Transcription
Good day. Today is Friday, 13th March, 2026. And before I proceed with this program, let me remind you again to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel. If once you've watched and listened to this program or whichever part of this program you want to watch or listen to, you decide that you like what you've heard and you wish to indicate that fact.
Now over the la course of the last 24 hours there was a cascade of reports that began to appear all across the anglophone media the British and American media talking about the hand of Russia in Iran's operations um across the Middle East. The Russians, it was said, were assisting the Ukrainians in their drone offensive. That the Russians have provided the Ukrainians with satellite data and guidance information to assist the Iranians in conducting drone strikes against American bases and against American radar stations across the Middle East. The Russians supposedly have provided training to Iranian drone operators. It has been pointed out that the Shahhead drones that the Iranians use are the original drones from which the Russians develop their Gan drones. The Ghan drones, the in fact the first batches of Ghan drones appear to have been Shahed drones imported by Russia from Iran. And um the Russians obviously established their own production systems. They produce these drones in huge quantities and they use them extensively in the skies over Ukraine to conduct strikes. In fact, the Russians have developed extremely sophisticated operations in which they blend drones with various types of missiles in order to strike at Ukrainian targets. And the Gan drones themselves have evolved significantly. They some of them have acquired jet engines. Others have acquired various um guidance systems so that they can be operated by Russian drone operators from far behind the front lines and directed onto strategic targets deep inside Ukraine. Other Russian drones have um recently been equipped with either air-to-air missiles or anti- small manpads type anti-aircraft missiles to conduct combat against Ukrainian hunter killiller drones and also incidentally Ukrainian fighter jets that seek to attack Russian drones. So, the Russians undoubtedly have developed the Ghan to a very high level and they've also developed other drones of what you might call the Gan family and related families. and they have acquired immense expertise in managing drone warfare. And well in the west they're now saying that the Iranians the reason one of the reasons the Iranians have been so successful operating drones so much more successful with their drones than they were during the initial strikes and counter strikes between Israel and Iran in 2024 is because the Russians have provided them with all sorts of new technology that the Russians have themselves developed and that the Russians have trained the Iranian drone operators and brought them to a very high level of proficiency. And one of the people who has been complaining noisily about all of this has been the British defense secretary John Healey. a notable hardliner, incidentally, in terms of the conflict in Ukraine and a strong advocate of the plan of deploying British and French troops to Ukraine in support, as the British and the French governments say, of a ceasefire, even though the Russians have repeatedly said that that plan is completely unacceptable to them. Anyway, um John Healey has complained about Russian help Russian assistance to the Iranians with their drone warfare. And he says that it was because of this Russian assistance that the Iranians were able to carry out a successful attack on a British base in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Now, when listening and reading this cascade of information, the natural impulse is to reject it entirely. After all, over the last 10 years, more than 10 years, the Russians have been blamed and criticized for all sorts of things, most of which it seems very unlikely they ever did. For example, between 2016 and well 2019 or thereabouts, the media in the United States and Britain was filled with stories about Russian meddling in the US 2016 election with the Russians in effect being blamed for Donald Trump's victory in that election and all sorts of lurid claims that Donald Trump and and the Russians were somehow working together with each other. And of course, the Russians are blamed for other things. A few months ago, I remember discussing on the Duran and on this channel all sorts of allegations about how Russian drones were supposed to be operating over um Western Europe, Danish airports, and all sorts of things of that kind. No real evidence of that was ever produced. Some Russian drones or some Russian manufactured drones uh did enter Poland, but the circumstances of that affair have never actually been properly clarified. And there have been some doubts about that. And of course, there's been lots of claims about other Russian sabotage operations. Again, the evidence has been incredibly thin. And there's also been claims that the Russians have been busy um severing underwater cables. though I saw a report just the other day about two days ago which said that there was no evidence whatsoever that the Russians have interfered or taken any step at all against underwater cables. Of course, that report then disappeared almost immediately. And a short time later, I saw yet another media story claiming that the Russians were indeed acting against underwater cables, oblivious to the fact that there just been a report published which said the opposite. So, we have an awful lot of that going on and it goes on all the time and it's incessant and of course the Russians are supposed to have meddled in the 2024 Romanian presidential election and it turns out that they didn't. Um, and they are now alleged to be meddling in Hungary's forthcoming election. Um here I go with the view of the excellent commentator Thomas Fuzzy who says that this looks like an attempt to delegitimize a victory by Victor Orban in that election should such a victory take place. But anyway, we have this constant stories about the Russians doing all sorts of bad things in Europe, in the United States, around the world, often with no evidence to support it. So, one is tempted to dismiss these allegations that the Russians have indeed been providing this kind of help to the Iranians.
