Transcription
What do you think are most sort of entrepreneurs and VCs getting wrong about the future of AI?
Another great question. I think there are two fundamental strategies to build an AI startup right now. You either bet the technology is about as good as it's going to be, or you bet the technology is going to get massively better.
So, if you are building, say, an AI tutor company, to stick on an earlier example, you can build a system. As the base model gets smarter, very naturally, the level at which students can effectively learn just goes up and up.
So, you know, maybe it's only effective for sixth graders with the current version, but the next version is helpful for eighth graders, and then tenth graders, and then eventually PhD students. You can just like get to surf that wave.
Or you can say, I'm going to put all my effort into just barely making this work for eighth graders in the limited case of history, and do a huge amount of work to have a human in the loop and correct factual errors for this one class.
In the first world, you'll be really happy when GPT-5 comes out, and in the second world, you'll be really sad. My intuition would have been that 95% of entrepreneurs would have picked the first world.
It seems like 95% of entrepreneurs are picking the second world, and then you have this whole "OpenAI killed my startup" meme. But we try to say very loudly, like, we get up every morning trying to make the model much better.
If you're doing a little thing to get it to barely work in one specific case, that's probably a mistake.