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Dubai Real Estate Shock: Home Sales 'Fall Off a Cliff' After US-Iran War | Spotlight

Firstpost24:51

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Hello and welcome to First Post Spotlight, where we bring you the stories that matter from across the world, shining a light on the biggest issues and controversies. I'm Daniela Laurel. We are live from the First Post Studios, but first, a look at today's headlines.

Ukrainian drones hit several locations across Russia's Moscow region in Kyiv's biggest air attack on the city [music] in two years, setting a major oil refinery on fire and forcing evacuations at the country's largest airport. NATO agrees to modernize its nuclear capabilities and strengthen its planning capacity as the US-led alliance works to increase [music] deterrence capabilities, citing threats from Russia. Switzerland has confirmed that the United States and Iran will begin talks on Friday on implementing their peace agreement aimed at ending [music] the West Asia war. The two sides signed the understanding yesterday, setting in motion a process that could pave the way for a long-term [music] settlement. The Israeli foreign minister says he is severing all contact with the European Union's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, over reported remarks [music] in which she allegedly compared Israel to the apartheid regime that once ruled South Africa. And the UAE announces a social media ban for children under the age of 15, joining a growing group of countries, including Australia, Britain, and Canada [music], to take similar measures.

For our first story, let's turn to India's financial capital of Mumbai, which is reeling under a severe water crisis. The city is left with only about 40 days of drinking water storage. Mumbai's reservoirs remain under pressure as the city's civic body, the BMC, has imposed fresh restrictions on water use, saying the move is necessary to preserve drinking water supplies. The BMC has imposed a 20% cut in water supply to industrial, commercial, and sports establishments after shock in the reservoirs supplying water to Mumbai dropped drastically. Now, under the new rules, water connections to construction sites and swimming pools will be disconnected. Public toilets and urinals have also been asked to source water through tankers and bore wells to conserve drinking water. The civic body has also prohibited the use of potable water for washing vehicles, watering gardens, and cleaning roads. These measures were announced despite the BMC's earlier 10% water cut, as the situation continued to worsen.

But, how severe is the crisis in Mumbai? Let's take a closer look. Mumbai depends on a network of seven lakes for its drinking water supply. Now, to meet the daily needs of more than 20 million residents. As of June 17th, these reservoirs collectively held nearly 150 billion liters of water. That's about 10% of its capacity. Mumbai needs over 4,500 million liters of water every day, and this year, water levels have remained lower than expected so far.

But, why is Mumbai facing such an intense water supply shortage? The reason is a weakened monsoon. Mumbai's reservoirs, which are its water lifelines, are replenished during the monsoon months. However, with rains arriving later than expected and inflows remaining below normal, water levels have fallen sharply ahead of the peak monsoon period.

And what is the impact so far? While the BMC's measures are largely aimed at commercial consumers rather than households, reports suggest that officials are contemplating stricter measures if reservoir levels continue to decline further. In fact, residents may already be feeling the pinch in their pockets, as prices of water tankers have reportedly surged significantly in parts of the city. The crisis is not just limited to Mumbai. Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has reportedly directed officials to plan water usage carefully to ensure drinking supplies remain available across the state through next year. In Navi Mumbai, officials have already launched a plan to revive traditional open wells to reduce dependence on treated drinking water and strengthen preparedness in case rainfall remains below normal.

But is there any respite in sight? According to the India Meteorological Department, or the IMD, the advancement of the southwest monsoon over Maharashtra has remained stalled over the past few days. This is due to the absence of favorable large-scale meteorological conditions. The situation is likely to improve later this month.

"Monsoon's further advancement into the remaining parts of Maharashtra has remained stalled during the past few days. Current numerical weather guidance suggests an increase in rainfall activity over Konkan belt around 24th to 25th June 2026. The synoptic conditions are being continuously monitored."

So, with Mumbai staring at shrinking water reserves and a delayed monsoon failing to provide immediate relief, authorities remain on high alert. For now, conservation and restrictions appear to be the only way forward, as the city waits for the skies to open up and ease the pressure on its water supply system.

Now, to discuss more on this, we have with us Anand Sharma, former additional director general at the IMD, joining us on the show live from New Delhi. Welcome. Can we just quickly answer the question, was this issue in Mumbai in any way anticipated, predicted, or prepared for?

