Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are full of energy, very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, October 19, 2025, in front of a completely green crypto market, which is pleasing, and it's Sunday, and like every Sunday, tonight a little crazy live stream from 9 PM to 10 PM. Don't hesitate to come, it will be a special birthday live stream for Foufi. I'm also bringing a few gifts, I think they will please you, to reward you who follow and support me. So don't hesitate to come from 9 PM to 10 PM. In front of us, a completely green crypto market for 24 hours, Bitcoin and altcoins have pushed. On the right here is the map for the week. So, Bitcoin is correcting. Altcoins are in the green. Now, it's a green that is pleasing, but it's green because altcoins took a hit last Friday, October 10th, with the nuclear candle that really created a bear market in one hour, you see. And since they were well bought back, well recovered, we see green, but it's still not top-notch. We see that the market has put a little pressure on the extreme fear red. Remember, the extreme fear here was when we found a market bottom between March and April. Market bottoms take time. Okay. I know some people have trouble with timeframes, and it's especially the new ones because when I show an analysis that says, "Be careful, this is going to correct, it's not good," and then in a news video, I show news that says it's going to explode, it's going to be great. Some people say, "But they're young, they don't know, I don't blame them. Foufi, yesterday you said it's going down, today you say it's going to explode, it's nonsense and all." Well, calm down. It's just that you haven't understood anything, but it's okay, okay? It's just that we don't forget timeframes. A market can correct for several days, several weeks, but be totally bullish for the medium to long term. That is to say, you can crash to the ground for several weeks, but in 3 months, 4 months, you'll be in "You're going to the moon" mode. Be careful, don't forget that when we talk about correction or rise, we need to say on what timeframe. If we look at Bitcoin on one minute, well, on one minute, I'll tell you it's to the moon, it's going to the moon. Three minutes and the fifth minute, it's going down. So, you have to differentiate timeframes well. That's why the morning news, for example, this morning, I'll show a news video, go watch it, it's very interesting, it compares gold to Bitcoin. When gold finds its market bottom, it will be an explosion of Bitcoin in "to the moon" mode. That's what it's been doing for 10 years in the past. You'll see, they are superb charts. You'll see them in this morning's video. And on top of that, there are small crises in certain banks. There is tension on the banks, some regional banks, and the last time this happened, Bitcoin started to correct like everyone else. Then, there were big liquidity injections to support the banks, and then bam. So, we can crash to the ground for a few weeks, even a month, even 2 months. There are quite a few planets aligning that Bitcoin in 5 or 6 months or in 4 months will be very, very high, I think. Well, we'll see all that. So, here, in front of us, altcoins on the weekly. So, last week was catastrophic because, well, with Black Friday, it put a monumental cartridge in. The weekly is still nice because look, whether it was last week or this week, it closed above a support trio. The Kijun, which averages the last 9 and 26 weeks for altcoins, and the 50-day moving average, one of the most important in my eyes, which is the average price of altcoins over the last 50 weeks, around 72 billion dollars. So, we understand well that as long as we hold this 50-day moving average, which you see here on the right, we can hope for altcoins to recover and go higher than the previous all-time high, if you will. Now, all it takes is a red candle breaking the 50-day moving average with the body of the candle. You see the candle breaking here. And it's off. The deep hells of damnation. We don't forget that the structure for months and months, for years. Well, it tells us, "I have wave A, I have the end of wave A at my 1200. We zigzag, we zigzag on B. After A, after B, what's next?" Well, there's the letter C because the letter C, boom, it's the last wave. Okay? So, it's the wave that drops the most, the wave that hurts the most. But it's the last wave because after that, when you validate your structure, it explodes upwards to recover. And the question we're asking ourselves is, did last week trigger wave C? And I want to tell you, it's very possible that last week triggered wave C because last week's wick exploded the previous low here, the previous low there, the previous low there. So, yes, nothing is certain. Okay? We can't say, "Yes, it's good, wave C is starting now." We've done A, we've finished B, now boom, C starts, heading for a bear market because that would mean that altcoins here on average will lose at least 30%. Well, so it's going to hurt, you see. So, we can't say for sure that wave C is starting, but in any case, there are strong probabilities that C is here, given what we have. On top of that, we have a bearish crossover on the MACD on the weekly. That means the bears have regained momentum, on the weekly. So, this can last for several weeks. If it closes like this tonight, we repeat the 52 RSI. So, between breaking the 50 RSI, between the bears