Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good spirits, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal of Monday, October 20, 2025, in front of a completely green crypto market which is pleasing. It's starting green for cryptos, it's starting green also for Wall Street, also for Europe. Everyone is pushing, everyone is happy. Why is everyone happy? Because yesterday Trump gave an interview, he said that well, with President Xi, they were going to meet not very long from now, in about 10 days at the end of the month to talk about all of this. He said that President Xi was a formidable man and that he adored him and loved him with all his heart now and that he was doing everything for his country. Here is the big joke we were talking about last week. Last week, when we were in total crash, just for fun. I told you if it's the same music playing since Trump has been in power, first he hits the markets, they crash, and then he says "Actually, I adore him, he's formidable, he does this for everyone," and it didn't fail. It didn't fail. So it's certain that in last Friday's crash, you took a hit, you lost a lot of money. BR, you really didn't do well at all, you see, because it's ultimately a big pump and dump, just fine. Anyway, for now, October has been a bit red. It's been since 2019 that we haven't seen a red October. Now, be careful, there are about ten days left. Will Bitcoin finish October green or not in the next 10 days? In any case, if it finishes in the mo- well, it will be red, but it will still be slightly red. We went to check the extreme Fear and Greed Index. Extreme fear was yesterday and the day before. For now, we are only in fear, so to speak. Why? Because it's going up. We see that the altcoins here have held their 200-day moving average well. It's very nice. See, we fell hard, we went back up, we fell a little less hard and it pushed back. There are nice bullish divergences, okay, which are being displayed thanks to this nice 200-day moving average here at 715 billion dollars which is holding the bears well, they are starting to lose momentum. Well, it's not too bad. What would be needed is to aim for the 50-day moving average around 834 million and break the 50-day moving average. Then, things are looking good. Basically, altcoins need to go up by about +10%. And if they manage to go up by about +10%, it's off again for another 15%. However, for the structure, we need to be careful. We took the hit, we went back up on a wave A. Now, we can say we are in a wave B. Are we starting a wave C here that will break everything and therefore later fall, or is this still internal to wave B and ultimately, we will just take a big hit and later, we will do wave C to then take a nuclear hit. Well, we feel that the medium term is not great. We had it yesterday. Uh, we can't say "Yes, it's good, we're going to the moon, all-time high." Ah, it doesn't feel like that yet, you see. Well, it's normal. After a huge crash, it will take time to make a small bottom. A bottom takes several weeks to form, you see. And it can retest the lows a bit, you know the tune. So for now, as long as we don't break the highs here, altcoins could still be in wave B and have this kind of small bullish channel that breaks, you see. So we need to be a little careful even if it's nice to have bullish divergences here, it's nice that the 200-day moving average holds the structure. For now, it's not the most bullish structure, the structure tells us that well, in the medium term, we could, whether it's a small A, small B, C and boom, or whether it's finishing B first and then we'll finish the and boom, there will be a boom, you see, which risks to sting unfortunately, it's a shame. Basically, the short term looks good this week, I think. It will be good. It will be good until the inflation figures come out on Friday. I'll talk about it in 2 minutes. So it can be good this week, but it can be bad in 2 weeks. You see what I mean? To make a vaccine. Well, our beloved Bitcoin here, which had broken the 200-day moving average which is around 10785, has recovered. Very nice, it continues to push. So now, heading for the next resistances. Here, we have a good cluster of resistances up to around 115,500 dollars. A Bitcoin making a nice green candle that breaks this whole cluster of resistances, breaking around 115,500 or even 116,000. Come on, if you round it, boom, it could be heading for the upper Bollinger band at 128,000. A big rise like that remains possible. Well, now we need to be careful because structurally, it's not the most beautiful structure in the world. We had the big crash. We have here small A, small B, it can go for a small C, but as long as it doesn't break 116,000 approximately, it's 116,900. Come on, let's round it to 117,000. 