Transcription
Is the S&P running out of steam? That is the question.
We have some rotation after hours on some of these earnings. We're going to get to it. Let's do it. There's a couple things here that really stand out to me. So, the first is pretty obvious. You can see the RSI and then you can see we're coming back down trying to get over and that RSI doesn't continue to push it pulls sideways. So, take a look at this. I want to go through the basics before we really get into the meat on what's going on out there because there's a couple key things that happened after hours that I really think are worth our time.
But if we take a look, we hit a high, down, up, and now we can see, are we getting that divergence? We talked about this on that public pre-market today. I'm a little concerned by this.
Now, let's take a look at this on the NASDAQ for a second because there's also something that the market did today on the SPY that I do like. I'm just going to go to the NDX and we're going to see that we hit a high and then we're going to see that we hit a higher high and now we're going to see where we are. Now, we did break the DTL on here. We talked about this yesterday. Remember, all these videos are linked together. And this is important, and we're going to get into why.
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Liupold bought 5% of NBIS, and it's up 8% after hours. You bought 5% of the company. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
So to get back to it now, we can see the high, the lower high, the higher high, the low, and the high. 1 2 3 1 2 3. This is somewhat of a concern, a little bit of a concern after hours as well is what I'm seeing with the earnings. And we had some of these that were absolutely gang busters and now they're selling down even though in my opinion they were really good. So I just want to show you what's happening and then we can dive into this NBIS debacle.
First, I just want to show you that the socks is following a very similar pattern where we're hitting these highs and then we're hitting these lows. So, we're seeing the higher high, the lower high, which then sells us back down. We regroup and now we're getting this on the 4 hour. If we kind of coincide these, it's not great. It doesn't mean it's the end of the world if we pull back, but I just want to show you something. If we go here and we measure that out, you're going to get a number. It's about 5%. So, you have about a 5% drop in the socks in 4 hours today. If you look at this chart historically and go through it since April, how many 5% drops have you had? And if you go here, you're going to find one more that led to more selling. And then after that selling kicked off, then we rallied back up. So, the reason I'm pointing these out is because I think it's important. And this was the only one that was actually five and up from open to close. And the reason I'm pointing it out is we had to work that off. We had to come all the way back down. So, I think it's worth just saying, "Hey, this is significant." I also don't like what I'm seeing after hours with earnings. You had some really good earnings and you should have moved on it.
So, let's go down that rabbit hole and then we'll get back to it. So, if we take a look at Marvel was an absolute great quarter, absolutely crushed whether I like the stock, don't like the stock, completely irrelevant. But revenues were in line. Guide was greater than expected. Gross margins were better than expected. And they raised, I think we were looking for 90 cents or 80 cents, something like that, for next quarter. And hold on, let me see if they pop it in here. There it is. And they're 88 to 99 cents is where they're at. So they're coming in at 90 and they're between 88 to 99 cents on the quarter. So they're raising. Okay, great. Now that we know they're raising the stock, look what it did after hours. And you always want to watch this. So, I'll show you how to pay attention to this and it's it'll save you a ton of heartache.
If you go and take a look at a stock, you go get the pre and the post out of the way. And then we're going to mark off here. And I want to just mark off a couple other levels really quickly here as well. Then we're going to pull this back. And then from here, we're going to now mark the close. All right. Now, we're going to put in pre and post. And let's extend it out. And you'll see that close right in here. See how all these wicks came in and none of those wicks broke. And then we pushed up to that level. And you can see where these levels are. It's not rocket science, but you can see how we pushed up to those. But look at what happened when we broke the open, came back down, tried again, still holding the open and we're still pushing. Overall, this was a really good quarter. But once the earnings conference call started, they pushed into it and then they sold it right down. So, not really exactly what we were hoping or looking for from a semiconductor company tonight.
HPQ in my opinion and I own this so obviously I'm going to be biased but to me this was a great quarter absolutely crushed beat raised gross margins higher than expected operating earnings higher than expected raised higher than expected I'm up 30 cents so we're being a little muted on our moves and this is something we have to pay attention to now are there some silver linings with tonight I think there are so we have this huge move we actually had calls on this and when it popped up I actually sold stock against them. Hold on one second. Let me find it. So, when you buy a call, you have the right to buy a stock at a specific time and price. That is a contract. You have a contract. I know a lot of people don't pay attention to the details of what the options are, but that's what they are. With this contract, you have the right to do something at a specific time and price. That stock, we own the 26s. So, what I did was shorted stock at 29 to lock in the four box. So when it pops up into this, I'm shorting from there. I'm getting all this if it goes back. So I don't do the whole trade, but I do a portion to cover it. For those people that are trading options and then they're getting earnings moves and then they're not able to get out of the option, this is really helpful because it puts you in a position where you're in control. I could have closed it into this and locked it in. I chose to hold it because I thought it was a good quarter and I didn't really want to be out of the whole thing. I wanted to leave the hedge on, but at the same time, I still think that the way that I have positioned myself, I think I might be okay tomorrow, but we'll see. Right now, we're holding that price point, and that's exactly what we want to see. I'm surprised at how muted we are with the moves that we're having now.
