Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosaba here with an update on wave structure and liquidity and what is going on with Bitcoin here. Uh, this came down a little bit too far for a spring. This doesn't really look like a spring anymore for reaccumulation. And basis for that is saying, well, this was your range and you broke below the range. Just take this break down and you're already below where a spring should have landed. So this to me is no longer a spring. It is marked down into redistribution into a markdown. And from here maybe you get a reaccumulation. And what reaccumulation could look like is similar to the distribution pattern up top. Ah, come on. Something like this, which would happen down here. Maybe a little lower.
The way that I'm thinking about this is this is not really a one, two, three, four, five. labeled like this. Even though the wave four looks good, the wave five comes down to an extension that's acceptable, it does not have a bullish divergence on the daily here between waves three and four. So, this now is looking a lot more like an ABC and it's measuring as such. where you would have this being A, B, and C. I think C's got a little further to go for now until, you know, something changes. And I think at the bottom of this C leg here, you would have a bullish divergence locally here on the daily. So, you do have a breakout on the daily RSI. closed beyond it. Yeah. So, what you look for is a breakout and potential back test of that giving you a slight bullish divergence for uh evidence of a bottom being in.
So, if that is an ABC, what is that in the overall structure? This can be wave one. This is moving into a wave two. Potential for a 4-year cycle low that takes its sweet time here. Pops back up and gives you a higher low in the future. I still think in the years to come this will go substantially higher, probably higher than expected. But for now, I'm looking at this as let me draw it out. looking at this leg matching this leg. There's your connector. So, there's an ABC in there. And current expectation is for this to repeat somewhere here or ultimately swing down lower. I I have 52, 52,000 as a potential target, but this 49,000 is wave four um from the previous cycle. So, this certainly can capitulate down into there for a wave two. That that's pretty deep, but it's in the cards. Um to get the buy setup here, you just need an uptrend, and you don't have that. You may have some kind of ABC here giving you a slightly higher high, giving you the possibility for a higher low. uh but given the context and the uh RSI divergence that is not there yet on the daily, I think this is going to be a wave four pushing down into a wave five, which I would label here as one, two, three, four is in the making. I think four might get you up to 75 or ultimately a push down. Really, it's just mimicking what was going on up here. Kind of do the same thing down here and then trudge sideways for a while, maybe for months. Um, you may be repeating this whole um distribution range down here for what did that take? Three months. That was July to October of 2025. You may have the same thing happening here into like April.
There is a possibility for this to of course just reverse from here without giving any divergence. You certainly do have a lot of volume there. So some buy orders were found there and you had a very nice rebound. That rebound is looking to me like it's creating a range. I'd look for that to be the range. You're not really broken out. You're not making a higher high yet. Um, but this is likely to be range for the next week or two. So given the context of of that getting a nice reversal looking candle without bullishly engulfing the previous um, this is this candle should be your range and the Fibonacci retracements on on this locally here or just take it from these these highs here and say that is a potential for a wave three coming down. Turn it to linear scale. The wave three down usually gets a retrace of the 382 and the 50%. So seeing as you kind of rejected the 382, it's a common area the shallow retrace after coming down, the shallow retrace is getting some push back and this is likely to do some form of ABC here. Is it done here or does it go lower? You definitely can go lower, but maybe Friday is going to be a bullish day, but eventually you make it up to 75, which would be your sell setup for a potential push down for a wave five.
So, the measurements are all there. The the wave structure looks right. And when you think of things in context of accumulation distribution, you had your push down and a redistribution. You should have a reaccumulation before um getting a spring and a markup or reaccumulation. So this trend is very much intact still. You have, you know, lower lows and lower highs throughout. This is still a lower high until it's not. So, if this does close at 75, um, then you'd have the opportunity for a higher high, but seeing as as it's just a 50% retrace of this larger move down, I'd say that's probably a sell setup and 80K is still a sell in my view right there until it's not. So, first I'd like to invalidate the cell setup at 75K right there at the 50% retrace. It'll be that previous support. It's probably going to flip into resistance. That kind of fits and makes sense. So, I'd say that's your sell setup right there. If you do have price push down or reject off the 75 to 755 area and come and close a lower low on like a 4 hour, then you have another sell at the range highs at 70k. Um, right now this this certainly can go break below. If you are in a quote unquote wave four, you would have an ABC type of thing. But the Bwave can go, it can go break the low. So you may get price coming down to 55, 56,000, pop back up, and that'll be your wave four or even an expanded flat wave four that gets you up to that 50% target. And then after that, you would potentially get that final leg lower down for wave five. That could get you down to, you know, below below 50K or potentially stops at 52, 53, which is a target.
