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[Music] Welcome, viewers, to Thonth. In this year 2026, there are opportunities for investors worldwide. Amidst the battlefield of World War III, a war where we might not see large-scale troop engagements, but rather a new form of warfare that will impact global assets. Where are the opportunities if we are to seize them for portfolio growth and our survival? Today, we are honored to have with us Professor Thaweesuk. We must thank the professor for gracing us with his presence today. Professor, hello. >> Yes, hello. >> Yes, Professor, we are currently in the midst of World War III, aren't we? How different is it from the past, from the First and Second World Wars? >> Uh, in terms of its genesis, it's not very different. But in terms of the form of combat, we can see that it's quite different, quite a lot. >> This time, we won't see large-scale troop movements, but rather the formation of conflict. We are in the stage of formation, of creating conflict. And we will have points of war in 2-3 locations around this world. And at this moment, the whole world is still watching the major battlefield directly between the United States and Iran. This is a juncture where we see in the present era, where the severity might be greater due to the significant difference in combat potential compared to the past. And the combat technology is quite different. But what is the same is that right now, there is an economic and financial crisis, and a banking system crisis. If we know world history, from another perspective, we are not saying that World War I started from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but from another angle, Mr. Thanawat. It's that before World War I, there was a bank system shutdown for about 6 months, and a trading system shutdown in the stock markets in both Europe and America. The reason was that European banks, whether in England, France, or Germany, had lent to the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire, and there was a default on those bonds. This caused a ripple effect, impacting the banking crisis in England, France, and Germany, who were the lenders. Therefore, the bankers designed it to create a larger conflict to transfer risk from the banks to the people of each country. >> Yes, and this time, did the origin of the war also stem from the banking sector? >> This time, it stems from two things: the banking sector and the rise of new technologies. Currently, it's in a competition called what? A horse race, where you have to measure who will overtake by a nose. And if we look at the big picture analysis, we will see that this year will be the starting point of entering a new industrial era. And entering a new industry is an interesting starting point. Mr. [host's name], it's that the United States and China will go their separate ways. >> Yes. >> Yes, in different directions regarding technology, which we will discuss in more detail later. >> Yes, actually, besides trade wars, tariff wars, and power grabs, what other origins or weapons will they use in future conflicts that are concerning? >> Uh, in terms of using violence, and unseen things like infiltrating countries around the world, and causing economic crises globally. Most countries want their currency to weaken. But we have seen that in the past 2-3 years, there has been a phenomenon called the weakening of the dollar. >> Yes. But if we compare the dollar to the baht and other currencies, we will see that the dollar has clearly depreciated. And it depreciates even more severely when compared to the price of gold and some commodities like silver and platinum. >> Yes. And will the opportunity to weaken continue, or will we see a shift from the US? >> Both can happen. It's possible that they will return to being a new superpower. >> That means they have to win the war with Iran. They will be able to stand strong again, and the rejection of the dollar from elsewhere will decrease. First, they must overcome or manage this economic crisis. Which is not an easy round at this moment. >> Yes. >> Yes, in your opinion, between fighting Iran and solving the US economic problems, which should be the priority? >> It's a matter of solving them together. Because right now, the problem with America's internal banking system is clearly showing its fragility. It has been evident since the beginning of the year. Initially, I thought it might happen around the second or third quarter, but it started to appear right at the beginning of the year. >> Therefore, it will be a catalyst for Mr. Trump to do something to regain his status as the number one superpower. And that includes increasing his power in warfare. >> Yes. The problems in the US banking industry are starting to appear, but are they points that could erupt into a major, widespread problem? >> Hmm, I think the scale of the damage is quite high. At this moment, there are two things behind the problems of the US banking system. First, it's the US Treasury bonds that banks hold. Normally, when we deposit money in a bank, the bank doesn't know what to do with it, so it deposits it in government bonds, which are considered the safest. But when interest rates were raised, which was surprising in the last rate hike, it took only 18 months to raise interest rates from 0.25% to 5.25%. This is a relatively short period. And as we discussed last time, I believe the Federal Reserve might have to lower interest rates at least twice. But they missed the third cut. What happens when they miss the third cut? The bond market doesn't respond. And the lack of response indicates the real problem: the Federal Reserve might not be able to control interest rates, similar to Japan. Currently, the mistake in Japan is that the person controlling interest rates for the BOJ has to follow suit. >> Uh, and what will happen will affect the economic growth rate of the US, and Mr. Trump will have to deal with it in many dimensions, right? >> Yes. The dimensions occurring at this moment are much more complex. And the problems will become severe in the second and third quarters from now. We saw that at the end of last week, at the end of January, when the First Chicago Bank and Trust went bankrupt. It was a small bank, with damages of only over 260 million. >> But it reflects one thing: the regional banking system still has bigger problems waiting. As we discussed earlier, I thought it would happen around the second or third quarter. But now, it's happening faster than that, it's surfacing. And besides US Treasury bonds being a problem, there's another thing that smaller banks hold: real estate loans. That is, commercial real estate. They lend for building offices, malls, various shopping malls. It turns out that these loans amount to about 1.88 trillion. And the regional banks, which are the smaller state-level banks, have lent about 70% of that 1.88 trillion for these projects. >> Uh. >> So, we can see the scale. It's almost 10 times larger than the subprime crisis. At that time, it was only tens of billions. And it caused widespread damage of over 800 billion. But now, it's about 70% of 1.88 trillion. At this scale, why do I think this year will be problematic? Because during COVID, loans were issued at interest rates of 2%, 2.5-3%, for 5 years. And this year is the year of what is called a "rollover war." It will be a large rollover. The benchmark interest rate in the market, or MBS interest rates, have risen to over 6%. So, these have the potential to adjust interest rates up to about 7-8%. This could be a big bomb. But what's even more hidden is that the real estate for which they borrowed, let's say they borrowed 100 million. It turns out that the rental income has decreased to about 40-60%. On average, it's half. So, the asset value has decreased. And the problem is that the 100 million cannot be rolled over at a value of 100 million. It has to be rolled over at half the value, which is 50 million. Where will they get the 50 million to cover the shortfall? The bank's risk is about 20% of 100 million. But there's a connection: the 30% that we put in as equity. For example, if viewers borrow from a bank to do a project, viewers have to put in 30% equity and borrow 70% from the bank. Therefore, if it drops by 50%, the bank risks about 20 out of 100. But the other 30% that we put in as equity, in America, they do this: they borrow from private credit funds. >> Yes. >> From private credit funds from BlackRock. They borrow and make it complex, meaning they use it as equity and then borrow from the bank again. If it drops by 50%, the money borrowed from private credit funds will become zero immediately and will not be returned. This connects to private credit funds, which are long-term funds. They are held by state funds, foundation funds, retirement funds, insurance company funds. They allocate portfolios to lend to private credit funds, which we call high-risk lending. >> Yes, that too. >> If this time bomb explodes, the damage to the economy would be much more severe than in the past, wouldn't it? >> Uh, the damage will be right here: it's with the small banks, the state banks. There are about 1,488 of them facing problems. But the severely ill ones are about nearly 600. And there will be events like last Friday, the 30th, where they suddenly declared bankruptcy. Now, there's a problem: we see that the FDIC will guarantee deposits up to 250,000, right? 