regaining momentum here, between the big wick that exploded the previous lows, it smells like wave C. But there's one last interesting and important thing missing before we say wave C is starting, it's breaking the 50-day moving average. If we have a candle with the body of the candle breaking the 50-day moving average, it will really increase the probabilities of this wave C even more. You see, it would also be a bit surprising if altcoins went up when there was a wick here that broke everything. So, it's true that it doesn't look very, very bullish for the end of October, for maybe November, but we don't forget that bull runs have started in the winter in December. Okay? So, don't cry, don't say, "Oh my God, it's over after A, after B, and if it is indeed wave C that starts, then it will be an explosion afterwards because the structure will be complete." Well, we'll also look at this with Bitcoin on the daily. Well, for now, it's okay. A little green weekend, it's holding the 200-day moving average. As long as it holds, it can try for a few days to make a small rise. That's the idea. After that, you'll tell me, "But you're talking nonsense." You say the daily can try to make a small rise to reach the 50-day moving average, and the weekly can crash. But yes, but the daily, well, you can go up, you can go up Monday, Tuesday, reach your 50-day moving average, and then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, you crash to the ground, and then finally, well, you break the 50-day moving average, and you can even have a green week, two green weeks before crashing lower, you see. You have to be careful, you have to differentiate timeframes. You can have a horrible week with a great Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and then Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, you crash to the ground, you see. So, you have to differentiate timeframes well. You have the daily, the weekly, you even have the monthly, things like that. Well, we'll do the monthly at the end of the month. So, for now, daily, well, it's the weekend, there's low volume, there's low momentum, but we'll keep in mind, we'll be careful if altcoins continue to draw an upward channel like this, boom, it will be the descent. So, here, it's not very, very pretty as a structure, actually, our beloved Bitcoin. Well, it's the same structure. Everyone appears. Wave A here, the correction from December to April approximately, wave B which zigzags. The question we're asking is, is this the start of wave C? Is it now that we're going to start this wave that will go to this gap at 92? The billion-dollar question. Well, or a million, or a dollar. Well, the thing is, since Bitcoin broke previous lows, so it broke the previous lows here from September and it broke the candle again, it increases your probabilities of a wave C. A probability. You can never say, "Yes, it's certain, wave C is here." Well, in that case, it's certain, well, we sell everything, I'm going lower. Never certain. Okay. It's a matter of probabilities that increase, of lights that turn on more and more. So, here, the lights of wave C are on, it's like for altcoins, it's breaking lows. These are red lights rather for wave C. It's the fact that the bears have momentum here on the weekly. So, there you go, and it's the fact that here, well, the 50 RSI, well, if it closes like this tonight, they will be broken too. So, these are several red lights, not very pretty, but in my eyes, the most important red light is missing, which would tell us, "Ah, wave C, there was a very high probability that it would start," you see, it would be breaking the 50-day moving average of Bitcoin, just like for altcoins. The 50-day moving average of altcoins. Here, if we break it, well, then wave C starts, and here, it's the same for Bitcoin. The 50 weekly is at 101,700. So, it's simple, a red candle breaking 101,700. You're off for wave C. Wave C could find its bottom between approximately 85,000 dollars and 94,500 dollars. But since there's the gap, I'd say between 85 and 92, you see. Well, so, there you go. So, for now, as with altcoins, as long as we don't break the 50-day weekly moving average, which is the average price of Bitcoin over the last 50 weeks, around 100,700-800, it's fine. If we break it, it will be the death, quite simply. Now, can wave B continue here? Can Bitcoin go back for a record? Yes, clearly wave B could continue zigzagging, zigzagging, zigzagging, Bitcoin could seek a new all-time high at 130,000. It's just that right now, the atmosphere, well, it's not the most beautiful atmosphere in the world. Knowing that we don't forget that when Bitcoin made its new record at 126,000, your beloved Foufinou said, because it's technical analysis, "We have a lot of bearish divergences." That's why I bam bam bam took profits to fill my big bag of stablecoins. Did I listen to the bearish divergences on your weekly? Well, it didn't fail. Does the bearish divergence suffice to deflate it now, is it going up again? The problem is that the bears are there, the problem is that the bears have momentum, they're not letting go on the daily. Well, today, it's recovering its 200-day moving average, Bitcoin at around 107,600. That's good news. The bears are getting a bit tired, but it's Saturday, Sunday, it doesn't count much. We'll have to see what it offers us, of course, from tomorrow with the opening of Wall Street. Here we have a small A, a small B, a