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What is going on, Headliner Nation? I hope you are ready for some straight banger picks here in week four.
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Do you ever have those feelings where everything just seems to line up so well? That's exactly what's going on here this week. Now, don't get me wrong, last week was great. Four of our five picks hit in this show and technically the CD Lamb pick was rescued due to injury. So, basically hit five out of six just last week in this episode. Plus, if you tailed the pack that we had featured inside the underdog app last week, you almost tripled your money because we hit all of those picks. There were over 3,000 people that tailed that pack. And I love seeing so many people win some money.
Now, on the season after last week, that puts us at 70 out of 100 picks. So, 70% through the first three weeks of the season. I'll take that all day long. It was enough to get me through high school. It's got to be good enough now as well. So, before we dive into the players here in today's show, I have to be sure that you are all signed up and ready to go on Underdog if you'd like to follow along with us. And if you haven't signed up, there isn't a better weekend than this weekend. And let me tell you why. All customers on Underdog are going to get two free gimme picks this weekend. Plus, new customers are going to get three gimme pickics. They're also going to get a 50% boost for the Sunday morning Dublin game and there's going to be a sitewide no sweat token available all weekend long. So head over to Underdog Fantasy or download the app, create a new account and use the referral code headliners when you do so. Then just make your minimum deposit. They're going to give you a first time deposit bonus. Throw some bonus funds into your account and we can have fun making these picks together all weekend long.
Now, I'm going to be posting three pick them entries in this show here today so we can all ride them and have fun together. But all right, enough of that. Let's dive into the players we're taking a look at in week four. And the first player up is Jaylen Warren, running back of the Pittsburgh Steelers. And through three weeks, he is a top 20 fantasy running back. He has 54 touches in just three games. He's averaging over five yards per touch. He's caught all but one target this season and he has the third most receiving yards among running backs only trailing Christian McAffrey and Bejon Robinson. He's averaging 12.9 yards per reception which is the second highest among all running backs in the NFL. And let's be honest with each other. Pittsburgh has had way more success throwing to running backs than handing it off to them. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell are averaging 3.25 yards per carry. That's disgusting. But now they travel to Ireland and they have their routine all thrown off. More times than not, that's going to lead to a simplified game plan and a lot more running back involvement. On top of all of that though, they're facing the Minnesota Vikings who under Carson Wentz have a very good shot of putting some points up on the board against this Pittsburgh defense. This could easily turn into a Minnesota lead and Pittsburgh having to throw the football majority of the game. There is no reason to think that one of their top passcatching weapons in Jaylen Warren isn't going to be highly involved again. So, let's go ahead and dive into underdog and see how we can play this in our favor. If you pull up Jaylen Warren and underdog and go to his receiving yards, you will see that they are currently set at 23.5, but you can drop that line down to 14.5 receiving yards and take the higher at a 74x multiplier. Remember, we're using alternate lines with lower multipliers on purpose. Sure, the payout may be a little bit lower, but the chance of hitting is so much higher. If we can double and triple our money more consistently, we're all going to be pretty happy. But now that we know that all of this makes logical sense, let's pull up some of the data to back it up. Jaylen Warren has actually surpassed 14.5 receiving yards in 70% of his games over his last 20 games played. Plus, he's done it in all three games this season so far. Now, if you don't use his alternate line and go with the original line of 23.5, that's something he has only hit in eight of his last 20 games played. I'm taking the higher of Jaylen Warren and 14.5 receiving yards. That is the best way to go.
Now, after him is Brandon Cooks, wide receiver of the New Orleans Saints. And typically I try to stick to higher tier players, but every so often there's a play that I find that is just too consistent to pass up. I'm also aware that it's not 2018 anymore. And Brandon Cooks really hasn't been a thing in forever, but he does have 11 targets for eight receptions and 76 yards in the three games he's played this season. He's had at least two receptions in all three games this year as well. On top of all that, he's averaging 9.5 yards per reception, but also has a catch of at least 12 yards in all three games. He's on the field consistently playing 71% of the offensive snaps. And we know the Saints aren't any good still. They're going to be playing from behind against the Buffalo Bills. Right now, Vegas has the Bills at minus 5.5 with the overunder on points set at 48.5. I think it's safe to say that New Orleans isn't going to be running the clock out much in week four and that's just going to increase the potential opportunities going the way of Brandon Cooks this week. So, let's do what we do. Let's dive into Underdog and see how we can play this in our favor. If you go into underdog and you pull up Brandon Cooks and look at his receiving yards, you're going to see that they are currently set at 16.5 yards, but you can actually drop that line down to 9.5 receiving yards and take the higher at a 73x multiplier. Remember once again, let me reiterate, we're doing alternate lines on purpose. Yes, the payouts are going to be lower, but the chances of winning are so much higher. We're trying to consistently double and triple our money. But now that we know all of this makes this logical sense, let's back it up with some data. And by doing that, we see that Brandon Cooks has surpassed 9.5 receiving yards in 19 of his last 20 games, including all three games this season and all of his head-to-head matchups against Buffalo. We also said earlier that he's had a catch of at least 12 yards or more in each game this season. That would mean that he would only need one catch this week for this number to hit. If you do not use the alternate line and you go with his original number of 16.5 receiving yards, that's something he's only hit in 65% of his last 20 games. However, he has surpassed that amount in all three games this season thus far. So, if you want to risk it for the biscuit at 16.5, at least he's shown that that number is doable. Personally, I'm taking the higher of Brandon Cooks and 9.5 receiving yards. It's the much safer way to go.
