Transcription
This happens every single year. We watch 18 weeks of football, go through the draft for agency, and then reset our memory and draft players much higher or lower than where they finished this past season. Is it right? Is it wrong? That's what this episode is all about.
Seven plus wide receivers that you all, yes you, are drafting with insane confidence. The premise here, Hayden, we're going to name a bunch of wide receivers who are selected much earlier than where they finished last year, and vice versa. So, let's start with that group, okay?
And the leadoff man is Justin Jefferson, who was drafted as the wide receiver six right now over an underdog and finished last year as the wide receiver 37. Does that make sense to you?
>> Yeah, I think that Justin Jefferson is going to ball out again. I think Kyler Murray is definitely a good enough quarterback to get the ball to Justin Jefferson. And from 2022 to 2024, uh, he had the most PPR points per game at 20. And most of you guys are drafting in full PPR. Uh, and that's if we remove the Josh Dobs and Jiren Hall games, uh, he's averaging 100 yards per game.
So, like, it's really just came down to how bad JJ McCarthy was, which makes me feel very confident that Kyler Murray is going to easily win this job. I think, more or less, they've already come out and said that. And Justin Jeff—nothing's changed about Justin Jefferson. Nothing's changed about Kevin O'Connell. And Kyler Murray wants to throw the ball back shoulders, downfield passes. Uh, that's what Kyler Murray wants to do. It's what Kevin O'Connell wants to do. And it's what Justin Jefferson is. Is so good at. Like, I think we're just going to, like, throw out 2025, put in the baseline from the other seasons. Could Kyler Murray be as good as Kurt Cousins? Of course. Uh, and I'm drafting him in the first round.
>> Yeah. I mean, he finishes the wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold, then finishes the wide receiver five in points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins. So, it was nothing in terms of Kevin O'Connell putting him in a position of success or failure last year that led him to the wide receiver 37. It was just all about the quarterback play. Like, that—that was the big change here.
Again, pointing out some things that Reeves noted: He commanded 30% of his team targets last year, wide receiver 4; 39% of the team's air yards. That's wide receiver 5. And yet that equal to wide receiver 37 season because of environment.
I actually went back and watched those Nick Mullins games that they played together in terms of homework for this because I thought, "Okay, we know what he did with Darnold, and we know what he did with Cousins. What can he even do with a quarterback at a tier below that, but also perform better than J.J. McCarthy?" That was my mindset heading into that. That may be stupid transitional properties, but that's—that's what I'm—
>> I like it.
>> And what I learned is that a quarterback, in order to have success in this offense, and especially success with Justin Jefferson, is you have to throw into tight windows. You have to stand tall versus pressure; you need to play on time; and you need to trust the plan of the play, throwing with anticipation into zone windows. And if you do all that stuff, then you're going to have success, and you're going to have Justin Jefferson just making freaking plays for you.
And simply put, JJ McCarthy could not do that last season. Kyler Murray—and we talked about a wide receiver that was attached to him last season—it can be up and down with some of that stuff in terms of standing tall and, you, know, not falling away from throws and playing on time. But I also believe that KOC, while the three names that we mainly mentioned there, like pure pocket, read it out players and throw with anticipation, uh, will also accentuate the strengths that Kyler Murray does have and does bring to the table. And I think, obviously, Justin Jefferson's talent is moldable and feasible enough that he is absolutely worth this end of the first round draft pick that we're spinning in.
>> And Kyler, he has had 88 yards per game seasons with DeAndre Hopkins, another 80-yard season with DeAndre Hopkins. Trey McBride had 72 yards per game. So, like, Kyler Murray, for—has for his flaws—has elevated, uh, players to like really high-end degrees. Last year was really bad with Marvin Harrison, Mu, uh, Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride, obviously. But you go back and watch even the first couple games of the season last year, and I mean, if Marvin Harrison caught the football like this, the stat lines would look a whole lot better, and obviously Justin Jefferson will.
So, I think that Kyler Murray—I think this is going to be like the floor—and I think it's actually a very similar situation to when Sam Darnold got with Kevin O'Connell, and that was the floor of Sam Darnold. And here comes Kyler Murray, and it's going to be an excellent season, to the point I think Kyler Murray is like the sleeper quarterback, if you will, who has a chance to be a top five fantasy quarterback that gets drafted like quarterback 12. Uh, this is a great environment. This has been the case for like four or five seasons in a row.
It >> It really is as simple as if you trust the environment and don't get concerned with everything flying around you and just make the throws that you planned all week on time and in rhythm, then you're going to have success in this offense. And so, again, it comes down to the KOC Josh coaching of it all here with Kyler a little bit. But I am believing that it is possible, and it's going to be much closer to the wide receiver six outcome, and maybe even ahead of that, versus the wide receiver 37 in points per game outcome that they got last year.
All right, another one and another big topic here. Uh, he finished as the wide receiver 45 last year, but now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 31. This is Brian Thomas Jr. What are your expectations for 2026?