Well, I'm going to say straight away that I think otherwise. I think that there is a very compelling case that the Russians are indeed involved. Now, I'm going to say that I'm going to say that with full acknowledgment that the information is very patchy and that the Russians have not confirmed that they are providing help to the Iranians and the Iranians, for their part, without exactly denying that they have been getting help from the Russians, have given the impression that they're doing it all by themselves. And as I've discussed in many programs, the Iranians do indeed possess extensive skill sets and wide competencies. They have a significant industrial bl. They have many engineers, many very talented engineers. I know I happen to know one by the way, though he currently lives in London. Um they have um a technology sector. Um they certainly have the ability to do quite a lot by themselves. But here I'm going to take go back to certain events that took place as I very well remember in May 2024. In May 20 2024, shortly after the failure of Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive, or perhaps I should correct that, the defeat of Ukraine's 2023 offensive, even as rumors started to spread that the Russians were preparing some kind of operation in Kharkov region. The British government of that time which was a British conservative government and the British foreign secretary of that time who was David Cameron began to spread ideas talk about ideas of Britain, France and the United States supplying long range missiles to Ukraine. Storm shadows, scalps, attackums missiles in order to conduct strikes against targets in pre204 Russian territory. And this idea was discussed as I remember at a NATO meeting and the Russians reacted very strongly. And I remember that the Russians called in the British and French ambassadors and they warned the British specifically I remember the British ambassador, this was in May 2024 that if the British did supply missiles to Ukraine and if those missiles were indeed used to conduct strikes against Russian targets in pre204 Russia. This would be seen and treated in Moscow as Britain crossing a red line and the Russians in that case reserved the right to conduct strikes against British targets anywhere in the world. The British of course did not take that warning seriously and most people ever since have assumed that the Russians never acted have never acted on that warning. There have been many attacks now using Western missiles on targets inside 2014 Russia. the widespread, in fact universal assumption, including the assumption that Alex and I have had in our discussions of this topic on the Duran was that following the election of President Trump of the United States in 2024 and following Trump's interviews in which he spoke of his strong opposition, vehement opposition to western missile strikes inside Russia. The Russians accepted that the policy would change and decided that in light of that change of policy by the Western powers, there would be no need for them to respond to the earlier strikes that the British, the French and the Americans have conducted against targets inside Russia, especially since those attacks. as it turns out, have been ineffectual. So like most people until now, I assumed that the Russians have never acted on those warnings or threats, if you prefer to use that word, to conduct strikes or to arrange strikes against military British military targets anywhere in the world. Now, I remember back in May 2024, I said that I thought it was unlikely that the Russians would conduct the strikes themselves. I said that I thought it was much more likely that if such strikes ever did take place and at that time in May 2024, I thought that the that there would in fact be strikes like that by the Russians that such strikes would indeed take place. Anyway, I said that I thought that the Russians would most likely decide to give themselves plausible deniability by working through proxies. Well, this morning I go to the Daily Telegraph and what do I read? Vladimir Putin's hidden hand is behind Iranian drone strikes on British troops and allies in the Middle East. The defense secretary has said John Healey blamed Russia after a swarm of Iranian drones hit a coalition air base in Elil, northern Iraq. Two drones were destroyed by British forces, but others eluded defenses and struck the base on Wednesday night. It is the third such attack against British troops following a drone strike on RAF RAF Acroi in Cyprus and a missile landing hundreds of yards from a UK from UK personnel in Bahrain. Well, doesn't that sound very much like the very thing I was talking about back in May 2024 and as I remember in several programs I made over the course of 2024 that the Russians, if strikes were indeed made against their country, would buy their time, would work with proxies, and at the appropriate moment would start conducting attacks against British military installations. And of course, Vladimir Putin was at pains to point out over the course of 2024 that in the case of missile strikes by attacks missiles and indeed storm shadow and scout missiles. the attacks could only take place with the active involvement of US military technicians. That the guidance systems not just on the attacks missiles but on the storm shadows and the scouts would need to be worked upon and update data from American data systems. This was, by the way, confirmed in British media reports, as I remember, over the course of 2024. And of course, the Russians have also obviously been aware for some time that the Ukrainian drone offensive against their country also receives guidance assistance from the United States. And sure enough, a short time ago, a couple of months ago, in fact, in late 2025, articles appeared in the US media, in the New York Times which confirmed as much and confirmed that the US has indeed been providing guidance to the Ukrainians to conduct drone strikes against targets inside Russia. And what do we now see? drone strikes by the Iranians using drones almost well very similar shall we say to the Russian Gerans. They are all part of the same family conducted