Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will talk about BTC which broke its support level, which came back to seek $100,000, Ether also which came back to seek $3,000. We will see if we are putting in a bottom or on the contrary, are we having a trend continuation pattern with a drop that is coming. We will talk about certain altcoins, notably the altcoins that were asked to be analyzed, and we will do a global review as usual. We will also talk about order flow with something interesting happening right now. Uh before I start, I remind you that you have €200 offered, you have 4 days left to take advantage of the offer. And for perhaps some people who are hesitating, who say "Yes, but I don't see myself buying a program, I don't see myself paying like that for coaching, for support, it's this kind of program that will allow you to avoid this kind of drop, that will allow you to exit at the right time, to have better money management, to trade effectively in this kind of phase with high volatility and see it as an investment. Either you learn from your mistakes at the expense of your capital because you will lose money and that's how you will learn like many have done here. Or you tell yourself OK, well I learn from the mistakes of others because it is thanks to my mistakes that I can offer a program like this because I learned, I messed things up, I fell, and so on and so forth, which allows me today to offer this kind of program which will become much more than a program. It will become a mentorship from January 1st. So there you go, that's how it should be, and above all, it's not a purchase, it's an investment, okay, which will be largely profitable when you have effective trading strategies that will simply allow you to generate a constant income. So there you go, if you want to avoid the kind of drop you may have experienced recently, if you want to be autonomous here and above all not suffer but rather take advantage of this kind of phase with high volatility, then I invite you to join the "Become a Trader" program. You have €200 offered, it's the last time you can take advantage of the program price at such a low rate, and you have until Sunday evening to take advantage of the offer. And for those who have joined recently, don't hesitate to contact me by private message so I can give you access to the private group.
So, I'll start here with the uh BTC. We broke this level, a real break. We had good acceleration at the end of the day, 6-7 PM, 8 PM. There, we went to seek extremely low levels, $98,000, and we have a small rebound that is underway. There, these are levels we identified together. It's a very interesting level that absolutely must hold. Okay. For me, if we start in weekly, really on BTC, to lose this level, we would have the validation of a larger market top structure. Already, we are clearly on an inversion of our medium-term dynamic. The long-term inversion occurs if we lose $90,000. Why? Because it would be the first time we break a previous low. We have always made higher lows. We have always maintained these lows at this level. At this level. And if we start to go below this level, well, we would lose a major low, and we could assume that we are reversing our long-term bearish dynamic. That's how I would see it. So that's why we have a buying reaction here. We see it clearly. We are coming back to seek this level, we are reacting quite well. Have we put in a bottom? It's much too early to define it. For the moment, if I put moving averages, we still have downward-oriented moving averages. We are in the 15-minute tunnel. It's the first time we're retesting it in a long time. OK, it's the 3-minute tunnel that served as resistance. Now, we're retesting the 15-minute tunnel. We'll have to see how the market reacts because currently, we are at resistance. We are in a good zone to look for shorts, provided, of course, that there is a selling reaction. Hey, we don't position ourselves just anywhere. And we see that we are below the moving averages, below the 1-hour tunnel, below the 4-hour tunnel, still downward-oriented moving averages. If I put pivot points here, we have a good confluence here, $105,700 weekly pivot point with this support zone that previously served as support and now serves as resistance, we have the 1-hour tunnel that will align. So if we have a pullback globally around $106,000, we'll really have to watch how the market reacts. We will have more chance of rejection, in any case. Why? Because a support level becomes a resistance level for the simple reason that in this zone, buyers have shown themselves. In this zone as well, this zone too, and this zone too. This means that we have quite a few positions that are open. The fact of coming back to seek these positions, there is a part of these buyers who closed their positions, who got stopped out, others liquidated, but others who still have open positions. When these buyers experience a -5% -6% perhaps, which is an even bigger drop with the use of leverage, when we come back to seek their entry price, it's an opportunity for them to exit at break-even. Someone who exits, who closes their position, even if they exit at a loss, but a buyer who exits their position is a future seller. They are simply a seller because when you buy here and when you buy here, when you exit your positions, whether it's via a TP, whether it's via a stop loss, whether