Now, after Brandon Cooks is Jir Gibbs. And when you think of Jir Gibbs, you think of total yards. You think of touchdowns at a crazy high clip. But you also think about how heavily involved he is in the Detroit passing game. He's got 19 targets in just three games. That's the third highest among all NFL running backs. He has 12 receptions this season, which is second highest among all running backs. He also commands a 20% target share in Detroit, which is third highest among all running backs in the NFL. But you all already know that. You know, he's highly involved in the passing game. So, what really makes this one intriguing for me is the matchup going up against Cleveland. Right now, the Cleveland Browns are the number one rushing defense in the NFL. No team has allowed less rushing yards than the Cleveland Browns this season. However, last week we saw the Cleveland defense allow five receptions and 44 yards to Josh Jacobs. So, if Detroit struggles to move the ball on the ground against Cleveland, Gibbs is going to be utilized in the passing game. So, let's head over to underdog and let's see what we can pull up there. Now, if you go to Jir Gibbs and you go to his receiving yards, you will see that they're currently set at 26.5 receiving yards, but you can drop his line down to 19.5 and take the higher at a .76 multiplier. Now, that obviously makes a lot of sense to a lot of people. So, let's pull up the data and trends. And when you do that, you see that Jir Gibbs has surpassed 19.5 receiving yards in eight of his last nine games and in 70% of his last 20 games played. Now, if you don't use that alternate line and go to his original total of 26.5, that's something he's only hitting 60% of his last 20 games. But if you pay attention to that nine-game span where he's gone over in those eight games, you'll see that he's gone over 30 yards receiving. So, honestly, if you wanted to risk it with the higher total, it is doable as well. But, in my opinion, taking the higher on Jir Gibbs at 19.5 receiving yards is the much better choice.
Now, after him is Trayvon Henderson of the New England Patriots, and is it finally time for Henderson to be unleashed? Last week, we saw Raandre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson put the ball on the ground. And everything right now is pointing to Tayvon Henderson being the man in week four. Even in a limited role though, the first three weeks of the season, he is seventh among running backs in receptions and 12th in receiving yards. He's also caught every single target that has been thrown his way. and he's averaging 6.6 yards per reception. Now, up until this point, he's only played in 38% of the offensive snaps. So, if we're expecting that number to creep up even just a little bit, that's just going to provide more potential production for Tvon Henderson. Now, this week, he gets a home game against the Carolina Panthers. Last week, Carolina allowed 39 yards receiving to Bijan Robinson. The week before that, they allowed 48 yards receiving to James Connor and Trey Benson in Arizona. So, as good as Carolina has been on the outside against wide receivers, they've had some vulnerabilities to pass-catching running backs. So, let's go ahead and dive back into underdog. And if you go to Tayvon Henderson and look at his receiving yards, you're going to see that they're currently set right now at 17.5. But you can go ahead and drop that down to 9.5 receiving yards and take the higher at a 71x multiplier. So, now that we know that there's an option out there for us here, let's see if the data supports it. And when you look at it, yes it does. Hendo has surpassed 9.5 receiving yards in all three of his games this season, even in a more limited role. Even if you don't use the alternate line and go with the original total of 17.5, that's still something he's hitting all three of his games this season as well. So in reality, he has a good chance at hitting his original total as well as this alternate total. So why why am I even going with the alternate line then? Film. The Patriots are notorious for weird running back usage. And despite the fumbles, we know that they still like Rhamondre Stevenson. If I'm going to touch anything in the backfield of the New England Patriots, I'm going to do it at the lowest numbers possible until the splits are a little bit more stable there. So, if it's me, I'm taking the higher on 9.5 receiving yards for Trayvon Henderson.