"Uh, as you have mentioned that monsoon is delayed. Uh, it's stalled. Normal onset of monsoon over Mumbai is around the 10th of June."

"Mhm."

"This time, it's going to be delayed by at least two weeks. That means, uh, IMD is expecting onset of monsoon over Mumbai around the 25th. Till that time, naturally, there will be water crisis."

"Mhm."

"And there are a number of factors which are responsible for delay in the monsoon. It's mainly because of the unfavorable synoptic conditions."

"Mhm."

"And number one synoptic condition is no low-pressure area. Generally, low-pressure areas, uh, I mean, you know, they are the ones where you have winds moving in anticlockwise direction in the northern hemisphere, and they form either in the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea or both. And then they move inland, bringing the moisture to the inland. And that, you know, brings or pulls the moisture. And then the next wave of or pulse of monsoon enters"

"Mhm."

"into the areas. But then, this time, there is no, right now, there is no low pressure either in the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea. Secondly, the low-level jet, which we know as Somali jet, it, which brings cross-equatorial flow. That means it brings moisture from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere."

"Mhm."

"And its branch over the Arabian Sea brings moisture to the western coast, and because of orography, the cloud formation and heavy precipitation occurs. So, that is also in a very weak condition. Thirdly, Madden-Julian oscillation, which again is a belt of cloud, rain, and pressure moving from the west Indian Ocean towards the east Pacific, towards the Pacific, and that's also in, I mean, in a suppressed condition. Normal condition, there is a lot of convection, updrafting of moisture, cloud formation, and rain. But right now, there is very weak convection. Fourthly, the westerly systems are quite active,"

"Mhm."

"and normally we what we see is the westerly jet is moves north of Himalayas as monsoon onset takes place. But this time, it is found in much of towards southern position, and because of that also, you know, moisture is being evaporated, and we don't have. Then, in addition to that, we also have El Niño."

"Sorry to interrupt, but just very, very, just very quickly, Anand, can you say that this is going to be a regularly recurring issue, especially with climate change happening? How can Mumbai be better prepared?"

"No, you see, this kind of variability we have seen in the past also. So, it's not like climate change is. You see, we already have huge climate variability due to natural reasons. And climate change is an added pressure, so it might delay or impact further monsoon, but already our monsoon variability is too much. But only problem here is that we don't have long-term vision."

"Right."

"There is no drought or drought-proofing, you know?"

"Mhm."

"We should harvest water when rain is available. Our water bodies have all been encroached. The major lakes, their areas have shrunk. Like Powai Lake is a major lake. 40% it has shrunk by 40%. Many lakes have disappeared because of construction and other activities."

"Mhm."

"So, you know, there is no long-term planning and vision. Unless we have to conserve and restore our water bodies, which also recharges our groundwater. That's not happening. Then our land use is totally changing. There is hardly any water is percolating down. Thirdly, a lot of water is underground water is drawn. And it's not getting recharged. Tanker mafia is very powerful. And already we have energy crisis, then we will be having now water crisis, fertilizer crisis, and that also add to further food crisis. So, the problems is going to be severe. Problem is that we, we do, you know, impact. Some impact is there, then some kind of knee-jerk reaction. But we should do long-term planning. We should have a vision. That means we should tap alternate sources of water. Maybe having another dam somewhere, or go for water desalination, go for water harvesting. We should make compulsory. All these features, unless until we do that, the problem is going to be occur year after year."

"Absolutely. Thank you so much, Anant Sharma, for all your insights and for your time with us this evening."

"Thank you."

Meanwhile, Malaysia is signaling a sharper shift in its currency strategy. It is exploring a move away from the US dollar in bilateral trade with Russia, and instead pushing towards settling transactions in local currencies, the ringgit and the ruble. The discussion comes on the sidelines of a meeting between Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazan. The two leaders focused on strengthening trade and investment ties, and one key theme stood out: reducing reliance on the US dollar in their bilateral trade.

"Last year, trade between our countries grew by 12%. This is a good result. We also attach great importance to joint work in education, science, and technology, as well as the development of tourism and humanitarian ties."

