Transcription
What's up guys and gals? It's your boy Trader Main here with another market update. So, it is December 15th. It's a Monday and Bitcoin has broken down from this little trend line. We got back below the 90K level. So, we talked about this uh on Friday's video, right? If you remember, uh I basically maybe it was Saturday, basically talked about us coming to the apex of kind of this triangle here, right? Apex of this triangle. So, I'm just going to clear up some of these levels here so you can see it a little bit more plainly here, right? We had this pattern forming, right? Where we're grinding to the apex of this volatility is coming, right? One of the best things that patterns can be used for is to actually tell you when the move is going to happen. So, when you have two levels converging and price is getting to that apex, eventually it's got to decide, is it going to break up from here or are we going to break down? In this case, we've broken down for now.
I've talked about these levels being potential downside targets, right? Once we broke below this trend line, we could very easily see ourselves come and take out any of these higher lows here. And so far, we've taken out this first one. So obviously even after October 10th there's still a lot of liquidation coming through in the market. So as soon as we broke below here 87,000 there was like $200 million in longs liquidated. You got to remember guys we're in a 15% range here. Okay. And we had one of the largest liquidation events ever two months ago. And from there, we're 30% plus down from all-time high. And people are still absolutely piling into leverage like madmen. Okay? So, you got to be very very careful with the leverage. In my opinion, there should not be that much liquidations going on in here. But naturally, as soon as price gets the range high, people pile in thinking it's going to break out. Moves down, they get smoked. And the same thing will happen here. I guarantee if we break below one of these levels, we'll get some sort of bounce. Maybe it's from this level here, but we will get some sort of short squeeze and you're going to see a ton of shorts liquidated as people try and pile in leverage and actually guess basically that's what they're doing when this is going to break up or down for real. But for now, we've we've broken down.
Um, I still think that um the high time frame plan that I've I've laid out for you guys has not changed. Okay? So, I know it's boring. I know it's like, why do you keep doing these videos if nothing has changed on the high time frame? Well, I think what I might start doing is focusing a little bit more on low time frame stuff because I've said the high time frame stuff a million times at this point, right? We need to break above this downtrending line. We need to make a higher high above that major downtrending line. You look at the weekly here. This is a very aggressive weekly downtrend. We came up close to it here, right? But still no break above. We're rolling over. We need to break above this downtrending line. We need to get above here. We need to get above here if we want to have any chance at new all-time highs. Do I still think it's possible for new all-time highs? Absolutely. There's lots of positive narrative juice in the market with regard to QE liquidity coming to the markets. People talking about the 5-year cycle. I'm seeing videos of the bull run hasn't even started. 2025 was just the warm-up. All of that stuff still exists and there's still potential for a new all-time high. That being said, um I I don't have much to update until we actually get a move above this level. And before we get above this level, we could come from here, right? We could take out this low. So, there's still a lot of kind of waiting and patience that is required. And I tweeted out about this yesterday or the day before that right now it's going to require some patience. I know it's frustrating waiting to see if this is the low or we going to take out the 80k low. I get it. But from a price action perspective, there is no difference in my opinion in this type of structure that we saw back here and the structure that we're seeing right now where you can have a low form, right? A nice big bounce here. Let me do that a little better here. We'll go from here to here. Okay. So, there's your low, right? There's your rally and bare flag. Do these not look awfully similar when I inter overlay them? And then we could have one more move below the low. It would probably put in some sort of bullish divergence down there as well. Exactly as it did here. It would be a weekly SFP ideally exactly as it was here and at the bottom before that, the bottom before that, before that. I've talked about this stuff a billion times. So that high time frame viewpoint, that high time frame prognosis from me remains unchanged. I still think that we're due for an end of the year rally. Whether that comes from where we are right now or after a sweep of this low, I still think that there's a very good chance that we retest at least this kind of 98k level, hopefully even higher, and an outside shot. I said maybe 20% of new all-time highs. Step one, get above this downtrending line.