against British bases in Cyprus in Iraqi Kurdistan. American bases across the Middle East. The Americans and the British are apparently surprised. You can read all about this in the media. There is no secret about this. are surprised about the precision of these attacks by these drones. The British are complaining about the fact that the drone operators, the Iranian drone operators have leared to fly the drones, to operate the drones at very low altitudes, making them much more difficult for the British and the Americans to track them. And well, we see that there's been attacks and damage done on British bases in Kurdistan, in Cyprus, and American bases across the Middle East. Does that not look like the Russians acting on the warnings that they gave in 2024 when the strikes, the missile strikes against their country took place? I would suggest that it does and I would suggest that though the case is circumstantial the evidence or at least let's not call it the evidence the reason for thinking that the Russians are indeed providing the Iranians with advice and assistance to conduct drone strikes and for all I know missile strikes as Well, perhaps acting on those previous warnings they gave is compelling. I remember that the original Iranian drone attacks in 2024 were or so it seemed to me a great deal less effective than the drone attacks we see now. I have no reason to doubt the skill of Iranian drone operators. After all, they were the ones who developed these sort of drones in the first place. But then again, they don't have anything like the kind of combat experience that the Russians now do. the understanding and knowledge of how to conduct drones for maximum effect. I wonder whether the Iranians had the guidance systems had the knowledge of how to develop guidance systems for their drones. And by the way, implicit in what John Healey is saying is that some of these shahad drones now do have guidance systems. And again, one wonders whether the Iranians obtained the technology to do that from the Russians. Just saying. Anyway, to me, the pattern of this offensive, this drone offensive by the Iranians, the strikes on the bases, the American bases in the Middle East, the strikes on the radar stations, all of that is so consistent with the sort of warnings that the Russians were giving in 2024 and later that I don't myself think that there is actually that much reason to doubt that the Russians are indeed providing the Iranians with this sort of help.
Now I'm going to say that something further happened over the last 24 hours which made me think that and that is that I received an email from the source who provides me with regular updates about the kind of chatter and discussion that is taking place inside the Russian parliament. the Doomer. Now, to be very clear, this person obtains his information from the Doomer's messaging boards, which are very lightly classified. I have no doubt, for example, that the that Western governments are able to read these messaging boards. Um, the Russian government must be aware of this, too. There's nothing on these messaging boards therefore that is particularly secret. Anyway, it seems that within the Duma there's a great deal of chatter about the situation in the Gulf of Hormuz, the straight of Hormuz specifically. And here before I proceed, I should express a correction. I was skeptical of denials two days ago. Denials that the denials claiming that the Iranians had not in fact mined the Straits of Hormuz. It seemed to me such an obvious thing to do for the Iranians to do that I assumed that they had done it. Especially since as of that time it was the United States that was denying that the straits of the straight of Hormuz had been mined and the Iranians themselves had said nothing. Well, the Iranians have now actually spoken about this. They are now saying that they have not conducted they have not mined the straight of hormuz though they do have the capability to do that and it is indeed something that they might eventually do. But though they have not mined the straight of Hormuz, they have done something else. They have deployed underwater drones to the Persian Gulf. It was these underwater drones that attacked the various tankers and did the damage and in fact appear to have basically put these tankers out of action. And for the Iranians, there is a particular advantage in using these type of drones because they can indeed open and close the straight of Hormuz at will. And again, I was skeptical about cargos, tankers crossing the straight of Hormuz shipping oil from Iran to China. I could not understand why the United States, why the US Navy would be allowing that to happen. But it turns out the Iranians themselves have confirmed that it is indeed happening. And it does seem as if Iranian at least tankers I don't know they're Iranian tankers are indeed shipping oil through the straight of Hormuz to China and that this has indeed enabled Iran to increase its oil exports over the last few weeks. I find it extraordinary and I am bewildered again that the US Navy is not interfering with this trade has not imposed its own counter blockade on Iranian exports of oil. Um, there are so many unanswered questions about the conduct of this US operation up to now that there are more holes in it, frankly, than a Swiss cheese. But I'm not going to discuss all that in this program. Anyway, it seems that the Iranians can and do openshot the straight of Hormuz when they please. Today, apparently they've allowed an a tanker wi with oil destined for India to pass the straight of Hormuz. Other ships, other tankers with oil intended for other countries, more western oriented countries. By contrast, they are not allowed to pass. Anyway, the Iranians can do that because instead of closing the straits, the straight of Hormuz with conventional sea mines, they're operating this game with drones, both missiles and air drones, but also they have underwater drones, or perhaps more accurately, drones that operate on the surface, but which are very, very difficult difficult to observe anyway that these drones enable the Iranians to open and shut the straight of hormones as they please.