Talks included the idea of direct settlements between the Malaysian ringgit and the Russian ruble, part of broader discussions held during the ASEAN Russia commemorative summit on June 17th and 18th. The agenda went beyond currency. Energy cooperation was a major focus. Russia is expected to ensure stable long-term oil supplies to Malaysia.

"As you know, um, energy, you have given fantastic support. Thank you very much. And Petronas was here with your counterpart, some of the companies here. We will certainly, we certainly got great admiration for your determination to enhance that collaboration and support during these initial energy crisis and now."

Anwar and Putin are no strangers to the diplomatic stage. They have met multiple times before. Each meeting has quietly added layers to their growing partnership. However, no final agreement on currency systems was signed. Officials say the talks remained a framework and not a blueprint. Trade between Malaysia and Russia remains relatively small in global terms. It has ranged between two and a half and four billion US dollars annually in recent years. In 2024, it stood at roughly 3.2 billion dollars. Over five years, that adds up to about 12 to 18 billion dollars in total trade flow. Significant, but still limited in scale.

Malaysia's de-dollarization strategy is not limited to Russia. It is part of a wider economic recalibration. Kuala Lumpur has also explored similar local currency trade discussions with India, a signal of a broader regional shift, not a single country move. But this is not a full exit from the dollar. At present, countries are not completely abandoning the US dollar. They are reducing dependence where possible by building local currency trade channels and alternative payment systems across regions. The pattern is repeating. BRICS economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are pushing local currency settlements. The ruble, the yuan, and the rupee are increasingly appearing in trade flows. But commodities such as oil still remain largely dollar-linked. In ASEAN, countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore are turning to local currency swaps. India and the UAE are also experimenting with rupee and dirham-based trade, especially in energy and non-oil sectors. But global oil pricing still anchors much of the system in US dollars. Despite all this movement, the dollar still dominates. Roughly 80 to 90% of global foreign exchange transactions remain dollar-linked, that's based on SWIFT estimates. Central banks continue to hold large dollar reserves, and global commodities are still priced in USD. So, what is really changing? Amid declining trust in the US economy, countries are looking out for alternatives, and we will keep you updated if other countries choose the path of de-dollarization.

Dubai's booming property market is showing signs of slowing down. After years of strong sales and record-breaking demand, experts now say the US-Iran war's impact is starting to show significant impact on investor sentiment. According to experts, property sales in Dubai, which was once one of the world's most expensive, have, quote unquote, fallen off a cliff. The dip is being linked to rising uncertainty, security concerns, and a more cautious approach from international buyers. Even as the war has effectively come to an end with a peace deal now signed, sales in the United Arab Emirates, or the UAE, continue to dwindle. According to a Dubai-based consultancy, sales in the city dropped 19% in May compared with the previous month, accelerating from a 4% drop in April. Property officials said some homes are getting sold on the market at a discount of about 20 to 25% of their original price.

"Western European buyers are now more reluctant to buy properties here. I think they want to wait out maybe a year, even two years. It depends on how things play out."

But it didn't always look like this. According to international estate agent Knight Frank, in the 10 million US dollar plus bracket, there were 9,050 sales in Dubai. That's compared to 6,577 in New York and 3,089 in London. Dubai was once a safe haven market for global investors, attracting buyers from Europe, Asia, and Russia for its luxury properties and tax incentives. It's now seeing transactions that have reduced massively since last year. But now the market is correcting itself, with the city witnessing its first dip in real estate prices after the coronavirus pandemic in March that year. And the reason for it is simple: Dubai and the UAE as a whole were held in the crossfire between the US and Iran. Several high-profile buildings, such as the Burj Al Arab, the Palm Jumeirah, and even the city's airport, were targeted in Iranian strikes. Now, for a city that thrives on tourism, there was a big hit to its reputation as a safe and insulated tourist spot. Even for those residing in the city, this came as a shock. Dubai has a population of about 4.4 million people, and reports claim that the first eight days of the war triggered a temporary exodus of about 40,000 people.

Fluctuations in Dubai's property prices also massively impact Indians. Over 1.6 million Indians reside in Dubai, accounting for roughly a third of the city's entire population. Last year, Indians were also the largest group of foreign home buyers in Dubai, purchasing houses worth an estimated $10 billion, that's according to reports.