it's via liquidation or manual closure because we come back to seek your entry price, you are selling. So you create selling pressure at this level. That's why I will really watch this resistance level, and as long as we don't re-enter it, I assume that we are in a bearish trend, and I will be very vigilant. And anyway, it's always support levels, resistance levels. When we go below, they become resistance levels. When we go back above, they are support levels, and we saw it together, $98,000 was a good zone to position ourselves. I published it yesterday on Discord, I said it, it was around 11 PM from memory, it was around this level where I simply said we are potentially at a bottom where we can position ourselves for a rebound. OK, I'm not talking about going long to make a new ATH, to seek $150,000, but someone who does swing trading, it's a bit against the trend, but someone who wants to position themselves at a bottom, they can have a setup here that can be executed where they enter because they have a small buying reaction, a stop loss below the low because we have another buying reaction, and go seek, well, for a trade, for a trade, but it's not a trade I would keep long-term because we are in a bearish trend, okay? So be careful, the market is more likely to continue downwards. Now BTC, it's at a level that it absolutely must defend. Perhaps we will enter a larger range here. It's a possibility. But if we break this level, well, that would be even more concerning, and we would return to the first levels where, for me, long-term, I would start to be interested, here at $92,000, I would start to re-enter slightly in spot because I estimate that after a drop of about -30%, it becomes interesting again on BTC to position oneself for long-term investment. I'm not talking about trading here, I'm really talking about spot buying, and of course, I have much lower buying levels with limit orders in case we reach $73,000-$74,000. We are very far from that. I'm not saying we're going to go there. I'm just saying I'm preparing in case we do, because the structure we're forming here on BTC, I don't find it great. Now, we see that the market is evolving differently. For me, the big dumps with a -30% -40% in a day like BTC used to do are over. I'll take back the drop we experienced. It's certain that when we go up very quickly, we also fall just as quickly. And here it's a -30% in one day on this drop. We retrace part of it, but we still have a drop with high volatility. Even this kind of drop is -20%. Yes. Uh, -20% we can still have, -30% very unlikely. Now, I know there's a big phase here, and even in this big phase where cryptos have dumped a lot, we see that BTC has only dropped -15%. OK, it's not much. If we had this same scenario 3 or 4 years ago, BTC here would be at -30% -40%. So, determine your zones, have good risk management. I did a poll on Discord, it was interesting to see that many had cash set aside. I was talking about it when we were in this zone, when we are in a phase of uncertainty, that I am preparing to have cash in case of a retracement, well, that simply allows us to be flexible. First, not to suffer the drop we can have here. Now, yes, I still have BTC and ETH, so I am suffering this drop on a part of my portfolio, but instead of suffering it on 100% of my portfolio, I will suffer it on 40-50% because I have recovered cash.
So, on BTC, I wanted to share with you from an order flow perspective. It's quite interesting what we have. We have here on, well, this is simply TradingView which allows us to see limit orders that are pending execution. It's simply the representation of an order book but on a graph, we simply see pending orders waiting to be executed, whether they are buys or sells, okay? So, buy orders or sell orders with the number, the quantity of BTC that is simply pending. Okay? So here I have BTC spot, here I have Coinbase spot. So we see that, for example, this zone is a bit defended. We see quite a few sell orders. We have a large buy order here at $102,700. There, it simply allows us to have levels. Now, be careful, these orders can be removed quickly. It's like if tomorrow you put, I don't know, where are we now, at $108,425, 1000 BTC in short. Well, there will be 1000 BTC that will appear on the right contract. So here, we are on the BTC order book on Binance in spot. Now, you can withdraw it from one day to the next. So be careful, it's not because we have a lot of orders here that if we go there, it's sure to be defended. If it's removed at the last moment, it's removed at the last moment. We have an example, it's that we have a guy here, we have a big whale. You see, I've zoomed in a lot here. I can see the different orders, I can filter according to the number I want. And we have a very, very big whale that has been having fun with spoofing for a while. Now, I'm on the perpetual contract of Binance. So on derivatives contracts, we use leverage, and I have a whale, I always have the same one here, that plays with either 2100 BTC or 1900, depending on whether it puts orders like that and then removes them. We have some spoofing that it's doing. It's quite impressive. We have large orders. You see the big spike, if I show all the other orders next to it, it's ridiculous. Next to it, we have maybe one BTC, 5 BTC, you see 38 BTC. And here, we have a big whale that's doing some spoofing on Binance. It's