Transcription
All right, welcome to this week's episode of Double Line Minutes. I'm Jeff Mayberry with Mark Kimbro. Hey. Hey.
It's 10 a.m. Pacific time here, August 1st. Uh, a busy day today. Uh, but from a from a market recap standpoint, let me go through what happened in July. First, and then we'll kind of cover what happened for the week. And, uh, today it does seem like the movements today, the action today kind of overwhelmed everything else going on in the week. Um, which was a pretty busy week even, uh, before today.
But if we get into the, uh, let's look at stocks first for the month of July. S&P was up 2 and a quarter percent. Looks like the big winner was utilities, up almost five. Uh, but tech right behind there, up 3.6%. Uh, the big loser was healthcare, down 3 and a quarter percent. Uh, and, um, there's a couple other, uh, let's see, it's pretty mixed bag there. Com services down 1%, financials, materials, real estate down inside of 10 basis points. So, you know, half the sectors were positive, half the sectors were negative. Uh, so a mixed bag there for the S&P for the month of July. Uh, Russell 1000, uh, was up 2.2%, Russell 2000 up 1.7. So those large caps, larger caps were outperforming the smaller caps. Growth were actually pretty good, up 3.8%. Uh, value up only 60 basis points or so. And, uh, talking about the breadth there, the S&P equal weight was only up 1% on the month of July. Pretty good, uh, year so far though. Up 8.6% for the S&P, um, 13.3% for tech, and, uh, the lone negative sector, or not the lone, there's a consumer discretionary down 75 basis points, but healthcare down 4.3%. So the big loser there is healthcare.
Um, this shift over to the bond market for the month of July. Um, rates were up on the month with the 10-year at 4.38, up from 4.23 at the end of June. Uh, so a 15 basis point move there. Two-year up a whopping 24 basis points to 3.96 on the month, up from 3.72 there. So a negative month there for the, uh, your typical traditional sectors of the, uh, US aggregate index, which was down, uh, quarter of a point. Uh, governments were down 40 basis points, just right in line there with agency mortgages. And, uh, given the current backdrop and the strong fundamentals and spread tightening, uh, the, uh, actually investment grade corporate bonds actually eeked out a positive seven basis point return there for the month of July. High yield up half a point, bank loans up 80 basis points, and EM, the big winner out of these sectors that we look at here, uh, with up one and a quarter percent on on the month. Still on a year-to-date basis though, up, uh, 3 and 3/4%.
Finally, uh, rounding it out, let's look at commodities. Uh, Bloomberg Commodity Index down half a percent. Uh, energy up 2.5. Industrial metals was the big loser, down 6.3%. Uh, with copper down 14% on the month. Um, a lot of that was just due to the tariff kind of unwind of the tariff move from earlier, uh, earlier in the quarter. So it was kind of an interesting, uh, interesting move there in copper. A lot of V, uh, even for commodities, a lot of V there for the, uh, copper market. Mark, I don't know if you have anything else to add for the month and or you want me to get right into the, uh, the week-to-date numbers.
>> I don't have anything. I actually just want to draw. Yeah, jump right into the week to date because it's, it gets interesting this week.
>> Yeah, you know, we were talking, Ryan and I were talking last week. Uh, we had five all-time highs last week in the S&P 500. That continued on Monday. Looked like we were rip roaring, uh, and then, uh, kind of the, the bottom fell out of the market. You know, just a 30 basis point move on down on Tuesday. Wednesday, kind of similar, 20, 12 basis points. Uh, and then yesterday, a negative 40 basis points, but then today, the bottom fell out. We're down 1.3%. Uh, a lot of that kind of early in the early in the day due to kind of the, uh, I saw some people calling it liberation day 2.0, you know, with a lot more tariffs out there with, you know, no, no real, um, deferrals of the, of the starting deadline other than China and Mexico, which are obviously our two very big trading partners, but that drove some of the negative move in the market today. And then we'll get into the other part that drove a negative move in the market today further. But on the week, S&P down 2.4%. Utilities, the only sector positive on the week, up 1 and 3/4. Everything else negative. Your big, um, looking looks like your big, big kind of winner out of the negative sectors with com services down only 1%. Your big loser, materials, down 6% there. Russell 1000 down 2.2%. Russell 2000 down 3.8%. Growth down 1 and a half. Value down 3%. So big hit there for value on the week. And then, uh, S&P equal weight down 3.4%. So, uh, you know, other, if you were in that safer utility side of things, you did okay. Uh, but everything else, pretty, a pretty bad week there for the stock market.
