Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, a classic case of the bare market blues. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. The sale will be ending at the end of the year, so if you do want to lock in the lower rate, make sure you do so before then.
I think what we have here is a classic case of the bare market blues. The bare market blues is something that we've talked about before. We did videos on it multiple times throughout 2022. And it's one of those times where apathy really starts to set in. We start to, you know, more and more people start to accept, uh, the idea of a bare market, and it's difficult because deep down, we all know that midterm years tend to be bare market years as well. And so, you know, I, I think going into it, it's just sort of thinking like, well, if this does take a year like normal, then why would we expect anything different until October of 2026? But again, there is some evidence to suggest it might not take quite that long. Um, especially if you go through the bare markets that started on apathy rather than euphoria.
One of the things that I think is up for consideration here and why it feels so different. Well, first of all, you know, there hasn't been an alt season, right? And and we were very careful about that the entire cycle about, you know, why it was not expected at at those points. And it just never, like, the the conditions never really manifested themselves for it. It doesn't mean it won't ever happen, but it's not something to look at in the short term. Um, one of the things that I, I think we have to be aware of is, you know, in late 2021, early 2022. Um, I think one of the reasons it feels so much different now than back then is that every, for the most part, like everyone in crypto now was probably in it back then as well. For the most part. Obviously, there's some new people that maybe bought the ETFs, but for the most part, a lot of the people in it today were also in Bitcoin back in 2022. And so, a lot of times the people that are most vocal about it not being a bare market are the people that are new that come into the cryptoverse during an alt season, right? During a period where Bitcoin dominance is crashing while alts go to the moon, right? And you can see that happened a couple of times, right? 2017 and then, of course, 2021, right? And and that hasn't happened this cycle. So because of that, I, I think there's a lot of people that are not as vocal about it needing to continue because a lot of people here also saw what happened in 2022. So we're not like under the illusion that it can't be a bare market, right? Like we, we lived through that, so we know that it could be.
But again, markets will always throw us curveballs. And as I've said before, I do think it would be a mistake to only look at the current theoretical bare market through the lens of the four-year cycle. I think the four-year cycle takes precedent. I think that we defer to the four-year cycle until proven otherwise. I think, you know, every prior bare market lasted about one year. So, we have to go into this assuming that it might last a year. But I also know that when we have a classic case of the bare market blues, um, you know, a lot of times we, we might be further along than we think. And that might might kind of sound weird, but I, I think by the time, you know, a lot of people start to accept it, um, you're you're probably further along in the bare market in time, uh, than we think.
And one of the things I wanted to to at least remind people of is when you look at the current hypothetical bare market through the lens of the 2019, uh, which is kind of where I think it makes the most amount of sense to look like. I think that it is a great coincidence that this again, it's happening at the four-year cycle top. But you have to defer to it. Like we can't pretend like it's different just because it just was a great coincidence that it happened to line up. We know though that in 2019, Bitcoin topped right before quantitative tightening ended, right? Like, I mean, we all remember that, and you know, it just happens to be that Bitcoin is topping right before QT ends again. So, it's it's fascinating how QT is ending in Q4 of the post-halving year, which is always when Bitcoin has historically topped out at the end of a four-year cycle. And then this time, this time it just happens to line to all line up. Imagine what would have happened had QT ended a year ago. You know, maybe we would have had a downturn and then another big move up, but that's not the case here, right? We have a top that aligns with all the other prior four-year cycle tops, but it's hard to go into 2026 assuming it won't be a continuation because we know that Bitcoin continued to drop for several months after QT ended in 2019.
One of the things that I could see happening and is is probably starting to develop more into my base case at this point is, you know, when you look at Bitcoin and you look see where it is right now. If it were to play out exactly like 2022, then you would expect it to rally back up to the bull market support band before sweeping this like macro low here, right? So you see, so let me go through this. You see this low right here in in mid-2021. Once the bare market was in, once the top was in, we had this rally back to the 20-week SMA before dropping through that support level. See that? And so if it were to play out the same way, well then we just had, you know, this three-week rally and now we're in the middle of a three-week dump. And then after that, after we get through this part over the next three to four weeks, once we get into early 2026, then we get the rally up to the bull market support band. And it and it would make sense because I have to imagine, and maybe maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I almost have to imagine that the people that are going to sell because of a potential bare market, like if you haven't already sold, I mean, I have said before, I think Q4 is time is the time to take profits, right? You know, but by the time you get to the end of Q4, whoever was going to sell at that point probably have already sold. You know, I'm sure there are some people that will not sell in Q4 and that then will decide to sell on January 1st. But to me, if practically speaking, you know, how many people are going to wait three months and then decide in month four that's when they want to sell. And so I think a lot of times that's why you'll have these like three-month downturns followed by a, um, a counter-trend rally back up, and then the deeper part of the bare market sets in, right?
