Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, as it continues to sit just above the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.
So, we are at least one week through the month of September, and Bitcoin so far has held the bull market support band. This window of weakness will likely persist, uh, basically through the end of the month, essentially. Now, this has some similarities to prior cycles in the low that is normally found in the month of September. And right now, we're just trying to assess what, what are the odds that the low for the month of September happened on the very first day of September? Because you can actually see on the first day of September, the price wicked lower than it had been for all of August, right? So technically speaking, the assessment of finding a high in August and a low in September could have already theoretically played out.
With that said, it, you know, some caution is warranted in putting too much faith in that idea, just because one could argue that that window of weakness for Bitcoin could persist, uh, a little bit longer. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go up in September. It certainly could. Just like how a high was formed in August, right? Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in August, and then the month was red. You can have a low form in September, and then the month still be green. Who really knows, right, how it's going to ultimately play out.
There's some months where Bitcoin in 2021, of the post-halving year, sometimes like in 2017, it's just a wick down, and then we consolidate for a week, and then we just go right back up. Uh, and and by the end of September, we could be back near all-time highs. If it were to play out like 2017, if it were to play out like 2021, we could, you know, maybe this first week here is that first tag of the, of the, the bull market rip end, and then perhaps you wick below it for a couple of weeks before then going back up, right? There's no clear-cut answer.
If you look at 2020, which there are some similarities for in the sense that you had a low in around Q1, um, same idea, right? And then you, you go up and then sideways, right? Up and then sideways. And then before you tag the 20-week SMA, you actually go up again, up again, and then sideways, and then back down to that bull market. So it's almost a carbon copy, right, of, of what we saw back then. So, but in that case, back then, when, when Bitcoin did that, what essentially happened is it hugged that 20-week SMA for basically the entirety of the month. Um, I even distinctly remember back then in September, and and maybe some of you guys who have been following me for a long time remember. I remember making videos back then in September, I'm basically just saying, "Look, if we can hold this low in September, we're likely going to get a, a big rally," and and we did. Um, so for now, I, I would say that the window to hold it, right, like we're, we're going through a process right now where Bitcoin needs to try to hold it as support.
I think the major headwinds for Bitcoin right now are the, and again, I could be wrong, but the major headwinds right now for Bitcoin is not really necessarily Bitcoin-related. It's more so, I just think a lot of the altcoins need to go through their corrections to the 20-week SMA, right? Like, so Bitcoin is already there. Arguably, Ethereum needs to go there, right? And in order for Ethereum to go there, it, it likely means that Bitcoin's upside in the short term is going to be somewhat limited, just because I, I would expect by the end of the month or early October for Ethereum to be sitting back at its 21-week EMA. Um, some altcoins are already getting the move to the, to the bull market and right. Like if you look at, if you look at Total 3, it's not really that far away from it, right? It's only about what, six, seven, eight, I guess about 8% from the 21-week EMA and about 10% from the 20-week SMA. It's not that far, right? And and to me, it would make sense for, for this stuff to kind of check back in with it late September, um, before hopefully getting another push up. Um, Total 2, right, still has a little bit of ways to go there in order to get back to that 21-week EMA, which again, I do think we will eventually test. And so with that idea in mind, and by the way, some altcoins have already tested the, uh, the 20-week SMA. Um, I'm not exactly sure which ones. You can see Avalanche is already at the 20-week SMA. XRP is got really close to it, right at the 21-week EMA. Um, Litecoin getting pretty close to it. Link still a little bit of ways to go. Uh, but overall, you can see that some coins are already making that move, and and some of the other ones are are kind of biting their time. By late September, I have a feeling many of them will tag it. And it could just simply be that, you know, Bitcoin doing something like that each week. Maybe another coin goes to the bull market while Bitcoin tries to hold. You know, something like that could happen. We actually saw, uh, one of the coins that just tagged the 20-week SMA, I believe, was Tron, which that we don't really talk about that much on here, but it is important to recognize how, you know, some people, some people were saying, "Well, Ben, you know, how could Ethereum go to the 21-week EMA if Bitcoin, if Bitcoin's downside isn't that much further?" Well, I mean, look at this, right? It didn't stop this altcoin from going all the way down to the 21-week EMA, 20-week SMA, even though Bitcoin went sideways.
The other thing to remember too, is that while it would be the best-case scenario if Bitcoin can hold at the bull market support band, that's what I hope for. That's probably what you hope for. If it doesn't hold, it still doesn't necessarily mean that things are over. We've had a few scares before this cycle where Bitcoin went down below the bull market and then it tagged the 50-week moving average, right? And so you could have a scenario where it tags the 50-week and the, the bull market still not be over, right? There's, there's a, a path for that to theoretically happen. Now, ideally, it doesn't come to that. Ideally, Bitcoin can just hold this, and we'll take it one week at a time. I mean, I remember 2020 was grueling because it was like, all right, one week at a time, one week at a time. And back then, we held. Will we hold this time? We'll see. One week at a time.
The point is, is you're probably better off with Bitcoin right now than any altcoin for the most part, except for your altcoin, of course. And I know a lot of people are bare posting about dominance right now. But here's the reality. If dominance is bearish here, if I'm wrong and dominance is dropping from here, then it likely means the cycle's already over. So, I think it makes more sense to to be bullish on dominance, not just so that the cycle could continue, but mainly because in September and October, dominance normally pivots back the other direction. So, you know, you're starting to see a slow move, but I'm hoping to see it accelerate as the weeks go on in the month of of September.
So, for now, Bitcoin is still above its 20-week moving average. Uh, this week, the 20-week SMA is at around 110K. The 21-week EMA is around 108. If Bitcoin at any point in the month of September gives this up, then the main area of support is that 50-week SMA, which is at almost 97K. Last week it was like 96K, now it's almost 97K. It's moving up quickly. Okay. So keep an eye on it. The only reason I say this is is the 50-week, whether it becomes important in September is irrelevant for the fact that it will become very important within the next like 6 months. And the reason I say that is because normally Bitcoin bull markets end at the end of post-halving years. Okay? The end of 2013, the end of 2017, and then the end of 2021. So normally the Bitcoin bull market ends at the end of the post-halving year. And the confirmation that it's over is a couple of weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, right? When you get a couple of weekly closes below that 50-week SMA, historically it means the cycle's over. So whether the 50-week SMA comes into play in September or not, doesn't necessarily negate the importance of the 50-week. It just means that the 50-week SMA will come in, you know, come into play in a few more months, and that'll be the line in the sand. If we close below it on a couple of weekly closes, then we, you know, we, we go play chess, uh, for, for 2026, and then we do this all over again next cycle. Um, but what I'm doing right now is I'm sort of focused in on Bitcoin and and and watching for dominance to go higher because if dominance goes higher, remember, Bitcoin leads the bull market. And it doesn't matter if dominance goes higher on a rally or a dump or Bitcoin going sideways. If you want to see the cycle continue, Bitcoin dominance should start going up. If I'm wrong and dominance starts going down, then we're further along in the cycle than I think, and and it would be time to pivot. But for now, I think the base case is that dominance goes up, and and liquidity starts going back into the king, and and we'll just see where we end up by the end of the month. But I do expect a low to form sometime in the months of September. The high was in August. The low should be in September. Hopefully, it was on September 1st. If not, uh, we'll see where it comes in a little bit later this month. But that's what I'm looking at.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.