250,000 dollars. >> Yes. >> Uh, the problem is that the FDIC's fund is only about 0.55% of the estimated initial damage. >> Which is less. >> Which is less. >> Yes. >> But okay, we are not panicking. We might think that the Fed might... >> Supplement it. >> Supplement it. This is looking at it from the perspective that if they want to prevent the system from having problems. So, if the new Fed governor is a hawk, we might say they might use decisive problem-solving. We have to wait and see what happens in the future. But the problem hidden in the events of the end of last week, with the bank failures, which are similar to Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank collapsing in 2023, where is the problem? Mobile phones. >> Uh, how? >> Normally, people rush to withdraw money, right? You see them queuing up. But now, everyone transfers money via mobile banking. >> Yes. >> And the bank's reserves disappear, causing the bank to... >> Go bankrupt within 48 hours. That was the event in 2023, which is similar to the event in the past week. So, what we need to be careful about now is the use of mobile banking and the rush to withdraw money, to transfer money out of regional banks to JP Morgan, to Gensax, or to money market funds. This is what banks are very concerned about now: money leaving. Because currently, as of Friday the 30th, about 43% of deposits have left the regional banking system. The Fed needs to find a way to manage this, otherwise, it will collapse like dominoes. >> Yes. So, the event that occurred on January 30, 2026. >> Yes. Which, if panic sets in, it can spread beyond control and exceed the actual situation. >> Yes. >> Yes. It will be a panic that might spread to other regions worldwide as well, right? >> Uh, right now, it's likely to be within American banks first. But what will cause it to spread globally is the interbank lending rate in the US, or the LIBOR rate. >> It might spike. >> Uh. >> Which currently, the LIBOR rate, compared to the reference rate announced by the Fed, is about 0.5% higher. This is higher than the market. And the Fed has been trying to inject liquidity into the system since October. They have been injecting liquidity, and the liquidity injected is higher than during the period before the pandemic. Last time, in 2019, liquidity in the system suddenly disappeared, leading to everything ending with the pandemic and a severe stock market crash. At that time, the stock market, bond market, and commodity market all crashed. And the Fed had to increase its balance sheet by trillions of dollars during that period. So, there are already signs that since October, the Fed has been injecting liquidity into the system continuously to prevent this interest rate from spiking. >> Yes. >> But if this event happens, and compared to 2008 when panic occurred, this interest rate spiked to about 7%. If it spikes to 7%, it will have an impact on US bond yields, and it will have a severe impact on global bond yields immediately. And most importantly, what will be very volatile is the exchange rate. The exchange rate will be quite volatile if anything happens with bank failures this time, compared to 2008. >> Yes. What is the probability of this happening? Can the US control it? >> I think the government is aware of this. But checking the numbers, I think it should have happened around the third quarter. But it happened in the first month of the year, and in Chicago. We don't know if there are more cockroaches out there. Preliminary analysis suggests there are about 30-40 more banks facing this problem. For example, in American banks, there was a slight manipulation. They should have recorded losses on the government bonds they hold. They thought it was still an unrealized loss. >> Meaning they expect a loss, but it hasn't had an accounting impact yet, so the bank doesn't fail. But as soon as there's a rush to withdraw, they have to sell those assets, especially US Treasury bonds, which are highly liquid. This will cause the bank to realize losses, meaning they have to assess the actual loss. >> When you combine US Treasury bonds with the impending rollover war this year, which is a very big year, it leads to failures and rapid takeover of operations. >> Yes. But the problems in the US are not just this. There are many other issues. >> Yes. Especially the enormous debt. How many ways are there to solve this? >> Uh, right now, the Trump administration is lying to its people, saying they will create a trade war by taxing competing countries. But in reality, it's like they are lying to the people because, in the end, the people are the ones paying. For example, on my last trip to America, I had the opportunity to eat at a Thai restaurant by chance. >> They were talking, and they said the price of food ingredients they import is so high that they can barely sell it and make any profit. In the end, these prices have to be increased. >> Yes. >> And ultimately, the consumers are the ones who... >> Bear the burden. >> Bear this burden. And the increased expenses. It's simple, like they increased VAT. >> Yes. >> So, everyone who buys goods in that country has to pay more VAT. But this is a trade tax. If we buy goods there, we have to pay this tax. Mr. Trump is very proud that he collected so much tax this year. But that means the cost of living for Americans has increased. This is another way to solve the problem. But due to the high expenses in the US, and the very high interest payments this year, because last year's interest payments were a result of the rollover since the subprime crisis, where interest rates were kept at 0-0.25%, and most of it was rolled over last year, 9 trillion dollars. >> And then the interest that the Treasury has to pay back will be much higher this year. This has risen to about one-third of the government's annual expenses. If this year requires another rollover at new interest rates, it will become a problem of increased fiscal burden. And where will they get the taxes to pay for it? So, the problem is that Mr. Trump has to find other solutions. Uh-huh. >> Yes. So, the solutions to solve the debt must extend to war, or might involve other assets in the world? >> Uh, I think it will be like World War I and World War II. Because, in reality, we think it's about global politics. But the banking system behind governments worldwide is the one that wants war to happen. So that... >> There is a theory of problem-solving. >> They say you have to create a bigger problem, and the existing problem will become smaller. >> Yes. >> Yes. This is one of the theories used in World War I and World War II. >> But if we look at what has happened since the Russia-Ukraine war, it has reduced the credit of the United States. For example, Russia is not fighting Ukraine; Russia is fighting NATO, with NATO soldiers and weapons from the US being sent in. We have seen that in the prolonged conflict of about 4 years, Russia has been losing all along. And Russia has shown its weapon capabilities, which are called highly efficient in many forms. This has reduced the credit of the US. And what has reduced credit the most is Iran's attack on Israel. In just 12 days, it caused very high damage to Israel. So much so that the US had to beg for planes to fly in and drop a bomb, and then we would be at war. Because if it goes beyond that, Israel would have to use a stronger strategy, which is to launch nuclear bombs at Iran. They don't want it to reach that point. But now, America is using the method of sending a fleet to intimidate. >> Uh. >> The problem is this: if they bring it to intimidate, the problem is not bringing it to intimidate, but what form will it take? >> If they bring it and nothing happens, an agreement is reached, and so on. This time, Iran is the side that doesn't want any agreement that puts them at a disadvantage. So, what we will see this week is how Mr. Trump will find a way out. >> Uh. Because if they retreat further, it will mean that bond yields will spike, and the dollar will weaken because of the event where they are called unable to be a superpower by sending a large fleet. And if they create an event for the world to see, there have been leaks that they contacted to say, "Then let's shoot back and forth, make an agreement, and stop." >> Yes. >> And Iran has already announced that they will not negotiate this matter. >> Uh. >> Yes. This time, we have seen