>> It's just, what a difference a day makes. I mean, even those, those three days, like you said, it just kind of leading lower and then you get the big pop today or big blush.
>> Oh, you know, from, I guess this is why you have a diversified portfolio. On the flip side, uh, bond market did pretty well. The 10-year was down 16 basis points on the week. The 2-year down 21 basis points on the week. Uh, all of that really today, uh, for, for both of those. And, and the AG's up almost a percent on the week. Governments and agency mortgages up a percent. Um, you know, investment corporate bonds up a percent. Everything is really just, you know, driven by that rate move. Obviously, over the short term, that's really what happened there. Your high yield and your bank loans, slight negatives on the week, down about 10 basis points there. But EM up three-quarters of a percent. So EM kind of, um, shifting things and moving things a little bit differently than the other kind of riskier credit sectors in the market there. Commodities down 2.6% on the week. Energy, the energy and livestock, the only positive sectors there. Energy up to about 60 basis points there. Crude is up four. So driving a lot of that is that crude oil market. Industrial metals, kind of that, that tariff thing really on the happened during the week. So we are down 14% in the month of July, down 11 and a half percent on the week here today. So a lot of that, week is, or a lot of that movement has been this week. Um, precious metals actually, um, slight negative at negative 70 basis points there, but gold turning positive. So silver, the, the driver of that, that downward move there. Gold up 25 basis points on the week at 33.45 as of, uh, time of recording here. And that's it from. Oh, one thing about the market also wanted to bring up the dollar. We were back up to, we were back up to parity on the Dixie, and then today we're back down to 99. So it's a, you know, everyone loves that FX V, uh, and really we saw a lot of that V moving, uh, this week.
>> It's just a week of V. I mean, just looking at the again, commodities, dollar, it's, it's the rates, it's, and equities, it was just a week of introduced V, especially at the end.
>> We've been doing, I've been doing so many like quarter, quarterly reviews, and it was like, beginning of April, obviously a lot of V, kind of very smooth, quiet Vall since then. Uh, July was pretty quiet, even though it was busy for us. And then, bam, got a lot of V this week here. We'll see how April shakes out. A lot of times it's, uh, you get a little more V when there's, there's less people in the market, people on vacation, and, uh, you get a little bit of more, you know, larger moves and from an absolute return or absolute value basis. So we'll see what, uh, let's see. Hold on through for for August there, Kim, bro.
>> Yeah, strap in. It's, it's. Well, I can't wait to see what's happening. It's, it's been a super interesting week. And, uh, you know what? It's, I mean, down to dive into the eco data and kind of help rationalize some of these big moves. All right, let's do it. Uh, so let's start off. I'm going to try and gloss over a couple of these more than usual just because there is so much data this week. But, uh, let's start it off with, uh, Tuesday. We got the S&P Core Logic Home Price Appreciation numbers. Uh, this showed a little deceleration. It was the third month running, uh, with negative HPA for the 20-city month-over-month measure. It brings the year-over-year measure down to 2.79 from a prior 3.44. Uh, moving on to JOLTS job openings. First bit of labor data this week for the month of June. Uh, that printed at 7.437 thou, uh, thousand, sorry, 7.437 million job openings. That was 63,000 below estimates, 275,000 below the prior. I'm going to say, look, we had two months of, uh, openings rising and exceeding expectations. And this month, we gave back a little. Uh, we'll see if that is a continuation of the prior downtrend or if this is, you know, just a little blip as we're trying to have this data stabilize a bit as it's been doing the last six months. Um, the ratio of openings to unemployed still at 1.06. Um, this is still elevated compared to history. Absent the COVID era, you know, data going back to December of 2000, we didn't touch 1.06 on that ratio until 2018. So from that perspective, you can still say the labor market's a little tight, but let's get into the rest of the labor date on the week.
Uh, also on Tuesday, you got Conference Board Consumer Confidence for the month of July. Nothing's really changed in this since 2022. I'm going to say that the present situation is relatively good, and the expectations of the future are relatively bad, and the present keeps outperforming the expectations of the future. So not, not much to dwell on in that report.