been there for a while. Now, it has phases, you see, sometimes it's gold, I have the impression, but there, it has phases where, well, it must surely be an algorithm, one would have to investigate, but yeah, we have a big whale for a while that plays with orders with a rather large amount, and no orders are executed. They are always withdrawn at the last moment. So, yeah, it's like it was there a while ago, it comes back, it leaves, with always similar amounts, 1.8, 2.1. So, it's clearly spoofing. Perhaps it's being executed on the other side on spot, and that allows it to manipulate the price as it wishes. But in any case, these are orders that are not executed. You see, just after, the market goes there, but we don't execute it. So, that was just for your curiosity for those who use this type of tool like TradingView, which is a very good tool for analyzing order flow. There, on BTC, I've said what I wanted to say. So, if I really take away from this, we have no sign of a bottom for the moment. We have come back to seek a support level that must hold. Longs could have been taken at this level. It's a level we identified together. Now, it's a bit too late to play the rebound. On the other hand, in the short term, I will be rather bearish and look for shorts on everything that comes back to the tunnel, comes back to seek the 15-minute tunnel, the 1-hour tunnel, the 4-hour tunnel.
Ether has strongly corrected, we talked about it, we said that if we lost $3,007, it was heading for $3,000. We stopped slightly above, $3,050. So we are globally coming back to seek our mid-range after a deviation upwards. Like that, a re-entry, well, it's to go seek the opposite extreme. We are coming back to seek around $3,000, which is an interesting first buying level on Ether. For me, anything above $3,000 is too high to position myself. We have fallen a lot, we are still in a bearish trend. Even if we have a rebound, it's normal to have a rebound. If we are in a continuing bearish trend, then we will come back to seek either the 15-minute tunnel to perhaps come back to seek the 1-hour tunnel afterwards to have a continuation and so on and so forth. If we remain in a bearish trend, we have rebounds, it's normal. A bearish trend is not that. A bearish trend is lower lows and lower highs. Okay? But it is accompanied by phases of consolidation of this type of rebound. So again, there are longs that can be taken on Ether at $3,000. However, be careful, there is nothing telling us for the moment. We don't have any signs of a bottom that tells us that Ether is ready to take off again. For that, we would need either a strong re-entry of a level like $3,700, which is not the most probable given the dump we had, or offer here a small structure. There, have a W pattern, an inverted head and shoulders, something perhaps like that. Find a slightly lower re-entry with a pattern, something that shows us that buyers are present and we are reversing our dynamic, ideally by going back above the moving averages. For the moment, it's bearish, don't overthink it in the medium term, we can look for longs when we come back to seek support levels like $3,000. However, in the short term, it's better to look for shorts in the direction of the trend. 15 minutes below 1 hour, 1 hour below 4 hours, downward-oriented moving averages. I can put pivot points to have small confluences. There is a good confluence here at $3,650 with the 1-hour tunnel, if we get there, it could be a good zone, but for me, this is the right mindset to adopt, and we can still perform well even while being in a bearish trend, as I said yesterday or the day before, it reminds me of 2022, or in 2022 we were in a bearish trend, the market crashed. We see Ether going from $3,500 to $900 in just 2-3 months at that level. But in trading, you can perform and you can still get by. You can of course, yes, the best period is when everything is going up because the investment portfolio explodes. The trading portfolio, if you have good execution, well, it performs well, that's the best. But in a bearish dynamic, you can compensate with a trading portfolio. Of course, it's up to you to have good risk management, to know how to enter, and so on and so forth, but it's entirely possible. And for me, 2022 was clearly my case. So there you go, it's up to you to see what interests you the most, but there are opportunities in trading. No matter what, whether we are in an uptrend or a downtrend, there are always opportunities. Now on Ether, I would wait for a bottom to manifest itself to really have a more bullish signal. I have slightly lower buy orders on Ether. I haven't been executed because we stopped at $3,050, I have orders a bit lower and much lower, $2,200 with some cash that I'm keeping in case we go even lower. I don't see Ether going back below $2,100. Otherwise, it would be quite bearish because we would have the break of the range downwards after having made a deviation downwards. Logically, there is no interest in breaking a level like that where we have already had a deviation. Especially since we are still on a project with, well, good potential. We have adoption. For me, the metrics, the data show that Ether should make an ATH and should push. In any case, its intrinsic value, its fundamental value is growing and continues to increase. From a technical point of view, it's a bit more complicated, that's a fact.