that by creating internal chaos in Iran in the early part of this year, there was internal unrest, which we saw was the work of external forces creating chaos there. And Iran has already dealt with it. This makes it so that they will not choose to negotiate. >> Yes. >> Yes. So, from this perspective, if both sides are happy, it will have no impact on the bond market. But if it's worse, there will be fighting. >> Uh. >> And a submarine sinks, or an aircraft carrier sinks. That's the most expensive insurance in the world. >> It will cause US interest rates to spike immediately, and the dollar will fall. Because once, before World War I, the Russian Empire, which had been great for 300 years, however great it was, imagine the situation in America at that time. Losing a war to Japan caused bond prices, bond interest rates, to spike immediately. And the currency, the Russian ruble, fell sharply due to losing the war. So, in this model, it will be similar if anything happens to the US. Therefore, is the only way out... >> To completely destroy Iran. >> Will we see that, Professor? >> Look at this: Palestine, a small area. >> Uh. >> And Israel is one of the five most militarily capable countries in the world. >> It took 2 years, and everything had to start over. >> Yes. >> And Iran, an area almost as large as the United States. >> Yes. >> But if the US retreats, it's not beneficial in any dimension for all of its assets. >> They have to fight. >> The biggest enemy of the United States right now is only one thing. >> Yes. >> Time. >> Uh. >> What happens if it drags on, Professor? >> The longer it drags on, the more detrimental it will be to the US. >> Yes. We will see that the situation in the country is escalating. Regarding banks, they are suppressing news. Anything that happens, they quickly suppress it. We saw that Friday the 30th was very minor news, almost no one talked about it. But this is news suppression, and the Treasury has to buy bonds in the weekly auction, and in quite large quantities, because no one wants US Treasury bonds anymore. >> Yes. >> And there will be selling from Japan, China, and many other countries, increasing more and more. This situation, time, will make the US a loser in every dimension. >> Yes. Are there any other solutions? Gold, which has been accumulated in large quantities. >> Yes. >> Could it help solve their debt problem? >> There was a case where the White House issued Executive Order 6102. At that time, they announced a gold price adjustment, from about $20.83 per ounce to $35 per ounce. >> Yes. >> The whole world was confused, right? Did they devalue the currency? >> Uh. Like today, when the price of gold has risen by over 5,000, we wonder if gold is expensive, or if the currency has weakened, or if the currency has actually weakened and we don't realize it. >> Uh. In reality, all currencies in the world are weakening without us realizing it. And there will be 2-3 more cases to follow. So, in the case of Executive Order 6102, it was a devaluation, but they talked about the price of gold. >> Yes. >> The most important weapon for the US right now is gold, 8,500 tons that they have. >> If they reduce it to $10,000 per ounce, it will serve as collateral for US debt instruments by about 10%. >> Yes. >> But if we think like the White House thought, to make gold cover the debt value by 40%, they would have to adjust it to $40,000 per ounce. >> Per ounce of gold. >> $40,000, which is almost 9-10 times higher than now. >> Oh, yes. And how much debt would that cover? >> It would cover about 40% of their debt. 40%. >> Ah, but the values of currencies will decrease compared to gold. This will be a big problem because what follows the rise of gold is that commodity prices will increase. We see that gas prices, oil prices, have increased considerably in the past month. And what has risen a lot is the price of beef. Fortunately, the price of eggs has decreased. But what follows commodities and all consumer food prices is interest rates. >> Yes. >> Today, we see that Japan cannot control interest rates. Europe and the United States are entering a state where they might not be able to control interest rates. And inflation, which everyone hasn't had the chance to assess, normally when we talk about inflation, it's that things are more expensive, right? But this inflation will be very bad inflation, which is inflation from the severe depreciation of currency. Because last year, what led the way was the rise in the prices of gold and platinum. >> Yes. >> Platinum and silver. These are significant indicators that global inflation will be uncontrollable. The rise in gold, I always say it should rise gradually, which is better inflation. But now, we see a very steep graph, and it exploded during Friday the 30th night, and on Monday morning, it continued to adjust downwards. But on Friday the 30th, there was an event: the case of silver being dumped from around 115. JP Morgan Chase closed its short position in silver at the lowest point. >> Coincidence? >> Coincidence, right? They are a major controller of the silver market. >> Yes. And what's hidden in silver futures is that US futures prices fell by about 78, if I remember correctly, $78 per ounce. But the price of silver in the spot market futures... >> We don't just have the commodity market. Now we have spot futures at over 100 dollars, which is a difference of about 30%. So, on Monday morning, the price of silver jumped up to 85. But JP Morgan closed its short position on Friday the 30th and closed it at the lowest point. This indicates that there is a network involved in speculating on both gold and silver prices. >> That's why the graph is so steep. But the price of gold, what it should be, not what is speculated, should be around $4,500 to $5,000. In baht, I think it's around 68,000 to 73,000 baht. And I pray that it stays sideways for a while. It has risen so much and so fast. But it is predicted that by the end of the year, the price of gold will reach nearly 100,000. >> 100,000 baht per baht of gold. >> Per baht of gold. >> Will that correspond to about 7,000 for gold spot? >> It might depend on the currency. It might be around 6,000 something, or something like that, because the dollar will weaken further, which will make our baht stronger. >> Therefore, the critical point for February is whether the US will go to war with Iran. >> Uh. If they stop, the price of gold will adjust downwards first. >> Yes. >> And then adjust upwards again. >> Yes. >> But if America and Iran go all out, the price of gold and oil will surge. Because the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is a major oil export route, accounting for about one-third of the world's total volume. >> Yes. >> When there is war there, oil exports will disappear, and oil prices might reach $100 per barrel during that time. And this is why Mr. Trump rushed to deal with Venezuela. Because if anything happens in the Middle East, America will have a problem with insufficient oil. The quality of Venezuelan oil is not very good; it produces a lot of tar after refining, but it's necessary to have it. >> Yes. What will be the supporting factor for gold to reach about 100,000 baht per baht of gold, besides this? >> The depreciation of financial assets, especially US debt instruments. This is the main reason for this event. And then we have to see if the Fed, either the current chairman or the new one, will inject more money into the system. Currently, they are injecting money through financial institutions to prevent interest rates from rising, in terms of bank liquidity. But the problem is, after this, will they inject QE? If they inject QE again, it will be different from the previous QE. Because this QE injection will push the price of gold up further. >> Yes. So, you believe that the sharp correction in gold by $1,000 and gold in our country by about 10,000 baht per baht of gold is not the end of the cycle or the end of gold? >> It's due to extreme speculation, very high speculation, and the use of margin and leverage. When the price of gold or silver is pushed down to the stop-loss point, it causes it to flow. But what reflects another thing is the US Dollar Index. If the US Dollar Index adjusts downwards, the price of gold will adjust upwards. So, when the price of gold surged from $4,000 to $5,600, the dollar index graph adjusted downwards, and the price of gold surged upwards in the same direction. But what's strange is that on Friday and Monday, the dollar index did not adjust upwards, while the price of gold fell by $1,000. This indicates that this was not due to actual buying or selling. >> Uh. It was due to what is called forced selling by only certain groups. Therefore, the desire to exchange dollars to make the dollar index rise in the same direction as gold did not result in an increase. So, it's just a stop-loss in forcing sales because there is no