Transcription
This news is extremely important for knowing where we are in the Alcoin cycle, and it confirms my hypotheses a little, which I will discuss today. KDA has completely abandoned its project. This is important news, and you will understand why. I will talk to you again about cyclicity and what is happening precisely at the level of this cyclicity. And the news about KDA confirms all of this.
Just before starting, I remind you that our algo service is still available, with over 30 R for the SPT algorithms. That was their record last week. Also, the LIM algorithms achieved 30 TP. I remind you once again that past performance does not reflect future performance. To access this algorithm, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. It will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via your partner link by clicking on this first link. You create your account simply, and once that's done, you just need to watch this short video. It's the second link. Algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto. And I will explain how to configure all of this for free.
So, you already have access to the mentorship with 24 video courses, but also access here to the VIP Alcoin and the VIP crypto. This is where we will share the best opportunities on altcoins from our point of view.
Now, let's talk about KDA and more specifically about market cyclicity. So, we have KDA which, uh, has abandoned its project, uh, perhaps due to lack of funding, or simply the developers left, or disagreements. Anyway, but consequently, the market, which is quite bearish in the Alt market, is starting to make some project creators and developers abandon their projects. So, in fact, we are seeing in the crypto market what we also see in the stock market during cycles, meaning cycles of rise and cycles of fall. In fact, the market cleans itself out, and very often, when we see certain companies go bankrupt in a specific sector and abandon their businesses, we are often not far from the bottoms and the end of a bearish cycle, because the market cleans itself out. And once many companies start to go bankrupt, we know we are not far from the bottom. For example, when FTX went bankrupt and they had scammed everyone, etc., that was the last big blow to the crypto market. And that's when we marked our bottom, and then we had a long period of consolidation.
Here, I'm not saying that KDA will go back up. The fact that they abandoned the project, well, probably some big players had already sold before, people knew that now the news is public. But broadly speaking, to get back to our cycle here, and I will use this chart, not that one. Odders against BTC USD, not KDR. We would like Oders Bitcoin to look like this. But to show you this tweet here, well, simply what is quite interesting is that we can see that on our chart, we have noted this long-term support as our chance to mark a bottom in the Alt market. Again, this is Altcoins against Bitcoin, it's important to understand that. So, what needs to be understood is that if BTC is starting a bearish swing, then altcoins will continue to fall in dollar terms and against Bitcoin too, because in fact, it would indicate that we would retest this wick, but it would indicate that the worst is behind us, that basically the market will now start to structure a bottom, probably on this long-term support. And in fact, this night on KDA is confirming it, because as I tweeted here, which I will simply copy and display for you to go into a bit more detail: KDA completely stops the development of its project. Just like in the stock market, the weakest companies fall, and the market cleans itself out. Other altcoins risk following the same path in the coming weeks, and what I'm saying is that this is often a signal of a bottom not far from the bear market.
Okay. So, in my opinion, there are other cryptocurrencies that will soon suffer this fate, with major projects probably stopping because the market is cleaning itself out. This will make way for other projects, other new projects that will arrive, and so on. And in the stock market, it's the same thing because there's a lack of funding. It's often during these QT phases, when there's a lack of liquidity, a lack of new investors, a lack of funding, and that's what prevents them from developing further, or simply the company has become too indebted trying to increase revenue, etc., to grow, to get bigger, but the numbers don't follow, and therefore they can no longer repay their loans, and they prefer to stop and declare bankruptcy, quite simply.
Well, for altcoins, it's a bit different, but here, it was KDA's choice, and I think many altcoins will do the same because, in fact, there are very few new investors, so there is very little new funding possible, and that's why many projects are launched and fail. And in fact, two things will happen. The first is that those who are honest. So KDA is very honest in making a public announcement and saying, "Well, we're not working anymore, quite simply because, for x or y reason." So, that's very honest. Then there are the second ones who will be much less honest and who have probably been in this situation for months, who, well, are no longer working on their project but continue to do a bit of communication to try to maintain prices, etc. But they themselves know they are not doing anything anymore and will not do anything anymore, and it's to continue distributing as much as possible before it goes to zero because, in fact, they will simply do nothing more. So that's the second stage. So, well, it's the second part of the developers, well, of the project owners, who will simply do nothing more but not communicate about it. So, it's like KDA, but they won't say it. They won't say they're not working anymore. So, that's to prevent their token from crashing like KDA, for example. So, all of this is something that needs to be taken into account, and I say it's positive.
Well, I'm sorry for those who invested in KDA. Once again, it's part of investment risk. When you invest in a project, in a startup, a company, well, you take the risk that it fails. Otherwise, you would invest in Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, which will likely be around in 10 years with perhaps lower returns. That's it. When you make somewhat exotic investments, well, you take gambles, they are riskier gambles, and then you try to see if it can perform or not. So, unfortunately for KDA, that wasn't the case here. And that's to say that, well, it proves that in terms of cyclicity, we are closer to the bottom than the top, because people don't stop working when the market is good. Precisely, they stop working when the market is so bad that there is no more funding, no more investors. And that, as I say, is often a signal of a bottom.