So, if you get something that looks like that, you would have one, two, three drives to a low. You should have two drives of bullish divergence on a daily. Um, and that would look more like a bottom where you have pushes down that that just seem to relentlessly go down. Then you lose interest and then out of there you have the potential for wave one to get you probably up to that 80,000 at that point. Maybe fills the CME gap at 84. Gives you the higher high to then buy the higher low at previous supports. Probably comes deep if I had to guess. And then out of there you'll have wave one, two, and then the next the next wave may take its time here. [snorts] Let's give that scenario. Let's say you get a Bwave that is slightly higher low or push into that 755 area and then get the push down. You'd be mimicking what price is doing up here and then your range becomes a larger range here similar to that wave one coming from there. Higher higher low. goes sideways for a while, but then eventually pushes up for wave three up to grab liquidity there. Very shallow wave four and a five to take out maybe 117 to 118 area here. And that would be mimicking how price action did this and then out of there you get this repeating over here into a higher low because from there to there that's a higher high. There's your higher low at previous supports again and push up. So you might get a 1 118 to 120 read and then back down to 80K sometime later on in the year.
So if price happens to follow this trajectory, we would repeat this. That would be repeating that triangle but going for an expansion into a contraction here. That was an expanding triangle. You go into a contraction triangle just to mimic that. And out of there, you get your break up. And then this little ABC pattern that actually probably repeats from 100K back down to 80. And then pop up for this extended wave, giving you a one, two, very shallow three into a four extended five just to match that up to there. [snorts] Then out of there comes another pattern like that back down to 80K that you can start repeating some some uptrend stuff. So this will ultimately be a reaccumulation range into a 4-year cycle low on a higher low being a one two and you're about to one two back up and continue the uptrend. But maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but given the the way that this is coming down, it it screams like cycle low type things. Like we're getting an early cycle low and likely to have a left translated cycle coming up in the next cycle. So this one hits early and you may have topped early in this cycle and it just overthrew it and came back down. So you just want liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, and then you can repeat the cycle the same way this was. I mean, targets are still up there pretty high. Um, I think I gave that in a video about a month or two ago where it's it still looks like a half a million coming in the next cycle. It may come pretty fast. At least that's what it looks like to me. But one step at a time, you still need a higher high, higher low. So, you still don't really have a buy setup here until you start changing the trend.
We're at 66666. There you go. 66,666. That may be a magic number for a while as it was back over here in 2024. I remember price had some some pivots right at that 66,666 It actually became quite comical the way that happened, but I think you're at the uh point of control of that range. Yeah, you put a fixed volume on there on that range. You're right there. There's your P control value area high value area low. Um, so yeah, maybe you get down to the value value area low again at 60K. But price wanted to trade back in this range. And there it goes. It may have to take out these lows in order to resume higher. That's very common in Elliot wave theory where your your ABC or your wave two will come out and take out your wave four. Uh to me this still looks like wave five would have completed here ABC down and then an overthrow back up and then expanded flat. But the wave four could have completed here for a one two one two one two three four five four five completing wave three. Wave four comes back down and almost touches the top of wave three for an extended fifth wave up. That works. And then you would have a one, two, and going to be going to the upside from cycle low. You'd have maybe wave five or yeah, wave five up there for a wave 1. wave two comes and takes out wave four in the lower degree and then and you're off to the races. But again, one step at a time, you need to change your trend. And I think the trend from the last cycle has changed.
