Transcription
Well, after one year's delay, Beijing has finally announced its long anticipated fourth plenum. It will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd, less than 3 weeks from now.
The question on everyone's mind: does this mean Xiinping is just weeks away from stepping down? Um, so people generally come up with four possible scenarios. The first, Xiinping neither gives up power nor position. Um, but that looks unlikely because he has already stepped back in practice.
So the second scenario is Xiinping gives up both power and position. That's the opposite of the first scenario, meaning that he will step down entirely in 3 weeks. That also seems improbable. The anti-shi camp hasn't decisively crushed him.
So that leaves two middle paths, both moving him to the second line. The first one is called relinquish power but not position. And the other scenario is relinquish position but not power. That would mean giving up one or two titles, uh, while still pulling the strings from behind the curtain.
Now, of these, I think the most likely scenario is a hybrid. That is, he relinquishes power and most of his most of his jobs or titles, but keeps one position for face-saving. The likeliest outcome is that he gives up the general secretary position and the chairman chairmanship of the CMC, stepping back from real power, but holds on to the presidency as a ceremonial role until either the two sessions in 2026 or the 21st party congress in 2027.
In other words, the fourth planet will start transition she's power to the next team, and Beijing is already signaling a power shift and hinting at who the next leader will be. That brings us to Li Chan's recent trip to New York. The Wall Street Journal reported that while attending the UN assembly, the premier held closed-door meetings with American business leaders and scholars, um, such as people from the US China Business Council, the National Committee on US China relations, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Council on Foreign Relations, and many top executives.
And in his talk, Lee compared US China relations to a marriage, saying couples may quarrel, even fight, but still maintain a close bond because they need each other. The journal interpreted this as a signal of Beijing's desire for stability at a time when Trump and she had just spoken by phone. That's the standard read. Most people read it like that. But they missed something huge: a political signal hiding in plain sight. I don't know if the reporters or the editors working at the journal didn't see it, or if they simply chose not to tell us, but it's very obvious.
So, to understand that, you need two pieces of background. Okay? First, Letown is China's number two guy, the head of government. Second only to Shei, who leads the party. This was his first trip to the US as premier. And in nearly a decade, he's the first Chinese premier to visit. So for him to speak so directly to American business and policy elites, even in a closed-door setting, means he was not freelancing or improvising. He was voicing an official high-level position.
Second, the US China marriage metaphor was not Lie Chang's invention. It was this guy's, Wong Yang. Uh, there's a whole story behind this expression. Back in July 2013, during the fifth Sino US strategic and economic dialogue in Washington, Wong Yang, then vice premier in charge of US China relations, used it. Xiinping had just taken power, and one was making his uh debut in that role as vice premier in charge of US China relations. His counterpart was Treasury Secretary at the time, Jacob Louu, who was also new to his post.
So one one young joked that since they were both newcomers, they were like newlyweds. You know, the the the Chinese expression newcomers shin also could mean newlyweds. So that's where the joke or the the metaphor came from. And Wyang even poked fun at Rubert Murdoch's messy divorce from Wendy Dung, saying that the US China couldn't afford a divorce like that. So, it was completely off the cuff, but it landed well. The American delegation laughed. Major outlets like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters described it as colorful and vivid. Even Chinese state media joined it at first. People's Dy's English edition said one's metaphor reflected the two countries' inseparable economic partnership, praising his wit and humor.
But the praise didn't last long. Soon after he returned to China, one was heavily criticized inside the party. Hardliners said the couple metaphor demeaned China, made it sound like a housewife dependent on the US, and undermined national dignity. And online Chinese nationalists accused one of graveling. Right? So America is the husband, and we're the wife. So under pressure, one dropped the metaphor entirely. He never mentioned it again. So from then on, it became his personal scarlet letter, a sensitive tag no one else dared to touch, especially after Xiinping launched a wolf warrior diplomacy and pushed the slogan of east rising, west declining.
Fast forward to now, to 2025. Liang suddenly mentioned resurrected that phrase. That's extraordinary. There's no way he did it on his own. But do you think Xiinping authorized him to do that? Never. Not only because it's one young line, uh, but because one is considered one of Xiinping's biggest political rivals. So why would Xiinping put his rivals' label on his own forehead? That's impossible.
So that leaves one explanation. The signal didn't come from she. It came from those outside him or above him. Most likely from the decision-making and coordination body. Remember there was an announcement uh coming out a few months ago announcing this decision-making body made up of party elders. So multiple leaks suggest Wing Jaba is the group's head, and Wyang serving as the executive deputy.
So what Lie Chang did in New York was essentially deliver Wang's message by reviving one's US China marriage or couple metaphor before America's top elites. He was telling Washington, "Wang is back. He is the one shaping US China relations now, or maybe going forward, and not Xiinping." And the fact that Li Chang, the sitting premier, followed this instruction shows just how much sway the party elders camp currently has over the political landscape.
Put simply, the premier's remark confirms many leaks and whispers that Wyang is poised to replace Xiinping as interim party leader until the 21st Congress. Okay, not as the permanent one, but the interim party leader until 2027, October 2027. Another commentator also claimed that Xiinping's downfall at the fourth platinum has already been verbally notified to the hundreds of central committee members who are the highest-ranking CCP officials. And reportedly Huin suggested that the reshuffle was unavoidable, but all positions would only be interim until the 21st party congress.
All four major factions apparently agreed that Wanga is the safest interim candidate. Uh, nobody sees him as a threat. The the four factions are the Xiinping faction, uh, the Huin faction, the princling faction, and then the possibly the Jenzaming faction. So he's most likely the next uh party leader, while Huang Hua is most likely to take Li Chang's place as the next premere, also as interim. And this confirms our previous predictions. I've I've said this many times that Wyanga and Hua will be the next leadership duo.
So three weeks, that's all that separates us from knowing CCP's next step, from knowing Xiinping's future, and possibly the end of his rule. The clock is ticking, and once October begins, every day could bring a new twist.