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Over the past weekend in the Middle East situation, there have been adjustments, changes. They said the Strait of Hormuz was opened and an agreement was reached between the United States and Iran. The 14 conditions, they said, have been discussed and Iran agreed to open it. However, only a few hours later, Israel still attacked Lebanon, and there was fighting with Hezbollah. This caused Iran to close it again. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. And Mr. Trump is very upset, saying that if they can't reach an understanding, they might attack Iran again. But don't be alarmed, because currently, it's a parallel situation. On one side, they are negotiating for peace, with Pakistan as an important mediator. On the other side, there are still negotiations. Negotiations mean there might be some exchanges of fire, some attacks, between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah. However, Iran said they are closing the strait for now. The Strait of Hormuz. Now we can probably see that Mr. Trump's weakness is likely at the Strait of Hormuz. Because as soon as the oil price exceeds $100, every time Mr. Donald Trump will send signals about opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil price will adjust downwards. Now, let's discuss this, analyze the situation. Because July 4th is the National Day of the United States. Will they have to finish quickly before July 4th? And it's already past that. If we go to July, it's past the second week. Has this situation fully ripened yet? With Lieutenant General Dr. Somchai Virunhaphon, an international political science scholar. Let's have the professor analyze the situation for us. Hello, Professor. >> Hello. >> Yes, Professor, how do you see the situation? >> It's been a long time since we met, Professor, but the situation in the Middle East hasn't changed. It seems to open, but then it closes again because Iran seems to be unable to stop Israel from fighting. How do you see the situation? Because this opening and closing is a temporary ceasefire to rearrange the board again. Because Mr. Trump has threatened to attack Iran again. >> How should I order it? Let's start with the current situation. The current situation is that negotiations are going well. The latest I've followed today is that they will set up committees and working groups to discuss each case. This is a good sign, isn't it? Because they want to end the matter. But there's still the issue of Israel, which is still attacking Lebanon non-stop. And this will be the troublemaker because Iran says this is one of the conditions. Mr. Trump said there must be peace on all battlefields. >> Yes. >> This is what the market says, but Van says... >> Van says, "Well, it doesn't say Israel has to withdraw its troops." So it's an excuse, but it has to be resolved gradually. As for Iran, they use the method that since Israel doesn't comply with the conditions, they will close the Strait of Hormuz. But in practice, as far as I know, the US fleet has helped 55 ships to leave, and there hasn't been any problem yet. So, in words, they say it's closed, but in practice, it's still open. But before this, before the problem arose and Iran ordered it closed, Iran had actually opened it and didn't charge any fees. Because they said they wouldn't charge for 60 days. What happens after that is another matter. >> Trump is threatening, saying that after that, they will have to collect. Iran also says they didn't agree. We agreed on this much. This is the point. >> Now, let's follow up and see why this incident almost happened. While traveling, Israel continued to attack, even though sometimes they signed a ceasefire. They signed at 4 PM, 5:30 PM, and attacked again. They didn't honor the agreement at all. The Iranian representatives who attended the meeting were not very happy about this. As soon as they arrived, and before the meeting had progressed much, Trump posted a threat again, saying that if they didn't agree, they wouldn't have a country to return to, that he would destroy Iran. This caused the Iranian side to protest and withdraw from the meeting. The court had to call and persuade them to talk. So, the process continued. And Trump probably kept quiet for now, because he had been speaking well all along. But that's his nature. He likes to threaten people. >> So, the current situation is that it's still ongoing. If you ask if it will end after 60 days, it won't end. It can be extended because it's stipulated that if both sides agree, it can be extended. >> Yes. >> The problems that are still lingering are Israel's behavior. Israel has declared that it does not accept any ideas and will continue to attack. And this is causing a headache. Trump himself is threatening Iran to stop Hezbollah. Iran probably tells Trump, "Go stop Israel." The question is, can Iran stop Hezbollah? I think so. But can the United States stop Hezbollah? I think it's difficult. So, let's continue. >> Yes, Professor. Now, looking at this, who has the advantage or disadvantage at this negotiation table? Because the United States has the power to impose sanctions