Transcription
Do you want to win your fantasy football league? Like, actually do it this year? Well, you're in the right place. And here's like one of the biggest tips that people forget. You have to make less mistakes than your friends. Seems pretty obvious, but everybody's trying to be perfect at the perfect league winners. You don't have to be perfect. Just make less mistakes than your friends.
So, in this video, we're going to break down four players who will absolutely break your heart in fantasy football. You need to ignore them this year. They are going to be mistakes, and some of them are going to probably make you question everything. And one of those guys is first up right here, Trey McBride.
Now, if you know anything about my my my content, the other leagues that I'm in, the expert leagues, you know that Trey McBride, literally last year, was a big reason why I won the $10,000 to first Flock League, the most watched league in all of fantasy football. Trey McBride in round three was a big reason for that. He had a historic season, but it was a historic season. You don't have historic seasons back-to-back. He's likely due for regression for many reasons outside of just naturally.
Now, let's break it down. Had legitimately the best tight end season in terms of receptions we've ever seen last year. Most catches by a tight end. Was just piling on production. 126 catches, insane. 1,200 yards, insane. All these are number one. Yards after the catch, like if you look at a lot of stats, it would be hard-pressed. His own team throwing 41 times. Another reason why we'll talk about regression in a second. Number one in the NFL. Oh, yeah. Most air yards again amongst tight ends. Most targets with 169. I mean, this guy was literally producing like a top-five running back last year at the tight end position. We have not seen thing numbers like this since prime Rob Gronkowski, since maybe not even prime Travis Kelce, but those types of guys, right? That's how good he was last year.
And specifically when quarterback Jacoby Brissett took over for the final 14 games of the year due to a Kyler Murray injury, in those 14 games, 19.7 fantasy points per game for McBride compared to just 13. He took it to the next level. 10 targets per game. A lot of garbage time targets and production. 77 receiving yards per game. So, yes. Trey McBride was a beast last year. If you got him in round two or round three, he paid off, and he's going once again this year at the two-three turn. However, he didn't get no quarterback upgrade. It's still maybe, and I say maybe because we don't even know if it's Jacoby Brissett as of this recording.
And by the way, last year Jacoby Brissett threw at historic levels. Not only just for last year, did he easily lead the NFL, Jacoby Brissett, in overall pass attempts, right? Brissett last year, 35 pass attempts per game. The reason why this number isn't higher is because he came in a couple of games in relief. But, if you actually just looked at Jacoby Brissett's pass attempts per game in the games that he started and completed, you're talking about 41 pass attempts per game. 41 pass attempts per game would not only rank easily number one last year. It would rank in the borderline top 10 in NFL history. I do not think that's happening again.
You can see it right here. The Cardinals threw 649 times last year. A Bengals that is always known to throw the ball a ton and Joe Burrow's up there as well historically in pass attempts per game, threw 640, right? One of just four teams to hit the 600 mark, and the Cardinals are leading the way because their defense was injured, their defense stunk, they had to throw the ball a ton, their running back situation was abysmal as well with James Conner going down with injury and Trey Benson going down with injury. They literally every situation, running backs all get hurt, defense stinks, have to throw the ball. They hit every situation to have to pass 600 plus times.
And now, here's the deal because Jacoby Brissett might not be the quarterback this year. As you can see from Zane the Hobby over on Twitter, be sure to follow him. Whether we want it to happen or not, the Cardinals are going to play Carson Wentz in 2026 according to previous reports. He's their rookie third-round pick. You another tweet here from Donnie Druin. The Cardinals find themselves at a crossroad at the quarterback position. Do they have something in Carson Beck? Question mark. They have an incredibly short window to find out. The reason why they have an incredibly short window, odds are they're picking with one of the top picks in the NFL draft next year, a loaded class that has a lot of talented quarterbacks. They're probably going to take one of those guys, which makes it even more difficult to say like, we kind of have to get Carson Beck on the field cuz then we're never going to use the guy. And Jacoby Brissett specifically, well, he knows that he has leverage. He knows that the Cardinals are in this weird situation where they might not want to play Carson Beck this year, and he's saying, well, I want a contract extension. I was the quarterback last year. I'm going to be the quarterback this year. Odds are they find some sort of extension. I don't think he holds out into the season. He's probably going to show up to training camp. But, whatever it might be, there's now some like somewhat bad blood there. And either way, Jacoby Brissett's not an amazing quarterback. I'd be hard-pressed to believe he's going to start every game this year for the Cardinals.