Um, on Wednesday, though, we did get the US quarterly refunding announcement. Uh, it's closely watched report. No huge surprises here, but there are a couple things I want to highlight. Uh, this was nominal coupon and floating rate note auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next several quarters. Um, that implies, in that we now have the raise the debt ceiling, we have the, uh, OBBA Act, or OBBA Act, saying that twice. Um, we're going to need to fund that somehow. And that implies that since we're going to keep the nominal coupons and floating rate note, uh, auctions stable, that we're going to need to increase our bill issuance. And that has been stated before. It's a thought of, we don't want to issue a bunch of debt at our longer-term higher rates, or I guess longer-term rates that hopefully would come down. We'd rather refinance in the short end. And, uh, then later refinance those at lower rates. That's the hope, and we'll see how that actually comes out.
>> Yeah, there was some concern there that it was really going to be, >> heavily, heavily, heavily weighted towards the shorter end curve or side of the curve. Um, but I think that, you know, it was kind of steady as she goes. It was kind of as expected, you know, there was a worry that it was going to be. Yeah, there was some worry that it was going to be, >> so much on the short end, like cuz they're pushing, you know, the administration is pushing the the Fed to cut rates, and then they were going to try to kind of play off the back of that. But I think it was, uh, that would have caused some some market turmoil, especially in the T-bill market. So, at least they decided not to do that, at least this time.
>> And it was, yeah, it was cyber relief effectively following that announcement. So, kind of as expected. Um, also on Wednesday, going to really briefly cover this one, but it's somewhat, uh, well, you know what? ADP employment change for the month of July. Our, our early look to the NFP. Uh, it came in at a solid 104,000. That was 28K above estimates and 127K above the prior. I'm going to leave a quote here, uh, from the report. This is quote, "Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy. Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient." End quote. And I'll say that after that, I said, I said to everybody on our, on our team that, you know, strong ADP means weak payroll data.
>> We'll see how that, we'll see how that played out.
>> Yeah. Let's, you know, announce on our front run it. We'll, we'll keep everyone in suspense and, uh, see how that works out. Um, moving forward, also on Wednesday, we had GDP for the second quarter. This is the advanced estimate, uh, annualized. Uh, came in at a solid 3%. That was 0.4 above estimates and 3.5% above the prior. Um, we've talked about this in numerous times in recent months. Uh, a lot of the volatility that's going on with the trade negotiations and whatnot. It really impacts these numbers, especially the net net exports figures and the change in inventories figures. Um, so trying to give a couple numbers here. I want to give them in the context of the first half, not just Q2. So headline, we printed, uh, first half, I pop up here, blocking my numbers. First half came in at 1.2% annualized. That is not strong growth. Consumption. Uh, it came in this quarter at 1.4% annualized versus 0.5% last quarter. Uh, that, that's a first half of 0.9%. That's a majority of our economy, and that is relatively weak. Uh, it's the weakest we've seen basically since the co era, since the, you know, the slowdown that happened in co. Um, just digging through this report in general, it just was not a very strong report, and I'm kind of going to leave it at that. Uh, you know, there's one other thing that Powell mentioned, and it was mentioned a lot of, uh, reporting after the release. Uh, it's private domestic final purchases. It's kind of, uh, it's a combination of consumer spending and private fixed investment. It's trying to reflect just general domestic demand. Uh, that came in in the first half at 1.6%. It decelerated in the second quarter. Um, that 1.6 is the weakest we've seen since 2022. So not ideal. It's just showing this general softening in the economy, um, that we're seeing.
Uh, also on Wednesday, again, talked about Powell. I'm not going to front run that. We'll talk about it in warp later, but we did get, uh, the unchanged federal funds rate at 4.5%. Uh, we had two centers, Bowman and Waller, who wanted to cut rates. Uh, but again, we'll talk about that a little later on.
Um, on Thursday, we get another labor data point. We get the Challenger job cut announcements for the month of July. Uh, this came through at 62,000. That was 14K above the prior. Um, these numbers. Look, you can try and slice this as you wish and kind of create your own narrative, but I, I saw talk saying this was the most amount of job cut announcements in a July since 2020. Um, I think that's slicing it a little thin, but, uh, you mean, you, we're kind of right in line with the average we've seen for the last 20 years, call it 10, 20 years. Um, or since, uh, July of 2020. So I'd say that the job announcements are still mostly government jobs. Was lately this month, it was technology sector kind of leading the way. Uh, it's, you know, attributed to AI and uncertainty around work visas, but so far year to date, most the announcements were related to Doge, and that has slowed down since.