>> I think it's going to be pretty volatile week to week because it does seem like he's going to be the vertical element in this offense. I got him ranked wide receiver 30, so I think he should be ranked ahead of where he finished last year. I got him—I'm pretty much in line in ADP here. Uh, I think that Parker Washington is going to get a lot of like the gimme looks. Jacobe Myers is going to run across the middle and get drilled by safeties and linebackers, and then Brian Thomas will have some YAC moments, but for the most part, will be used down the field in half PPR or half PPR baseball. We don't mind that. In full PPR, uh, redraft leagues, uh, might be a little bit frustrating for us, but Brian Thomas has been lighting it up in camp. If you go read Shipley, he's been like one of the MVPs of the offense. Uh, Liam Cohen's talked glowingly about him.
And if we zoom back out, wide receivers who drafted in the first round with his speed, who went from—who went to LSU, who had his rookie season—these are some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. I know last year was a complete disaster. Playing through multiple injuries, uh, was not playing confident over the middle. Obviously, the timing, everything was bad. And all those narratives were true.
>> And still, he's one of the most talented wide receivers on the football field. Him watching or him pulling away from the DBs, it's like ridiculous to watch. So, I think for the most part, I'm taking an optimistic look here. I don't think he's going to have, you know, 95 receptions in a season, though.
>> Truly one of the fastest players in the league. Like, he ranks up there in GPS every single year. It's funny, typically when we talk about disaster seasons, it means the team also had a disaster year, and that's the exact opposite. Like, the Jaguars were freaking awesome in terms of expectations on previous years. Uh, and then Brian Thomas was like the letdown piece of it all.
You mentioned John Shipley. We're a fan favorite of John Shipley here. Uh, this is what he wrote: "The Jaguars scheme focused more on intermediate passing last season than it did in any other year in Lawrence's career as quarterback, and the Jaguars tried to force the issue with Thomas in the department a year ago. They entered the year with plans to funnel the entire passing game through him, but drops were an issue over the middle of the field until they adjusted his role by the second half of the season."
And I totally agree. I mean, you can watch that Bengals tape if you want to, but I watched, you know, all 30 targets that he had over the middle of the field, and he was tentative. It was kind of Jordan Tysonish in some ways where he would like fall down after the catch, alligator arm it, not come up with these big-time catches. Um, and that just comes down to, you know, his pre-season injury, and it mentally impacted him through the entire year.
Now, in that absence, and what we know about Liam Cohen's offense dating back to the time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is like the crossing routes over the middle field in the intermediate portion is the most consistent element here. And so, in BTJ's absence, that became Jacobe Myers, that became Parker Washington, who Shipley projects as the player who was going to lead this team in receiving this year.
It is just fascinating to me that in year three, here we are, and this is a player who was at the one-two turn last year, then finishes the wide receiver 45, and now we're back somewhat in the middle, but not really as wide receiver 31. And it's kind of tough for me to totally know what the outcome is here, other than it's probably going to be the more high-variance, downfield, shot-ish stuff as you brought up initially.
>> Yeah, I think the other big thing with Jacksonville is the two tight end looks, and if that's going to be more of a balanced kind of offense, I do think that Brian Thomas is going to be on the field for those two wide receiver sets, especially if you're going to do a bunch of play-action deep shots. Like, you have to have somebody that can stretch the field, and obviously he's one of the best field stretchers in the game. So, I do think that he's going to be a near full-time player in the offense. I think Jacobe and Parker and Travis Hunter, those guys will rotate. That does not mean Brian Thomas is going to lead this team in receptions; it is certainly possible. Uh, but I do think the hundred-yard games—there will be many of them for Brian Thomas this year. It might be difficult for us to predict half PPR baseball. I really like the price, and then, uh, we'll see where he is in like the Yahoo drafts, and, uh, I think that I will have some interest there just betting on. Year three player, really fast, really good prospect, sensational rookie season. Uh, just buying the dip. I do want to bring up he was going 12th overall this time last year. Is that 12th overall player still there?
>> It would require him to work over the middle like you said. It's a very important part of this offense. Think about Chris Godwin and like those type of guys. You have to be able to do that. Last year was really bad at it. I think, in theory, like three years from now, we can say like he's a full, full router player. Um, it's possible. I don't think it's most likely, but it's possible.
>> Yeah. I—I think it's not impossible, but closer to that in that exactly what I said and what we heard all last offseason was that the passing game is going to funnel through BTJ, and it makes sense after his rookie year. And that just doesn't have to be the case now because at that time Parker Washington had not broken out. They had not made the Jacob Myers trade. You know, they had taken Travis Hunter, but we didn't know exactly what his role would be on offense. We found out in the opening four weeks of the year that it was somewhat minimal and scripted and designed.
So, I think they kind of got to a point where Brian Thomas Jr., uh, showed that he should not have the passing game funneled through him, but that doesn't mean he's going to be unproductive. And we also know that the seasons can be very freaking long. And he also showed extreme talent during his rookie year. So, the upside is even higher than this wide receiver 31 outcome here, too.