Now, immediately that becomes an issue for Trey McBride in this overall offense if Jacoby Brissett is not throwing the ball as much, a trusted veteran you can get the ball to his top options like we saw last year. And if it's a rookie, Carson Beck, who's like a third-round pick, people thought they reached on him in the third round. In college, he had like good numbers. Like if you pull up Carson Beck's college numbers, you're going to be like, "Oh, yeah, this guy was pretty solid, right?" You're going to see the uh completion percentage and yards per attempt as a starter. 8.9, 9.5, 7.8, 74% completion, 72, 65. Yeah, he was playing at Georgia with some of the best wide receivers that were some really good wide receivers and tight ends during that time. Uh the best team in the country. He was playing against bad teams at at points. So, like, yeah. He was playing at Georgia. That's going to prop you up in college. So, that's one piece of it. The quarterback situation's a little unstable.
Number two is they drafted Jeremiah Love with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. This team is going to run the ball more this year just naturally, right? We showed you earlier, last year, they ranked the dead last in rush attempts per game, number one in pass attempts per game. Naturally, that has to come down. When you invest a top-five pick in a running back, you're probably going to also run the ball a little bit more. Also signed Tyler Allgeier, still have James Conner. This team is going to run the ball. They might not have the same quarterback. And oh, yeah, their defense should probably get a little bit better than what they were last year when they were all injured, meaning they're not going to have the as much garbage time to have to pass the ball all the time. We should also point out that Marvin Harrison was injured last year. Michael Wilson towards the end of the year started to come on. They signed Kendrick Bourne. So, like, Harrison's already calling to get more usage in this offense. Jeremiah Love's there. Michael Wilson showed he could break out last year, and he's going to be a piece of this offense. So, like, there's somewhat more target competition than there was at the beginning of last year when there was no number three option in Kendrick Bourne. Michael Wilson was not seen as a legitimate wide receiver in the NFL. And Marvin Harrison had a lot of question marks. So, in my opinion, it took a perfect all the stars aligned for Trey McBride to be a historic tight end last year. And he paid off a second-round draft price. I just don't see all those things happening again. There's a lot of reasons why it won't.
And the last reason why this should really be pointed out is Trey McBride currently goes in a similar range as Brock Bowers. They go within five picks of each other, both in like that second to third round turn. And Brock Bowers, in my opinion, way less target competition. Like, Trey Tucker and Jaylen Nailor are Brock Bowers' biggest target competition. In my opinion, Brock Bowers has a better play caller in Clint Kubiak. And right now, I would say give him the edge for quarterback situation being better.
All right. Now, the next situation we have to talk about is Terrace Marshall and a guy that I loved last year, a guy that really was solid as a rookie. I mean, he won Offensive Rookie of the Year for a reason, former first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers. But right now, I think he's going to be one of my favorite fades this year, and let's break it down. It's exactly why is because where he goes in drafts, so let's talk about it.
So, last year McMillan, like as a rookie wide receiver, you sign up for this all day. 25% target share, was the clear alpha, top 12 in targets with 122, that's 7.2 per game. The guy was very solid, right? 1,200 air yards, um went out there and just put up a good year. 1,000 yards as a rookie, 70 catches, seven touchdowns, and uh he he was all solid, right? 14 and 1/2 yards per catch. Overall, was a solid like fourth, fifth-round pick in fantasy drafts, and I think he paid that off. He didn't win you leagues, but he paid that off. He wasn't detrimental. And now heading into this year, it's not like there's a lot of target competition added. I mean, we'll talk about the target competition added. It wasn't much. So, you would think I'm higher on McMillan, but I'm not because of a couple of reasons and his draft cost.