Well, returning to the gossip, it I think it's more than gossip. The chatter that is taking place in the doomer, the Russian parliament, the Russian MPs are apparently telling each other that these drones are copies of Ukrainian underwater drones, water drones, the drones that the Ukrainians have used to attack Russian shipping or shipping, fing Russian oil in the Black Sea, and um drones, which the UK Ukrainians have also used, by the way, to try to make to to attack the Kirch Bridge. just say that um the Russians captured several of these drones either intact or largely intact, that they did a careful examination of these drones and that they shared the technology with the Iranians and the Iranians learned both how to make these drones and how to operate them ultimately from the Russians. So there it is. And this information which I have been getting out of the Russian Parliament which I have alluded to in many many programs has been consistently reliable and I see no reason to doubt this particular story. So there it is. Now, if the Russians are helping the Iranians with their water drones, why should they not also be helping the Iranians with their shits? Why should they not be helping the Iranians with satellite data? Why should they not be helping the Iranians to improve the accuracy of some of their missiles given the Russian warnings of 2024 which I have discussed? Isn't it at least plausible that they would? Now, of course, it is likely that the Russians would have provided some level of assistance to the Iranians, even if there had been no missile strikes into pre204 Russia. If there had been no attackums or storm shadows or scalps launched against Russian targets, but I wonder whether the assistance would have been quite as extensive as what I suspect we are now seeing. Anyway, this is my own view. Again, I accept that there is a speculative quality to some of this, but one of the things that has struck me is the silence from the Russians about this. Um, Witgo says that the Russians denied to him and Putin denied to Trump that Russia was providing assistance to Iran. But then have Western governments themselves ever formally publicly admitted that they provide guidance data to the Ukrainians. We've had admissions that this is so in the US media primarily, but I don't recall the director of the CIA, for example, or the president of the United States or the secretary of def of defense or the secretary of state coming forward and saying that the United States has been directly involved in a missile and drone campaign. against Russia. Just saying. So why would the Russians make the kind of official admissions that the western powers for their part have never formally made. Just saying. So, um, if Russia really were not providing assistance of the kind that has been talked about, especially over the last 24 hours to Iran, then I would have expected strong denials from the foreign ministry from Peskov and up to this time up to this moment I'm not aware of any such thing probably at some point some sort of denial will be made but given that the denial has been made in has not been made forcefully I wonder whether one should anyway way at that point place a huge amount of weight on such denials. Anyway, for me, the facts tell their own story. I accept again that there is an element of speculation of my own here, but it is consistent with what the Russians said in 2024, and it makes sense of some of the things that we're seeing playing out in the Middle East at the present time.