Now, previously, and potentially still could play out. You could argue that, you know, that the Bitcoin would get this rally before going below this low. So this cycle, it would look like potentially rallying up to the bull market before Bitcoin goes below 74K. But I do wonder, given how weak this little rally right there was, I wonder if we're going to see it sweep it before that rally happens. Because if you look at 2022, at this this sort of this three-week rally right there, I mean, it was like almost a 40% move up. But the one we just got was like half that, right? Like it wasn't that big of a move up. And so it, it does start to make me wonder if it's going to play out in a way where we saw some of the other assets play out. If you're not familiar with what I'm talking about, we've actually seen this pattern a lot over the last year. I try to look for patterns like this, try to just for, you know, repetition and kind of see what's going on. Uh, but Nvidia actually had a very similar pattern. And I'd have to caution you because if you look at the chart, it, it would probably make you think that Bitcoin would then immediately go to new all-time highs after this happens. But I don't think it's going to be the case. But if you look at the Nvidia stock price, what you'll notice is that there was a low, and then we swept the low, and then we had a rally to all-time highs. Right? You can see that pretty clearly, right? Low, a sweep of the low, and then a rally to all-time highs. It's not impossible for that to happen.
But what I could see happening, I, I could see a sweep of the low by the end of the year, early next year. And then as people finally accept the bare market, then you get your counter-trend rally back up, and it'll probably top at a lower high, would be my guess. Followed by a lower low. That's how I, what I think is the most likely outcome. Now, if this were to happen, you could get some altcoins that go to all-time highs. Like, it's not impossible for that to happen. Uh, but I could see it playing out like that, and then Bitcoin gets a deeper drop into the summer where we really sort of settle into the idea of of, you know, sort of the crypto winter, if you will. Um, and I don't know exactly how low it's going to go. I mean, I, I've kind of set a price target of approximately 60 to 70K by the summer, but I don't know exactly. I mean, I do think you have to be aware that the 200-day SMA is always in play in midterm years, and you can see that's going to be coming up right to that 60 to 70K mark. So, that's kind of what I'm thinking here.
Um, but it is interesting because in a sense, this bare market is very different from the bare market from 2022, 2018, and 2014 because it's not coming off of the back of an alt season. You know, all the bare markets back then were coming off of an alt season where there was a lot of malinvestment of capital into micro-cap altcoins, and then Bitcoin went down to punish them. This one again is coming off of off of apathy, right? It's coming off of apathy and not euphoria. And so I have to defer to 2019. And so when we look at at sort of the QT ending, uh, the sort of QT ending and then it leading into a bare market, and you look at this cycle compared to what happened in 2019, it does seem to track it relatively closely. And what happened back then is that we just kind of had a slow bleed, and every once in a while, you would get this like big rally back up, and then it just would result in a lower high, and then we would eventually go lower and and eventually we finally started to bottom out. Um, and then we started to to break out, right? You can see we, we broke through the lower high structure, and then, of course, we did have a recession induced by the pandemic. But I'm not really asking you to look at this right now. I'm just saying look at this part of it. Okay? So if you look at this part of it, we're currently on day 70. And this would suggest to expect lower highs and lower lows probably for another 100 days, 120 days, right? So at least another four months or so.