>> I mean, Alec Pierce was a field stretcher only. And then this last season did a whole lot more in the other parts of the field. Like, there is player development that happens, at least. George Pickkins was a one-dimensional guy, and then this last year, uh, started showing more. So, like, I think the baseline case is like he will be better working over the middle than he was the previous season.
I also think that Brian Thomas, on some of the screens, and remember some of like the little jet plays that they would have with Brian Thomas, like shallow crosses as a rookie, he would catch those things and be 60-yard touchdowns, and it looked like an alien out there. So, like, I—I do think there's some of that potential in Brian Thomas. So, I think he clearly has the most upside of anybody in this Jacksonville offense, uh, at ADP. I just, like you said, you can't be confident it's like going to happen.
>> Sorry to keep harping on this, but I—I do think it's again such a drastic conversation that we had a year ago. He was being selected around names like Puka Nakua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, AJ Brown at wide receivers. Are we at the point now when we talk about high variance, more of a downfield threat, open it up for everyone else, that he is more heading into this year in the vein of Jameson Williams and like the peak of what we thought like Gabe Davis could be as this like week-to-week roller coaster? Like, have—have we just changed the narrative around Brian Thomas Jr. that much in one offseason?
>> Yeah, that's—I mean, I think that's probably a fair, fair point. Like, the guys I have him right next to is Carnell Tate, Alec Pierce, Quinton Johnson, Jordan Addison, Marvin Harrison. Like, those guys are all, to me, it's the same type of player. I think Brian Thomas is the most talented of all of those guys, then that's why I rank him the highest, but he's not like as well-rounded as, you know, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, Christian Watson, who I think have just established that they're doing it. So, I think that we've grouped these guys together properly. Um, and then it's just like, "All right, we're flipping coins, year three breakout, like how real is this?" Like, him versus, you know, uh, Marvin Harrison, Parker, Washington, like those guys. I—I do think that his—his athletic ceiling is like so much higher than those guys that I want to draft him.
>> Yeah. But at the same time, when he was on the field with all those guys last year, his target share was much lower, albeit his targets were further down the field. I would love a Christian Watson-like trajectory for him. That'd be amazing. You know, we saw the early parts of Christian Watson's career where he was hitting on all the high variance stuff, and he was running extremely hot. And I think you could argue with M. Jones that was kind of happening with Brian Thomas Jr. a little bit during his rookie year. And then what we saw last year from Christian Watson, albeit off injury, was much more of a complete player, a third down presence, someone who ran out routes and plays at the sticks much more often. And if BTJ can kind of, you know, develop into that too, I think it's a possibility, and that would be awesome.
>> So, just at his ADP, are you kind of in, or you kind of out?
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I am. I just, it was more of like a theoretical, entire conversation about him right now. Now, you know me, I'm drafting a lot of Christian Watson, who is in that area.
>> Roma Dunay is right before him. Carnell Tate I'm drafting. Uh, and then it's BTJ, and then is Tyler Warren. So, this is again one of these cluster of pick areas where I want almost all these names, and then I get to other sections of drafts where I don't want any of the players in about a 12-pick stretch.
>> And then, like, I love all those like borderline elite quarterbacks that get drafted right at him. So, I think, like, among wide receivers, I like him where he's being ranked. I think, versus, you know, some of these quarterbacks and stuff, I think I can be swung. This is in half PPR, obviously. Full PPR things kind of change a little bit. So, um, I'm really excited. I—I think there's—there's still a ton of potential with Brian Thomas. And I do think we could look back and be like, "Yeah, it was probably his collarbone being on sideways was the reason why he didn't want to get hit over the middle." And I think we would say, "Yeah, that makes sense."
>> And once again, he is the first Jaguars wide receiver off the board.
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All right, let's jump back up the board and let's talk Devonte Smith. He finished last year as the wide receiver 31, now being drafted as the wide receiver 11. Obviously, we can say, "Well, AJ Brown's gone." Of course, that's why he's jumping from wide receiver 31 to wide receiver 11. I want you to go a bit deeper than that. Why should this ADP still make sense for us?
>> Okay. So, he had a really good rookie season, and then since then, he's had five games without AJ Brown. He's the wide receiver three in yards per game. That's at 89 yards per game. On wide receiver, 10 targets, that's nine per game. So, we're talking about very small sample size here, but in that sample size, Devonte Smith proves that he's been one of the best wide receivers, and it's only just been about the target volume.
I feel pretty optimistic about the new OC that they bring in. It's going to be a lot of the Packer stuff, which is not that dissimilar to what Jalen Hurts is running. Jalen Hurts wants to be and play like Jordan Love down the football field. I think that's very good for Devonte Smith. Smith can play inside and outside. He is one of the best wide receivers in the football league. And I just think that the targets are actually going to come, uh, with him.