So, with all that being said, let's focus on the low time frame. Who cares about the high time frame right now? That hasn't changed. It hasn't changed for quite literally months. But the entire time that we've been in this range since the mid to late November, my thought process has been the exact same. I've just repeated it every week. So on the low time frame, we have a really nice clean range here. Okay. So if I'm going to clean this up even better, let's just delete all that. There's your range high. You could take this. Doesn't really matter. There's no right way to do this. Just do it the same every time to give you that consistency. But you could argue it's that. You could argue it's that. They give you basically the exact same levels here. Okay, we have a nice clean range here. At the range high, we have a clear resistance level in terms of the yearly open. Every time we've come up here, this has been a pretty much bang-on short opportunity. Then we've come around the mid-range, right? Put in some sweeps. We've had some decent longs opportunities. So, where are we right now? Where's the next trade? Forget about the high time frame. Forget about what hap might happen a month from now. Where's the next trade this week, right? Let's talk about that. So, something I've spoken on a lot in prior videos and streams. What's the next one move? Forget five moves from now. Forget where the price is going to be a year from now. What is a trade we could take this week? So, we'll put on Monday's range here. Okay, there's Monday's low. There's Monday's high. We're in the lower part of this larger 12-hour range. if we get some sort of run below Monday's low. And this low actually just happens to be quite close to Monday's low. So maybe that gets run as well. But to me, that's a that's a potential trade opportunity here for this week, right? We have this low here. This is not that far away from price. This is only another 2% lower. Okay. And you got Monday's low here. Maybe it's a deep pullback below there. And that's your trade idea back towards where the mid-range and then Monday's high. If it's just a run of Monday's low, it's the same idea. Mid-range, Monday's high. Nice equal highs there. Maybe we end up going above here finally. Take out these highs. Who knows? But I think a long opportunity probably presents itself at some point this week. either below Monday's low here, maybe below this 83k low, maybe it's even below here. Forget Monday's range. Maybe we get something like this. And that's the trade we're going to take. But that's where my mind is going into Tuesday, tomorrow, and the rest of the week. I want to see if we run Monday's low, reclaim, that might be a setup. Run this low, reclaim, that might be a setup. If we sell off really hard, some sort of move below here and a reclaim for a bounce is definitely a trade I want to take. On the short side, I'm not interested in shorting here right where we are. I would much rather wait for a backside retest. Right? So, if we come up here, maybe we get this Monday's range trade, right? Maybe this is the short back down. Something like that backside retest of this trend line. It runs Monday's high, it comes into this resistance. Maybe that's the short and maybe that's later in the week. But for now, based on where we are in the range, the fact that we just took out this low, right? And we're below the mid-range there. We have two very clear liquidity targets below us and obviously a third one down here. Let's see what happens. Let's see if we run any of these. And that gives us the trade opportunity for this week. So, forget that I think, hey, maybe we're going to do this and go to new alltime highs. This is five moves away and many weeks away most likely. What can we trade this week? This is what I'm watching here. So, we're dialed in. We've got a clear actionable plan to go out there and try and make a little bit of money. Collect a little bit of shekels, right? Because price is ranging. There's been multiple opportunities here. I took this trade. I shared this one. And I shared this one. I didn't end up taking this one here. I didn't end up taking this one here. Uh and I didn't take this one here either. But there was three or four trades in here that we discussed. Let's see if we get another one. This to me, this run and then this move up. How would this be any different here? Run that move up. It's the same type of price action. Just rangebound sideways. That's all it is. So people who are complaining about the PA, it just means that they don't know how to trade this type of price action, right? Price can only go up, down, or sideways, right? Up and down are the same, right? because this is just the inverse of this. So if you can long upside down the chart, inverse it, you can now short. Sideways is its own thing, right? Because in an uptrend, when price breaks a high, you expect continuation to the upside. When you're in a downtrend, when price breaks below a low and it bounces, you expect that bounce to get sold, continuation to the downside. Ranging is the tricky one, right? Because every time you think it's about to break out, it ends up retracing and going back to the other side of the range. Oh, you think it's going to break down? Oh, just a deviation. And this really [ __ ] people up. They like to give it all sorts of names. Chop, shitty price action, whatever they want to call it. Just means that they can't trade it. I all a lot of the strategies I've shared with you guys here over the years work extremely well in this type of PA, which you've already seen from the last couple of weeks in some of these trades we've taken.