117,000 is right in the short zone of the movement. So as long as we don't break 117,000, we could have boom, the descent. It could go up a little bit, a little bit, but it could be the descent that continues. Here, the structure is unfortunately not very, very nice. Uh, if you want the scenario of breaking 116,000 and going to look for 128,000. So this scenario, boom. Well, this scenario is a bit strange because structurally, well, it doesn't look like anything anymore, you see, because here you have a structure, you're starting a new corrective structure. Here it's a wave A. Now, it could be possible if we have here well, wave A, wave B starts, makes an all-time high to make a wave C afterwards to then start again. Yes, that remains possible. We could have that, but that would mean we are in a running flat which remains a possible structure where well, Bitcoin explodes, explodes, explodes, explodes and goes directly to the upper Bollinger band at 128,000 for wave A, for wave B, and then it can do a C and then it leaves. That's wave A, wave B, wave C. And also via the scenario which would rather be the regular flat, instead of doing a running, that would be the best structure, the running flat with that is wave A, wave B starts suddenly, breaks the all-time high, wave C makes a small correction and boom, it starts again in bull run mode. Well, that would be the most beautiful scenario, the best one. Let's not forget the regular one. It's the scenario with the highest probability of happening, it's wave A here. Let's assume wave A is finished, it might not be finished, it means that boom, we might have fallen. Let's assume wave A is finished, meaning wave B will rise but not break 126,000, and meaning wave C, boom, will go below 103,000, and then it will start again. And this is still a bullish continuation structure. Well, so both structures are bullish continuation structures, there's no problem, but we understand well that as long as Bitcoin doesn't make a new all-time high, we will see hell again. That's why I say that well, you have to look at different time frames. On the daily, it's rather good. We can see cryptos continuing to rise these days. But in the medium term, that is to say what we could have in 2 weeks, about 10 business days, well, unfortunately, you see, after grinding, grinding, boom, descent for a potential regular. Knowing that wave A here is not necessarily finished, you shoot, I bounce, I shoot, I bounce, you see? And boom, I can shoot again. So here, potentially wave A is not finished. To know that wave A is finished, we would need to break here around 116,000. 116,300 dollars. If we break this high, things will look good. Really very good. Why? Because structurally, breaking this high will tell us that it's wave B that is starting. And so, we are moving forward. It means we have finished A. Good news, you see. And so it means we are in B. B can break the all-time high or not. Well, it doesn't matter. There will be a wave C. If it doesn't break 126,000, wave C will go below 103,000 and then it can start again. And if wave B breaks 126,000, then wave C will not go below 123,000. And so what we want to really say "Ah, things are looking good, it's broken here, it's around 116,000 dollars and then we'll say well, it's wave B that's starting and that's it, the structure, we wait for B to rise, for the last C to arrive and it's over." But why am I saying this? Why am I saying it's good news? Because well, the problem is that if it sends boom, boom, shoot, maybe A is not finished. And if A becomes large, it means that B will do this and that C, it can go, oh dear, it can be ugly. So it will depend on the intensity of A. So let's hope that Bitcoin will quickly retrace here to around 116,000 to avoid A continuing to fall. A big shot. Now, for the moment, there are no signs of reversal. We can't say well, it's falling. Now, we could say it's a small bullish channel that could break. It remains possible. Uh, it needs to move away. If it starts to make a small bearish channel, well boom, it will start to rise and then things will look very good. Well, excuse me, I'm talking a lot about liquidity here, we see that there's quite a bit to seek down to 101,000 dollars. So will it go and get all that? Will it break 116,000 here to go and get for example around 117, 118,000 around 8.5 billion to make wave B. Then after, boom, wave C which will go down to 103,000, you see, or even a bit lower, 100,000. And then it starts again. So there's a big cluster. The big cluster is up to 116,000. You see, the big cluster is up to about 116,000. Now, what would be tricky, you see, is that it doesn't break 116,000. It goes up a bit. It goes up a bit to scrape all that and before breaking here, well boom, it falls and unfortunately that means it's still wave A, you see, and that wouldn't be great. Regarding Ethereum. Well, the daily is not bad. It bounced several times on the Bollinger bands. What would be good for it is to break its 50-day moving average or 4286, and in that case, it would go and seek its upper Bollinger band at 4760. For now, the bears are getting a bit tired, which is good news. There is also bullish divergence that has appeared on Ethereum. So it's rather good news. For the structure, it's the same. It's the same structure, you see. So here, potentially a small A, small B, a small