So, uh, obviously there's some risk just because of how bad the Jalen Hurts season was this last season, but, uh, I think that this is going to be easily the number one season he's ever had in targets in all categories. And I—I view him as a quality pick in the third round. It can't go any higher than that, but I think where he's being drafted is totally fine.
>> Without AJ Brown on the field, as you pointed out, he's had 37% of the team's targets, 2.36 yards per route run. Now you could say, "Well, when AJ Brown is out, they didn't have a talent like Mai Lemon on the roster. Maybe even not like a Dante Wix level talent at the wide receiver room, too." So, uh, now they do. Now they have even more players and Eli Sters and other ones that are other options here for Devonte Smith.
>> I mean, it is like clockwork, though, where news that we all expect to happen still impacts ADP somehow in the public. I mean, he jumped from the 31st overall player to the 28th overall player, and that made him the wide receiver 14 to now the wide receiver 11 just based on AJ Brown getting traded when we all knew AJ Brown was going to get traded.
>> Yeah. Um, it's less to me about Devonte Smith and more just about a functional offense. Like, the more this running game can get going, and it doesn't have to be to the degree that 2024 was.
>> But let's get back to, you know, league average in a lot of ways too, in terms of success rate, explosive plays, all that stuff. Then that just changes the math in the passing game.
>> Yeah. And what Jalen Hurts has shown in the past is when you change the math in terms of the back end and single high safeties, then he is going to generate explosive plays down the field. And Devonte Smith, even in games that AJ Brown has played, has looked like the better wide receiver in certain matchups because he is a ball winner. He plays huge. He plays so long, and if he gets one-on-one coverage, he's going to be their go-to man in that department.
So, we can talk about the, you know, change in the offensive coordinator and all that stuff. I am so focused on just having a good rushing attack and how that's going to impact the passing game success that, to me, that is like how this entire thing is going to get much closer to the top level offenses that we've seen in the Eagles in somewhat recent years.
>> Last thing to remember: Eagles last season, Lane Johnson missed a big chunk of it. Landon Dickerson nearly had to retire, and you watch Landon Dickerson, his back is just like he was not nearly the same athlete. And then I think you just can tie it back how many snaps, how many runs they had during that—that Super Bowl run the following season—that like their bodies just like did not have enough time to recover. And hopefully, uh, this year, after not making it far in the playoffs at all, uh, that they should just be healthier right now. And I think that's a huge deal for a quarterback that plays like Jalen Hurts does.
One more who's being selected much earlier than where he finished last year. And I can't wait for this conversation. That's Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts. Finished last year as the wide receiver 56 in points per game. Let's also remember where the Colts finished offensively. And now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 43. Where are we at with Josh Downs, and how his role can grow, and if the Colts can maintain their level of success like they did last year?
I mean, there's really no excuses for him to not play more. Just looking at the depth chart, like you remove Michael Pitman, and all of a sudden, like it needs to be Josh Downs. And we got a report: "Gone are the days of Downs being used as a slot receiver. Stiken plans to move Downs all across the formation, which he typically already does, giving him ample opportunities to play on the outside and exploit mismatches against opposing defenses. Downs was seen on the outside plenty of times already at mandatory mini camp making plays no matter which quarterback was targeting the offense." That comes from Sports Illustrated.
So, there's at least some evidence that he's going to be playing in two wide receiver sets. And if he does play in two wide receiver sets, this ADP is just straight up wrong. Especially because Alec Pierce is very clearly in the middle of a rehab, uh, for a surgery he did not want to have, and it was a little bit delayed. So, uh, if Alec Pierce has a step back, big news for Josh Downs. If Josh Downs just plays two wide receiver sets, that's big news. If we get both those things together, he's going to be one of the best wide receiver picks out there. And, um, he's not like the traditional, like, wide receiver, like slot wide receiver. Like, he makes some serious plays down the football field. I'm sure that you're going to bring those up.
>> I mean, I want to believe in Josh Downs so much. The passing game revolved around him at UNCC when he was attached to Drake May during that time, right? And he was like a slot-plus receiver. He was winning down the field. He was winning in isolation. He was great in zone coverage, too. But obviously, at his frame, at his size at 5'9", 171, as soon as you enter the NFL, you are pigeonholed as a player because everyone does it.
What I am afraid of, and I went back and, you know, Reeves has talked about this: Josh Downs has only run 33 routes in one or two receiver sets in his entire career so far.
>> Yeah. Not good. So, I didn't want to go and watch those 33 routes because he might not even be targeted in those options. Instead, last year, because this is, you know, a Daniel Jones and Shane Steichen operation, I went back and watched his 16 targets listed as an outside wide receiver. Unfortunately, even when you're listed as an outside receiver, sometimes that means you are motioned into a stack. Other times, it also means a tight end or a wide receiver is motioned outside of you. So, the leverage changes at the time of the snap. And so, it's not true, like, on-the-ball pure outside two wide receiver stuff. And he's still going to move around even if he earns two wide receiver things.