Now, here perhaps it's worth saying something further. If the Russians are indeed providing the kind of support to Iran that I've been talking about in this program, then the longer this continues, the more likely it is that the Russians will ramp up further the help that they are giving. At the moment, the help appears to be limited to intelligence assistance and perhaps some assistance in drone warfare and perhaps in improving the accuracy of missiles. But there are further possibilities. The Russians have established enormous factories as we know to produce drones. I remember that in the late summer of last year there was a great deal of speculation that the Russians would achieve production levels of a thousand Gan drones a day. I was expecting to see Russian drone attacks on Ukraine of a thousand get drones a day based on those levels of production. It's interesting and unexplained why in fact production well attacks of that kind have not taken place. I wondered about it. I wondered whether perhaps the Russians were stockpiling huge numbers of Gan drones in advance of an offensive. Perhaps that is true and maybe we will indeed see huge numbers of Garm drones over Ukrainian SP skies very soon when the Russians begin their spring offensive. Just saying. But could it also be that the Russians are producing drones already for Iran and that some of that production of drones is now happening for Iran? just say one would expect if that was so that there would be some signs of this that some of the drones that had impacted would carry for example Russian lettering or would include Russian subco components and so far that doesn't seem to be the case. More likely the Russians are stockpiling drones. But eventually if this war drags on, the Russians will start to supply some of these drones that they've stockpiled to the Iranians. expectations that the Iranians will in that case run out of drones or be unable to produce more drones. Expectations which I've never entertained might in that case prove to be misplaced. Anyway, this is what I'm going to say about this topic in this program today. Um, I think that this time because of all of these surrounding factors, one should not be in too much of a hurry to deny reports of Russian assistance to Iran. It's the famous case of the little girl that cries wolf and does so many times. Well, this time the wolf is indeed there and western governments are crying wolf. And of course, because they've done it with so little basis, with no foundation before, the assumption is that this time it must be the same and that there is nothing in this story. I think otherwise it may be that events in the future will prove me wrong. But I have had that report about what people in the doomer are saying to each other. And as I said, it is consistent with warnings that the Russians themselves gave. And why not think that the Russians have acted on those warnings? I did specifically say, I remember in 2024 that given that the Russians in acting on those warnings would be likely to act through a proxy. that one of those proxies would quite plausibly be Iran. Anyway, there we are. Uh, a further problem, a further complication that the United States and indeed Britain and France are facing in this war. Um, I'm going to just add perhaps one further point and this is that I wonder whether the Briansk attack which took place several days ago, the sudden attack on Brians with apparently six or seven storm shadow missiles wasn't a revenge attack. maybe by the British or instigated by the British for these Russian attacks or these drone attacks. Maybe not Russian attacks, Iranian attacks, these drone attacks on British personnel and British bases. Um, it would explain many things. It would explain the suddenness of this attack. We haven't seen storm shadow attacks take place for some time. And it would explain why the Russians seem so sure that the British rather than the French were behind it. And it might also explain why the Russians were to some extent taken by surprise. because it might be that some sort of understanding had previously been reached that attacks of this kind on Russia would not occur. Well, it may be that the British felt that if there was such an understanding, it should no longer apply because of the drone attacks on their bases. and they struck back with this attack on Briansk. If so, it is a particularly unwise move because of course that might lead the Russians to provide further assistance to the Iranians to conduct further attacks on British military targets. There is a lot of controversy in Britain about why the British military has kept so distant from this conflict. Emanuel Macron has deployed French forces to the Middle East, but Britain conspicuously has not. And there's been a great deal of complaint about it from the Americans. President Trump in particular appears to be furious with Star. Could it be that the British realize that in light of what happened with the previous storm shadow attacks on Russia, they think it wiser to keep their navy out of harm's way. Speaking of which, of course, the French have also provided scalp missiles and I speculated recently that the attack on Brians might have been conducted with French scalp missiles launched by Mirage fighter jets operating from the Adessa area. That's what the Russians are saying anyway, that it was from Adessa, not Constantinov as some people have said. If so, then might that not explain why there's been an attack apparently on a French base and why according to Macron, a French soldier has been killed. Just saying. Anyway, I don't want to say more. I've said all I think I can. Um, you can look at the facts. You can reach your own conclusions. I have reached mine. I have set them out in this program. Of course, if we have denials and if those denials are convincing, I will revise my views and I will say as much in a future program.