C. As long as it doesn't break the high here around 4300, I'm rounding. But unfortunately, we can, normally if it's supposed to go up, it must break, sorry, it must break around 4300. If it does a good small A, small B, if B is finished, if B doesn't continue, you see like this. So if B is finished, and here it's a small C that's starting, then it will break, it will enter the short zone to break around 4300. And that will be a small regular, but then boom, to fall again. Okay? Because as long as it doesn't break the high around 4757, well unfortunately it will go below its low at 3464 approximately. A bit the equivalent, if you like, of Bitcoin. Well, same structure, it doesn't change. And we see that there is a lot of liquidity on both sides. We have a bit more to the south than to the north. You see, there are a lot of longs that have come to rest. So you can feel that it will zig and zag on a regular flat or a running flat. So that means that if we see, for example, Ethereum passing 4300, 4300, can it do it? Yes, because there's something to eat, you see, up to 4300, it's around there. So that means it wants to eat this whole cluster. So it can go and look for around 4300 and all that. But we'll have to be careful that afterwards, well, after validating little by little, boom, it's the descent to go and eat all that. And there, unfortunately, it will go, sorry, I'll zoom in a bit, it will go below approximately 3464 dollars. There. So you understand well that some will ask me, the binaries, are they bullish or bearish? In the coming days, it can be bullish, you see. If you take Bitcoin, well, it could scrape, scrape, scrape, it could scrape a bit higher, very good. But on the other hand, in the medium term, that is to say here, 2 to 10 business days, boom, as long as we don't make a new all-time high, it's hello below 103,000, you see. So that's why you have to be careful about that, you see. It's bullish, meaning if it's in wave B, well it's bullish for the coming days, it can rise in the coming days, but in 10 business days, you can have wave C sending you to hell. There. So there's no "it's bullish or bearish," these are beginner words who don't understand anything. You don't ask those questions, you see. It depends on the time frame. There, I'm answering some comments that will be posted, you see, in advance. Well, it means nothing. It's bullish or bearish, you see. Well, it's bullish, meaning it's bullish, it's going up. So it's going up, but for how long? Forever, until the end of time, you see, that doesn't exist. It's always waves, waves, waves. It goes up, it corrects, it goes up, it corrects, it corrects, it corrects more strongly downwards, and then it goes up. It's chaotic, isn't it? That's how it is. That's why I'm here. Otherwise, I'd say "Hello friends, it's bullish. See you tomorrow." There, we'll meet again in 6 months. It's bearish. Now, regarding Solana, the 200-day moving average has held well several times. Bravo, it's very nice. For Solana to be good, it would need to break this Kijun around 204, the 50-day moving average around 215, and aim for its upper Bollinger band at 247. Well, now, we understand that if Solana breaks its 200-day moving average at 175, it's hell. For now, the bears are tiring, which is good news. It's bullish or bearish? Well, in the short term, in the coming days, it can be bullish, calmly rising a bit more. Now, the very good news would be to break here around 212. Well, uh, because in that case, it would mean that well, it would finish the structure, small A, small B, small C, well all that would be the big B for this wave A, for this B, for this wave C. Now, as long as Solana, like Bitcoin, doesn't break its old highs, which are around 240. Well, it will go below 170, but that will be to finish the structure and boom, start again. That's the good news. There. And so what we would want, like Bitcoin, is for Solana to go and seek the old highs. To tell us "Ah, it's good, it's making B." So ultimately, well, A is finished, you see. Because if, like Bitcoin, suddenly, bam, it falls here, boom, boom, it falls, you are still in the big wave A and we will cry because it will be a large and long corrective structure, you see. Well yes, the bigger A is, the longer and bigger the structure will be. Well, I'll notice that I avoid those words, you see. Well, regarding liquidity, we see that there's quite a bit to seek, a lot of longs are also positioned at 171. Can it go and scrape above 211 here? Clearly, because 211 is around there. So you see, it has 1 billion dollars to go and get there. So it could miam miam miam miam miam all that. Will the market not be bullish until Friday? That Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, it rises, it eats everything to the north, it goes to seek the small high, and then well, on Friday, the inflation figures that continue to rise arrive, and well, after everyone has finished B, boom, it's C with the inflation figures. Same for our beloved Bitcoin, you see, it will rise, rise, rise, rise, and then boom, it's enough for the