Transcription
Hello everyone. Today, we are back for a new market recap video, quite simply what the price has in store for us for the coming weeks and months. To start, we remain on Bitcoin on the weekly chart. Still a structurally bullish trend, even if we would be more on a "one more low" bullish move with a low point here, a high point, a low point here, a high point. What we are currently in is a structure that remains bullish, a complex pullback between this low and this high. The best-case scenario would obviously be that we respect the lows. Furthermore, an excellent thing, we have finally gone to seek the FVG which was located at 98 and 95, which allowed the smart money to close its orders. We would go back to seek, it would be a respect of this low in the complex pullback of this bullish structure for a Wyckoff accumulation that would go to seek the all-time high levels and beyond. On the weekly level, we are hitting this previous Wyckoff accumulation and we are visibly, for now, protecting it. There are no major signs of a market reversal or the beginning of a bear market entry. For now, the accumulation zones are protected, and that is exactly what we are looking for.
To continue, it is important to mention that in my previous video, I had raised the idea that between 100k and 90k, there are clusters. When I say cluster, one must distinguish. After various research, we have identified certain consistencies related to IBL Capital. We realize more and more that the mentioned liquidity levels, the mentioned cluster levels, resemble past liquidities more than current liquidities. Let me explain. TradingView seems to calculate past liquidities and current liquidities and mix them more or less. And that is precisely what we observe because when we look at more up-to-date data regarding liquidity, leverage, and others, we clearly see that almost all longs have been cleared and only shorts remain to be sought. This is positive; when looking for an upward movement, it is important to clear the liquidity of the longs. These longs constitute sales. These sales constitute purchases by smart money. The sales of the dumb money constitute the purchases of smart money. It is very positive to observe that reaching price levels like this clears all long liquidity, strongly reinforcing the probabilities of a return to the upside and of reaching the various important levels where a lot of accumulated leverage is located, the short levels.
This is for the liquidation map over 30 days. We can say that TradingView lists more the battlefield, which is liquidity, meaning past liquidity mixed with current liquidity. That is why when we see levels like 95k, we realize that it's not really that there is liquidity at 95k per se. There is some, but it is very weak. It is rather that TradingView lists all the different levels where there has been in the past a conflict between buyers and sellers, massive orders, massive liquidations, large stop losses that were taken, and enormous volumes. We could say that TradingView is actually the mix of all this, listing them via the chart are these different levels. So TradingView is in the past, but also in the present, but TradingView is in the past.
At the level of CoinGlass, CoinGlass is in the present. It concretely tells us where the different liquidity levels are, the leverage, and whether there are more short sellers than long sellers. This is something TradingView does not do, and this is what raises this inconsistency with all these clusters here. Yet, we clearly observe that there is not much liquidity left.
We will move on to the Fear & Greed Index, and at the Fear & Greed Index level, we observe well that we have finally hit levels that historically allowed for a market reversal, which is very interesting because it is exactly what we are looking for for a resumption of a bullish rally. At the Fear & Greed Index level recently, we hit 15, 15 which is a historically very low level that allows for reversals. This fear will later allow for an euphoric parabola, obviously, because it goes without saying that if the market is a zero-sum game, smart money always positions itself when retail investors are fearful and always sells when retail investors are euphoric. The different indicators beyond the Fear & Greed Index demonstrate this to us. For example, we can look at these extreme greed levels, this one, this one, this one, this one, this one, and look at the direct behaviors of smart money on the chart. See their positioning.
To see their positioning, I leave you to contemplate and observe this chart which lists the positioning of smart money, its sell orders, its buy orders, or at least its actions. We observe that indeed, it always sells during a parabola, this one, this one, and even during previous cycles. We see well that market tops constitute the parabolas in which smart money de-risks itself gradually, something that has not happened here. There are degrees of selling, of taking profits, which resemble market retracements without necessarily entering a bear market. However, something positive, we observe that there is this major accumulation level which obviously is located here and will be protected, and we especially have this accumulation level and this accumulation level; these are the protected lows of the bullish trend, but especially this one which is more local. We see well that this level constituted a strong accumulation zone, and what we want to see is a price that protects it, that supports this accumulation, and that continues, or even a price that supports this accumulation zone for a restart of the bullish trend. We see that euphoria is not present, and that is something that reassures us because historically we have had a value day destroy, meaning a transfer of the oldest BTC to wallets possessing new BTC. We clearly observe that all this generally happened either very rarely, like here, in a mid-cycle top, or in market tops in parabolic phases, which has still not happened.