small C. Very good. So, be careful because if our little beloved Bitcoin does this little upward channel well, boom, it will be a continuation. If we see, as long as we see a small upward channel, it will unfortunately continue to descend. In terms of long-term liquidations, these are accumulated liquidations over the last 30 days. We see that there's food up to around 100,000. There's not much, there's about, let's say, 100 billion, 5 billion dollars to eat at 100,000, the biggest part. And of course, to the north, if Bitcoin comes back to, say, 126,600 dollars, it eats up 13 billion dollars. But if on Monday it doesn't look good because Trump, blah blah blah with China, because Putin, blah blah blah with Ukraine, because Israel, blah blah blah with these other countries, because commercial banks, blah blah blah, tension. Well, you understand, if the atmosphere isn't good, because geopolitics and macroeconomics aren't good, well, the markets will correct, you see. Well, so, we'll be watching the news closely. Let's go to Ethereum now. So, unfortunately, Ethereum has lost its Ichimoku cloud here at 4217, which is taken over the last 9 weeks. That's not great. Its next support for Ethereum is its Kijun here at 3243. That's the weekly. Knowing that there's a bearish crossover that arrived this week on the MACD. So, that's not good. There was also the rejection of Ethereum in the overbought zone with a divergence on the RSI on the weekly. So, I warned you, and that week, I remember that Foufi was saying nonsense, that he wasn't happy, but in finance, you have to stop being happy or unhappy. In finance, you have to think like robots. Okay. Ethereum, there's the worst red button that lights up, it's the bearish divergences on the RSI in the overbought zone. These are the worst red buttons. I warned you all about this. Many people were not happy. The intelligent, smart people who didn't have emotions said, "Ah, they don't listen to me, they listen to the analysis. The analysis says bearish divergence in the middle of the overbought zone." That always hurts. Clearly, those who were smart, well, they took profits here on Ethereum at 4950. Those who didn't believe, in the "nonsense" mode, "Ethereum is going to the moon," I saw a lot of charts saying Ethereum is going to 10,000 because Ethereum quickly pushed between 2002 and almost 5000. Well, there you go. So, be part of the calm, serious people who think, who look at the analysis, and not those who look at the one who said, "Yeah, it's going to the moon because he drew a line, and the line goes to 10,000." No, that's not analysis, that's nothing, that's crap, that's just faith, that's faith. And if you don't have faith, if there's no faith, the only region is the Bitcoin region. Okay? You have the right to pray to Bitcoin. Besides, I have an altar to the god Bitcoin, and every Sunday, I open the altar, I go to Bitcoin mass, I make an offering to the god Bitcoin, he gives me satoshis. So, that's pretty cool. Well, and so, the bearish divergence in the middle of the overbought zone on the RSI. Well, I want to say, those who were there, who saw the video for 2 weeks, I said it, and did nothing, well, too bad for you. Next time, well, listen to the analysis, not me, listen to the analysis. Well, so, Ethereum has lost, it doesn't smell rosy. Bearish crossover on the MACD, not rosy. Next support is there, it's far away at 3243, it doesn't smell rosy either, and the 50-day moving average is here at 3100, it doesn't smell rosy either. So, Ethereum here on the weekly, it's hard to see it going up, you see. It's like I told you, the bearish divergence on the RSI in the overbought zone, it was hard to see it continue to rise, and now I'm telling you, well, it's hard, there's nothing that says Ethereum to the moon, you see, it's rather a warning that the next supports are there. There's a gap at 2853, so will this call it? It remains possible. Now, on the daily, well, nothing happened this weekend. Well, I'll go through it quickly. Same structure as Bitcoin. Be careful with this little channel, which has a slightly higher probability of breaking downwards. On this little Ethereum. And in terms of liquidations, it's the only positive thing, there's not much left. So, Ethereum going to 32, for example, to reach its 50-day moving average around 3133. Well, there's not too much liquidity, but it can still fall to cause capitulation. There's about 3 billion to the north, there's rather 6 billion around 400. But for now, the analysis isn't very, very pretty. Regarding Solana, so Solana, similarly, everything hinges, like everyone else, on its 50-day weekly moving average, which is back again, you see, like Bitcoin, at 183 dollars. Now, Solana didn't have the big, gigantic nuclear candle. Okay. Well, Solana made its wave A on the weekly, we're talking very long term here. Wave B zigzags. Well, listen, wave C, there's nothing telling us that wave C is underway. Okay, because Solana didn't take a big hit. If Solana breaks with a red candle, its 50-day moving average, it will start to flash. Paf, big red button, beware of wave C. Now, can we say it could start? There aren't many signs, you see, because Solana held its Kijun. First support held, its 50-day moving average is there. So, two supports are holding this week, rather well. It didn't break its 52 RSI, that's rather good. The bearish crossover could arrive soon. So, this is really the little negative