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WELCOME BACK. WE'VE GOT A BUNCH OF KEY PRIMARIES COMING UP THIS SUMMER IN RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE HOPING THEY'LL BE ABLE TO COMPETE IN THE FALL. AND WHILE DEMOCRATS ARE INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THEY CAN OVERCOME REPUBLICANS' NARROW MAJORITY AND RETAKE THE HOUSE, THEIR PATH TO VICTORY IN THE SENATE IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED. JOINING ME NOW TO BREAK IT DOWN IS OUR NBC CHIEF DATA ANALYST, STEVE KORNACKI. SO STEVE, GIVE US THE REALITY CHECK HERE. HOW REALISTIC IS IT THAT DEMOCRATS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO RETAKE THE SENATE? AND IF SO, WHAT IS THEIR PATH IN ORDER TO DO SO?
YEAH, MEL, I GUESS THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS HOW REALISTIC DO YOU THINK IT IS FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN IN NOT ONE, BUT TWO PRETTY DEEPLY PRO-TRUMP STATES? THAT'S WHAT THEY'D HAVE TO DO TO GET THE SENATE. LOOK AT IT THIS WAY. HERE'S THE BIG PICTURE MAP. DEMOCRATS NEED A NET GAIN OF FOUR SEATS IF THEY'RE GOING TO TAKE BACK THE SENATE. NOW, THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR THEM IS THEY DON'T WANT TO LOSE ANY GROUND. THEY'VE GOT TO PROTECT A COUPLE SEATS HERE. THE THREE YOU'RE THINKING OF THERE, IT'S JON OSSOFF IN GEORGIA. IT'S ALSO DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MICHIGAN. THEY DON'T WANT TO LOSE ANY OF THOSE. THAT WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY AND MAKE THE DEMOCRATS' PATH PROBABLY TOO STEEP, TOO STEEP. BUT IF THEY DO WIN THOSE THREE, HOLD ON TO THEM, THEN THEY STILL NEED THAT NET GAIN OF FOUR SEATS AND THEY'D BE LOOKING TO DO IT PROBABLY FROM THIS LIST. THESE ARE THE SIX REPUBLICAN SEATS THAT I THINK TO SOME DEGREE, FOLKS THINK ARE GOING TO BE IN PLAY THIS YEAR.
NOW AGAIN, DEMOCRATS NEED FOUR. YOU COULD LOOK AT MAINE, SUSAN COLLINS RUNNING IN A STATE THAT ALREADY DIDN'T VOTE FOR TRUMP. THAT'S THE MOST REALISTIC FOR DEMOCRATS. OF COURSE, COLLINS HAS SURVIVED IN SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS BEFORE, BUT THAT COULD BE ONE FOR DEMOCRATS. NORTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATS EXCITED ABOUT THEIR CANDIDATE THERE, THE FORMER GOVERNOR, ROY COOPER. TRUMP ONLY WON IT BY THREE POINTS. THAT'S NOT UNREALISTIC AT ALL FOR DEMOCRATS, THAT COULD BE TWO. BUT THEN DRAW A LINE THERE BECAUSE THE COMPLEXION POLITICALLY OF THESE STATES CHANGES. OHIO, ALASKA, IOWA, TEXAS. DEMOCRATS HOPING TO KNOCK TO A PICKUP REPUBLICAN SEATS HERE, ALL OF THEM DOUBLE-DIGIT STATES FOR DONALD TRUMP. THESE AREN'T JUST RED STATES. THESE ARE, IN THE TRUMP ERA, THESE ARE VERY RED STATES, CERTAINLY IN 2024. AND THE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE IS JUST DIFFERENT IN RED STATES.
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. THIS FROM SORT OF A COMPILATION OF ALL OF OUR NBC NEWS, CNBC POLLING. OUR POLLSTERS PUT THIS TOGETHER HERE. TRUMP STATES. THAT'S WHERE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRATS NEEDING TO WIN AT LEAST TWO OF THOSE SENATE RACES HERE VERSUS SWING STATES. VERSUS HARRIS STATES' VIEWS OF DONALD TRUMP IN SWING STATES, THEY'RE ALMOST TEN POINTS MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE. IN TRUMP STATES, TRUMP IS ABOVE WATER BY THREE POINTS. VIEWS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. THEY'RE NOT GOOD ANYWHERE, 23 POINTS NEGATIVE IN SWING STATES, BUT ALMOST TEN POINTS WORSE THAN THAT IN RED STATES. VIEWS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. THEY'RE NOT THAT GOOD ANYWHERE, BUT THEY'RE ALMOST EVEN IN THESE TRUMP STATES. SO AGAIN, IF DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO WIN BACK THE SENATE THIS YEAR, THEY GOT TO PROTECT ALL THEIR SEATS. BUT THEY GOT TO WIN TWO OF THIS GROUP OF FOUR. THEY PROBABLY HAVE TO WIN TWO OF THIS GROUP OF FOUR IN A VERY, MUCH LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN ALL THE STATES TO TRUMP THAN YOU'RE GOING TO GET IN THE AVERAGE SWING STATE.