So, let's talk about the Carolina Panthers this offseason, right? Um in terms of the wide receiver room, like they signed John Metchie. Maybe he'll be something, we'll see, right? and then in the NFL draft in the third round, they signed Chris Brazell, who's a speedster downfield. I actually like Chris Brazell. I think he could play a role in this offense. But as Chris Wesseling points out on Twitter right here, Dave Canales on new Panthers wide receiver Chris Brazell, "Brazell's vertical presence can take the top off of the defense and create space for Terrace Marshall, Xavier Legette, and Jaylen Hogan underneath." Uh Chris Wesseling kind of summarizes it by saying, "Sounds like Brazell is the cardio guy for this offense, uh but they really did need someone to play with some serious speed." So, I'm not expecting Chris Brazell to like threaten Terrace Marshall's number one status, not even threaten Jaylen Hogan as number two. And I think Xavier Legette probably continues to start over Chris Brazell as of right now. So, when you look at the starting wide receiver room, if Brazell does start on the bench, which I think he does, it's the exact same as last year. McMillan, Xavier Legette, Jaylen Hogan. I do think Jaylen Hogan continues to impress and take steps forward. So, like McMillan dominated this target share last year for seven targets a game with 25% target share. I honestly think he's probably going to do that again this year. The problem for McMillan has nothing to do with his skillset. That's the whole point. He doesn't have target competition or elite target competition. He has a great skill set, so what is the big issue?
Well, the big issue is Bryce Young because he's still going to be the Panthers quarterback this year and I just really can't find a reason to really believe in Bryce Young. Whether it's just his his size, whether it's his his accuracy. The guy like last year had the best year of his career in a while and he barely threw for 3,000 yards. He completed barely 63% of his passes and that was the best year of his career in a while and still despite all of that, he's still ranking 24th in quarterback efficiency. He's still ranking 21st in QBR. He's having a ton of not catchable passes. A great tweet here from Scott Barrett says, "The entire argument for or against Terrace Marshall McMillan revolves around Bryce Young." That's kind of the picture I'm painting here as well. Young cleared 207 passing yards only three times last year. McMillan averaged 105 yards per game in those passing environments. For perspective, the Cowboys hit that mark 207 yards in 15 out of 17 games with Lamb averaging 80 yards per game. So, this tweet is actually in favor of McMillan. It's saying that if Bryce Young can start throwing for 220 to 250 passing yards per game, McMillan should average close to 100 if not more than 100 receiving yards per game. But, I think one, that's a small sample of three games. I don't think he's going to average over 100 yards per game when his team's only throwing for 207 for his entire career. That'd be crazy. And two, I just don't see Bryce Young taking that leap. We keep saying he's going to take the leap. It's not like they got him any new weapons compared to last year to take that leap.
So, Terrace Marshall McMillan who currently goes at the end of the third, beginning of the fourth round, I just can't take him there. Especially when you see who's going next to him. Ladd McConkey, better quarterback situation, better offensive environment for sure. I'll take him. Garrett Wilson, I would say better quarterback situation in my opinion and I would also say better clear number one cut wide receiver in his offense. I like his offense better. And across positions, Josh Jacobs a clear number one running back. We'll see what happens with the legal matters as of this recording. He's playing week one. Clear workhorse on his team in a really good offense where they're going to prioritize running the ball. The guys in this range make it really difficult for me to see Terrace Marshall McMillan and be like, "Yeah, that's where I'm spending my late third, early fourth round pick."
And before we keep going to another wide receiver people are over-drafting and this one might surprise you. I just want to let you know about the Fantasy Blueprint. It is out right now and it is my proven system to help you win more of your fantasy leagues. The Blueprint has helped over 10,000 people the last few years alone win more in their fantasy leagues. It helped me win 75% of my leagues last year, including the Flock League and Experts League, the most watched league in the world, over $10,000 to first I was able to win. And I was 14 and 2, scored the most points, all that because of using the Blueprint, not only for my draft, but every week of the season. It helps you from draft day to championship week. Now, if you want to learn more about the Fantasy Blueprint, you can check it out with the link in the description below. There'll be a video answering a bunch of questions on there, or it's it's jointheblueprint.com. now. It has a lot of info here on exactly what you get, testimonials from a bunch of people as well. And you can just learn more here at jointheblueprint.com. There are limited spots available, so if you do want to smack around your friends this year, right now is the time to get in. It is not just for your draft. It will help you for your draft a ton, you'll dominate your draft, and then it helps you every single week of the season all the way to championship week. Check it out at jointheblueprint.com. Get it right now.
