over, which they're doing, and then you're going from there. So, this might be one of those things where you have some kind of flush tomorrow because of Intel, and then people are like, "Oh, Intel." And then everyone just might wake up and go, "Okay, we're all really worried about Intel." And then they start realizing, why are they worried about Intel when you have other names out there that are just going, you know, absolutely ballistic. And I think that's really important for me.
The other thing that I would just focus on for tomorrow, and I think this was another thing that was really important. Let's drop this back to candlesticks. Um, I'm long silver, and this was a very easy, easy thing to see if you look at where you're at, and then we're coming in here, and then you just see what happened. You had an inside bar right in here. The body was completely inside that body, and then from there, this body just was inside that one until it broke out. Like this was such an easy trade today. Uh, to me, it was. I mean, it's those inside bars, and then when they start to move, you could just see how this followed through as well. I don't see how people don't buy more copper. How they don't buy more gold now with what's going on. There's too much uncertainty, and I don't think people are going to sit around and go, "Well, maybe, you know, maybe he's not going to do the tariff game anymore." I, I don't think that that's where we're going with this. A lot of people are going to want to watch Japan overnight. I think that's, that's overrated, but you never know. They are buying the treasuries into it. They are selling the dollar still, and I think that this was something that was also somewhat of a caution of mine. So, while I do think that you might get a good old-fashioned flush off of the Qs tomorrow because of Intel and the panic here, I don't know that you're going to get enough of that ump. But that might be, you know, this might actually hold that area, and we'll have to see that tomorrow. Again, if you're trying to get into the community, please look for the letter. There's a batch that goes out, and from that, that batch will have 48 hours from, uh, tonight. That is it.