You have some absolute blowouts after hours as well. Up 38% after hours, snow absolutely crushed and raised guidance and product was actually up. product revenue was up and their gross margins were up, which is pretty much not supposed to happen at all with any of these companies. But here you are and they absolutely crushed and they're crushing into the conference call right now. You can see when the conference call started, usually these things will back off. Nope, it's actually getting stronger. Even CRM, this was kind of interesting. Even CRM started to pop on their conference call, which is kind of surprising because this was pretty muted and they lowered revenue guidance and they lowered products as well. I thought that would be something very similar to Zcaler, but it wasn't. So, tomorrow I would really would focus on what you see with Snow. I have a position in it. I'll probably hold it over overnight. Actually, I'll hold it overnight as long as it keeps acting like this.
But concerns. Yeah, I'm a little concerned about the way that they acted with Marvel's quarter because it was a good quarter. Now, we have to see what happens tonight overseas. We have to also see what happens with the Iran War, obviously. But there's some hurdles there that I'm not going to get into cuz I really don't feel like talking about it to be quite honest with you. But just the rhetoric that's coming out of both sides right now, it doesn't seem like it's warm and fuzzy. The Marvel has me concerned. What would be really concerning from a top perspective is if Marvel closes under that 1962. I'm trying to give you very specific levels. yesterday with the way that this is shaping out with the rerating. Really interesting the comments how many people don't want to believe that you're starting to see a little bit of panic with these and the majority of the selling if you really take a look at this and and I do look at this and I do split it up that way.
If we get rid of the pre and the post, we're going to get rid of this for a second as well and we split up our day with the first hour and the last hour. So if we took the first hour here and we go to 10:30 and we draw that down. All right. So, the first hour would be this high and that low. Did it ever get lower than the first hour? Do we ever really break that first hour? Now, what a coincidence, right? So, who moves the first hour of trading? Retail. All right. Last hour of trading from 3:00 on, some people like to say it's 2:30. Dent's favorite time of day. So, if we went there and said 2:30. All right. So, from that point, were you up? Yes. So, let's just take from 3:00 just to show you what 3:00 would have done. Would 3:00 have gotten you up on the name as well? Yes, it would have. So, what happened? Retail puked institutions bought and you can go through the you can go through the names litany line by line and see it.
So, here's SanDisk got an upgrade. Remark this off and just always take a look at the first hour of trading. So easy to see. Came down here, stop hunted everybody. After they stop hunted everybody, what did they do? They ripped it. And then what happened towards the last hour? And you can actually see from 2:30 on it wasn't that great. But from that last hour on up, you had nothing but buyers. So they let retail puke upon themselves. They undercut, stop hunt them, and then they go and buy the names they want. I think this is far from over, but that doesn't mean that you're not going to get volatility. And this is really going to lead us eventually and we'll do it on Saturday. You have to start looking at whether or not you're day trading and swing trading, what kind of trading you're doing. I compartmentalize my trades. It makes my life a lot easier.
And now in all seriousness, let's get to this NBIS because I think that this is important. Everybody seems excited about Liupold. I, you know, I'm joking half, but I don't really get why somebody would spend 20 what what do you have? 12% more, 22 points because some someone else bought the stock. You're up 10% because someone built a 5% position in it. And I understand that he knows everything. If he knew everything, where was he at 30 bucks? I would always tell you guys to be super careful when you see this kind of thing. But people are going to do what they want to do and people are going to have to make their own decisions. But when everybody on Twitter is getting excited, you're probably at the tail end of it. And I'm going to I'll point to something in a moment here because it you have to look at it and say to yourself, where are you? Like where are you in the food chain? Like if everyone knows that, you know, Leopold bought this thing and everyone's all giddy about it by tomorrow morning, who's left? There's nobody left to buy it. Institutions are not looking at this going, "Oh, thank God. Leopold's here to save us. They're not doing that, right? So, it's a retail thing and retail's getting excited about it. Shorts might be trapped in having that oh crap moment. Yeah, that could be happening. If it pushes, great. I wouldn't be surprised to see it roll over on this and that they just dump it to retail. That wouldn't surprise me in the least. But we have to understand something with these kinds of trades. You have to look at where you are in the food chain and then make a decision.
So, I'll give you a great example of this. And I want to be really clear. I'm half joking about the NBIS thing because to me I get that and it's a name that we've traded in and out of the community since about like 30 bucks. You've had a lot of guys that were all over this thing. Citron was in that thing in like the high teens. I think it was like 19 or 20. He was telling people to take a look at it. Goldman was on that thing at like 38 bucks. So, you know, when it's 11x to get excited because some guy's buying it. I don't know. Just seems kind of silly.