To revive its image and boost confidence in the city's stability, Dubai has introduced a slew of measures. The city has introduced key changes to its visa policy in a move aimed to protect its real estate business from global uncertainties. The Emirates has eased rules linked to its property-based residency visa. Authorities in Dubai removed the minimum property value requirement for obtaining a 2-year residency visa for individual property owners. And that's not all. The government has been providing stimulus packages to all sectors affected by the war. Further, the government has also altered the coveted Golden Visa, that's a 10-year self-sponsored residency program, from a purely investment-based model to a global talent-first framework. Authorities have taken all of these measures to retain Dubai's global status. Experts believe that the coming months will be crucial for Dubai's property sector, with market recovery depending largely on global stability and the return of foreign investor confidence, while policy changes may offer short-term support, sustained growth may require a clear improvement in geopolitical conditions and the overall market sentiment.

And now, our final story. What was meant to be a dream holiday in one of the world's most iconic cities ended in unimaginable heartbreak for an Indian family. 18-year-old Rohanch Mahajan, who was visiting New York from India, lost his life after a horse-drawn carriage ride through Central Park turned into a terrifying accident. Instead of returning home with holiday photographs and cherished memories, his family is now mourning a devastating loss.

According to the New York Police Department, the incident occurred near Cherry Hill in Central Park. Romanch was taking a ride in a horse-drawn carriage with three other passengers. That is when the horse suddenly became frightened, broke into an uncontrollable run, and raced through the park. According to reports, the carriage sped along West Drive before crashing into another horse-drawn carriage. This was near the famous Tavern on the Green restaurant. The impact caused the carriage to overturn, throwing passengers onto the roadway. The 18-year-old suffered severe head injuries after being ejected from the moving carriage. He was rushed to hospital in critical condition but later succumbed to his injuries. The tragedy became even more heartbreaking as reports suggested the victim's parents were also in Central Park and witnessed the horrific accident unfold. Videos circulating on social media captured those terrifying moments before the crash.

As per reports, the Transport Workers Union, which represents carriage drivers, stated that the driver had reportedly stepped away from the carriage to take a photograph of the passengers, an action that violates industry safety rules. Union officials have stressed that a full investigation is needed to determine exactly what caused the horse to bolt and whether safety procedures were ignored.

"This is unacceptable. A driver is not supposed to leave the carriage to take photos, ever. We are devastated that a passenger died after injuries suffered today in the accident in Central Park. And our thoughts and prayers are with the victim's family. It's our understanding that the carriage owner has suspended the driver indefinitely, and the horse will be retired from the business."

The 7-year-old horse named Samson had reportedly been working in Central Park for only six weeks. The animal was not injured in the incident. The accident has once again reignited the long-running debate over New York City's historic horse-drawn carriage industry, which has operated for more than 150 years. Supporters argue that the carriage rides are a cherished tourist attraction and provide livelihoods for hundreds of workers. Critics, however, say horses should not be navigating one of the busiest urban parks in the United States. Animal welfare groups and the Central Park Conservancy, that's a private non-profit organization that manages, restores, and maintains New York City's Central Park, have renewed calls for the industry to be banned.

"This is the tragedy we feared when we first called last year for horse carriages to be banned from Central Park due to the risks they pose to public safety and public health. A young man came to enjoy our park and lost his life. That is not an acceptable cost of an antiquated industry operating in the middle of one of the most heavily used public spaces in America. We renew our call for New York City to pass Rider's Law, which would ban horse carriages and provide transitional job placement services for drivers."

The Conservancy, which had already backed a ban on horse-drawn carriages last year, described Romanchuk's death as unacceptable. They reportedly stated that no visitor should lose their life while simply trying to enjoy one of New York's most famous landmarks.

Now, as investigations work to establish exactly what happened, one question now hangs over Central Park's century-old tradition: Can these iconic carriage rides still be considered a harmless tourist experience, or has another tragic accident made the case for change impossible to ignore?

That's all we have on the show for today. This is Daniella Laurel. [music] We will see you again tomorrow, same time. Thanks for watching.

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