Anyway, as to the war itself, it seems to me that we are I'm not going to say in a stalemate. I should stress when I say the war, I mean the Iran war. We are in a stalemate. There is the still a blockade obviously of the straight of Hormuse. Energy prices remain elevated. There are fears of recession in Britain. The media has been talking about that this today. There are worries apparently about the economic situation in the United States. Apparently consumers even in the United States are already starting to notice the situation in the gas stations. Just saying. And anyway, there is growing worry and nerves about this. And returning to the Russians, um the United States, Scott Bessant has now said that the United States has relaxed sanctions on Russian oil for 30 days in order to help cushion oil markets. He was as pained to say that this is only a temporary measure and that um this is basically only intended to use up all the oil, the Russian oil which was already at sea. And at the end of those 30 days, the United States intends to impose those sanctions again. Um, the EU and Britain by the way are very unhappy about this American decision and they have criticized it. But frankly, I cannot imagine I cannot see what serious alternative the Americans the Trump administration actually has. Now, this of course begs the question of what exact sanctions is the United States talking about? The United States has imposed sanctions on Lucille and Ros, two of the big Russian oil exporting companies. Um, so far as I am aware, other Russian oil, oil produced by other companies, other Russian oil companies is unaffected by sanctions. um most of the oil from Russia that has been going to India over the last few weeks before this so-called relaxation of the sanctions has is not produced by Lucille and Ros Neft just to say presumably this 30-day window covers oil produced and exported by Lucille and Bosnft. But I wonder how much oil of that sort there actually is on the ships. just just to say um surely by now the Russians will have ensured that most of the oil on the ships is produced by other producers except oil that was destined for China where we know that the Chinese pay no attention to these sanctions. So what exactly are the sanctions that Bessant is talking about? Is he talking about the license to India to import oil from Russia that the United States recently talked about? Of course this license is a license from higher tariffs on India. if it imports Russian oil. I'm not sure. I think there's a big question mark over the legality of those tariffs anyway at the moment in light of the recent Supreme Court decision. Just saying. The Indians have recently said that they have never stopped buying Russian oil and never promised to stop buying Russian oil despite those tariffs and despite Donald Trump's claims that they'd stopped buying that Russian oil. Um, is that what Bessant is talking about? Or is he talking perhaps about the G7 oil price cap that was imposed on Russian oil transported by ship, which denied insurance from the London insurance market to ships that carry Russian oil above that price cap. But in fact, mostly ships that transport Russian oil have do not seek insurance from London and export that oil regardless of the price price cap. So I'm not even sure what Bessant is talking about exactly. But put that aside, we should not fail to notice the absurdity of what he is saying. So, Bessant, who is the US Treasury Secretary, is saying that the United States has arrogated to itself the power to turn on or off the Russian oil tap as it chooses. I mean, that is in effect what Bessant is saying. So that the United States will allow Russia to export its oil for 30 days, but then will decide that it won't export allow Russia to export oil 30 days from now. I mean that makes absolutely no sense. Oil contracts are negotiated over lengthy periods just to say. And um one doesn't usually expect the entire contracts to be sorted out and completed with the delivery of the oil within just 30 days. Would Russia continue would Russia supply any oil to India at all for example if it believed that in 30 days time it would no longer be able to do so. Surely if the Russians are now accelerating sales of oil to India as by all accounts they are doing they've had some assurance from India that India will continue to buy oil at similar levels beyond those 30 days. Again, so much of what is said over the course of this sanctions makes absolutely no sense to me. And I wonder again whether the US Treasury SK Secretary Scott Besson or by the by the way the US energy secretary Chris Wright actually know what they're talking about. And of course, all of this assumes that the Straits of Hormuz crisis is resolved in 30 days. What if it is not? Is the US still going to reimpose the 30-day the sanctions on Russia in 30 days? Close the 30-day window. Where is the oil supposed to come from? From the United States itself. I was reading in the Financial Times, by the way, yesterday the first admission that the United States might itself decide to hold back oil to block exports of oil as Jimmy Carter apparently once did in the event that the energy crisis continues. Anyway, there it is. Um, lots of confusion, lots of uncertainty. It is still remarkable to me that the British and the Europeans more affected by the energy force shortfalls than the United States itself is now criticizing the United States for a forced measure. this relaxation of the oil sanctions on Russia which is obviously intended to stabilize oil markets. It again illustrates the extreme nature of the obsession that European governments suffer from when it comes to Russia. Anyway, there it is. That's what I'm going to say about all of all of that.