liquidity in the system to absorb these assets. This is worrying. But what's worrying is not the price of gold. Because in the end, spot gold will lead paper gold or the largest gold futures. Currently, spot is leading because there is actual buying. >> But this liquidity will be reflected back in the US Treasury bond market. >> Yes. >> In the second week of January, there was a day, on Thursday the 2nd, during the US Treasury bond auction. There was a gap in trading, called a "free time," for about 25 seconds. >> Yes. >> There were no bids or offers to buy in the trade. This has never happened with the most liquid asset in the world. Among all assets, US Treasury bonds are considered highly liquid, and there has never been such "dead air" before. This reflects that the actual liquidity, the condition called "tightness," is likely to become increasingly strained. >> Yes. What will happen to US Treasury bonds in the future? And what are the opportunities for investors this year, including in bonds? >> Uh, right now, the US might have to maintain high interest rates, but the bond market itself might have to adjust upwards. But the Fed will lose control. Currently, if we invest in US bonds, or in US dollar money market funds, this is not the answer right now. But where is the answer? >> The answer is in Swiss franc money market funds. >> Uh. >> Because normally, compared to the dollar and the Swiss franc, they exchange at about 1.1 or 1.2 dollars per Swiss franc. >> Yes. >> Now, it has risen to 1.3. >> Yes. >> At 1.3, those who convert back from Switzerland will benefit. And if we compare it to interest rates, it's only slightly different. But compared to the safety of the currency, Swiss franc money market funds are still more interesting at this moment. >> In the first quarter, right? >> Yes. From now until everything is resolved, and we wait for the US interest rates to rise significantly. For example, if the banking system has problems. >> Yes. >> If there are severe problems, we will see short-term interest rates spike to about 6 or 7%. >> When short-term interest rates spike to 6 or 7%, US bond yields, especially 30-year bonds, those over 30 years, will adjust downwards quite sharply. >> Yes. Anyone holding 30-year bonds might lose 30-50%. But that means a 30-50% decrease in interest rates of over 7%. And if the Fed uses the same method as in 2008, pushing interest rates down to 0%, the returns will rebound immediately, possibly yielding 80-150% from the rebound in interest rates due to the Fed's reduction. Whether they will reduce or not, we have to see. But this is from the perspective of speculators who speculate on bond prices. >> Yes. And can retail investors do this at such critical junctures? Or how can Thai investors seek opportunities to be under the risk of bankruptcy or profit? >> Uh, it's very easy. Global trading systems can now trade in all markets, and short, medium, and long-term bonds are all available through ETFs. >> Yes. So, they can trade in the US market, any market. Therefore, investor opportunities are open, unlike during the crises in Greece, Turkey, or Sri Lanka. At that time, it was too small for retail investors to enter. So, now, it's something that people worldwide can participate in. However, we need to know the timing of entry, the game of bond price movements from interest rate changes or relationships. And we also need to know that when bank runs occur or banks fail, short-term interest rates will spike, and long-term interest rates will rise significantly, causing bond prices to fall sharply. And at that moment, we can then invest in long-term bonds if the Fed tends to lower interest rates. This will yield higher profits than the stock market. >> Yes. >> We have to read the game clearly and act quickly. >> Yes, yes. If we know the model, we can act on it. >> Yes. Other assets, such as silver, were quite hot last year. What are your views on this year, Professor? >> Yes, silver. I might look at it more from the perspective of speculation than gold. Because gold, at one point, after becoming a "bull trend," it has been classified as a tier similar to cash. So, when there are laws and regulations supporting it, I still give gold a percentage similar to cash, and perhaps even stronger than cash. Even though we are taught that it's a commodity, the law has changed, classifying it as a tier. Therefore, gold will be like a reserve asset, which silver is not yet. Platinum or white gold is not yet. I still see it as a real increase, but with speculation mixed in. >> Yes. But gold itself is an asset that many countries use as reserves rather than dollars, right? Is this another factor supporting gold's strength? >> Yes. Currently, central banks worldwide are continuously selling US Treasury bonds. We must say they are not throwing them away carelessly, but they are selling them and converting them into gold instead. This is what central banks worldwide are doing. And in January, because the price of gold rose, the value of gold as a reserve asset for central banks has surpassed US Treasury bonds. >> Yes. Therefore, gold will continue to be an investment asset this year. >> Uh, it's an asset to hold for the long term, not focused on speculation. Because anything can happen. I define this year as a year of unpredictability. It's a year where nothing can be predicted. Therefore, speculation will cause us severe losses because we don't know what might suddenly happen in the US. If a bank run suddenly occurs, there will be changing factors. Or if Iran and America suddenly start fighting, it will surge. But if they suddenly agree to disagree, pack up, and go home, after fishing, and so on, it will fall sharply. Everything can happen unpredictably. Therefore, what we do, and I'm not recommending this year as a year for speculation, but I want it to be a year of asset-backed security. Meaning, we hold assets to protect against risk. And the best risk protection is gold. But what we see is speculation mixed in. >> Yes. Now, oil prices have been quiet for a long time. >> Yes. >> Yes. What are your views on this year? With geopolitical unrest in various continents, will it accelerate oil prices, or not? >> This year, there is a risk of oil prices accelerating. But the question is, to what extent? If there is no war in the Middle East, oil prices will likely rise to $60-70. But if it happens in the Middle East, we will likely see prices rise to $85-100, because it affects one-third of global production, and there is no immediate substitute. >> Yes. >> So, we will have to wait and see the situation. >> Wait and see. >> The situation that will occur. But in the past year, in 2025, there have been many unexpected events. >> Yes. This year, we have another 11 months to go. We might encounter events that we don't expect or think are unlikely to happen again, right? How can we prepare to seize investment opportunities or other opportunities in this world? >> We must know about investment assets that I would call "multiglobal assets." Meaning, know about all types of assets. And we must know their true value. Therefore, what we see now, we should not see it as an economic crisis, but as a transition of the global system. >> Yes. We will set different objectives. If this round, what we see is a transition of the global system, then the first thing is, who will emerge as the leader of the new global system? >> Yes. Or there will be no single leader, but a collective consensus. This is another perspective, and it will turn out differently. Will the old be surpassed, or will the old maintain stability as before? Or will it be a global consensus, meaning everyone has the same opinion, a consensus? Therefore, in this case, it can go in three directions. >> Yes. When it can go in three directions, long-term investment is not the answer in terms of investing in stocks or bonds, because both stocks and bonds have interest rates as a problem. And the rate of non-performing loans...