Uh, moving forward, we have personal income and spending for the month of June. Uh, this came in on Thursday. We had income come in at 0.3%, that was 0.1 above the estimates and 0.7% above the prior. While spending came in also at 0.3%, uh, it was 0.1% below estimates and 0.3% above the prior. I'm going to dig into this a little bit here. I think there were some interesting details. Uh, your headline print on a more precise basis was 28 bips versus a six-month average of 43 bips. So a bit of a deceleration there in this print. Um, within that, you get compensation. Think wage growth makes up, you know, about 60% of the total, uh, income growth or income, uh, in the country. And that was only up 18 bips on the month. It contributed about half as much as it's been contributing over the last six months. Most of the other sorts of income, call it, you know, rental income, dividend, dividend and interest income, uh, business owners income, they were all relatively flat this month, but what wasn't was transfer receipts, and that popped back up. It actually made up about two-thirds of the income growth this month. Um, it's just interesting to note that that's it's this seemed like a relatively weak report, even though the income came in at 0.3. You can't bank on transfer receipts being two-thirds of your, your income growth every month. Uh, it's been kind of heavy this year. Last year it spiked in January due to cost of living adjustments, and this year it's kind of more spread out these first six months. So we'll see how that continues to develop. But I think a relatively weak income report because of the wage growth, uh, coming in at 0.18% month over month.
Um, on the spending front, uh, you know, good spending, it's been a little volatile. Uh, services spending has been pretty stable, but spending as a whole has been trending down. If you look at it on a six-month moving average, this is the slowest rate we've been growing since, uh, the contraction in 2020. So, I'll say spending a little, little weak, but, uh, income, it's, it's hanging in there. It's, it's if not for the transfer receipts, I would have a little more confidence in it, but, uh, it's, it's not trending down. It's kind of just oscillating back and forth.
Um, also on Thursday, we're almost through the, the week here again. Big week of economic data. Uh, we get PCE for the month of June. Uh, the headline and core numbers month over month came in at 0.3%. That was right in line with estimates and both 0.1% above the prior. Uh, the headline year-over-year number came in at 2.6%. That was 0.1 above estimates, 0.2 above the prior. And the core number, the Fed's preferred measure year-over-year came in at 2.8%. Uh, that is 0.1% above estimates and right in line with the prior. Um, in general, look, we've been seeing continuation of deceleration in core services, uh, and service in general, and core, you know, and goods have been on the upswing. So we'll see if, uh, that upswing is a bit more goods, maybe only make up a third of the basket, but the acceleration, it's a bit faster than the deceleration we're seeing in services. So, you know, maybe if that persists, we see a little more upward pressure in PCE in the months to come, but we will see.
Um, also on Thursday, we got the employment cost index for the month, sorry, for the second quarter. Uh, this came in at 0.9%. That was 0.1% above estimates, right in line with the prior. Uh, we've actually seen 0.9% uh, this is not an annualized figure. It's a per quarter figure. Uh, but we've seen that for the last three quarters running, and we're up 3.6% year-over-year. I'm going to say that, look, I'm going to do a little, little quick math here. Labor productivity over the last 20 years is averaged 1.7%. If you got 3.6% on our labor cost increase, the difference there is about 1.9% being inflation. And on that, I'm going to say that's the inflation we'd want to see. And from that, I would say that that suggests that labor is not really a big source of inflation. This would support the notion that it's going to be more of the goods coming through, and that labor itself has, is again, say again, not a big source of inflationary pressure.
Um, on Thursday, we got initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Really not much to mention here. Um, I'm just going to state the four-week moving average for initial claims has declined for six weeks running. Um, while the continuing claims has declined for two weeks running. So, we'll see if that can help the jobs numbers stabilize a bit in the weeks to come. Uh, but that brings us to today, pizza Friday. Uh, we got the non-farm payrolls number for the month of July. Uh, that printed at 73,000. Uh, that was 31K below estimates and 59K above the prior. Uh, but that really doesn't do this print justice or this report justice. Um, it's the two-month net revision was negative -258,000 jobs erased. Uh, so that would suggest that doesn't suggest that adds up to say that we have 106k, 106,000 jobs added over the past three months, or year to date, we're averaging about 85,000 per month. Um, not many hairs are split here. This report was weak. If you wanted to find a silver lining, I can say that, uh, average hours worked per week increased more than estimates. And that literally is the only silver lining that I want to even mention from this. It was an overwhelmingly negative report.