I was a bit nervous about what I saw just because it still felt like in those moments Shane Steichen didn't want for him to operate as like a real wide receiver. He had a 5.4 AOT. It was, you know, some screen passes. It was speed outs. It really was nothing, nothing down the field. So, on paper, he should, no matter what, get two wide receivers at stuff. That is the first bar to clear. And even if he clears that, I think this ADP easily is undervaluing him. I do have some level of question that he's going to be highly successful with that. But at the same time, I believe in him, and I want him to be successful because I do think he is maybe one of the more not overlooked but underused wide receivers across the league. But at the same time, I also will know why it didn't work if it doesn't work.
>> Yeah. I mean, he's just—he's drafted ahead of where he was this last season, rightfully so, but I do think there is a just ceiling to his game because of the size, and, you know, like we've—we've kind of hoped that Downs would kind of grow into this role, uh, that we're—we might be getting this year. Jeten Reed, it's been the same way. So, like, it would not be that surprising if he's not out there for all of them. Uh,
>> But like he goes around ahead of Michael Pitman, for example, and we know what Michael Pitman is, uh, and how he—and we will talk about Michael Pitman here in a moment, right? Um, he's going ahead of Jacobe Meyers, who really brought, you know, stability to the Jaguars. So, it's not like we are getting, to me, Josh Downs at much of a discount, per se. Like, we are still having to invest a premium wide receiver pick in him where there are more stable options around, but I would still take him ahead of someone like Xavier Worthy, for example, who is going two wide receiver spots after him.
>> Could you go up to the depth, uh, knockdown? And there should be a wide receiver/tight end. I'm curious because he's the third, uh, tight, uh, wide receiver/tight end. So, we have Alec Pierce is the second, uh, Colt. If you go to the third option, I'm guessing Downs is one of the first third options we're drafting in fantasy. And that makes me a little bit nervous. Um,
>> Just because we're—we're trying to get a lot of things right. He is. So,
>> It's Roma Dunay, Jaden Reed, and then Josh Downs is the next one.
>> Yeah, my—my ranking is pretty close in ADP, and that's with me, um, assuming that he's going to play a lot more snaps than he ever has, uh, and discounting with the Alec Pierce stuff. Um, it's—it, to me, it's just still hard to get to like the Quinton Johnson upside that's going around ahead. Like, I think that's going to be a full-time player working on the football field in a pass-first offense, and I'm not sure if we're going to be able to say all those things with Josh Downs. So, I like him; don't love him.
Well, you made a great transition for me, which, by the way, we've already covered the likes of Lad Mani, who is drafted as the wide receiver 17, finished as the wide receiver 35. Terry McLaren, drafted as the wide receiver 23, finished as the wide receiver 32. Luther Burton, drafted as the wide receiver 21, finished as the wide receiver 54. So, if you want to hear more about those names, we have them in other videos. So, click those and watch them right after this.
But you talked about Quinton Johnson. So, let's have another one of these conversations because he's the exact opposite. He's drafted much later than where he finished last year, where that was as the wide receiver 22 in points per game, and now you can get him as the wide receiver 38 in drafts. Does that make sense to you?
>> No, I think this is an absolute no-brainer selection. I think, just zooming back out with Quinton Johnson, I had him as a second-round, uh, prospect who needed development. His rookie season was really bad. His last season was certainly better, and he was doing real stuff. And then this year, I'm expecting the offense to go from about league average to one of the best in the NFL. And if you go listen to our Reeves episode, he was talking about, you know, Justin Herbert might be the dang MVP because the Shanahan branch, whenever they have an elite quarterback, they go absolutely crazy.
So, uh, we've seen the new OC really talk glowingly about Quinton Johnston. Another big point I wanted to bring up is, uh, Justin Herbert's, uh, footwork has changed where now his left foot is in front, which just makes, uh, like the quick-hitting stuff, uh, in the offense easier to transition to, and it's going to be less really deep drop backs. I do think Quinton Johnson can be utilized in the yards after the catch role. Um, to me, he's kind of YAC immediately or down the football field, and everything in between is kind of lost with Quinton Johnson.
I think you can do that with the McDaniel offense, and we've seen that with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Like, it's kind of not that much in between, but down the football field or underneath and go. I think that he's going to be involved here. So, I think Lad McConkey, Quinton Johnson, all these guys I want to draft, but Quinton Johnson's terrible rookie season, I think, has created a discount, and I want to predict the future, not draft him based off his 2024 numbers.
>> Again, this goes with quarterbacks; this goes with other players. So often their rookie season kind of becomes the pillar that then we judge everything off of. Whereas some people just have poor rookie seasons because of a whole bunch of things going around. And that was the case here with Q.J. He had obvious flaws, and he's kind of cleaned up, and, you know, smoothed out some of his rough edges.
There was an awesome clip that you referenced of Mike McDaniel talking to QJ during OTAs. He said, quote, "Your drive phase is going to the league up, and I want to protect that."