So that's it for Ethereum. Now, regarding altcoins, we have altcoins that have corrected a bit more. If I look here on the week, we have altcoins that are taking a hit, Sol, here, Tao, STX. You see, Tao was a strong altcoin. Yesterday, I sold Heo, I told you, I did well because I very quickly saw the re-entry we were making. And I don't like this type of re-entry. Generally, it makes us go from a very strong altcoin to a weak altcoin. We see it at this level. Upper wick, re-entry. I got out immediately because I don't like this kind of phase. So we have quite a few altcoins that have taken a hit, others that have resisted a bit. I'm thinking of ICP which validated the trade very quickly that we saw together. Where is ICP? It's lower. No, it's, hop, magnificent. I closed very quickly at 100%. I don't plan to hold and seek a x3 x4 like some might do. There, simple, effective. We are not far from x2 in a few days. We almost reached it. I closed, as I said, above these highs. I expected this kind of liquidity grab followed by a selling reaction. It wouldn't surprise me if we topped out here and had a retracement now. That's why I want to cut quickly. I shared this with you, you can watch the trade from November 2nd directly on YouTube because we had a rather good signal with this strong pump on a very strong support level and which had a good possibility of going to hunt these highs. These highs, it's done. I'm getting out at 100% because I expect a more significant correction now. Perhaps we will consolidate here, I don't know. But for me, the biggest effect on ICP, and I'm not here to tell you "Yes, enter and wait for x50 x100." You see? Hop, in a few days, in a week here, +80%. That's perfect. There's no need to look for more. Sometimes it will be +30%, sometimes +50%, but most people are looking for x15, x20 which is possible on altcoins. The past shows it, and even the last cycle, there were altcoins on AI, on different narratives that performed, but in this kind of context, I'm looking for +30%, +40%, that's more than enough. No need to look for x10 because by the time you take to find an x10, I will have made enough +30% +40% trades which cumulatively make almost x10, and especially if you find the x10 because it's complicated given the current context. So there you go, a rather interesting trade, a bit against the trend, clearly, especially given the overall trend of cryptos. But we see that there can always be a small altcoin like this that stands out and that, well, can give us very good trades. Otherwise, there isn't really any crypto that stands out. We have a rebound underway. It's perfectly normal, given that when a market corrects with such high volatility downwards, it's normal to have a rebound. Now, we'll have to see if it holds or not.