Now, that wide receiver that I hinted at that people are loving this year, and I'm a little bit lukewarm on, if not I'm fading him full on where he's going, is Emeka Egbuka. Look, the guy had a really nice season, but people are focused on those first five weeks year. I I won't lie to you. As a rookie, especially when he was competing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last year, if you were if I was to tell you he'd finish top 10 in the NFL on wide receiver targets, obviously that's a productive season. 127 targets, seven and a half per game, a 24% target share was top 10 in the NFL. All of this for him in his rookie season to go out there, catch 63 balls, 936 38 yards, and six touchdowns. He without a doubt was way better than expectations. Even in like the most sharp fantasy leagues he was going as like a seventh-round pick, in most leagues an eighth and ninth, maybe even a 10th-round pick last year because he had target competition in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and even Jaylen McMillan. But no, what happened? Emeka Egbuka broke out relative to expectations. But it really was just those first five games, because then his own injuries and Baker Mayfield's injuries piled up, and he couldn't really take on the mantle when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin got hurt, when more defensive back competition or or higher defensive backs, more skilled guys were looking at him.
If you look at this year, the first five games of the year on the right side of the screen, 20 fantasy points per game, unsustainable production as a top top receiver. A lot of that banking on big plays, a couple of big plays, a broken play touchdown and touchdowns in general. He had five touchdowns in his first five games in the NFL. The final 12 games, when he dealt with injuries, when Baker Mayfield dealt with injuries, when his wide receiver room dealt with injuries, so the defensive attention was more on him in the defensive game plan, just 7.7 fantasy points per game. Obviously drops off a cliff. Well, we can't fully blame him for all that. Again, he was a rookie wide receiver dealing with his own injuries, dealing with his quarterback injuries, and then all of a sudden becoming the number one some weeks because Mike Evans and Chris Godwin weren't 100%.
>> Also have to point out the fact that Baker Mayfield has now been paid. He's no longer in these contract years. Baker Mayfield last year, despite dealing with injuries of course, he wasn't 100%. He battled through them and he played all 17 games. He wasn't 100% out there. But at the end of the day, Baker Mayfield, we'll pull this up right here momentarily, was not nearly as good as he was the year before that when he earned some of those contracts. He goes from having in 2024 71% completion percentage, 4,500 yards, career high-type numbers, to then falling to 3,600 yards, 63% completions, a lot more uncatchable passes, a lot more stalled drives for this offense. Oh yeah, by the way, this offense once again, for the fifth time in five years, has a brand new play caller and offensive coordinator. So just no cohesiveness, no gel. It's going to probably take a couple of weeks to get that thing going as well. Not great.
Now, when you look at what this offseason was for the Tampa Bay Bucs, you can see here in the team changes tracker, one of the tools that you get inside the Fantasy Blueprint, they lost Mike Evans. So obviously a big piece lost, and they only brought in a third round pick in Ted Hurst. So the wide receiver room is going to be Chris Godwin once again, Amari Cooper, and no more Mike Evans. Jalen McMillan will most likely be a starter now. Cade Otton still there at tight end. So like in theory, Amari Cooper last year, who dominated the first five weeks of the season, he should see a bigger role. And he's going to see a bigger role without Mike Evans in this offense. There's no doubt about it. Will he be the number one wide receiver? That's a question we'll find out. Like I feel I still think Chris Godwin on paper should have that role. But at the end of the day, if if if if Amari Cooper is going as the 38th or 39th overall player, meaning a third or a fourth round pick, I just can't have this. Like I can't have a shaky quarterback situation, a new play caller. I don't even know if he's the number one in this offense, right? When Garrett Wilson is the clear number one in his offense. When Ladd McConkey, in my opinion, is a clear number one in his offense. When Josh Jacobs is the clear number one running back in his offense. And these guys go all around Ameka Egbuka. I'd rather just wait. Like, you could literally wait, let's see, 15 like uh picks later and start getting DJ Moore, the number one in his offense. Christian Watson, the number one in his offense. Cornell Tate is going 22 picks later, the number one in his offense. Like, why are we taking Ameka Egbuka in round three to four when there's other guys who, in my opinion, are even better picks 15 to 20 picks later?