Banks in each country in the world are adjusting, increasing higher. Therefore, what we will release from this risk is that instead of keeping all our money in the bank alone, we will divide our cash and put it into a Money Market Fund. If interest rates rise, the Money Market Fund will increase its interest rate first. This is a Money Market Fund located within the country, which is sold by every asset management company or every bank, so it can be purchased. However, banks have to wait for approval of savings deposit interest rates, which do not increase much. But if we put it into these bonds, these markets, they will increase first. The first point is, if we want to increase the risk a little, we can put it into a market fund denominated in Swiss currency. The risk here is the exchange rate. But right now, the risk is in assets called back securities that are in there, in the Swiss Franc Money Market Fund as well. This is another perspective. We don't have to go to the US side because if we go to the US, there is a risk, as you have experienced in the past 2 years. We will see that we get 5% true, 4% true, but the currency has dropped by more than 10%, which will result in an exchange rate loss. This is something we need to understand the game here. As for investing in stocks, this year is a year where we need to talk about new industries in this world because we are entering new industries. Old industries, we can see that they are just zombies, there is no opportunity for growth. Therefore, our old understanding of the stock market, capital market, etc., we need to change that knowledge. For example, we are talking about energy companies. Previously, energy could go all the way, but now energy is challenged by alternative energy sources, not just oil. It's probably not the answer. So, should we invest in electricity? Electricity is not the answer immediately because oil is still a part of the share, but the volume of use increases, so it must increase. This is a perspective we need to understand. So, should we invest in semiconductors? Companies have grown to trillions of dollars in value, trillions of dollars. Their market capitalization. The question is, the world's GDP is only 90 trillion. This has increased by 1, 2, 3, 4 of the world's GDP. Will it go that far again? It's not like that. It may have high profits, but it won't surpass world GDP, right? But then there will be new companies that are emerging, which we may not have heard of or known before. These are coming back and are companies that are not yet very large, but are preparing to become large companies in the future. These adjustments are being made.
And how do we identify those companies? Like we might look for a Facebook in the past, or a Tesla in the past. We have to see that the structure of the world's order and systems will have to be challenged, and adjustments will have to be made. First, the competition between China and America will become increasingly intense. But what happened at the end of 2025 is that Huawei, together with the Chinese government, said that China has its own technological path. We no longer need to rely on the West. We will create our own path. Therefore, what they announced is not a coincidence, but it is the strategy for 2015, 2015, which is called strategizing to reach a new world by about 2025, which was last year. And when the time came, they announced that this year is entering the era of new world technology. Therefore, we have to look at what will drive the new world. We will see that China will be driven by smart cities, which they have been doing for about 7-8 years, starting with what is called the kingdom of cameras. And in those cameras, there will be a backend. So, let's look at who makes the cameras. Yes, right? We see that every camera must have a seller. Right? How to do it. I went to scout companies. Yes. And took pictures. Oh, there are 2 companies, Hikvision and Huawei. And we see that these cameras have been around for over 10 years. Now they are releasing new cameras with a resolution of up to 8K. Yes. So, this means that the existing cameras, which are Full HD, will have to be upgraded to 8K because the dimension for night vision and so on will change, it will be clearer, right? So, we will see that if so, these cameras that we see everywhere in China will have to be changed, and there will be new sales, right? Ah, we look at it. Ah, these companies that make them. And we look further into the cameras. They can tell the people in the camera, in one frame, up to 200 people, or 200 cars, or 200 motorcycles, what their license plate is, what their ID card is. Yes. Real-time in one frame. For example, if one minute has 120 frames, right? If it's Full HD, then in 120 frames, each frame can identify up to 200. So, let's see which company makes AI. Yes. Right? They must be making real-time AI for all of China. And we have seen that Huawei is now using this system for smart airports. Yes. And in collaboration with Saudi Arabia to build smart cities. This will have to have increased and larger sales, right? I'm giving an example of cameras. Yes. Or cars. If we talked about 5 years ago, we would see Chinese cars all over the streets of Thailand, right? At first, I thought it wouldn't be that many, but now everywhere you look, it's all true. All Chinese cars, right? And the technology is advanced, and every year new technologies emerge, right? And they use the strategy of making cars cheap. The reason for making cars cheap is because technology is growing by leaps and bounds. Yes. Therefore, they will let people buy new cars in the next 3-4 years without worrying about the car's value. If it's cheap, it can be considered zero. This will allow technology to circulate continuously because new customers will be added every year from being the first group to come in. We see the automotive industry, and how many components, how many parts are in a car? Sensors, right? GPS, communication with the city. We will see that these are linked to smart cities and the planning of city systems and so on. Therefore, if we understand the journey of the world system, there are many opportunities. These companies are not familiar to us. Therefore, we say that this company has been around for 70-80 years, that is the third industrial revolution. Yes. But we are in the fourth industrial revolution, which is going to be a digital system to reach quantum. Yes. Ah, so let's look at which companies are doing quantum. What does the quantum system do? We will look for quantum companies, most of which we will not know because there are only 4-5 companies, and about 40 more are startups. Which are all small companies. But we will go back to AI companies. We can't afford to buy OpenAI. Can we get an exit? Is it too expensive? Something like that. It's too expensive.
And what about our country? Do we have new global stocks? It's quite difficult here because they are not transforming. Yes. I'm not talking about the government's vision. I'm talking about the vision of business owners. The transformation of companies into technology companies or into new industries is quite rare. Yes. This is scary. Where is the fear? The fear is that China does everything from upstream to downstream, reaching our hands. If one day we don't have it, they will replace us without us knowing. This is currently happening in many sectors, and the heavy ones will be retail and the automotive industry, which are about to be replaced without us knowing, and we cannot find a way out of this situation. Those who can truly transform right now in Thailand must be the banking industry. Yes. Which is the most advanced. Besides that, there are communication groups, 2 main groups that are transforming, but it's not easy. And we have seen the movement of major generals to do data center industries, smart city industries, and so on. This is a trend that is very rare and very scary if China comes in so quickly. Yes. So, it means that in Thailand, the groups that are likely to transform into new technologies, new global stocks, will be the banking and telecommunications groups, these two groups. These two groups lead. They lead, and they might have to be large ones that are ready, right? I think today the world opens opportunities for both big and small people. If small people come in and show their potential, they will have the capital to support it. But in Thailand, there is one problem: companies that set themselves up as startups are only solving small pain points. Yes. And they cannot turn it into a global scale. Therefore, new companies, we will see that it is quite difficult for them to reach tens of billions because they eat up small markets. But why can America reach large scales? Let's imagine when OpenAI opened ChatGPT, the download numbers reached 100 million downloads worldwide. Now it has reached 700-800 million downloads worldwide, right? It has become that it has reached the global scale and reached everyone without doing anything, just download the application. The world is in our hands, which is our mobile phone. Therefore, if we think in the system called global scale, there will be ready capital. But if we think about solving small pain points, the scale will be very low and not worth the investment. This is the problem I see why startups in our country have difficulty moving forward. Yes. So, choosing stocks in 2026, we will not generalize. No generalization. And we will have to choose on a per-company, per-country basis. Yes. So, is investing in country indices still possible in 2026? The US side, S&P 500, or other indices that have a lot of growth potential. The index that I give now, I don't want to take it as a general index. Yes. If we buy the S&P 500, there are about 20 companies that are pushing the index up. But there are about 480 other companies that are not