>> "Prefer to not see you be comfortable at the top of a stick until August because you have so much drive phase and weight that if you really utilize the drive phase, it's not going to be as clean and 90."
>> And that's what I want. You'll—you'll tighten up the turn as it goes, but that your drive phase right now is going to the league up, and I just want to protect that at all costs.
And by that he means that he wants him just running full speed right now, and that in August that's when he's going to clean up the turns and the breaks in his routes, which I thought was really cool. You know, wide receiver coaching, which Mike has a history of. He's talked at length about like coaching Andre Johnson when he was this, you know, young, skinny guy, and "how can I give you, you know, more help and more development, and how can you trust me?" It's just from improvement.
Um, yeah, I mean, Dolphins had the second highest scoring team in 2023. So, if Reeves and what you just said comes into fruition, that season gave us Tyreek Hill, the wide receiver one in points per game, and Jaylen Waddle, the wide receiver 22 in points per game. So, this passing game can get to a point where it supports two startable fantasy wide receivers on a weekly basis. We're really not having to pay for that, getting Quinton Johnson outside the top 36 wide receivers at this point.
Now, we can throw in Trey Harris and what we like about him, and maybe the Chargers do, and all that type of stuff, but if you ask me right now, who are they going to be the two most productive wide receivers on this team? It's Lad and it's QJ. And there's a decent chance that both finish as top 26 wide receivers this season.
>> Yep. Yeah. I really have like nothing bad to say about this price tag.
>> No, me either. I mean, you really shouldn't. And—and look at this. I mean, ADP has continued to climb up from starting at 94 in Mid-May overall up to 80th overall at this point, and then wide receiver 43 up to wide receiver 38. And I still think wide receiver 38 is undervaluing him. I got my wide receiver 33 right next to Alec Pierce and Carnell Tate. And it's like, really, like, who's going to score more fantasy points, Quinton Johnson or Carnell Tate? Like, I think, like, truth serum, I would be like, "Yeah, it's probably going to be Quinton Johnson."
>> Wow.
All right, let's talk about Michael Pitman. He finished last year on the Colts as wide receiver 28 in points per game. But right now, you were able to draft him as wide receiver 48 in points per game. For me, Hayden, like if you watch him, it's glance routes, RPOs, quick-hitting slants, crossers out of tight formations on boot action as well. Even screens out of stacks, too.
And we have said this, and we'll repeat it because that's what you're supposed to do when it's a good line: Aaron Rodgers turned DK Metcalf into Michael Pitman Jr. last year, and now he just gets Michael Pitman Jr. in this offense in the areas that Aaron Rodgers loves to throw the football to at his age 40-ish season.
>> Yeah, he's one of the later drafted, uh, wide receiver twos, so kind of in the middle rounds. And I just think that he's a really strong selection. And I don't think that the gap between DK Metcalf and Michael Pitman's all that large in terms of fantasy, just because I think DK Metcalf's going to go back to this downfield role, and I think that Michael Pitman is going to do the Michael Pitman stuff, which is what Aaron Rodgers likes. Uh, 775 yards—that seems totally appropriate. I don't think we're chasing a ceiling here. To me, he's, you know, one of the first wide receivers on your bench by weeks come, injuries come, and you have to throw him in there and just like praying for, you know, nine PPR points.
>> Right? I think, like, that's what he's going to be able to do. I don't think that Rodgers is going to like turn the corner. I think Rodgers is what he is. It's going to be a balanced offense or offensive line rules. Uh, but Michael Pitman should be the guy like on those like, you know, audibles, those checks at the line of scrimmage, and Rodgers throws the ball, uh, immediately. I think those are going to more likely go to Michael Pitman this year than the DK Metcalf.
Just to outline that comment about turning DK Metcalf into Michael Pitman last year. Last year for DK, uh, less than 20% of his targets were 20-plus yards, 44% of his targets were 0-to-9 yards, and a career-high 12% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. DK had never had a combo like that during his NFL career so far. I mean, his career AOT dropped from 14 down to 11 last year. So, you were begging for someone to win in the trash, in the muck, over the middle, on these quick hitters a bit more often. And that's why they make the move for someone with Michael Pitman and gave him more money on top of it.
>> Yep.
>> You know, um, now I do want to say that Michael Pitman did have an awful back injury that he played through in 2024. That was one of the crazier news item and then outcomes that I can remember doing this in fantasy football where there were reports that he was going to be shelved for like nine weeks. He missed one week of action and then just played the rest of the year. So, the dude is a freaking warrior on the field.
But, uh, I do want to note that, one, we might have seen already the best of Michael Pitman Jr. Uh, but two, even close to that would make him, I think, a consistent option in this offense.
>> Yeah, I just not expecting a big ceiling in Pittsburgh offensively. So, you can only draft him so high, but I do think he's a really solid player. I just think—I think he's—he is exactly what Aaron Rodgers likes at this stage. So, I think him versus DK Metcalf, it's about a coin flip. And I think his presence made me pick DK Metcalf as one of my faves. I forget exactly which episode it was, but I had to talk negatively on DK Metcalf just because of this point that you're making.