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Okay, next up, let's talk about Albert Okwuegbunam, a tight end who obviously, as a rookie, we're talking about a lot of second year players here for good reason. Who as a rookie, he was pretty good, but a lot of the things that made him great are not going to be there this year. Let's just start with this. He was awesome, right? Not expecting this as like a third round tight end. He ends up going out there and ranking top five in targets amongst tight ends with 6.7 per game. He has a top five target share. He has a good year. I mean, 72 catches, great for a rookie tight end, especially a third round pick. 731 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Amongst tight ends, these were all in like the top five. He was an absolute mega producer. Um second amongst tight ends in target rate, the percentage of targets he had per route run, he was awesome last year. However, like I said, a lot of those things that made him awesome last year, lack of target competition, really no target share, that's kind of gone this year. Because although the Browns lost Evan Engram, his biggest competition at the position in free agency, what did they bring in and replace him with? Well, check this out. First round pick Casey Washington, a stud wide receiver in my opinion, like you could have argued he was the best wide receiver in this class, at least route running wise, he's a beast. And second round pick Denzel Boston, who easily could have been a first round pick. So, in my opinion, you're getting two first round talents entering this wide receiver room. And oh yeah, the wide receiver room as of this recording still has Jerry Jeudy. So, you get Jerry Jeudy, a proven veteran, you get two stud rookie wide receivers now coming in. Marvin Mims has a lot more target competition year this year than he did last year when those two rookies weren't there, when he was basically competing with Isaiah Bond, Cedric Tillman, and like a banged up Jerry Jeudy.
Now, the other concern for Marvin Mims is the quarterback situation didn't improve. It's still DeShawn Watson, who right now is the leading candidate, the odds-on favorite to be the top quarterback, who oh yeah, the last time that we actually saw him being a quarterback, it wasn't great. And he's had two Achilles tears since then, an Achilles tear and a re-injury to it. Oh, Shedeur Sanders is going to be maybe your next best option. 1,400 yards last year in eight games and a ton of interceptions and bad plays, not great. Rookie Taylen Green, Dylan Gabriel, like none of these quarterbacks are saving the day. A Browns offense that whoops, a Browns offense that last year ranked second to last in passing yards per game. The Browns last year only averaged 165 passing yards per game. I don't see a reason why that's going to go up this year. Like, I I they're just going to go out there, this offense is going to lean on Quinsahwn Jenkins, and that's it. They're going to spread the ball around more now. If they actually do improve as an offense, it's because of these guys, Casey Washington and Denzel Boston, not really Marvin Mims taking a step forward in my opinion.
So, Marvin Mims opened up the summer going in like the sixth or seventh rounds of fantasy drafts. He's dropped a little bit since then, but it's not like he's dropped a ton. Like, this guy goes in the eighth round of fantasy drafts a lot right now. Who's he going next to? Ricky Pearsall, he's going next to. Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman, give me these guys. I mean, Kyle Pitts goes after Marvin Mims right now as the clear number two in his offense, and in my opinion, that's a better quarterback situation. That's a better overall offensive environment. Um just give me these guys instead of Harold Landry. So, these are four players that you need to avoid this year. You just need to avoid these mistakes so you can actually win your league.
Now, if you want to see the players that I'm betting everything on this year, it's the opposite of this video, the guys that you want to be getting, you want to be prioritizing, you can check out this video right here. I think it will help you out a ton.