So, that's what I'm looking at. Um, you know, on Bitcoin. Uh, let's go over to Ethereum here really quickly. We have Monday's low, Monday's high. Same kind of vibe here. Uh, we could look, we we did run this low. Let me get my drawings back before I disappear here. There we go. Um, let's go over to Ethereum here. So, we've got the same thing. We've got Monday's low, Monday's high. That could be the trade setup. We've also got this low we've just run. We've got a low slightly below price similar to Bitcoin. And then we've got the larger low which is like the 80K low on Bitcoin. Ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin a little bit of late. You can see that in the ETHBTC chart. Out of the low here back in November, this has been up right. So for the month of uh December so far, right, we're only halfway through, but um ETH has been outperforming Bitcoin. So that's why the price action looks a little bit different. We are still hovering right at this monthly order block here. And on ETH, we've really started to attempt here. We wicked above, closed below, but it's really trying to get outside of this downtrend line. Whereas Bitcoin, right, not there yet. ETH is really, really trying to get there. And this is high time frame support. So similar to Bitcoin, on the high time frame, I think a low is due soon. And I know I sound like a broken record. You're going to say, "Ma, you told us a low was due, you know, at 100 or at 98." I was [ __ ] wrong about that, obviously. But I'm still of the belief that we are going to get an end of the year rally and we didn't happen up here. This price action is much more conducive to that. And ETH, I think the same thing. We're within this monthly demand zone. It's going to form a low here sooner than later. Uh, and then we're going to get some sort of relief and then we're going to see how high that relief rally goes. Does it go up to, you know, 3500? Does it go up towards 4K and then get smacked down? I'm not worried about this yet. Let's talk about kind of the shorter term. But again, high time frame, my thought process is very similar to Bitcoin. I know a lot of you are like, "Well, where is this idea wrong?" I guess it's a little tricky to say. Like, I know you've seen guys like Credible Crypto say, "Well, we could go all the way to 74K and still remain bullish." I I don't I don't like that. I I'm already stretched a little thin here because I thought this this what's happening here. I thought this was going to happen here. If we get a strong close below this current low, um which is like at 80,000. I think there's a very good chance that um you know, maybe this was it for the bounce, right? Like this was our little exit bounce here and then it's going to have another significant leg lower. Uh and then I'm not really as interested in that. Um, ideally, even if it runs this low, I want this to hold as a range, similar to what this did. Similar to what this did back here. Um, and then this be our relief bounce that we worry about. Anyways, I'm getting off topic. So, ETH still into that high time frame demand. It looks a little bit better than Bitcoin going down on the 12-hour chart. Similar to Bitcoin here, we don't have as clean of a range here. Okay, we came up, we retested that three-day order block, rejected, go down to the daily. Like, to me, this range high doesn't work. I would probably use this. Okay. Yeah, we traded above it, but otherwise, we're kind of respecting the range pretty well here. Traded above the mid-range, support right there, deviate back below, underside test. We're now right at the mid-range here. So, if we don't get a bid here, similar to Bitcoin, right? Well, where's the next targets? Here's our downside targets. And we would look for potential runs of these levels and then reclaims for a trade. Like this, a move down here and then this is just the inverse of what happened right here. Just the inverse. Okay? It's the same type of setup, same type of trade. You ran above there. You zoom into the lower time frame. Oh, we had an SFP, right? You could say here's your breaker. You've got fair value gap here. You can go even lower. Once you see this SFP, okay, now we're very clearly breaking back within this range. We're retesting, right? Resistance here. You're shorting this stop at the high target mid-range, target range, low. So, just how this PA looks here, right? This is what it looks like in real time on the low time frame. No different down here. If we end up running the range low, I just want to see this happen. Right. You could take this fractal of here. Okay. Put it here. Can I invert this? Is that going to work? Uh, flipped. No. Mirrored. There we go. Right. No [ __ ] different. It's the same kind of idea. You get what I'm saying here? So, if you want to know how what do these deviations look like? How am I going to know if I want to buy this sweep or if it's actually about to break down, just the opposite of this. If it doesn't look like this, if it just comes down here and closes below, then legs down again, there's no sweep, there's no reclaim, there's no like clear signs that this is coming back in the range, then it's not a deviation. But we have an example of a deviation right here. So, we can look for something similar to form here. We can also look for something similar to form right where we are. Right? It doesn't need to be this big. It could be below this. It could be below this low here, right? It could be what's happening right now. I'm not saying that this is a deviation, but we could see a sweep below here. Bang. All of a sudden, this move reverses. Well, what is that? It's no different than this. Okay? It's no different than this. We just had the big sell-off. Maybe we get one more spike down. That's back above the mid-range and it was just a liquidity sweep.