>> I think it's pretty funny, Mark, that you were like, or, or not that you, but like, it's like 73K, that's 59 over last month. Yeah.
>> But like, that's only because last month got revised from 147,000 to 14.
>> Exactly.
>> And then, you know, the May got revised from 139 to 19. So 19 and 14, those are real low numbers.
>> Oh yeah. Tone would have been much different in recent months if that was the case.
>> We'll see. We'll see what this 73 gets revised down to. Um, you know, the revisions are definitely, you know, at least, uh, you know, so far this year, negative revisions. And so, we'll see with the 73. Does it go, do we go negative actually, or do we get, you know, a very small positive? It'll be interesting to see in the next, obviously we don't get that for a while now, but how, how much lower is this number going to be and how much weaker is the labor market according to this metric, accord, you know, what? And that's that's something briefly I want to mention on, and this is something that maybe we'll see in the the months or years to come, but population growth in the US. We've been dealing with low fertility rates and, and, you know, not a big increase in the population domestically, but we've had immigration come through to help it. If we're going to have a persistent slowdown in immigration, that would slow the number of people looking for new jobs. And you might not need as many jobs in the NFP report to kind of keep the U3 stable, but it, it's that's still, it's just going to make it a little harder to compare those numbers across time if we truly have a change that is sustainable, um, or sustained. Which that brings us to the household report, the U3 rate for the month of July. That came in at 4.2%, right in line with estimates, 0.1% above the prior, but it was a hair away from rounding up to 4.3. It was at 4.248%.
Um, this one I did not have any silver linings to highlight, even trying. I mean, this is at the high level at least. Everything was moving in the wrong direction. You know, your labor force is decreasing. We had that labor force participation rate, uh, decline from 62.3% down to 62.2. You had a decline in full-time jobs, an increase in part-time. Just in general, this was a negative labor report, and the market agreed. Um, and that was the response we've seen today.
Uh, and then lastly today, we got the ISM Manufacturing for the month of July. More of the same with with manufacturing. It's ongoing weakness. It's the fifth, uh, consecutive month of sub-50 prints for the ISM manufacturing PMIs. Uh, you're not going to, there's maybe a little bit of hope in here with respect to inventories and maybe demand in the future picking up because respondents are indicating that their inventories are a bit low, but in general, the demand characteristics are weak. Prices are still elevated, even though they improved this month. Just, just more of the manufacturing kind of malaise, um, that we've had. And that wraps up the week.
>> Yeah. And I think, uh, let's just take a step back to the Fed. And, and as you mentioned, Mark, there was a couple descents, and those people, uh, Bowman and Waller wanted to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and they seem kind of, uh, prescient now where, you know, Waller sent his, he put out a release this morning before the jobs number came out. So, you know, who knows whether they had the early look or or not. Uh, but, you know, he did say when when labor markets turn, they often turn fast. And so, you know, obviously we'll see how whether this is actually a shift or it's a sustained move here. Uh, but also on from an inflation front, which I thought was interesting. While there was said since we will likely not get clarity on tariff levels or their ultimate impact on the economy over the course of the next several months, it is possible the labor market falters before that clarity is obtained, if it is ever, if it ever is obtained. And so, you know, that's kind of interesting to think about the, uh, the idea that, you know, the tariffing impact is so slow moving. We don't know, you know, I was talking to clients this week and I was like, if we had like this July print of CPI and we knew what the tariff impact was, then it would be much easier to kind of gauge how things should move going forward. But because it's like very little bit in here, you know, companies seem to be absorbing a lot of the tariff costs now for now, you know, how the tariff impact could be pushed off or incrementally just increase inflation over time. And so seems like the Fed is kind of, kind of having that same takeaway where you don't really know what the tariff impact on inflation is going to be.