So you do certainly have an area where supply is going to come in because of how much lower this low is currently closed. your supply should come in up there. That would be your lower high like on a weekly scale. So, you do have a weekly candle close, lower low. And this is where supply comes in for now at 108, 10, 110 something like that. We'll see how the the wave up or the retrace comes. But that's technically your cell. Especially if you break above this 98,000, that rejection there. You break above that, then that's that's signaling that you're coming up for this liquidity up here, pull back down, find support, previous support, and then you can go. Um, so that is a valid cell setup there on a weekly scale to say you make it up to 111, then of course you get the head and shoulders pattern and maybe the head and shoulders pattern plays. I think we likely will see a lot of that in the future where you have a valid head and shoulders pattern. That's your sell and price pushes down to 80 and finds support. you know, kind of that that's kind of what I'm looking for here. Hammering out a low, probably going sideways, probably going to be boring, kind of repeating that type of thing over here. I think from a from a from a wave structure standpoint, accumulation distribution. I think that makes the most sense to just go sideways here and repeat that while you're having a that that triangle idea. where this was expanding. And over here, you repeat that from potentially lower. Maybe from right here, you have the contraction that would appear as a wave four, something like that. I think you'd have a lot of Elliot wave people that may say, "Well, that that's a wave four triangle." And I wouldn't necessarily disagree either because any consolidation should be a continuation pattern and you need to look in the same direction as the trend primarily. But if the pattern is matching, then there's an opportunity potentially for a reversal where you repeat that leg back up. So opportunities abound, but you may have to wait for it. It may it may wear you out. It may take over the next couple months. It may take two or three months. It may take five months. Who knows? Um, just take your time with it. Take your time with it. Then, uh, the opport you can see the opportunities as they come. Um, personally, I'm kind of looking for this leg to repeat somewhere down here, telling me to buy the deep retrace and then see where it goes. probably have to wait it out for a month or two. I hope that makes sense. Let's look for potential trade setups and what things are are shaking up to be here. Um, given the context of the Fibonacci retrace that I was looking for, this high to that low, hitting the 382, rejecting off the 382, ultimately targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, expecting this to be a wave four. Um, I would take a Fibonacci measurement and see if it potentially plays out cuz this is some kind of a this is going to be some kind of Bwave for the 1 one to hit 75. You would look for a Bwave potentially as low as 63, 63800. And that would take out this liquidity here that would fill in the weekly wick. You're right at the 50% of the weekly wick right now, which is a common area to find the strong buyers. So, this would have to close a higher high to then buy the higher low. Um, if it comes out of right where we're at now, the target is a little bit higher than I would want. So, I'm kind of looking for that 75 because often you'll find that rejection. But if price does an ABC from here, you'd be targeting 76, 77, which would get these this little area here consolidation. The way that would potentially look, if I could draw it out here, if the patterns do repeat, look for that leg to repeat from somewhere around here. And as soon as you see that, you should have a spike down a few tags before reversing and moving up to 75, maybe 76 from here if it if it wants to get there. But it would probably look something like that. Um, this leg can be complete. It can be seen as complete. Um, but you do need a higher high. And locally here on a one hour, you do have higher highs and higher lows coming out of here. that that the 1 hour trend to the upside has to result in a 4hour higher high close then you can buy the higher low probably at the daily open. If that ends up happening that might happen in New York session tomorrow. So maybe overnight this goes up to there repeating that leg and then New York open flushes down and then over the weekend it pops up grabs liquidity and if that is a wave four like I suspect what you would see is a close back under here giving you the lower low to sell the lower high at previous resistance for the push down into your capitulation leg down to 52 or something like it. So, I'd look for a sell around 75, 76. And if this leg pushes down like this, I would look for another sell at around 71 and take profits. There's a break of the lows and honestly probably have to try to look for a buy setup at 53 all the way down to 40, 48 something like that if it does end up playing. So know your invalidations, know your stop losses. If you want to wait for the 4hour trade setup, you would wait for price to reject here. Come and close a 4 hour lower low and your lower high comes there. Stop loss goes at the high. If you get into the lower time frames and you want to attempt a sell setup at 75, wait for a 1 hour trend change or maybe some sideways over a weekend or something like that. And then price just drops off into next week and then a recovery for a few days into Goblin Town essentially. So that's what I'm looking at for now. Those are the trade ideas and setups that I've got coming up. You can follow along on Slice if you want to join. I'll leave a link in the description down below. But those are my uh my ideas, the trade setups of where I'm looking at. Look for the 50% retrace of wave three around 75, 76 for this leg to repeat here for a push up into a rejection down rejection back up and down. This may look like a very extended ABC. It might go pretty pretty quick. If we do get a leg like that and also if you do get push up for a higher high close up there on a daily, you do have the opportunity to buy down here cuz you would have a higher high. This would be your higher low at liquidity for a push up. So there is a little buy setup bounce there and then if it just continues it it does then you'll be chasing that up as soon as it breaks above 75. if that makes sense. Um, a lot of a lot of things are going to go on around a bottoming area, a lot of chop, a lot of liquidity. Um, you could see this as people very bullish, which you know, agreed it's a bullish candle, but price keeps pushing down into it. So, they're still reaccumulating, or so it would seem. So, maybe it comes up for for a breather before capitulating. I don't know. I don't I don't push the price around. I just react to to how it's doing. Um, so those are my ideas. Keep them stops tight and have a good night.