In the meantime, the war itself, the war in Iran continues in exactly the same way. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Iranians are still defiant. Their government structures are still intact. The Israelis and the Iran Americans still bomb them. The Iranians to the extent that they can, which is considerable, continue to conduct their drone attacks across the Middle East and against targets in Israel itself. I don't see that anything up to now has changed. Pete Hgsith is saying that at some point the United States will break the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Scott Besson said an extraordinary thing. He said that the United States planned had prepared a plan to break the closure to force open the straits of Hormuse and had worked on that for months before the start of the war. Uh, Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis of the US military responded, um, "How can anybody take that seriously? How can anybody take seriously a claim that the United States has already prepared months in advance such a plan when 30 days after the start of the existing conflict we see no sign of any such plan being implemented. I am not sure what this plan is. I am not sure whether it exists. I wonder increasingly whether all this talk is in order to reassure energy markets. But anyway, for the moment, there is still no clear sign that the United States is looking for an offramp with Iran. two European countries according to the Financial Times, however, are we read in the Financial Times that um France and Italy, this is the main story on the Financial Times. France and Italy open talks with Iran in hopes in hope of securing safe hormous package passage. European countries including France have opened talks with Thrron seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe package passage for their ships through the straight of Hormuz according to people briefed on the efforts in a bid to restart energy shipments from the Gulf and European capitals have opened the tentative discussions in attempt to restart oil and gas exports without expanding the conflict. Three officials briefed on the to talks told the Financial Times as shipping companies look to Western navies to provide potential escorts for their tankers. And we then read that there was no guarantee that the talks would progress or that Iran was willing to negotiate on the issue to the officials stressed and Thrron is widely suspected of trying to boost or oil and natural gas prices to pressure US President Trump to end the conflict and Iran's new Supreme Leader U Mad Kame vowed on Thursday to keep blocking the straight. Anyway, so the French and the Italians are in discussions with the Iranians to see whether the st the Gulf the straight of Hormuz can be reopened. That doesn't suggest to me much confidence on their part that any US military operation to open the Strait of Hormuz is going to succeed. or will take place at all. Just saying. But anyway, there is no sign at the moment that the United States is looking for an offramp. Nor is there any sign that the Iranian government is losing control of the situation inside Iran. And so we are not in a state of stalemate at the moment. I think it's premature to talk in that way. But this battle of endurance between Iran and the United States and its Israeli ally that I've talked about in previous programs, that at least continues to be underway. And I read an article yesterday by David Blair, no relation by the way to the prime minister in the Daily Telegraph saying that the Iranian leaders have every reason to think that this is a battle of attrition that the moment they are reading, they're winning. And I also read earlier today a long piece again in the Financial Times by Vali Nazer. Iran is playing a long game. An asymmetric war that brings the global economy to a standstill could exhaust the US and force a ceasefire. That's the subtitle. And we're told that um um Valin Nazir is a professor at John Hopkin, John's Hopkins University. And well, he describes the entire Iranian strategy in great detail in this article in the Financial Times in ways which I have to say differ remarkably little from what you will have heard on this channel. and what others Alistister Crook, Douglas McGregor, all sorts of others, Daniel Davis have been saying as well. Anyway, that's that's what I'm going to say about the state of this war.
Um, there is the other war that is also continuing and well here um the war in Ukraine to be precise here I would take as my starting point a very interesting article that I read yesterday in Raidovka a newspaper Russian newspaper based Smolinsk, which um has very very close connections to the Russian military and which unusually, by the way, Reovka specifically said was in this occasion actually sourced from the Russian military and they were reporting on information that they had obtained. as well from Russian soldiers on the front lines. And this article specifically concerned the ongoing battle for Constantinfka. I'd expected Constantine to be captured by the Russians in February and had been somewhat surprised that that did not take place because it seemed to me that the situation with supplies for the Ukrainian garrison is in in Constantine is getting worse and worse and I doubted that the Ukrainians would be able to maintain their positions. Well, Raovka discussed all of this in detail. It discussed how all of the main supply routes into Constantin have been closed. That the Russians have destroyed two dams which have flooded part of the supply routes into Constantin. and how the Russians now have tight dome drone control over all of the remaining routes. There is still one route left that the Ukrainians in Constantine have can in theory use, but it is becoming increasingly dangerous. And I noticed that even the mapping projects are now starting to show Russian forces holding Constantinfka in pincers and indeed very close to the outskirts of Constantinfka both on the east and the western side. Now, Raovka didn't use the word cauldron to describe the