pushing the index up. They might be pushing down, or they might be pulling down. They might even drag these down. For example, if we go directly into new technology industries, artificial intelligence industries, etc., we can hedge against risk by buying through dollar-cost averaging. Yes. Ah, in that we don't know what will happen, so we save monthly and so on. But another industry which I put aside. Yes. For example, the aerospace industry that is being discussed. Ah. This industry, when companies grow, they grow in 2 ways: growth by capital or growth by revenue. But if they grow by capital, they must expect revenue, right? But in some industries, they grow by capital. Yes. But revenue does not follow. Therefore, be careful that one day there will be a correction because revenue cannot keep up, and no one can increase capital for them all the time. So, on the US side, in which industries should new global stocks be considered, Professor? Now it's separated. For example, the Artificial Intelligence or AI industry is separated. The industry group that we will see from now on and will grow a lot is that this year we will enter what is called the century of humanoids. Yes. Today, we don't see humanoids in our daily lives. We only see them in clips and so on. But from now on, in the next 15 years, humanoids will enter our daily lives in one form or another. Yes. To enter our lives. Therefore, industries such as robots, humanoids, etc., will be another sector that will be a greenfield, which will grow. But we must also be careful about revenue because research costs are quite enormous. Ah. Yes. So, a moment ago we talked about the new world, and there should be 3 leaders in the new world. Professor, which leader do you give the most weight to? I think right now, the competition between America and the East is becoming increasingly intense, and it is a competition where the United States is at a disadvantage. Yes. Let me go back a bit. Yes. China and the United States are countries that seem not to get along, but they cannot do without each other. Yes. They cannot do without each other because when China opened its doors, there was cheap labor, and large industries in America moved their production bases to China, right? This led to what happened in America: the relocation of bases and increasing unemployment because companies wanted cheap products to sell in the United States or to reduce costs. It turned out that what has happened over time is that no one thought that China would become a partner that manufactures everything in the world and sells it to America and the rest of the world. It turned out that China sells to America, and Americans cannot produce. So, Americans have to buy Chinese goods. Yes. This made China a wealthy country from selling, contract manufacturing, and establishing its own companies in various forms, until it built its own brands. Now, as it grows larger, from selling only a few hundred million dollars, it has grown to billions. So, the dollars that China sells, makes a profit, and accumulates, they don't know what to do with them. So, they lend it to the United States by buying American bonds. Yes. Therefore, it goes in a cycle: Americans accumulate debt, and then buy Chinese goods. After buying Chinese goods, China becomes increasingly wealthy. So, they lend to America and then buy their own goods again. Yes. So, it turns out that if America does not buy Chinese goods, China will not lend. Yes. And if America does not buy Chinese goods, factories in China are at risk of bankruptcy. Yes. And we see this picture becoming clearer, right? It seems contradictory, but they cannot do without each other. They cannot do without each other. Yes. Therefore, after Trump's term, and including Biden's term, who opened a war with China. Yes. The result of this war is that when the COVID pandemic occurred, they saw that America could not produce anything. If there was a lockdown, Americans would have no products of their own, right? Therefore, what America must do is to move factories back to the country. It's not easy, is it? What they did was beyond imagination. Yes. How to make goods in America expensive? Yes. Expensive enough to make factories move back to produce and be profitable. What is the first thing to make factories expensive? It is to weaken their own currency. Yes. Because those who lose from the weakening dollar are the countries that lend to America. America's debt is reduced because its currency has weakened, which is different from our country. If our currency weakens, our debt increases because we borrow. But America is borrowing from others in dollars, and if the dollar weakens, they gain more because others have to exchange dollars at a higher price. This is different from our country in 1997. Therefore, when they weaken the dollar and impose high taxes, factories will start to reopen in America. But this is a long-term problem. They are looking at the next step: if so, China is moving fast in the future. If China is moving fast, they must be stopped by all means. Yes. So, they are stopping it by not sending high-level technology to China. But it turns out that the United States is the one that loses. So, what does China do? China knows that if it remains tied to the United States, it will surely be destroyed. Because if policies change overnight, the Belt and Road Initiative happened. And they managed to trade with countries all over the world: in the Middle East, India, Africa, and South America, to find alternative markets. Therefore, China can now do without the United States, but the United States cannot do without China because China must buy American bonds. So, China is doing this by having American bonds worth $1.3333 trillion. In 2012, it was the highest after the hamburger crisis. Now China has gradually reduced it to about $680 billion. Yes. This is the result that has caused the dollar to weaken, and China has been accumulating gold by selling these funds. So, the value of gold has increased, and they have expanded into countries around the world. And they are not doing it on a small scale. They are building cities, building smart metropolises. Now they are collaborating with, for example, the Emirates, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, trying to incorporate technology into cities to make them smarter. And in some European countries like Switzerland, and they are setting up communication systems for Kenya. This causes their products to spread out and sell technology to Pakistan, Iran, and so on, trading continuously. So, China is on its own path. Yes. But America cannot move forward. Yes. The path is becoming narrower and narrower. The path is becoming narrower and narrower, and they have to incur their own debt because factories are not built overnight, right? This is the big challenge that makes the United States quite difficult at this time. Yes. So, the future superpower might not be the United States anymore. There is a risk in the financial system. So, as we discussed earlier, how will the United States find a solution? It could be an extreme case. But if it's an extreme case, such as the dollar appreciating against gold by $10,000, or somewhere between that and $40,000, there will be something. I must say beforehand that I am not saying that the dollar will go to $40,000, but I am saying that there was a case, and I will bring this case in. It's a comparison. A comparison with the time of President Nixon. I will say that I set a target of 40,000. [Laughter] Like this. This is not it. Let's agree first. And this is an extreme case. If Mr. Trump or the next president uses this method, or declares war and transfers all the damages abroad. Yes. As England and France did before World War I and World War II, by shifting their debt to the people and selling it abroad as investments and so on. Yes. Looking at the world, which country is the most tired this year? It should be the United States. I would say the United States and the European countries. Yes. Which, recently, Europe has had 2-3 interesting things happening. For example, the fiscal policies of each European country, whether it's France, Italy, or Spain, are starting to find no way out. Another thing is that some governments are starting to issue war bonds. And most recently, last week, at the end of January, there was a discussion to establish a war bank by raising funds from European countries or NATO to support the war. It's like they have to prepare for something to cause a major war, or not? This is about when the time comes and they cannot find a solution to the problem. Yes. Yes. What about Thailand? Are you worried about the economy? Thailand lacks someone who truly strategizes for the country. The country used to be led by the private sector in various economic aspects. In the past 30 years, the private sector itself is now confused about where to go next, as we are a country