But if we take a look at Avis, you know, nobody had any interest in this thing. No one. And if you've been following these videos for some time, we knew that as soon as this hit that 52- week scan that everyone was going to start looking at it, meaning the first group of people that actually do some work and they were going to start looking at this thing kind of sound cranky. They were going to start looking at this and saying, "Oh, this is hitting a 52- week high. What's the short position? What's the catalyst?" Blah blah. Start looking into the story. If you go look at your social media and what's going on in social media right now, I've got a great example of this that I can show you guys like an intraday great example of this. So, all of a sudden, you start seeing everybody start talking about it. This was social media peak where everybody was there saying, "Oh, it's going to be the next GME. It's going to be this. It's going to be that." Into this, we were actually selling our calls in stock. And then we started buying puts the same day. And then this day, we added to the puts and kept them. And we did exceptionally well. Obviously with this trade and I walk through parts of this and the point that I'm getting at here is like when you see this kind of thing you have to look at this and say where am I? So you're at that part where some people on social media have seen this and then by tomorrow morning everybody's going to have seen it right. So you you have to think about what your window is on that trade. I hope that makes sense because when you understand what your window is, it allows you to figure out where you are as I like to refer into the food chain with something like this. You know it could carry over. They might love Leopold in Asia and they might go crazy and buy it overnight and you might come in tomorrow and it be up. You don't know but you have to realize that why it's moving and then after you know why you have to think about who knows what I know and then go from there. That's where the edge is.
For example, today what I think was the biggest announcement was Meta going subscription and this was in the information and one of our services for news picked this up immediately and I I couldn't figure out for the life of me like why it wasn't going up even more. So I let it settle down and then after it settled down I watched the turn. Once we see the turn I'm like okay we're getting that kind of cup in here so maybe they're starting to get it. I find this kind of stuff really surprising because you have to look at this and say to yourself like where am I in the food chain and then do people understand this news or not understand this news and so by the end of the day with especially market people are going to start watching the stock move start understanding the news and then go from there so I'll give you an example of this let me just drop in these pieces so that you could say it and so just put this over here and here and I got a lot going on so I do have to do this roll and unedit it tonight it is what it is so I just come out and say meta is going subscription Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp. It's huge. I couldn't figure out why it wasn't moving. So, what I did was I did it with a very tight stop under right under that cup. And you can see the cup right there. So, right under that cup, we're going to put the stop and then we're just watching it start to lift. And then as soon as it starts to lift, I'm like, "All right, that's it." And I went with it. You weren't getting any selling at all. And I I had enough support in there for me to think that it was going to hold. Nevertheless, it did. So, the question is now, what do you do with it? Well, we're trimming into it. And then around 220 is the time stamp on this. And this will take you to 222. And you'll see when we trimmed and we got the pop out of it. And so if I show you this and I'll get rid of this. So all of a sudden you see these levels and you see that we're lifting. And then we just start pushing. Well, why do we push through all that? Go look at social media and the timing of all those posts when everybody was going Meta's going to do this, Meta's going to do that. Meta is going to go to subscription base. From that point on, if you look at this trade from that point on to here and we measure this as the entire trade. So there's our entire range, right? So our entire range on the day from top to bottom is $28, right? Instead of rushing into it, allowing the news, digest it all, read it, make sure we understand it, and then say, I can't figure out why it's not moving. It's not moving because it's not socialized enough. Like it's not out there, right? So now you know, okay, where it's good news, but where are we on the food chain? People don't understand it yet. All right, cool. By the time they finally got it, you pull that part of the move out. That's $15 out of the $28 of the entire range. And that whole part happened because it spread on social media. That's why when I see things like this moving with the NBIS and those kinds of names, I make jokes about it, but eventually the music on that those kinds of trades tend to stop. You got to figure out where you are when that news hits and then act accordingly, right? It's no different than when you understand earnings and then you get involved in an earnings trade.
So, if somebody understood snow tonight, and this was not on my radar tonight, I was focused on Philip Packard. But if you understood snow and you know exactly what you're looking for, and then you see what you're looking for, and you're buying into that bar, you're way ahead of the people that like myself that are waiting, trying to understand it, going through it, and then setting these things up, going, "All right, well, I'm going to buy this bar in here, and I'm just going to use my break even as a stop." someone else is getting that trade in here because they did the work and they know what they're looking for. So the minute it hits it, they just print it. They just buy it, right? For someone like myself, I have to digest it and then I have to go through it and say, "Well, where am I in that food chain?" And the way that after hours, you have minutes. You can still catch like 1 2 3 minutes later. After that, it's pretty digested. So you do have some time there still. But the faster that you understand what it is, the quicker you can move. So, someone that understood how important Leopold was in the world, try to say it with a straight face, you know, they're buying 213 NBIS, right? Versus the guy in here that's buying that breakout because now he realizes that, you know, Liup hold is the cat's pajamas. All right, that's it.