Now, I think that there is a chance. I don't know. Like, I, I don't want to get your hopes up because I, I don't want people to like think that I'm what I'm saying is is what it has to happen because I, I don't really want to do that. What I am saying is that there is a chance that Bitcoin finds a low around May, maybe even a little before. I mean, if this chart is true, it could even be around April. There's a chance. And then maybe it tries to build off of that. And then perhaps you get another drop later on in 2026. Uh, and then maybe this ends up being a year, anyways, like it always is. And and the low ends up being October 2026. But I do think that one of the, if you need a narrative, you shouldn't need a narrative, but if you need a narrative to sort of justify something like this playing out where it starts to break out in May and June of next year, uh, not necessarily a new all-time high, but just some renewed interest. That narrative might just simply be, you know, Powell gets replaced as chair of the Federal Reserve, and then the market starts pricing in a lot more rate cuts. The hard part now is that we still all have we have all these macro headwinds ahead of us for the next four months, right? So, I don't really think there's going to be a whole lot changing over the next four months. The only thing that might really change to justify the Fed cutting more is if the stock market were to start start dropping. And that hasn't even happened yet, right? Like, I mean, stocks are, you know, essentially near all-time highs. Now, I mean, I'm not saying it's impossible for them to to find a high soon. I mean, you can see there's plenty of times where you get kind of like a high and then a slightly higher high and then you get a drop. So, maybe that's where the stock market is right now. But I do wonder if if this is is ultimately how it it will play out.
Um, so yes, I think we have a a classic case of the bare market blues. We're all sitting here. We've all been through the bare markets before. The 2018 bare market, the 2022 bare market, some of us through the 2014 bare market, right? We've seen it before. Many of us through the 2019 bare market into the pandemic crash. And it just seems like, yeah, that's probably where we are right now. We're in the early stages, maybe not even that early. I mean, really, it's already been going on for over two months. Um, again, if you, if you look at the 2019 drop, it lasted about 25 weeks before the breakout occurred if you exclude the recession from the pandemic. Um, so far, we're already 11 weeks in. So, about half, about half. And that's what I mean, like there, there's a chance that we're further into the bare market than people think. And so I could envision a scenario where a lot of people who are waiting on a super cycle or whatever they want to call it. I envision a scenario where those are the guys that lead to the counter-trend rally potentially in early 2026 and then it leads them to the "I told you so" tour. But by the time they're convinced that it's a bare market, maybe they end up capitulating at the bottom like that. I mean, those are the people that might end up, by the time that they are convinced it's a bare market, the bare market might be over because, and by that point, like who else are you, are you trying to convince at that point? Um, that's why it's usually important to try to like recognize these trends early on because if you wait too long to recognize it, then it, it could already be behind you.
So, I think we have a classic case of the bare market blues. I think that we need to be open-minded to Bitcoin sweeping this low. I don't, I don't think it has to sweep it before the rally to the bull market support band, but I mean, it, it, it almost would just seem too easy if it plays out exactly like 2022. So, I do wonder if it needs to do something slightly different, and and something slightly different would involve would involve sweeping this low. And that would actually be more similar to 2019 because if you look at 2019, you'll see that the counter-trend rally back up to the bull market support band occurred after sweeping that prior low. Right? You can see there was a low, a distribution phase, and then a sweep of the low, and then that counter-trend rally back up. So, what if that's just where we are, where we have a low, a distribution phase, and then we're just kind of waiting until we sweep this low, then rally to the bull market support band, then down into April, May, consolidate, and then try to break back up like it. It very well could play out like that. And honestly, I'm kind of going into this thinking that that's the most likely outcome. That's kind of how I think it makes the most amount of sense to play out.
And so, yeah, I think we have a a case, a classic case of the bare market blues, but this is normal, right? Like we, we have bare markets. It's not our first bare market. It certainly won't be our last bare market, and it's just something that we have to accept. Trade the market you have, not the market that you want. So, while we have a classic case of the bare market blues, just remember, long-term, all the money is actually made in the bare markets, right? As I said yesterday, the money, the real money that was made this cycle was the people who bought in late 2022, okay? It wasn't the people that yoloed in at like 70K. It was the people that got in at 15K. So, in order to set those opportunities up, well, at some point, you have to have the bare market. And unfortunately, that's just where we are now. But again, I think the longer you're in the markets, you just kind of start to to accept each part of the cycle and, you know, just treat it for what it is, right? None of us can control it. There's not a thing any of us can do about it other than to just respect the market that we are given at any specific time. So hopefully, we'll get this, hopefully, we can get through this bare market together, uh, and and deal, uh, with this classic case of the bare market blues.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Again, we do have the sale going on. It will end by the end of the year. So, lock in the rate if you want to for 2026. Um, because I don't think we're going to we're going to come back to these these prices, uh, for for ITC. So, if you guys want it, make sure you lock in the rate before the end of the year. Thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up. And I'll see you guys next time.