Transcription
Okay. So, let us summarize what we've learned so far and discuss what is it that allows societies to rise and fall. So, we'll look at three phases: the rise, the decline, and the collapse. Okay?
So, when I mean decline, I don't mean like things are getting worse. I mean things aren't improving. Okay, so rise is when things get better. Decline is when things are stagnant or getting slightly worse. Collapse is when society is about to fall apart. Okay.
So if you look at these three particular phases of society, there are different characteristics. In the when society rises, it is first and foremost open. Open just means that you have opportunities for social mobility in the society. If you're a poor person, you can make money. You you can become wealthy. Your talent is appreciated. It's a meritocracy. It's innovative. If you criticize society, people are like, "Thank you for criticizing us because criticism makes us better people." Okay? There's open debate.
Now, what's really interesting is um most young societies are open societies. Okay? So for example in 1950s America was a democracy right? China was communist but this is really interesting 1950s they were both open societies. You could criticize leaders. In fact you were encouraged to criticize leaders. China was as democratic back then as the United States. Okay. So it's not about political systems. It's just about the uh what state you are in social development. So if you're young, you're going to be open. You're going to be democratic. You're going to be metocratic. You want to learn. So you will listen to criticism. Okay? That's the first great characteristic of a society on the rise. It's openness.
But when you reach a decline phase, guess what? Society becomes bureaucratic. Okay, bureaucratic. Why? Because if if we go back to this model, as a company loses more and more money, the managerial class is concerned with maintaining their jobs. So they become bureaucrats, okay? They have to prove their worth. So they create a lot of paperwork. They make everyone follow the rules. Society becomes more and more bureaucratic. Then in collapse phase Z becomes authoritarian. Okay. Before the client is following the rules. Now it's just rule by force.
I know there's but there's another way of saying this. In the rise phase what matters is the consent. Okay. So these three groups, the elite, the middle class, and the people, they're all working together to improve society. There's consent. But when you hit the decline phase, now it's there's deception. And then when you hit the collapse phase, it's coercion.
So let me give you an example. Let's just say uh we are in the rise phase, right? Well, we want to go to lunch. So, we discuss where we go to lunch. I want to go McDonald's, but you guys want to go to Pizza Hut or KFC. We have we have debate and then eventually we vote and whoever wants to go and like the majority wins. Okay, that's a consent phase.
When we hit the decline phase, deception. I'm the teacher. So, I say to you, "Hey guys, let's go to McDonald's because Wong Fay will be there or Jack Ma will be there or it's free hamburgers today." Okay, I'm lying to you to get what I want. And then in the cloud space is I say to you, I'm the teacher and I will beat you up if you don't if you don't listen to me. Okay.
So the rise phase, what matters first and foremost is unity of the people. We're all working together. There's empathy. There's concern for other people. I want to be your friend. We need we need to work together to make society better. Okay? But in the decline phase, it's really about stability. It's about making sure that society maintains a status quo. Okay. When we reach a collapse phase, it is survival. Screw you. I want to live and if I have to kill you, I'll kill you. All right.
So this is a map that shows us this what happens when something rises, declines and collapses. Now what's really interesting about this is the timing. Okay, so if you actually look at society's the timeline, it goes like this. Okay, there's a steep rise, the decline is slow and the collapse is sudden. So people think oh decline you know things get worse worse but you know we follow this trend we'll still be here but actually the collapse happens really fast.
Why? The reason why is this system cannot survive external shocks. External shocks is a perfect storm of crisis. So another way of saying this is maybe society prepares for okay if there's a plague we'll do this if there's a climate crisis we'll do this if there's a drought we'll do this if there's a war we'll do this okay what society is not prepared for is these things happening all at once the plague the drought war it's revolution they all happen at once it's a perfect storm and that's what leads to the clouds because society is not prepared for this. Okay?
And why is society not prepared for this? Because when you hit the authoritarian phase, you're not allowed to criticize the system anymore. The problem are those who speak out. The problem is those who point out the problems of society. In the rise phase, those who criticize society are the heroes. They are appreciated. They are rewarded in the class phase. Those who speak out are the enemies of society and therefore society cannot be prepared for any external threats which leads to its collapse any questions.
Okay. So this is the anical model that we're working with and again we're going to apply it to the present and then we're going to apply it to the past. Okay. So with this analyical model what we can do is make certain predictions about the future. So I will make these predictions and I expect these things happen in the next five to 10 years. up to 10 years or 10 to 20 years. Okay, I'm not like I don't know the time frame. Okay, I expect these things to happen.
Okay, the first thing that's going to happen in the western world is decline of democracy and freedom. So remember in the rise phase society is democratic and open and meritocratic but as you move on it becomes more bureaucratic and ultimately authoritarian. Okay. So we will see the United States Europe become much more authoritarian. You will see a collapse of democracy and freedom in these nations. and and already we're seeing this happen in the United States where Trump is using more and more military to resolve issues, right? So that's the first prediction and this is going to happen throughout the western world.
Second thing is economic collapse. So as there is le as people have less and less right to speak up, they feel less invested in the system. They're less willing to work. Therefore, you have economic collapse. People don't believe in the system anymore. Okay? The system is in crisis. This will lead to immigration. The government is like, you know what? If if the people don't want to work, screw them. Let's bring in immigrants to do the work. Okay, this this is let's replace our population. But the people are not going to sit back and take it, right? This leads to civil war. People are not killing each other on the streets. And the government is like, you know what? If we kept if we continue to let them fight, eventually they're going to come after us. So what we'll do is send them off to like these stupid pointless wars overseas. Okay. So now you have stupid wars, stupid foreign wars. And this these are my five predictions for the world for the next 5, 10, 20 years. Okay. Europe and America will see less freedom and democracy. the economic collapse, increase immigration, civil conflict, and then ultimately stupid foreign wars. And I'm not saying this happens in a sequence. I'm saying you'll see all five things, okay? But they may happen in different order. Any questions? Was this clear to you guys? Yeah. Thank you.
Is there any chance that um the government tries to use a war to um distract the people? Like they they're trying to hide all of the collapse of the society and their country. Yeah. Yeah. That's a great question and the answer is that's what wars are for. It's to distract the people, right? Because if you don't distract the people, they'll come and revolt against you. So you either send them to a war or you could have a French revolution on your hands, right? That's your option. War or revolution. I think war is the better option. That's why we're heading into a world at war. Not revolution. Okay. No, no. I'm I'm saying like if you don't send the people to war, they will revolt against you. So you send off send off to war to distract them, to get rid of them. But what is the right? Okay, there's no right and wrong here. Okay, guys. Okay. All right. All right. Okay. I'm I I apologize. Okay. But one thing that you will learn in my class is there's no right and wrong. There's no logic. Okay. It's not like it is immoral to send people to war. I know that. Thank you very much. Okay. But I'm trying to explain to you how power works. That's a theme of this course. I'm trying to explain to you how people in power think and behave. All right. And again, I keep on saying this. I don't know if I'm right. But what I'm doing is I'm presenting a theory, a model that we can use to make predictions. And if these predictions work out, if it actually happens, then our model, there's some accuracy to our model. Okay, we'll have to refine our model, but there's some accuracy to it. But hey, hey, if tomorrow Trump, Putin, she all get together and says, "Let's be best friends, then I'm wrong." Right? Okay. So, so that's what we're trying to do in this class. We're not trying to argue what is right, what is wrong, what is just, because quite honestly, it doesn't matter, right? Morality doesn't matter here. It's about power. We're trying to understand how the world works. And when we do and if we do that, then maybe we can work together and build a more just world. But first, we need to figure out how the world really, really works. Okay, any more questions?