The last name in this group is actually Michael Wilson, a channel favorite, finished last year as the wide receiver 24 in points per game, and now you're able to draft him as the wide receiver 44. Is that right?
>> Well, I'm nervous about these Cardinals. Uh, because if you look at like the wide receiver/tight end three in the offense, like Michael Wilson gets drafted pretty early among wide receiver/tight end three, like in the pecking order, and this—we know this team's going to stink. So, that—that immediately makes me nervous. Uh, and he broke out without, obviously, Marvin Harrison. I do think it's like a—I can probably make the argument Michael Wilson's a better wide receiver than Marvin Harrison is right this second, but you should be expecting Marvin Harrison to take steps still because he's—he's a little bit younger than Michael Wilson.
I just don't have the confidence in that in week one with everybody healthy that he's going to project well, and then when week 10 comes around and Carson Beck's the quarterback, like, I—I'm just struggling to see how these guys pay off these ADPs across the board. I like them individually to like some degrees, but man, I just think three Cardinals pass catchers by the eighth round, like, do we not see how this can go wrong?
>> We need Jacob Brissett to start for 17 games. I mean,
>> It's not going to happen.
>> And it's not going to happen. You know, he might even start seven games with how this offseason is going so far. And that's frustrating. I went back and watched early season Michael Wilson compared to later season Michael Wilson because, you know, we got five games of Kyler as a starter, and that was arguably like the worst we've seen of Kyler Murray. He was, you know, falling away from throws. It felt like every time he targeted Michael Wilson, it was kind of off-target, either an overthrow or off the frame for a back shoulder, and they just weren't in sync at all in these crossing routes, too.
And then freaking Jacobe comes in. The touch trajectory, the timing of it all seemed like just the perfect fit. Now, you know, he was second among receivers and receptions at 56, second in receiving yards at 775 over the last eight games of last year. We know Marv only played three of those eight games and was actually a part-time player in those three games. So, that plays a part here, too. Um, but at the end of the day, like unless the Cardinals shock the world this year, we're not getting 17 or maybe even 12 or maybe even eight games of Jacob Brissett at this time. So, I have more confidence in Michael Wilson with Brissett. Like you, I know that Michael Wilson is good at the game of football. I just don't know if this is going to be the environment for him to be able to expand that eight games to 17-game sample from the last two years.
Yeah. But is it fair that he's all the way down at wide receiver 44? I guess after he finishes wide receiver 24.
>> I think it's totally fair. I just don't want to draft either one of these guys. And I—I'm—I haven't been drafting Trey McBride either. You know, I think Marvin's, to me, like the clearest fade of them, just because I don't think he's going to be a volume hog, uh, with Trey McBride there. And I'm not convinced that he's actually that much better than Michael Wilson.
And then just to put the numbers on it, there was, uh, 10 games last year where Marvin Harrison had at least three targets in the games. Michael Wilson in those 10 games averaged 27 yards per game. His target share in those games was at 13%. His expected points was six half PPR. He actually had five half PPR. That's called the waiver wire. So, uh, I—I'm just worried that—and that's that. And by the way, the Cardinals last year were first in pass attempts.
>> That might not happen.
>> So, I—I'm not going to draft these Cardinals this year. Like, there's—there the skilled guys are too good for how bad the quarterback situation is going to be.
>> We just did an episode with Ron Stewart talking about Jeremiah Love. Go and watch that. Uh, because that's a slightly different conversation.
>> Yeah, Love's fine. Love's going to be fine.
Okay, we've covered all those names. There is an interesting section in drafts right now of unsigned veteran wide receivers that are out there, and some or all will find teams. Uh, their
Names are Brandon Iayuk, Debo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, and even Keenan Allen. And Keen Allen is somewhat of the latest one with news. I saw a Colts beat writers say that they could potentially sign Keenan Allen, which would, you know, dip into our Josh DS conversation there. That's for sure.
>> Exactly.
Because Keenan played for Shane Syiken with the LA Chargers, and, quote, "if Pierce's ankle recovery is slow, it makes even more sense." So maybe that's more Alec Pierce insurance then it would be Josh DS, but I think it would also overlap there a bit more often.
Anyways, as we just talked about with the Devonte Smith ADP rise when AJ Brown was traded, if any of these players sign, as soon as they do, they will shoot up draft boards, and their ADP will climb instantly. So, give thoughts on one or all right now.
>> How I would rank him would be Diggs, Aayuk, Debo, Keenan. If they were just signing to all the same team, I thought Diggs' season last year was really good. He's going to sign with a team shortly. His legal case is behind him. The NFL is not going to suspend him, and he's going to sign a team instantly. And there's a couple pretty good landing spots available. Like, well, I think the Chiefs would obviously be one. The Colts have a starting spot available to him. The Commanders do.