At the level of the active addresses, there is no peak in sight, so nothing to report. A low Fear & Greed Index, nothing special either. At the cost of return level, we still have these shorts that are being sold off little by little, slowly but surely. And at the level of supply and long-term holders, we still do not have a massive descent during an euphoric parabola that creates market tops. And at the level of long-term holders, we do not see massive sales like in previous cycles. We clearly see, of course, that smart money is very exposed, as I showed in the previous indicator here. Yes, it sells, it's true, it takes profits, it makes the market dump in the short term. But what is reassuring is that it is not a de-risking of this magnitude or this magnitude, and this is exactly what we want to see on the chart. In the short term, we have a supply that has increased, we see profit-taking, we see that smart money is dumping the market currently. It's true, totally agree, there's no problem with that. However, we do not see massive profit-taking, we do not see a global de-risking as we have at the end of bullish markets.
So here, there was this accumulation. This accumulation has not been significantly sold off. The entirety demonstrates this, this chart demonstrates this, and the transfers of old BTC to new wallets have not faltered yet.
To complete the psychological analysis and to show how much retail investors are down, we have this very interesting indicator from CryptoQuant, the open interest, and how much dumb money is currently exposed versus the massive liquidations that smart money is making. What we see is that when there is deleveraging, meaning that open interest drops, and that globally there is a deleveraging of the market, meaning that people stop using leverage because of the various liquidations and that no one is exposing themselves anymore, this systematically marks local bottoms. When dumb money explodes massively, we clearly see that the blue lines systematically mark market tops. And what we see here is that there is especially deleveraging. People are stopping taking risks, people are getting scared. This is exactly what we want to see on the chart. It's an interesting indicator that works well at market bottoms. We see that medium-term holders, meaning small whales, awakened investors, but I wouldn't say smart money, are starting to buy back Bitcoin and stop dumping the market. And this is something reassuring in the short term.
To finish, it is important to look at the fractal nature of macroeconomics. What we see is clear. The scenario unfolding before us is a Fed that wants to lower its interest rates over time. And we clearly see that the probabilities are leaning towards an interest rate cut. Currently, Jerome Powell has a very hawkish discourse, this impacts the markets and cryptocurrencies. However, a macro video will be released soon that will demonstrate how Jerome Powell can no longer afford to do as he pleases and that we are close to a transition towards quantitative easing. Currently, the probabilities are strengthening that rates will not move, and when we look at long-term probabilities, we clearly see that over time the Fed will adopt a dovish approach and this dovish approach will transition towards quantitative easing, which will benefit risk assets. We clearly see that historically, during quantitative easing phases, bond yields fall, and we have a debt as a percentage of GDP that is enormous, and this debt must be refinanced to lower this percentage of public debt relative to GDP. What would be interesting is during quantitative easing to make bond yields fall. These falling bond yields would allow America to refinance its debt and roll it over more effectively with low yields, and these low yields would make the debt much easier to roll over in the long term because high rates mean a complex debt to repay, whereas a bond that is expensive in the short term is certainly worth its price, but however, this debt has a low yield, and this low yield is exactly what America is looking for to refinance its debt. An America that refinances its debt is an America that will buy back T-bills and long-term bonds at their current price at different maturities. It will buy back these bonds from banks. Banks, which after having all this liquidity, will pour it onto risk markets, meaning Bitcoin, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and so on and so forth.
To summarize, we are still protecting these major accumulation zones which constitute important purchases by smart money in a low Fear & Greed Index. This is exactly what we are looking for because it is historically in extreme fear zones that market bottoms are formed. Furthermore, this trendline, which constitutes liquidity, should be taken soon, and it is in progress. We have a macro and a structurally dovish trend close to quantitative easing, despite the hawkish approach that the Fed adopts to not excite the markets. We have on-chain data that shows us that euphoria is not present and that we do not have excessive de-risking by smart money. They are still very exposed. I maintain this thesis; we do not have global de-risking. We do not have profit-taking that would indicate a market top as we have structurally had in the past. This was Andra. Thank you for listening. Take care of yourselves. See you soon.