or the $300 billion that was said to be a fund to help Iran recover might not happen. But on the other hand, Iran says, "Well, we'll continue to close the Strait of Hormuz." That is, the global economy is in their hands. Who do you think has the advantage now? >> Right now, no one has the advantage or disadvantage. But let's see who wants this deal more. I believe Trump wants this deal because he has shown his stance all along. >> To the extent that he's willing to speak with Iran. Praising them, praising them. And when Israel attacked Beirut, and Iran was very angry, he came out to pacify them, saying, "Don't ruin the deal." >> Yes. And >> He threatened Israel to stop, and later asked the Saudis to handle it. You could call it a threat. >> But it doesn't seem to be very effective, because Israel is still attacking continuously. >> Because Israel itself does not want this to happen. It depends on what measures will be taken in future negotiations with the working groups, and part of it will be a committee working on this. >> Uh >> Yes. >> So, it can still move forward. I believe that even though Iran threatened to close Hormuz, in practice, as far as we know, 55 ships have passed. The US side said they would escort the ships. If Iran doesn't attack US ships, there won't be a problem. So, escort them. Just don't be unlucky and hit a mine, which is one of the risks. Because Iran has not yet... what do you call it... recovered the mines that have been laid. >> In some places. >> Ah, Professor, do you think the United States and Iran have a closer deadline? Meaning, who needs to finish faster? >> Ah, this point is interesting. As I said earlier, who wants this deal more? I think Trump does, and he has a deadline. Because Trump needs >> Uh, this work to announce on America's National Day, July 4th, right? >> Ah, so >> He will announce that he is a peacemaker, campaigning for it. And it will extend to what he wants, which is the midterm elections, around November. So, Trump, to the extent that he spoke well, but then made a mistake at the end when they were meeting. He didn't speak very well, but it passed. And nothing came out. As for Iran, they have nothing to lose. They are backed against the wall, like a poor person who can eat rice with salt. A rich person can't. So, Iran can endure it and drag it out as long as possible. Therefore, Iran has an advantage in this regard, in my opinion. However, if you ask if Iran wants it to end now? >> Iran wants to end it. >> Because they don't want to continue the war. >> Regarding the money you mentioned earlier, the $300 billion is not from the United States. Trump announced it, not because he was attacked a lot, saying, "Don't give taxpayer money to Iran." And Trump had scolded Obama before. >> And for the $300 billion, Trump explained indirectly that he couldn't stop Arab nations from investing together. I believe Trump's intention behind the scenes is to encourage them to invest and develop. >> But it hasn't happened yet. If Iran doesn't show progress in nuclear negotiations, Trump will still hold this money. That is, he won't open this mechanism. As for the frozen sanctions, they won't be lifted until Iran discusses nuclear issues and makes progress. This is clearly stated. And I think this is a condition that might make Iran feel uncomfortable. However, it has to be a give and take. The United States must also give something. They can't just not give anything. Another point, this is a rumor because the governments have denied it. For example, the UAE said they negotiated and gave Iran a certain amount of money. Saudi Arabia might have also given money, including Qatar. Why? To prevent Iran from attacking their facilities. If they attack, focus on military bases. There have been discussions about this, but each government has denied it. No one will admit it because it's a loss of face. So, in general, Iran has probably received some money by now, even if not directly from the United States. Therefore, the bargaining power regarding blocking money >> The United States may not have much because there are other channels, and it's not entirely US money. As for the money that >> is frozen, it has to be discussed in the first meeting. Sanctions are considered a significant card for the United States. But if you ask if Iran is suffering greatly, not much, because there are other channels for trade, including through Pakistan. >> Yes. >> Professor, where will the $300 billion come from? >> It's a joint contribution. >> Whose joint contribution? >> Saudi Arabia, UAE, mainly, and Qatar. >> Yes, because for them, hundreds of billions, two hundred billion, is a small matter. They can buy planes for the United States. They can invest hundreds of billions. They are not suffering. But if the war continues, they will suffer because they want it to end. >> But it's not just that. I must say that while the meeting was taking place in Switzerland >> there was another group of mediators, including Turkey, the Foreign Minister of Turkey, the Foreign Minister of Egypt, and the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, meeting in parallel in Egypt. To prepare for