Okay, so um what else? I took some notes here for you guys because I'm so [ __ ] organized. What else can I talk about about Ethereum here? Um there is the Fusaka upgrade coming this month. 13 billion in institutional holdings and $2.8 eight trillion dollars in stable coin volume in October. So big upgrade for Ethereum. Maybe that fundamentals lines up with some actual bullish PA, right? Like if we bounce on ETH up to here, what's everyone going to say? It was the Fusaka upgrade when in reality it was price was showing us that it wanted to bottom here and we saw it, we took the trade. Fusaka upgrade is just the narrative that poured gasoline on that fire. All right. Um, other than that, uh, real quick, I just want to talk about what we have on the macro side here. So, we have non-farm payroll tomorrow. Okay. And then we have a big, and I tweeted this bank BOJ, the Bank of Japan rate decision. So, um, it's expected to be a hike. So, rates coming down in America, they're going up in Japan. If you go watch that video and that post I did about the yen carry trade, well, if we hike to 75% Japan because it's usually near zero, uh that would be the highest it's been in a decade and that could lead to a further unwinding of the yen carry trade, which is bearish generally for risk assets. I'm not going to rehash the reason why, but effectively they've got to pay back these yenbased loans. How do they do that? Well, they've got to sell risk to get back the dollars to sell back the loans that are at now a higher rate because when they took out the loans, the rates were zero or very low. Um, but yeah, so that's all coming this week. Uh, it's also December, right? So, liquidity is a little thin. Uh, not as many people at their desk, especially on the Trady side. Uh, I think you want to survive here. I don't think you need to force yourself into any trades if you don't feel comfortable. I'm giving you like super low time frame opportunities here to focus on rather than trying to make macro decisions about what's going to what's price going to look like in March. Let's talk about what price is going to look like in a few days and you know try and make some money along the way. Keep trading this level to level. Uh equities getting that pullback by the way that I had mentioned right so I said hey if equities pull back here kind of a double top they needed to cool off. I said this could cool off sideways and then or it could pull back. This is the area I would like to see tagged based on how weak Bitcoin is right now. And equities are still like 2 or 3% off of this. [ __ ] do your job. Yeah, it's still like two to 3% away from this demand here. Uh if we do come down here, Bitcoin's going to sweep that 80k low. Pretty confident. At first when I posted that, I said, "Hey, if equities pull back here, maybe we run 87 and then 83 and then maybe 80." Well, we already ran 87. We're now trading at 85 and we've barely pulled back on equities. So, if we come below down to here, Bitcoin's going to tag below 80K. Very confident on that. So, that would be the confluence, right? If Bitcoin goes to 80K, equities come to here and then Bitcoin reclaims that 80K low, this probably becomes a really nice setup for that Santa rally into the end of the year. I still feel pretty good about us seeing over 7,000 on the S&P. So whether that's from here, right, or if that's from down here, TBD, trade-wise, I'm a buyer there. Otherwise, I'll wait for us to break above this double top. I'll be a buyer there. Uh that's all I got. Okay, guys. I hope you have a fantastic rest of the week. I'll talk to you either tomorrow or Wednesday. Um and yeah, peace out. Love you as always. Uh, oh, and got to shell my wares. I always forget. Uh, link in the description, Trader Mine, if you want to sign up for the Haven. We've been cooking in there. I'm up almost 60% on all the leverage trades I've tra taken in there over the year, which is phenomenal result. I got a journal with all of that in there. Uh, the IMG indicator, I'm still working on a video for that. I've just been a little sidetracked. Uh, so I apologize, but that is something I'm actively working on. Uh, so that's in there. Uh, if you want a discount code for Breakout, use code Maine. Get a discount. You can get up to $200,000 of funded capital. Okay, we have people who are up our top 10 on the leaderboard are up like 500 grand for December already. It's nuts. Uh, what else? That's all I got. [ __ ] Telegrams on my website. Discord's on the website. None of that cost you anything if you don't want it to. Love you as always. Talk to you later. Goodbye.