that does contract manufacturing entirely, and domestic consumption is not that large. And we think about businesses incorrectly within our own country, which makes the business scale not grow, not grow like China, not grow like America. This is the problem that both the government and the private sector are not moving into the realm of new technology, new industries. New industries have the advantage of having high profits or margins. For example, look at NVIDIA, with a margin of 53%. We don't have such industries. This is the pain point in our country. And if we are going to build a data center industry in our country, which requires two things in large quantities: electricity and water. Some years we have a lot of water, some years we have little. If we have a lot, it's too much. If we have little, we have none. How will this balance the data center industry? This is a major vision issue for both the private sector and the government, where no one is driving or strategizing at all. And what's worse is that we don't have an education system to support it. We see China's 2015 policy, one of which is that for any technology in the world, China must have a department teaching it in universities. And the departments that are established must be ranked in the top 5 in every department that is a core technology of the future, whether it's stem cells, technology engineers, aerospace, or anything else. We see the latest results, with 2 universities surpassing Harvard to rank 1 and 2, and Harvard dropping to rank 3. But that is a strategy planned since 2015. Here, we still have teaching that I think books from my time or your time [Laughter] are still the same. The generation of my children or grandchildren is currently studying, and it's still the same old books. This is what makes people unable to see or create their own future. That's why talented Thai people go to grow in America, grow in England, or abroad. Yes.
What about the opportunities for the private sector, or the battlefield they face? In the current battlefield, we will only have opportunities if a major war breaks out. If a major war breaks out, it will cause problems with food production. Food production is something our country has quite a lot of, what we call quite abundant, and everyone can do it. This might be a medium or short-term opportunity if there is fighting. As we see, Singapore and China are preparing food reserves for at least 5 or 10 years. And we still have many countries that are not prepared. Therefore, this will be an opportunity because the battlefield of war will not be like in the past. This is what Thailand needs to prepare for when changes occur. Another very important change is that the world of technology in this era has changed. Both the United States and China. What is the current situation, and how will it pave the way for future investment for investors? In the United States, we must look at new industries. This is another reason why we should not invest in indices, because indices have quite a lot of old companies. The leader from now on will be the entry into the era of AI, which will go beyond AGI. Ah. AI means Artificial Super Intelligence. Therefore, today we have had the opportunity to use ChatGPT, we have had the opportunity to use it, we have had the opportunity to use many things. And there are many companies. Yes. But let us know that this is not AI. It is the infrastructure of AI. And it is not yet perfect. Therefore, we will see that this is what they call the infrastructure of the AI system that must be established. And another case is the design of images that AI makes. You Gen said that we can use Sora to make AI images. He said that if in the image, it can make people perform any action, such as bending down to pick up a glass to drink, then that is the same algorithm as making a robot or android do the same thing. Therefore, it is training AI on various images. And it uses the same algorithm. Yes. If one day we see Tesla, Tesla may no longer be a car manufacturing company. Tesla may be a company with an electric car manufacturing department that is developing into a self-driving car. On the American side, we will see that America is developing quite slowly. This is the reason why Elon Musk went to set up a factory in China, because China has a system for connectivity with satellites and what they call it, to perfectly control these self-driving cars. This is why he went to set up there in China and made the AI learning faster, which will benefit Tesla. But what Tesla is going to do next is to transfer human thoughts by controlling them with the brain, which may take some time for the Neuralink project. But what is interesting is their humanoid project, called the Optimus Project. The Optimus Project will be launched in mid-year, and the world may be shaken by how perfectly the Optimus Project can be done. Compared to the Optimus Project, it is Unit Company from China. Which will be robots that work more in the industrial sector. Normally, factories use robotic arms, right? But this will use robots and will enter our daily lives, and we may see robots walking on the streets, being housekeepers, caregivers. Therefore, the growth opportunity for humanoids will be quite rapid from now on. And another part that will grow very rapidly is the technology of self-driving cars in stages 4 and 5. Stage 4 is sitting behind the steering wheel but not driving. Both America and China are competing in this, but China is already moving to stage 5, which is a new car model, meaning no steering wheel. Stage 5 means no steering wheel, no driver. This has led to 2-3 companies that produce them, and they are startups that have already IPOed. These companies will be new companies, such as Pony.ai and ZOK. On the Chinese side, they are listed on the Nasdaq stock market. Yes. This will be another aspect that is coming during the transition period. And the platform that will enter ASI. Let's look at the definition of ASI, which is Artificial Super Intelligence. It will reach a point where it will be smarter than all humans on Earth combined. Yes. Therefore, humanoids, all AI, will be smarter than all humans on Earth combined. If AGI is smarter than humans. Yes. But not yet all humans on Earth combined. But this will think faster. Therefore, chips and so on will have to be developed further. And China and America have started to go their separate ways, with China being able to move faster by making what is called photonic chipsets. These are chips that are not electrons like Nvidia makes, but these are light, photonic. They can process about 1,000 times faster than electron chipsets and are much more energy-efficient. And this is what we are entering in the early stage, until 2030, it will start to be in our daily lives, like ChatGPT. Yes. 2030 is only a few years away. It's not just a few years. Everything from now on will be very fast. It will be very fast, and by 2030-35, we will enter the early stage of the ASI era, the Artificial Super Intelligent era, which will make the delivery of goods, the platform for management, and office work, and control, develop much faster and more accurately, and with higher data storage. But on the American scale, it will be small. Because on the American side, companies will think, as they say, only for their own projects. Yes. But on the Chinese side, they can combine all of them. We must see this picture first. Huawei is not a public company, but a company that works with the government, the central government of China. And Huawei will be the research center. Their condition is that they are like a conductor, and each musical instrument is each company. And they can bring each company together and direct them in the same direction. They are the ones who research and work with large telecom companies. But in America, it's different. Everyone does their own thing. I once asked about the transformation of Citibank when I studied in America. I asked them, will Citibank do 10 sub-apps? Yes. Tens will be a super app, and in their VCAT, there will be about 8,000 apps in it, making it an ecosystem. They said America cannot do it. The law does not allow it. Therefore, Citibank can only plug into various apps. This makes the development of both countries go in different directions. Yes. China focuses on the ecosystem, while America focuses on individual growth and joint business. What is the problem? For example, if the same company has 2 departments, it's complicated. Yes. And for example, to schedule a meeting, to do something together, it becomes even more difficult. This is the reality for working people. It is difficult. For example, Elon Musk has SpaceX. Yes. It has a satellite system through SpaceX. And SpaceX does not have a mobile phone. Huawei uses the Chinese government's satellites and can connect to satellites in its Mate series, from Mate 60 to Mate 80 this year. Yes. Mobile phones