Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. We are going to talk about Link today, the crypto from Chainlink. Many of you have asked me about it. So, we will talk about it. We will do a technical analysis, see where we concretely stand. Are we rather bullish, bearish, what are the reloading zones, what are the selling zones? But first, we will quickly recall what Chainlink is. Chainlink is an oracle, but not only. An oracle is not a person who, in front of a crystal ball, defines something that will happen. No, it is actually a protocol that will serve as an interconnection between the real world and the blockchain. And Chainlink is much more than that because it allows all interconnections to be made, whether through the banking system, tokenization, decentralized finance, blockchains, automations. In short, it is absolutely everywhere. And Chainlink is the most used oracle and the most solid one at the moment. It is the one that is interfaced with Swift, which is the international banking protocol. With Fidelity, the huge Fidelity, and yes, it's not for nothing. Globally, Chainlink is also the CCIP protocol which allows interfacing with all of fintech here and all the stack that will be rather financial at the corporate level with the blockchain. The CCIP is often very used in interconnections between DeFi applications and the real world, and even inter-blockchain because yes, Chainlink is a notion of cross-chain that allows different blockchains and different information to be interpassed, and it is something that moves fast, and it is more than 20,000 billion in value that has transited through Chainlink to explain how solid the infrastructure behind it is. Well, now that we understand what Chainlink is, we also understand the essence it has and how it can translate into price. So, technically, we had a big accumulation period. It's not for nothing that at one point, I called it the stablecoin Chainlink, so much it was stuck in this small range before breaking out of the range to recreate an accumulation here and start a new acceleration phase. We went to retest this re-accumulation in the same way we went to retest the previous accumulation before having a re-acceleration. And here, we did not necessarily have a large, very compressed accumulation as we could have had during August 2024. We had rather something that started again quite quickly with an acceleration, then a retest, then a break, and an acceleration. And here technically, we are rather in a breathing phase with a first wave, a second wave, so globally rather classic in terms of consolidation. So what is interesting to see is that we indeed have an accumulation phase, an expansion phase. We did not break $30, we did go to seek liquidity here. We failed on the first resistance, a big resistance after the breakout phase, we had already failed on this one with a rather classic retracement phase. I think that here, the important levels to watch will be $20. A big resistance level here. We see well that it was difficult to get past it. It was a big support here. A big resistance again, so certainly a big support here. And it should be noted that we also have a second level that was established here by this retest around $18. So globally, this zone here is really a very important support zone for Link to take off again. If unfortunately we break it, it means that we are changing the dynamic a bit and we will certainly retest a lower low which will be around $14. Why? Because we have a zone here that is rather classic for imbalance with here a very good opportunity for reinforcement and purchase around $14 if the momentum is still bullish in the overall crypto market, obviously. Have the ability to zoom out. Ask yourself the question: are altcoins performing or not? Is BTC performing? Is it a bullish trend? Is it a bearish trend? And always adapt your positioning on altcoins in relation to the general trend. Don't forget to analyze BTC first before analyzing any altcoin, it will always give you the lead and the main bias. For me, we will have to monitor the weekly part quite quickly. We see that we are going to retest it on weekly. Rather not a good sign if we break it downwards, it means that we would indeed go to seek $14, or perhaps even retest, why not, a little below $12. Ideally, we absolutely must not break $10 here. Maintain this liquidity level well. We can make a small wick just to liquidate, and then take off again, that would be perfect. But we really must not break this. If we break it, unfortunately, it means that during a next bullish re-acceleration, the probability of making a lower low will be higher, and therefore we will have a much longer breathing phase on Link. So be very careful, especially since Link itself, even if it is used absolutely everywhere and by almost all protocols, it has some competitors, certainly, but you have to understand that there is not necessarily a link between Chainlink's work and the Link token itself. We don't have buybacks, we don't have revenue transfers. Maybe that could happen at some point. OK, for now, it's complicated to price it as is. In the meantime, if we maintain the supports well and we start a bullish phase again, it will be quite simple to look. Just take the short-term acceleration phase we could have had. We will take the retracement level. If we do it at the current state, it will be $33-34. If we go back to $20, around $20, hop, we will reposition here. We will be around $32. That is to say, a re-acceleration of the same principle as what we could have had in this acceleration here where we went to seek this top without necessarily a large part of bullish breakout to go seek the next targets. So here in this zone, if we go higher, we will go seek the fire around $40, which is perfect because there is a lot of liquidity located here. And the next big resistance block is around $42-46 to watch. Again, here this is short to medium term. We don't forget that we are in the year, the end of 2025. So that also potentially means the end of the cycle. Even if yes, we talk about the fact that the cycle has changed. We see it well on altcoins. Indeed, Link has performed but has not outperformed the market where historically it had outperformed in 2021 and like many altcoins. We must understand and accept this change. So that also means that our risk management must be different. And when we understand Chainlink, we also understand the importance it can have in all protocols, but we also understand the fact that despite all this importance, the Link token does not carry any direct link with the profits that can be made by the protocol itself, and that is perhaps the big problem of Link. If we take a step back on the monthly chart, it will be interesting to see that we still have a little room at the RSI level for me to be able to perform. So that means we still have a little space to go retest $20 to re-accelerate without having a breakout here, because when we have a breakout, it means that we are actually in this phase of decline then accumulation before starting stronger again. Again, what will be complicated will be the end of the 2025 timeframe. Are we at the end of a cycle or conversely in a totally different cycle with valuations that will be made rather over time in this style with schematic structures that will climb in steps? Rather simple to manage once we have understood how it worked, especially since we had the validation. Unfortunately, this validation will only arrive at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. Do we have a bear market or not? Do we have a re-acceleration or not? And that, unfortunately, only time will tell. I hope this video pleased you. If so, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. And we'll see you very soon. Soon. [Music]