Now, the altcoins that were asked to be analyzed, I'll get to them right away. So, I have IMO, IMO, IMO. So, what does it look like? First of all, there isn't much liquidity on it. I have all, yes, we'll take it, perfect. So, not much liquidity. We are globally in a range. It's not the kind of chart I personally like to trade. Uh, already, there's very little liquidity, it's a low market cap crypto, you can see it directly. We still have a good range amplitude, but yeah, it's complicated to trade this kind of crypto. Not enough history. The price action is ugly. Honestly, for me, the ideal is to have a bottom that positions itself, that realizes itself simply lower. Maybe at all-time low. Maybe that could be a more interesting signal with a re-entry, something like that. But here, I can't. Either you have strong convictions on the fundamentals and you say "Yes, there's something to enter," but from a technical point of view, it's not great. Very little liquidity on it, you can see it if I switch to 1 hour, ugly. There, the altcoins, very little liquidity, it pumps very quickly, it dumps just as fast. So, yeah, be wary of this kind of crypto. Uh, from a short-term trading point of view, there's nothing to do. You'll get huge spreads. It's impossible to trade this kind of crypto for scalping or intraday. For swing trading, why not? They are not the most interesting charts in my opinion. We have a big resistance here. If we start to break it, we could go make an ATH here and go into price discovery. Otherwise, it's better to look for buys on pullbacks, on support levels, but with a quick invalidation in case we go lower. Uh, next, AKT, AKT has plunged. I bought it at the time, I don't know where I bought it on pullbacks. And I got out, I got out around here because there were not great signals. Ugly dynamic, bearish, and then we see we're entering these consolidation phases, it's here we see that there are cryptos that can perform. That's a fact, AKT has performed. You see earlier, I was talking about x20, we have it here, a large x20, but you have to take into account that not all altcoins will do that, and even the altcoins that do, you have to take your profits because otherwise the market corrects, and holding crypto for 5-10 years. We have the perfect example here. A person can make an x20, can make an x20, but their x20 can be completely wiped out if they don't take profits. And AKT is the perfect example. And there's no sign of reversal. I put moving averages, everything is bearish. Daily tunnel oriented downwards, 4-hour, 1-hour oriented downwards, there's nothing to do on it. And the only possible signal is if we have a reversal pattern, if we have a W structure, something that shows us that buyers are present. For the moment, we don't have it. We could have had it if we had done this here with a re-entry of this level, break of this neckline, but we didn't do it. Uh, that's what's missing. Break of the daily tunnel, validation of a reversal structure like we have here. You see here the inversion of our dynamic. Lower lows, lower highs. Okay. Higher highs, higher lows. Okay. Until reaching a higher high, a higher low. A break, a pullback on our neckline. There. And then we go. Well, here we have to wait globally for the same thing, a pattern that will materialize. Will it be here? Will it be lower? You shouldn't try to anticipate that, but for the moment, there's no signal here that makes me want to enter. And I had a low market cap crypto that is, where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Bera, perfect. Low market cap that is on my list, that I put on the right. So Bera, first of all, we are on a crypto that has a lot of tokens to unlock, given that it's a new, low market cap crypto. We need to take that into account. We see that the entire supply is not in circulation. See total supply, circulating supply. So there you go, we have unlocks that will happen over time. So that can clearly create selling pressure. And from a technical point of view, we validated this top with this consolidation phase. We have started a whole bearish dynamic, lower lows, lower highs. Now, we've entered a consolidation phase. We see it clearly, we have structured a small weekly bottom that was very quickly reabsorbed. There was no buyer support. It's a shame, it happens, but there you go, after all, it remains a young crypto. It's better to validate a larger structure. Daily tunnel rejects. We come back to seek here the previous low where we had buyers who showed themselves. We are clearly in a good zone, given that we are at the bottom of a range. The zone is quite good, and it's better to look for longs in this kind of zone than when we are at the upper extremes. If I put a volume profile here, we are at our value area. A bullish signal is if we re-enter this value area, we have a chance to reach the opposite extreme. There can be a buy signal that can be taken here, provided that we have a reversal pattern and an inversion of our moving averages. For the moment, it's bearish, 15 minutes acting as resistance, 1 hour as well, 4 hours as well, so we don't see something like this breaking moving averages, something. Hop, okay, it can be bought if we have an inversion of our trend, for the moment we don't have it, so I clearly prefer to be cautious.
So that's it for altcoins. Don't hesitate to tell me in the comments which ones you want me to analyze for future videos. We are following the current rebound. Be careful if we come back, as I said, to seek these resistance zones, and well, see if we have a selling reaction or not. It's normal to have a rebound. Be careful, FOMO too, manage your cash and crypto balance well, and above all, respect your plans, your strategy that you have defined recently. I'll leave you with this. For those who want to train and trade the market well right now and especially prepare for what's next, you have everything here in "Become a Trader," and I invite you to click on the first link in the description to take advantage of the €200 offer. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.