Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Rtech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you your daily SPY report for Wednesday, March 12th, 2025. Let's take a look at the charts. I'll start with the weekly chart. This says a lot, actually, uh, in terms of um, the next several weeks, the next uh, 3 to 5 months. 5457 to—we've not yet tested it, but it is considered a 1 to 3-week target depending on volatility below 5783. And uh, so 5457 to—we could test it this week. Uh, it is long-term support; that is our 2-year trend support coming off the October 22nd low. Uh, 2-year, almost. Uh, 5457 to—able to contain selling not only uh, into April, but uh, into the third quarter. And from there, from 5457 to, we can obviously retrace back to 57838. 57838 uh, that is more of a near-term sell signal now. Um, in other sorts of context, you could consider that long-term. I mean, obviously, if we were to close this week below 5457 to, then we're expecting later in the year the 43822 to 45512 structures. That could be within 3 to 5 months; it could take, take well into the fourth quarter. And then we would look back on, boy, that sell signal below 5783 was the early lead, but not comfortable with that uh, that uh, um, outlook unless we also then close below 54572. So, between the two, 54572 is more significant. And if we can close back above 57838 over the next uh, 2 to 3 weeks, let's say, then we're back to anticipating within several months uh, 640205. That is all the big picture, and that 64205 is a 5-year channel structure. So, a 54572, our base of support. I'm going to jump to the daily chart right now and show other formations. We slipped below the 55712 structure on um, Tuesday. Uh, we even close—well, we closed pretty much right at it. I forget the exact number; it was 556 and change. Excuse me, 556 and change. So, 55712 is still a pivot point today. I still have it as a session containment level. If we open at or above 55712, 57.92 is attainable today. I don't know if we can expect it on the way up. 56486 can contain intraday buying; that would be just above yesterday's 5642 high. If we push through 56487, 5792 too likely. So, once again, back to the day trade scenario: opening at or above 55712 does allow 57.92 where uh, day traders can short the market. We can fall back from here possibly through the rest of the week. If we were to close today above 57.92, we should then tomorrow test that 57882, a channel bottom on the weekly chart—well, on the daily chart. Weekly chart 57838; a daily chart is 57882. So, once again, let me say that one more time: if we close above 57.92, 57882 likely tomorrow where we could top out through next week and from there fall back to 54572 within 1 to 3 weeks depending on volatility. Closing back above 57838 on the weekly chart, on the daily chart 57882. I think we have a good move low, and under that scenario, closing above 57882, I would expect 60490 within 1 to 2 weeks roughly. This channel top able to contain weekly, possibly monthly buying pressures, and it would be a settlement above $60490 that would then clarify uh, the low 640s as a likely 3 to 5-week objective, 64205. So, I hope that all made sense. Once again, downside 55712 is a meaningful intraday pivot, uh, and if we can open clearly above it, 56486 is likely, possibly 57.92 intraday. Inversely, breaking or opening below 55712 does allow 54572, 54572 being our target, being our 1 to 3-week objective below 57838. 54572, if tested today, can contain selling not only for the week, but as I said earlier, into the third quarter. From here, we can push onto new highs within several months. So, the day trade to the downside, breaking or opening below 55712, we have minor points all the way down, but you can see lower right, really there's nothing to really hang your hat on, so to speak, until we get down to 54572. And that channel bottom is an area I think for all shorts to cover their positions, unless you're sort of banking, if you will, or anticipating that the settlement, for instance, below 5783 was a long-term sell signal that could be uh, the ultimate um, scenario. I'm just not uh, uh, buying it, so to speak, unless we close below 54572. And then I think, yes, this is—we're in real trouble if we close below 54572. I think we enter a bear market, as I've been saying. That's not altogether uh, different than what we saw from uh, you know, early '22 to late '22. That same lower low, lower high dynamic can continue to play out into the 430s, 450s over the following, oh, I don't know, 5 to 8 months. So, there, there, there's that. Um, is there anything else to say beyond what I already have? I'm looking through the charts right now, and I don't think so. I think I've covered it all. I'm going to leave it at that for Wednesday's daily SPY report. I'll be back tomorrow, of course, with Thursday's. You have a great day.