can connect to satellites anywhere in the world. For example, in Kenya, they don't need to install internet towers or mobile phone towers. They only use satellite connection. The question is, this will be a challenge for telecommunication companies worldwide: if one day infrastructure is no longer needed, and we only need to go through satellites, will the concession model or the working model remain the same? This is another perspective. And another perspective is the operating system. In America, we are already troubled. Do we choose Windows or Apple iOS? But after this, we will be even more troubled: do we have to choose Harmony? Yes. So, if we trade with China, within 2 years, before a major war, the Chinese government says that all operating systems in the Chinese government, in the country, must be 100% domestically produced. It is predicted that it will be changed to Huawei's Harmony operating system because it is designed as an ecosystem. Then, it will be a problem for countries like ours. Will we use Windows or Apple's iOS, or will we use China's Harmony, or perhaps both? This will be a major technological issue that we will face. Yes. But this major change in the next 3-5 years is also full of investment opportunities. Full of opportunities. Both in terms of investment and in terms of buying companies that are not yet large companies. Yes. And they are still very small companies, ready to become large companies, such as quantum companies. Previously, the company's value was only around $100 million. For example, Wave or something like that. It turned out that over time, the world has expanded its business, more customers from $100 million to tens of billions. The upside will be greater and faster, while buying a trillion-dollar company, it's not easy to go, right? There are many opportunities. First. The second opportunity is that we can create our businesses on these new worlds even more. If we open ourselves up to learning and finding these opportunities. Yes. What market capitalization or size of stocks or businesses should we buy to get good returns and efficiency? The first question is, is it on the path to the future world? Yes. First, if we understand that it is on the path to the future world, such as we discussed that it will go to quantum, then let's study how quantum companies operate, how they do business, because it is something new, right? So, when we see that quantum is becoming something new, the companies are small, so they are companies waiting to grow. Should we prepare to invest in quantum companies or not? This is another point, or those we mentioned earlier, self-driving car companies, or human robot companies, such as Tesla or other companies. There will be companies like this that are being added, which we have never known before. And it is the direction of the future world. This will be an opportunity, or we can take their business and open it in our country. Yes. This is even more important. Yes. So, there are opportunities for both investors and entrepreneurs. In this new world. Yes, yes. And their platform can be used worldwide. Therefore, our being in our country and adapting their business opportunities to each other, and sharing opportunities, is very important from now on. Yes. Listening to this, it seems that most of the opportunities are in China. I think China is coming as an ecosystem. But America is coming in pieces. Yes. So, it depends on the suitability for each person's design, how they will design it. But if it comes to companies that use the most advanced technology in the world, then America must be given credit. In the next 5 years, because they have attracted a lot of top talent from around the world. But for companies that are in the ecosystem, it's not too bad. Companies with growth potential must be given to China. The whole world is competing between these two sides. Yes. And will there be any side that is far ahead, like running at full speed? It's hard to think about surpassing now. Because China says it will go its own way and not compete with the United States. Yes. So, America has no competitors. [Laughter] Right now. Yes. As investors, we have to seek opportunities worldwide. Yes. And both countries have the same policy: they are both global scale. So, they think that the global market is their customer. That is what is important. Even though we are facing the risks of change in this new world, it is also full of many opportunities. We had the opportunity to talk with the professor. Does the professor have any further warnings that there are other risks that investors and entrepreneurs should be aware of in 2026? I think it is a year, it is a period, because it will not be just this year. It will be an opportunity for us to know what the crisis we are facing is. If we know what it is, we will know what the opportunity is. Yes. If we understand, I am not saying it is scary, but since it is the dynamics of the world, and we cannot change the destiny of the world, then the importance is that we must understand what is happening. And we must not act like a football fan, cheering and waiting for it to happen before believing. But as a strategist myself. Let's imagine we are going to build a hotel. We imagine the hotel on the day it opens. But most people see the land and say the land is overgrown and empty. What can be done? So, a strategist must see the hotel on its grand opening day on the empty land. Yes. Therefore, we must act as someone who can see the empty land and see it as a hotel on its grand opening day. That is a strategist. Therefore, most people who get only small returns and face immense risks are those who buy on the grand opening day and see it as a beautiful hotel. But those who become rich are those who buy that piece of land and build a beautiful hotel. So, if we see that this is the early stage of the fourth industrial revolution, we look at how the fourth industrial revolution will grow to AGI, ASI, and how the infrastructure system will change from digital to quantum. The matter of SHI, from electron chips to photonic chips, how are they related? The platforms involved, from now to the future, will be different. Facebook is becoming a thing of the past. Why did Elon Musk dare to buy Twitter and turn it into XAI? He must have a way of thinking about how to adapt, right? Therefore, those who will succeed in investing must be people who see the future, not people who see the future when it is already here and then say, "Oh, I believe it." That will be too expensive. So, step 1, we must see this first. We must tell ourselves to see this first. Step 2, we must learn what the situation is, what is the crisis, and what is the opportunity in the crisis. Or we can separate ourselves and do something unrelated to both the crisis and the opportunity. We create opportunities on our own path. This can happen during this time. Therefore, news is just an impact, it is an activity in the world. But if we know what is happening, what are the dynamics of the world, we will see that opportunities are everywhere. And the opportunities we see are the biggest in 100 years. We will not have such opportunities often in the next 10 years. Yes.
And what is important is building confidence and aligning our minds to go in the right direction. Does the professor have any advice? There are many stimuli on social media and elsewhere, and it's like hypnotizing us. So, we should take a break from watching sometimes, and sometimes not. Let time pass. But we should do what we are interested in and check it occasionally. But we should use that time to do what we need to do. This will not have much impact on the incoming stories. For example, I recommended buying and holding gold. It turned out that in the past 2-3 days, it dropped a lot. I was indifferent because I said from the beginning that the cost was below 30,000. Many people are still at a cost of 18,000. So, no matter how much it drops, it won't reach that. Yes. Do you understand? No matter how much it drops, it won't reach that, so let it go. But if you want to buy more, buy more. It's not a big deal. But when we look and say, "What happened? It's the worst." And there will always be words like "bubble burst." So, this bursts, that bursts, this is Black Monday, Black Tuesday. We see it often. In fact, it's good news, isn't it? Because we can't buy it in time, and it has already gone up a lot. It comes down for us to buy again. We just need to adapt. We are not in a difficult situation, so we will see everything. Yes. This is the map, and it is an opportunity in 100 years, which we must seize this golden opportunity during this time, under the circumstances of World War III, which is not happening due to fighting, but due to changes in various factors. Today, I would like to thank the professor very much for honoring us and for painting a map for investment for us today. Thank you. Thank you. [Music]