What happens after that? It's not "to the moon" at all, it's not "boom," we're going "to the moon," great, they abandoned. Now, I'm not talking about KDA, I'm talking about altcoins against Bitcoin. That's how we evaluate if we are in a bear market or a bull market for altcoins. Bull market, bear market, bull market, always bear market for 4 years. This primarily responds to liquidity cycles from my point of view. We saw that despite Bitcoin's halving in 2024, well, nothing happened with altcoins because there's a huge lack of liquidity. Supply increase, meaning an increase in new altcoins, an increase in altcoin supply, and no demand, so prices continue to fall. And so, the fact that we are entering this phase, well, in my opinion, as I said, we will see more and more of it in the coming weeks, many projects will close shop, in my opinion. And so, once again, well, we see that it's happening at the right time, because here I'm looking at Odc, but if we also look at Total 3 BTC, we've been talking about this zone for a very long time, it's also the same zones, the major long-term support. So, you see that we are closer to the bottom than the top.
But what happens next? Well, it's not "to the moon" directly. What will happen is very likely a consolidation phase, and this confirms a bit what I had explained in a video, which was that in my opinion, this phase that I had marked in yellow here, well, first of all, we are soon at the end of QT. So, for those who don't know, QT and QE. To put it simply, QE means printing money, or rather the Fed injecting liquidity to boost financial markets, to boost the economy. QT means the Fed withdrawing it, quite simply, it cuts back on bond repurchase programs, etc. Well, it has resumed some of its programs, so we are no longer really in a QT, but by definition, it is the case. And this QT should end, according to what Powell said in a previous meeting, in the coming months, so probably in 2026. So, then, when there is no more QT, there is no immediate QE. QE only arrives when the economy needs it, or when there is, yes, when it's needed for something specific, for example, for the rollover of US debt, etc. But in my opinion, what is likely to happen on this chart is not "to the moon" directly. It will perhaps be to retest the bottom, make a rebound, and then mark a peak and enter a large consolidation, and then pump for the next QE phase. We can estimate that the next QE could arrive in 2028, for example, because interest rates in 2028 will be lower than now. We can also estimate that the AI bubble will last another year or two. I mean, it could last even longer, but at some point, this bubble will burst, and there will be repercussions on the economy, because right now, what is driving the economy upwards and what is masking all the mess a bit is the performance of AI, data centers, etc.
There was a study that came out recently, I think by Harvard students, which basically said that real GDP is at 0.1% if we remove AI data centers, etc. If we remove AI, broadly speaking, so it's a neutral GDP, and well, it risks crashing the day AI starts to deflate. The AI bubble will start to deflate. So, we can assume that within one or two years, well, the job market will slow down considerably. I don't know if you saw it, but there was another interesting piece of news that came out. I'll try to find it, but it's Amazon. Amazon or Google, I'm not sure. Wait, I'll find it. But which will replace 600,000 human beings soon with robots or AI. Wait, I'll find the news. Yes, that's it. Can I copy the image? Paste it here.
There. So, Amazon has a plan to replace 600,000 American workers with robots. So, that will create unemployment. So, all of this will slow down the economy. And now, more and more, even at Google, they are talking about 2027 significantly impacting the job market due to AI, etc. So, we can expect QE in 2027-2028, and therefore, conclude that the altcoin market will now enter a consolidation phase to prepare for the next bull cycle, because once again, there will be a next bull cycle. Cycles repeat themselves, human psychology repeats itself, everyone believes in it, it corrects, everyone thinks it will start again. When it consolidates for a long time, no one believes in it anymore. And that's where opportunities are made, and where a next bull cycle is formed. So, in my opinion, we will still have to be patient, and in fact, we see that we are in a similar situation to a stock market cycle where there is a bubble, where companies arrive and then can no longer sustain themselves in the long term and continue to develop their projects. So, companies go bankrupt. So, that's a bit like KDA's case if we draw a parallel in crypto, and this is very often an indicator of a bottom. But bottom does not mean "to the moon." Bottom means probably slow consolidation before marking the next bull cycle.
So, that's why I wanted to make a video about this today. It's extremely important. Now, I will not analyze KDA because it's pointless, honestly. It's probably a project that will be delisted everywhere very likely because they will no longer pay the listing renewal fees on exchanges, etc. And so, that's why people are selling. But anyway, all of this is to say that there are probably other projects that will suffer the same fate. Be prepared. I hope it doesn't happen to the projects you've invested in, obviously. Other projects will not communicate but are already no longer working and are letting their tokens go to zero, yes, that's very probable too. So, the market is cleaning itself out in the long term, and consequently, it will simply make way for the next cycle with new projects that will arrive by then, but also projects that will have remained, that will have continued to work, that will find new investors in a next cycle of cyclicity, because as you know, there are cycles, it's a relationship of supply and demand. At certain times, demand is stronger than supply, so that's a bull cycle. Then, at some point, supply exceeds demand, and so that's a bear cycle. We have that currently in the crypto market. Very little new liquidity is entering, and many investors are stuck with supply that is released every week with new projects with increasingly absurd FDVs. So, that dilutes the money we still have in the market a bit. So, that's what adds to the supply, quite simply. So, all of this, well, it's to be taken into account. I find this to be good news, to be honest with you. It clearly shows that we are more at the end of the bear cycle than anything else, and that, well, the worst is behind us, and then it will be a matter of patience and waiting for the market to do what it has to do. That is, to depress everyone, for no one to believe in it anymore, and then precisely when everyone has capitulated, then we can start again on a bull cycle.
So, I really think we are reaching the very, very end of the bear cycle, but that doesn't mean "to the moon." It will mean more consolidation and preparing for the next cycle. And so, it will require more patience, but only those who are patient and who remain will be able to benefit from a next bull cycle. And I think by then, 90% of people will have capitulated again, because there will be no more hope of a rise, and when there is no more hope of a rise, it will probably be the best time to position oneself for the medium to long term.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, feel free to leave a thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. If there's plenty of free content for you, don't hesitate. See you very soon. Have a good day.