>> We're looking at that chart on Wednesday that was showing that there's, you know, estimates of it taking years. I mean, maybe you see the impacts in the first couple years, but it, it, there's a ripple effect. And so, yeah, the, the exact impact of these tariffs and how they ripple through the economy is not expressly known. It's, it's, and it's interesting, like the Fed was obviously, we obviously knew the Fed and the payrolls were coming out this week, and we're like, the Fed's really going to be nothing because they're not going to raise rates. The descents were really more like, it's easy to dissent when you know that it doesn't, it's not going to really affect things, right? It's not like it's a, it's a, um, you know, 5-6 vote or something like that to to actually raise, to actually cut rates. Um, so the descents are are pretty simple to to dismiss out there. But I think, you know, after one data point, two days later, it may kind of make sense that maybe that's what they were seeing. And really the market, the, the, the Fed meeting was pretty hawkish. Jay Powell was pretty hawkish, >> compared to what market, market expectations were. You saw going into the Fed meeting, the, I like, just look at the, you know, the number of cuts priced into the end of the year, um, because every, it's pretty noisy around, you know, the, the next meeting, which is September, September 17th, um, but, you know, really you were at like 1.8 cuts for the year. After the Fed meeting, it went down to 1.4, 1, 1.3 was kind of the low there on yesterday. And after the, after the payroll numbers today, we're at 2.3 cuts. So you, you basically added a cut into the market just on this payroll number today. So now the market's pricing in, you know, an 86% chance of a cut here in September. One and a half percent, one and a half percent chance of a cut. So like one cut plus a 50 basis points of 50% of another cut in October. And then we're up to 75% of an, an additional cut in December. So, markets really starting to feel like a little bit offsides here in terms of thinking that the labor market is weaker than they were expecting. Now, remember this happened last year, and we had a weak payroll number on the August release of July numbers, and everyone was like, the, the Fed's behind the curve. The Fed cut 50 in September. Long-term rates rose. So, do we see now? I don't think, you know, the market's really not pricing in that 50 basis point cut yet, but we do have another CPI on like the 12th, I think, of this month. And we get another payroll data and another CPI before the Fed. So, we got two more inflation numbers and a payroll number before the Fed makes it their next decision. Uh, so, you can see market shift pretty rapidly over the next six weeks. Um, and then of course, we also have Jackson Hole, which will get a little bit more of a, kind of a long-term thought on, on from Jay Powell, even though at that point he'll have what, like eight months left on his term. So what he thinks long term, maybe is not as important as what the, the next, the next Fed chairperson thinks. I fully agreed there. I got.
All right. Well, Mark, it's going, it was a very busy week this week. What, what do we have on for next week? It looks like it's going to be, uh, very quiet, hopefully. Compared to this week, basically nothing's happening.
Um, we're going to say on Tuesday, I'm look at the trade balance figures for June. Uh, just looking at import and export data, trying to get a little bit of a color on our trade deficit. Uh, also on Tuesday, we get ISM Services for the month of July. Uh, expected to stay in expansion territory, 51.5 versus the prior 50.8.
Um, moving forward to Thursday, just taking a peek in at non-farm productivity for Q2. Uh, expected to come in at 2%. That is 3.5% above the prior. Uh, we'll get our standard high-frequency jobs data on Thursday. Uh, I do have initial claims estimate of 223K. So a small pickup from this past week's data. Uh, then on also on Thursday, we get wholesale trade sales and inventories. Like to look at that for inventory to sales ratios. Uh, looking at the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for July. Okay, again, in a slow week, looking for some, you know, little more data, but again, inflation is, is seems to be less of a concern right now. It's more labor, but still need to take a peek. And then consumer credit for the month of June. Again, very backward-looking data, but nice to see the revolving and non-revolving breakdown. It's estimated to come in at 7.2 billion. And that's about all we have for next week on the economic front.
>> All right. Well, Mark, I wish you a very quiet week next week.
>> I think, I guess that wraps it. Yeah, that wraps it up for this week.
>> Uh, yes. Thanks to our listeners out there today on DL Minutes. Hit us up on the X at dline minutes or send us an email at minutes@doubleline.com with any questions, comments, or suggestions. Uh, don't forget to check out our YouTube channel, youtube.com/doublelinecapital. We have Jeff Sherman's Fed day appearance. He was on Fox Business talking about the shadow Fed. That was before, uh, Jay Powell spoke, so nothing about Powell on there. Uh, also we have Jeffrey Gunlock. He will be on CNBC on Monday at noon Pacific. Uh, so make sure to catch that. I'm sure that he will have very many thoughts about the Fed and the payroll data and kind of what's going on from here. All right, with that, thanks for tuning in and hope everyone has a great weekend.
Yes, thanks everyone. Stay safe out there and good luck.