the situation: what if this happens, what if that happens? So, the players in this game are not just the United States and Iran. There are many players, including the Gulf countries, who will not stand idly by. They are trying to come in, whether to support the negotiations to end, or to find ways to solve future problems by meeting in parallel in Egypt. For their own peace, because if the war continues, they will suffer greatly. They can't export oil or gas, their income is stagnant. >> Uh, yes. Professor, it seems that Iran knows the weakness of the United States and Mr. Donald Trump. Because when the oil price rises to $100, $100+, Mr. Donald Trump will always have news saying, "Hormuz will open soon." So, if the enemy sees the weakness like this, Iran should probably counter-attack fiercely, meaning they should have bargaining power to the point where the United States has to agree. We've already seen it. "Oh, no sanctions, no more, release $300 billion, set it up, and many other things." Many people have observed that, "I don't know why Mr. Trump wants to go to war." Professor, in the end, before America's National Day, will Mr. Trump have to relax something again? Will he have to yield to Iran again? >> Exactly. I believe Trump will have to relax something, but he has to be tough-mouthed. He has to speak aggressively, speak fiercely, because >> That's politics. He is attacked a lot domestically. However, it's not that Iran can negotiate completely without limits. I must say that because Trump is also pressured by domestic politics from the other side. The opposition party >> So, they can't give too much. >> They can't give too much. So, they either don't give, or they give secretly. There are two ways. It cannot be revealed. So, there are ways, but >> They have to negotiate with dignity. You could say that. To show that "I'm serious, I'm not a pushover." >> Yes. >> But the most important variable that is most disruptive, both on the battlefield and in politics, is Israel. Israel has not stopped. It continues to attack Lebanon, and it's becoming more severe. Hundreds have died. Even today, they are still attacking. And at the same time, Israel is making political moves domestically to pressure Trump politically, using all the lobbyists to pressure him and get senators and representatives to pressure Trump. But this power is not as strong as before. Because Americans are starting to see that, "Well, the United States is going to help Israel fully, without getting anything in return." Even as Mulvaney said, "Why are we fighting? We're fighting because Israel invited us, right? They told us to fight and said we would win in just a few days. Finally, it's been over 100 days, 110 days, and it's still not over." By DNA, no matter what he says, you have to look at his DNA. He doesn't want to get into a protracted war. And he has criticized others a lot. Biden, who got bogged down in Afghanistan, is an example. So, on these points, I think Trump will have to give Iran something reasonably, but whether it's public or secret is another matter. >> Oh, Professor, can you guess what Iran wants? Because $300,000 is given for country reconstruction. Reduce sanctions, return some money, tens of billions of dollars. It's given, and they can trade without sanctions. And what has been said are just words, no actions yet. >> There is no promise of actual giving. >> No, yes, they say they will give, but they haven't given yet. So, the $300,000 is not US money. It depends on the Arab countries when they will give it. And they will also look for signals from Trump. At the same time, when will sanctions be announced? And next, when will the frozen money be released? Trump clearly stated it depends on your behavior. If you behave like a good child and are easy to negotiate with, then okay. And here, I want to talk about negotiations, the core of which is nuclear, right? >> The United States insists that Iran must not have nuclear weapons. The question is, if they only negotiate nuclear issues, I say Iran should agree easily. Because Iran has no intention of having nuclear weapons anyway. But what about the conditions? It has to be negotiated. For example, will they give away the enriched uranium for free? They definitely won't. As for how to manage it, that's another matter to discuss. >> But another problem is that Israel will interfere in the negotiations. >> Limiting Iran's missile range, limiting the number, and also preventing Iran from supporting armed groups in the Middle East, including Hezbollah. I believe Iran will not discuss this. Because Iran says, "We will talk about nuclear issues, nuclear issues. Don't bring other things in." Now, going back to the agreement, going in circles, I can't escape the JCPOA agreement, which Trump withdrew from. It's no different, even though this time they say it has to be approved by the Security Council. Last time, it wasn't even in the Security Council, but the Big 5 nations, the great powers in the Security Council, all participated and approved it, plus Germany. And this time, what to do? As you asked, why did they attack? Why did they withdraw from JCPOA? When everything