inflation figures because they seem to be bad. Well, and to finish XRP. Now, XRP has a big resistance here around 260, the 200-day moving average which unfortunately rejected last week, the 50-day moving average here at 282 is also strong resistance, and for now, you see the bulls are tiring. Well, the coming days could be not too bad. XRP, same thing, what would be good is for it to break its highs around 265. If it starts to do that, it would be rather good news. We would have a kind of small channel here which would be the big wave B. We will have a wave C perhaps in 2 weeks. But after that, it's boom, it starts again. There. So can it scrape above approximately 264? Well yes, 264 is there. There are about 250 million to go and get. That's all. So it can do miam miam miam miam miam to finish wave B, and wave C will take care of all that. Once eaten with B, and C against everyone, it starts again upwards. There. So that would be rather good news. Now, why am I talking about this? Because on Friday, we have the inflation figures coming out. They will be the most important figures of the week. And the entire market thinks that general inflation will rise to 3.1%. We would go from 2.9% to 3.1%. Knowing that core inflation, which is inflation excluding very volatile items like food and energy, is already above 3% and would be stagnant. So if we have this scenario of general inflation going above 3%, it could sting. Now, we could be positive. We could say, imagine that it drops to 3.1%, investors will say "No, it's okay, inflation has risen, but well, these are the figures we expected, so everything is fine," and then say anyway, last time we were talking, we were live, he clearly said that the only inflationary element is customs duties. If we remove customs duties, for him, there is nothing inflationary, and anyway, he is more concerned with trying to save jobs than inflation, so well, so you never know, but rising inflation, the markets will say "No, it's okay, we're at 3.1%, everything is fine." Well, but the markets might not like it. At some point, markets seeing inflation rise above 3% might not like it. Why, moreover? Because I don't really understand markets that are green when inflation rises. Why? Because Powell is throwing gasoline on the inflation. Because we are saying that Powell, the central bank, the Fed, is lowering rates to save jobs. But that's fuel for inflation. That's really fuel for inflation. Look, look, fuel. There. So we are saying that inflation will potentially rise further, it has been rising for several months, that rates will necessarily be lowered. We have no choice but to save jobs, and that makes inflation rise even more. But of course, they like it. No, no, there's no problem. We were told that inflation was transitory. Of course, like Christine Lagarde, who said inflation was transitory. It went to 5, plus 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, almost 11%, I think. She could be the first European president to have inflation over 10%. Inflation was supposed to be transitory. Well, inflation lasted for quite a few years. Well, so, we'll have to be careful on Friday. Now, for the moment, Wall Street is green, Europe too, everything is pushing. Everyone is happy today. Look, the S&P 500 is pushing, the Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too, the Euro Stoxx 600, European tech, everyone is pushing, everyone is happy. Now, it's a bit lighter for the Asian markets, but it's nice. Gold is pushing, silver is pushing. Now, the barrel is falling, that's good news, it should slightly decrease inflation, you see. Well, after that, our gas is exploding a bit. After that, well, it's a bit of geopolitics at the moment, and gas is at its best. Regarding crypto stocks, well Coinbase is green, Strategy too, Marathon Digital, all the miners are green. Well, given Bitcoin, it's rather green because trade tensions have decreased. It's simple, it's Trump and Powell, they are creating good weather on the markets. People are also buying a bit of US 10-year, US 20-year, US 30-year bonds. So people are buying a bit of everything today. And the dollar is slightly red. Well, so today, it's a rather green day. As long as we don't have a bearish catalyst, cryptos could continue to rise in the coming days. However, we need to be careful on Friday. Will Friday be a bearish catalyst and boom for the vaccine, or will we go and seek the lows? Because for now, the current structure tells us that we will retest the lows below 103,000, and so everyone risks taking a little hit, you see. So that's why you have to be careful. So to answer the question, Foufi, how is all this going down, is it bullish or bearish? Well, for the coming days, it can be bullish. However, when there will be, there will need to be the small bearish catalyst to validate the big wave C of the structure, unfortunately, to finish a beautiful structure. There. And then once the structure is finished, then it will be bullish for a long time. There, I send you kisses and we'll see each other tomorrow, bye bye. He. [Music]