Which then takes us to Tyler Warren, rookie tight end of the Indianapolis Colts. And yes, I'm going back to the rookie again in week four. He's top six among all tight ends in the NFL in targets, receptions, receiving yards, yards after the catch, and yards per route run. He's on the field all the time, playing 78% of the offensive plays this season thus far and has 84 routes run through the first three games of the season. And he is not just being used as some dink and dunk type guy. He's actually averaging 14 yards per reception and has had a catch of at least 17 yards in each of the first three games this year, which brings us to the matchup this week going up against the Rams, who have been probably one of the best defenses early on in 2025. But they haven't really played a team that features its tight ends like the Colts do. Last week, they allowed 33 yards and a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, who only saw two targets. The week prior they allowed 35 yards to Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Tennessee Titans and then 50 yards in week one to the Houston tight ends. But it's also worth noting that Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce is questionable to play and that could provide an extra target or two going the way of Tyler Warren. So let's go ahead and dive into underdog and see what we can find. Now, if you go and pull up Tyler Warren, you'll see that his current receiving yards is set at 50.5, but you can drop that number down to 34.5 receiving yards, take the higher, and get it at a .70x multiplier. So, that tells us that there's an option out there for us. So, let's go ahead and pull up the data. Now, there were a lot of people last week that took Warren at the 39.5 receiving yard total instead of our posted suggestion of 34.5. That turned out pretty crappy since he finished with only 38 yards, but that's why I'm once again going with the 34.5 total. He has hit that in all three games this season. And with him averaging 14 yards per reception, he only needs three catches this week in order to hit. If you don't use the alternate line of 34.5 and go with the 50.5, that's something he's hit in two of the three games this season. But it gives me a little bit of concern going up against this Rams defense. So, if it's me, I'm staying consistent and I'm going the higher on 34.5 receiving yards for Tyler Warren.
Now, lastly is Justice Hill of the Baltimore Ravens. And okay, so this show has two lower tier guys included, but it's for good reason. Trust me. Now, in no way is Derrick Henry going to lose his job for fumbling in three straight games. But I also think we know at this point that Henry just isn't on the field a lot for third downs in Baltimore. Now, when he isn't on the field, Justice Hill is, who's currently playing 45% of the offensive snaps this season. Hill has had seven receptions for 66 yards to start the year. But in this case, I want to focus on the matchup against Kansas City. The Chiefs again in 2025 have been solid when it comes to stopping the run. But last week, Cam Scataboo racked up six catches for 61 yards in the receiving game against them. But if we look through 2024 and early on here in 2025, Justice Hill has averaged 2.6 receptions per game. It seems like he's good for a couple dump-offs a week, but has enough juice to really get more volume, especially if Baltimore is trailing. Now, Vegas currently has Baltimore minus 2.5 with the total points hovering right around 48.5 or so. So, this game could be pretty close. But now, let's dive into Underdog. If you pull up Justice Hill on Underdog and go to his receptions, you'll see that they're currently set at 2.5, but you can drop that line down to 1.5 receptions and take the higher at a .77x multiplier. Now that we know that though, let's pull up some of the data to make sure it makes sense. And when you do that, you'll see that over his last 20 games played, Justice Hill has had at least two receptions in 75% of his games, as well as in 10 of his last 12 played and two of the three games this season. Now, if you don't use the alternate line and keep it at the two and a half receptions, that drops down to a 50% hit rate over his last 20 games. Truly, hit or miss. It is worth noting that he also has exceeded 1.5 receptions in both of his career games against the Kansas City Chiefs. He's done it by a lot. In fact, in his two games against Kansas City, he has a total of 10 receptions. Both of those games, Kansas City won as well. But with this game on the road in Arrowhead, if Kansas City can get an early lead, it could be a luck for Justice Hill to get two receptions here.
So, okay, here are the tickets that I personally went through and built using these six plays. Now, one of them, as you can see, is currently in the Underdog app under packs. And you can actually add these three picks with just one click and come play along with us. But here's a little here's a little secret. Be sure to add it from the pack section. Don't go through and add each player individually. I have seen that some people have gotten some supercharged boosts by using the packs feature on the homepage of the underdog app. You got to do it that way to maybe give yourself a higher payout. But I also wanted to throw together a touchdown ticket just for fun if anyone wants to tail that as well. This week I'm going with Omariion Hampton of the Los Angeles Chargers, James Cook and Buffalo. and I wanted to have a little bit of risk with the last one. So, I took a wildcard pick of Cade Otton to score a touchdown for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, if you want even more picks, be sure to become a channel member by clicking the join button just below the video. I'm putting over 25 plays a week in our Discord for our members. Plus, on top of that, if you're in our Discord, you also get a discount code to Next Play, and they provide a ton of picks for a ton of different platforms as well. Now, links to everything I've talked about are down below in the description right now. Either way though, we're going to have a lot of fun as a community playing these picks together. Now, if this video has led to you becoming a channel member, let me be the first one to officially welcome you to Headliner Nation.
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