situation of the Ukrainian troops in Constantinovka. But what they were describing did remind me very much of what happened a few months ago in Pakovsk and Mirnograd that the Russians did not complete a total encirclement of Pakovsk and Mirnograd but they established tight drone control over the few remaining supply lines into those two towns which in theory remained open and the result was an effective encirclement and as the weeks passed it became increasingly clear that that was indeed what had happened. Now here it's worth remembering that the first people to report the fact that there was a cauldron in Pakross Mirinograd were the Russian military in a report they gave to Vladimir Putin when Putin visited one of the headquarters and received a briefing there. And at the time there was a lot of speculation and doubt whether this this briefing was true, but basically it turned out that it was. And as we know soon after a couple of weeks of tightening this cauldron, Pakross and Mirnugrad passed fully under Russian control. I wonder whether we aren't seeing essentially the same thing that the Russians have in effect done in Constantin exactly what they previously did in Pakovsk Mirnograd essentially encircle the Ukrainian troops there. Just saying of course I say that I am not there. I am not on the ground. But if in a few weeks time on the eve of the Russian spring offensive, we have another meeting between Putin and the generals with the television cameras there recording what they're saying. and the general's report to Putin about the encirclement and the cauldron of the Ukrainian forces in Constantinovka. I will not be surprised in the slightest. There appears to be another cauldron developing not just in the town of Leman but for the Ukrainian troops located around Leman further in the north and of course in Zaporia region itself. It looks as if whatever offensive the Ukrainians were carrying out there has not only stopped but has indeed reversed. And the Russians do continue to advance north of Bakovsk. But all of this is a topic to be discussed in more detail in future programs. Though we are also fortunate to be doing a program which we will be releasing very soon with Stanislav Kapnik in which he describes the situation. He will provide us with the expert information that he has on the actual situation on the front lines. Now of course the missile and drone attacks by the Russians and the Ukrainians upon each other continue. The Russians, I notice, have recently been focusing on destroying electricity substations. They've been starting to attack the smaller ones, having presumably inflicted significant damage on the bigger ones. Just saying. But over and above and beyond all of that, um, I wanted to just reference an update about the military situation that has been provided by the Ukrainian journal Strana, which is of course a patriotic Ukrainian journal, but one which is in conflict with the Ukrainian government and which I now I understand is now based somewhere in Western Europe. I'm not exactly sure where. Anyway, Strana has been an interesting commentator and it's provided an interesting perspective on the um situation in Ukraine. They doubt that there will be any big Russian breakthroughs in 2026. They say that the density of drones makes that unlikely. And they say that the course of the war shows that Russian offensives have actually been slowing. Now I am going to push back on that. Over the course of 2025, the summer autumn 2025 offensive, the Russians captured significantly more territory than they captured during the spring, summer, autumn 2024 offensive. The Russians also captured more territory during the 2025 2026 winter than they captured during the 2024 2025 winter. I am not sure where people see this evidence of slowdown. Um, I would add that Strana questions whether the Russian military will focus on capturing Donbass, on capturing the remaining 15% of Donetsk region which Ukraine still controls. I personally believe that they will. Raidovka's argument is that the Russians will achieve a more decisive outcome by advancing to the Neper the Zaporo Adro which it appears to accept that they can actually do than by capturing the remainder of Dombas. But here I would say that it seems to me that there is a clear political imperative for the Russians to capture the remainder of Dombas which they have of course set out themselves in many statements. After all, it was in part protecting Donbass, which was the original rationale for the special military operation. Anyway, we shall see what happens. A spring summer offensive I am certain will take place and I believe it will be on a significantly bigger scale than Strana expects. And with the interruption of supply of air defense interceptors, air airto-air missiles, other essential equipment from the United States. It seems to me that Ukraine, as I discussed in my program yesterday, is in a worse position than it has been at any point in the war to resist the offensive that is coming. I've also said that contrary in the past that contrary to claims about the Russians being exhausted and unable to sustain an offensive. The reality is that they have armed, trained and equipped reserves in abundance. We shall see what comes. Um, we are now in the season of the Thor, the spring Thor, in the season of the Rasputita. But once that ends, I expect that things will start to move and I suspect that they will move faster. And just as the 2025 offensive captured more territory than the 2024 offensive, I see no reason why the 2026 offensive should not capture a lot more of ground, including key towns and other places than was true in 2025. Anyway, this is where I finish my program today. Let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms, Locals, Rumble, and X. You can support our work via Patreon and Subscribe Star, and by going to our shop links under this video. Last but not least, if you've liked this video, please remember to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel. That's me for today. More from me soon. Have a very good day.