thing, be careful with the MACD. That is to say, the bulls are starting to get tired. The bears are starting to take back control, you see. So, that's why you shouldn't be surprised if the big wave C weekly is carnage, because it's something that lasts. Well, look at wave A, for example, on Solana, wave A lasted, let's say, up to here, wave A lasted 84 days, almost 3 months. Wave C could last, well, between 2 and 3 months, you see. So, it could, it means it has already started. It means if we count, say, 3 months, it has already started. It's been a month, there would be 2 months left, so around mid-December, after Christmas, boom, to the moon. There have been bull runs that started after Christmas, they started in December, you see. Well, so, I'm not saying here that wave C, the structure doesn't say that wave C. Major confirmations are still missing. Just here, the fact that the bulls are starting to get tired on the weekly. Be careful, so it's simple. Next week, a red candle breaking the Kijun and the 50-day moving average, boom, we can start putting on layers and heading for the gap here, I think, at least the gap at 121. Theoretically, it's to go below the 100-day moving average, so below 100 dollars. For now, the daily, a little quiet weekend. Nothing special. We see that we have a small upward channel. If it continues to just zigzag in this channel, be careful, we have the little descent. In terms of liquidity on Solana, there's enough to go up to 168, but the biggest part is to the north. So, you see, for now, there's no crash. Anyway, declines are never direct. Declines, if it starts, for example, to crash, it's a fall to eat all of this. Then, I go up for a week or two, just to say it's the bottom. Everything accumulates, accumulates even more at the bottom. Then, boom, I hit it again at the bottom. Then, I go up, I let it accumulate a bit. So, it's tricky. Well, let's go, XRP. So, XRP, we can see that it smells less rosy. A few more red lights have lit up. Breaking the Kijun at 245. Boom! Red light lit up, you see the light of Pep Pep P. There you go. Breaking the 50-day moving average at 242. If it closes below tonight, a big alarm, boom boom, lights up, you see. Breaking the 50 RSI. Oh my god! A big alarm lights up. The bears have crossed, the bearish crossover arrived several weeks ago. The bears are pushing, there's momentum, big alarm again. We're good here. Here, we're good here, XRP, in terms of alarms lighting up. We're doing well. So, does XRP smell bad? Well, the problem is that with all these red alarms, it's hard to say that XRP is okay, you see. Well, so, what will be the biggest alarm is the 50-day moving average. Closures below it, and if it can't get back above it next week at 241, then it's very possible that XRP will do wave C, and with the wick here, which has been rejected on the 200-day weekly moving average at around 1 dollar. Ah, it's ugly for now. You see that there are only red lights. Can XRP explode to the moon? If something happens, if Trump comes out and says, "Okay, from today, we're buying Bitcoin, XRP." Well, of course, it's off to the moon, but if there's no news, no completely pharaonic catalyst, it doesn't look very good for XRP. For now, on the daily, nothing special. Saturday, Sunday, it's slightly going up. The only positive aspect for XRP is that it has touched its oversold zone. So, it could go up for a few days, for example, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, to reach its 200-day moving average at 2.58. But if the 200-day moving average rejects it, so you see, it can go up, up Monday, Tuesday, and then the rest of the week, it can fall. So, be careful. And here again, as long as it stays in a small A, small B, small bearish channel, an upward channel, it's rather bearish. Be careful of this gap at 213, which it hasn't gone to. It's very close to this gap. And to finish, in terms of liquidations, XRP has enough to eat up to 2 dollars. There's about a little over 200 million. There are 250 million around 2.something. So, there's a bit more to the north, but to the south, there's quite a bit. So, there you go. So, unfortunately, it doesn't smell very rosy, clearly, we have to say it. The only positive aspect is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not telling us that wave C has started, even if the probabilities have increased with the breaking of the 52 RSI, the bears being there, and the wick that broke the lows. But to really say it doesn't look good, you have to break this 50-day moving average at 100,700. If there's a break, well, personally, what do I think? Well, if there's a break of the 100,700 50-day moving average, so a weekly candle, I'm not talking about a wick, I'm talking about a Sunday evening, we have a candle like this, there, that broke the 50-day moving average, then we'll put on layers because this 50-day moving average was not broken during the big correction here in April, it was not broken during the big, big 9-month correction here when we were in 2024. So, you understand well that if now it's broken, then we'll have to put on layers, buy tissues, and because we're going to poop ourselves, we're going to cry. So, the 50-day moving average is really the word to keep in mind, and as long as it's not broken, it's okay. The day it's broken, it's not okay at all. We'll meet later on the live stream to talk about all this if you want. I'm sending kisses. See you later. Bye bye. [Music]