was going according to the process. If you followed the process, and if Iran was not honest, you would send people to inspect or pressure the IAEA to inspect more intensely. If they don't allow it, then sanctions, and it's over, right? But it's not over because >> Uh, Trump believed Israel, so he withdrew, and the confrontation happened until today. >> Uh-huh. Professor, Israel is actually outside the negotiation table, but it turns out they are the variable that makes the deal not move forward. >> Right? Yes. They denied it from the beginning, saying they were not involved. They wanted to be involved, but if they were involved, the US knows they are not coming to end it, but to disrupt it, right? If there are negotiations, it won't end easily like this. >> Yes. >> So, when they are not allowed, they throw tantrums. "I'll attack Lebanon because I'm not in the agreement." But Iran says, "The agreement with the US is that >> the ceasefire must be on all battlefields, right?" >> Yes. >> And Van also makes excuses. >> He also says, "Well, there's no agreement that Israel has to withdraw from the south." Here, if Israel truly stops firing, Iran would probably accept it. >> But what Israel will do is >> Suppose they stop firing, they will advance. They use the method of advancing. If they advance and occupy, and you don't shoot, but you invade with tanks, I have to attack, right? So, it causes problems again. This issue >> It won't end easily as long as Israel is the troublemaker. >> Yes. Professor, if Israel continues to attack Hezbollah continuously, does the United States have enough power to pressure >> its partner? Professor, do you think they have enough power? >> This is the important problem. >> Uh. >> Israel has many allies in US politics. So, the US doesn't dare to play hardball with Israel. Let me give an example. If they say, "Okay, if you don't listen to me, I will cut off all your aid." Would they dare to do it? The representatives in the US will come out to oppose it. >> Yes. Even Van came out to scold Israel, saying Trump is the only president in the world who sympathizes with Israel the most. >> And do you know that 2 out of 3 of the weapons that protect you come from the United States? A senator stood up and scolded Van, saying he was disgusting. He said, "Go be a senator for Israel then, and stay here." But this person is fighting for Israel. So, you can see that there are quite a few pro-Israel people in the US Congress. And they are ready to fight for Israel. Therefore, the US itself >> finds it difficult to pressure Israel. They will be pressured themselves. Trump himself will be pressured. >> There is another way the court might do it, which is: if you don't believe us, we won't protect you. We will just let you fight Iran. >> Uh. >> If this happens, Israel will eventually have to ask the US to stop. But can the US do it? If the US can do it, they can just stay put for a while. If they fight, Israel cannot afford the losses. So, they will have to ask the US to stop, like the 10-day war last year. >> Oh, Professor. The 60-day roadmap they announced, is it moving towards peace, or is it actually a deadline that forces both countries, Iran and the United States, to return to war again? What is it? Is it peace, or will it force them into war? >> It's a window that allows them to talk. Which is better than not talking. >> And it's not just 60 days. If they can't finish talking in 60 days, I think it won't end. They can agree to extend it. One question that still bothers me is whether Trump wants peace, or just a short period of peace. I mean, Trump might want a ceasefire now, during the National Day, and then until the midterm elections, and then start fighting again. I really don't know, because >> There are lobbyists running around behind Trump, constantly pressuring him. >> Uh-huh. Professor, while they are negotiating, we see Donald Trump tweeting all the time through Truth Social. I'm not sure if they are negotiating out of fear or trust. Because Iran also says, "Well, we'll close the Strait of Hormuz, we'll keep closing it." And Mr. Trump says, "If you don't talk, I'll attack again." >> Uh. >> And when will the talks end? >> It depends on who started it. Speaking impartially, Trump, in the middle of the talks, was about to start negotiating, and he threatened them, saying, "If you don't agree properly, you won't have a country to return to." So, they got angry and protested. If they hadn't brought the Prime Minister themselves, right? And the Prime Minister of Qatar also went. Everyone went to console and ask them to continue talking. So, the situation passed. And Van probably told Trump, "Hey, don't say anything right now." So, he stayed quiet. There was no strong response on X. So, it's a war of words. But during such a time, when the atmosphere is good, Trump shouldn't say anything. Because whenever Trump speaks, it causes problems. Unless Trump has a hidden agenda to make oil prices fluctuate, I don't know. >> Uh-huh. But it's very difficult to find a conclusion, Professor. While they are negotiating for peace, it seems that Iran has already realized that the Strait of Hormuz is Mr. Trump's trump card. >> Right? And Mr. Trump is pressured by domestic politics. His people, as the Professor said, are unhappy with rising oil prices. So, how much will Mr. Trump yield? And how much does Iran want? Because we already know the weakness. It's hard to find a conclusion, Professor. >> It's like this: if it were just the United States talking to Iran, I think the matter would have been resolved long ago. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to limit the passage. Okay, they have to be cleared for safety, so that ships can run more. The next point is the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, 1,000 ships. It will take time to transport them out. It's not easy to get in line and come out. The next point is the oil production facilities. They have been damaged to a considerable extent. It will take time to repair. Some places might take a week or two, some might take 2-3 months, or even almost 6 months. So, it will come out gradually. Oil will not flow out abundantly and fill the gap of shortage. So, the oil price is unlikely to drop drastically, and there will still be a shortage. And there is a chance that both Iran and Russia will sell oil well in the global market, because the oil from the Middle East will be less. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this is almost the end of the second quarter. Professor, April, May, June. If it's June 30th, it's the end of the second quarter. So, it has been prolonged for 4 months, Professor. >> Yes. >> If it continues until the end of June and into July, many people say they can't take it anymore. Many economists say it's unlikely to be sustainable. Professor, but from a geopolitical perspective, do you think it has a chance to extend into early July? >> It's hard to say. To be honest, the economic pressure is severe worldwide. Everyone is suffering, of course. But the point is negotiations. As I said at the beginning, if only the United States and Iran were talking, I >> think it would end easily. Because there are no major conflicts. Even if the United States were to be a friend of Iran in the future, right? There are no direct conflicts, except for international political games. But what prevents this and causes the disruption is Israel. Israel wants to use the United States to destroy Iran, because Iran is a thorn in Israel's side in the region, especially the Greater Israel plan, which Israel has certainly planned. If Iran didn't obstruct it, I believe Israel might succeed sooner or later. >> Uh-huh. Professor, if, as Mr. Trump once said, the Strait of Hormuz is opened and Iran will not charge a fee for 60 days, does that mean that after 60 days, if it's opened, they will start charging again? So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz will have a fee for passage, right, Professor? >> Correct. That's why people criticize. At first, they opened it freely. Trump allowed Iran to seize this, and then seize it as a bargaining chip. It will become a source of income. But you have to understand, if we study maritime law, you cannot charge for passage, but you can charge for services. >> Service fees, such as piloting, security, etc. Iran has started to talk in this vein, in cooperation with Oman. So, >> They can charge, but it must be reasonable. Not $20 million or anything like that. It won't be that much. >> Uh-huh. So, from now on, the Strait of Hormuz, or other straits they talk about, might not be just transportation routes anymore, Professor. Now, they are powerful weapons of each country in terms of geopolitics. >> Oh, you mentioned this clearly. In terms of geopolitics, >> Uh. >> Spykman said that if we control the sea, we control the world. >> Uh. >> So, these important straits, England controlled them all. Then America took control, including the Strait of Malacca, Gibraltar. There are two straits they cannot control: Hormuz and another one, Bab el-Mandeb. Now, they have become important points for bargaining in terms of geopolitics, which Iran uses, including cooperation with the Houthis, which might expand if they are pressured further, which is the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. >> Uh-huh. Oh, this means there is a risk in the shipping channels in the group of Iran's allies, both in the Red Sea, right, Professor? Bab el-Mandeb is the Red Sea. >> And the Strait of Hormuz, two channels. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> This is why the United States has to yield. This is an important part. They have to yield. And even in terms of strategy and tactics, a strait like Hormuz is an example. The location is conducive to control by Iran. Because there are many islands, rocks, ravines, even high mountains behind it, which are suitable for hiding missiles or >> as cover. Or the island of Qes >> has a population of hundreds of thousands, almost 200,000, living underground. It has resources, water, and enough supplies to sustain them. And there are caves to store weapons. >> Uh, meaning, if nuclear weapons are not used, and only conventional weapons are used, it would be difficult to destroy. Even if they could capture it, they couldn't hold it. Because they would be constantly attacked there, causing more damage. The United States has calculated that it's not worth it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh. So, the model of Hormuz, if it happens, can they collect protection fees like this? >> They can't collect protection fees by law. >> But service fees. >> Service fees. >> Such as piloting. Like when we enter the port of Singapore, to dock at any pier, Singapore has piloting fees, right? >> They can collect piloting fees. This is an example. >> Uh-huh. But they also provide security, right? Is that how it works? >> Yes, yes. >> So, the insurance premium will be reduced, right? Because someone is providing security. >> Because, because we know who is in control there. Which forces are in control. This means that if the Hormuz model is like this, it can be extended to the Red Sea as well, right, Professor? >> Yes, but it hasn't reached that stage yet. >> It's a card that Iran is still holding. They haven't used it yet. Because if the negotiation ends here, it ends. They don't want to expand it. >> Uh. >> But if they are pressured too much, >> Yes. >> They might have to expand it by cooperating with the Houthis to close the strait. And that would be even more severe. >> Oh, but no one has ever done this before, Professor. Once a model is established, with an example, people might think, "Well, in this case, we can also provide convenience." Piloting for those who have passed. You don't depend on where you are. >> It depends on the area, on the geopolitics. Iran has learned from the great powers. >> Because the great powers controlled Gibraltar, controlled the Strait of Malacca for a while, and also controlled the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal. These are all strategic points. They have always used them. So, Iran has learned. Iran is not stupid. >> Uh-huh. Oh, so will America agree? Will China agree, Professor? Because China trades a lot. In terms of global trade volume, America has to import, has to pass through this strait. >> China, China, in the short term, seems to be at a disadvantage. Because the strait is closed, but Chinese ships can pass in and out. No one blocks them. America doesn't block them. Iran doesn't block them. China loses nothing. At the same time, the United States is stuck here. China likes this because China can pressure Taiwan more. If the US is pouring its forces here, then the forces there are fewer, right? Russia also likes the US to be stuck here. Because of the oil shortage, Russia can sell oil well. >> And it also reduces the pressure in the Ukraine war. Notice, when Trump thought he could close the deal with Iran, Trump immediately went to ask about the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He asked, "How is it progressing?" So, at first, they had no strength, they were stuck here. >> As soon as they thought they were free, they immediately went to pressure them. But now, it's uncertain if it can be resolved, because Israel is the troublemaker. Trump has also scolded Netanyahu severely, criticized him fiercely in the past. >> Oh, Professor, if, as you said, it really happens, since Iran and China are allies, this return to collecting fees, like convenience fees, will lead to a new world order, and the alignment of blocs will become clearer, right, Professor? If someone is an ally of Iran, they might get special consideration. >> Probably not. If they collect, they will collect at a standard rate, but not as much as before. That would be called ransom. It's like a buffer. You have to pay $20 million, or something like that. >> But they will collect reasonably. This, in part, might make countries that oppose oil willing to pay the price to sell oil, because oil prices are much higher. So, it's possible. >> Uh-huh. Actually, during the time when they said they were entering negotiations, Professor, and the Strait of Hormuz was opened, the gold price rose by almost 3%, maybe 2.6%, 6%? But after that, oh, it fell again. >> Uh, yes, it fell again. As for the stock market, it's been closing and opening. Some markets are closed, some are open. But one concern that many people are worried about is that if it continues to close like this, oil prices will remain high. This might cause the Fed to raise interest rates. So, it means that now we will see a prolonged situation, right? The stock market that rose earlier was probably just a temporary rise. >> Yes. >> According to the news. >> Yes, correct. It's like this: regarding oil alone, the price is volatile, it goes up and down, adjusts back and forth. >> But >> The issue of oil is not going to end easily. It will take time. >> The first point is that the oil reserves stored in various countries are almost depleted, right? So, the demand for oil is still high. The shadow fleet, whether it's from Russia or Iran, is selling very well. Many people want it because the oil leaving Hormuz is not enough. Okay, this is the first point. The second point, even if the Strait of Hormuz is opened today, >> Uh, it has to be cleared up. For example, mines have to be cleared. Because Iran has laid mines in the Strait of