I think that Aayuk is about to move teams here. I think that he's going to force the 49ers by showing up. And he seems to at least be in shape for as crazy of this offseason has been. So, I think that Diggs is probably not going to climb too much more. He's the one that should be ranked the highest right now. I think the IU stuff's going to look really silly. And I think the second he goes on the Commanders, he will be drafted right next to Rasheed Shahed, Omar Cooper, those types. And if he does it soon enough and there's a good training camp clip, he's going to go ahead of Coker and Khalil Shakir and Jaden Higgins and those guys, even a round or so above that. So, like, I'm loading up on Brandon right now, and I think that this thing will get buttoned up soon enough. And if I'm wrong here, well, Calvin really is probably not going to score points. Our guy Bernard's probably not going to score very many.
>> What about Jerry Judy? Ian Hardit's most drafted player, 67% of drafts.
>> I did not name him. I like Jerry Judy. I like Adnai Mitchell. I like Brandon Iuk at these, at the end of these drafts. Okay.
>> Um, I just think that I, of them, like, this, this is just going to look silly.
>> Well, it is unsurprising that during the timing and taping of the show, Bren posted another video on Instagram. It was of him holding a football with a commander logo on it, and the caption at the bottom reads, quote, "The best team in the world." Just a couple days ago, Brena also got on Instagram and just said, "Go commanders. Go commanders. Go commanders."
>> Yeah.
In that same time, his longtime teammate in George KD got on part of my take and said, "Yeah, you're right. I would wouldn't be happy either if a team paid me $130 million." And he said, "Good luck with all that," to PFT in terms of, "Hey, we're going to sign Brena, and it's all going to work out well." So, I mean,
I don't know what to think. You know, are you going to get nice excel CV value once Bernayuk hits 100%? Do I think when Bernayuk has been on the field in the early parts of his career, was he one of the more underrated route runners across the league? 100%. I mean, the dude could flat out win versus man-to-man coverage and looked exceptional.
>> Uh, I also think that,
it's been weird this offseason, man. I mean, beyond weird. This is not normal behavior. And so I don't think you can predict normal behavior once he reaches an NFL team. And I have no idea. I have no input of what the outcome is going to be other than if he signs with the Commanders, he is their second most talented wide receiver, and his ADP is going to be up, but I have no clue what that means in terms of staying on the field, success on the field, and how that's going to look actually on the field.
>> Yeah, I mean, there's not a wide receiver with nearly the path to upside that compares to him within many, many rounds of where he's currently being priced. And none of these wide receivers have any floor. You're telling me that Calvin really has any floor? Tank Dell has a floor? I mean, he might not even play. Those are the guys that he's sandwiched between. Where, where, where would you actually draft Brandon Nauk? Let's say he signs on the Commanders halfway through training camp. Let's say it's August 10th, and he has a couple weeks to prepare. He's out there. He's healthy. We have some positive signs. And like, I mean, Kh Shakir or Brandon Nauk, like, for real?
>> Yeah. No, I'm I totally hear you. Like, you know, we are drafting Antonio Williams with the faith that he's going to be a top two or three target getter on the Commanders at the middle of the 14th round right now. I keep talking about it. It is disgusting to draft like any wide receiver round 12 and beyond. And there might be three or four that I actually want to draft that entire way. So, if you want to make it in the 12th round, 100% be my guess.
And it sounds like you want to take him even earlier than that when we just talked about Jaylen Coker, for example. But like, that's Jaden Higgins above that, and then obviously Cleos Shakir's in that area too. Like, I don't want him to pass the Matthew Golden threshold.
>> No, he won't. And I think, like, I would still rather have Coker than like whatever the hell this Brandon Auk experience is. But like, I mean, Trey Tucker or Brandon, I mean, like, I think that's where, like, he should be drafted where Diggs is being drafted. I think that that's like factoring in a lot of the risk here.
>> The only thing, though, with Aayuk, it is one team. It's one team or bust. So, do you think that there already is a back channel deal that is done?
>> Yes. Yes.
>> Okay.
I think he has to, he has to force the 49ers to release him, which I think the quickest way to do that is to show up at the facility, and then I think he would get released then. So, I'm waiting for that to happen.
This is always a great exercise. Again, we go through 17 plus games. These players put on the field where they actually finish in fantasy football, and the next season starts because of an offseason, because of changes, and we draft them entirely different than where they finished the previous year. And we have to figure out if that's right or wrong.
>> Yep. And then running backs will do the same version of it. And that one's even more fascinating because I think the running backs are still underpriced. They're priced up, and they still have not moved enough if you're looking at half PPR. And I've got some evidence for that.
>> Well, be on the lookout for that running back show here in the next couple days. It'll be in your feed this week. All right. Shout out to Mosho and Weaves behind the scenes, and all of you that have watched and hit that subscribe button. Means a lot to us. Up the villa, everyone. We'll talk to you in the next episode. See you.