Transcription
Welcome back to The Young Turks. I'm Ana Kasparian, and uh there is a lot of confusion in regard to where we currently stand in the negotiations uh between the United States and Iran. Many Americans want an end to this war. They want the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and a lot of people got their hopes up over this past weekend where it appeared as though uh Trump was close to making a deal with the Iranians, and then everything fell apart. So, what is actually happening right now?
Well, fortunately here to discuss this story with us is Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center. He stepped down from the Trump administration following the start or the launch of the war against Iran, and he's here to answer some questions today. Uh Joe, thank you so much for joining us.
>> Thanks for having me. Great to be with you.
>> You and I haven't spoken uh directly yet, but I really appreciate uh your accessibility, how many interviews you've been doing since stepping down from your role because it has been enlightening. A lot of people are curious about what's really happening behind the scenes with the Trump administration. So, why don't we start off with a question that's been, you know, front of mind since this past weekend. So, these negotiations, the alleged negotiations between the United States and Iran seem to have kind of fallen apart. Uh some believe that the Israelis sabotage peace yet again, uh but I actually question whether the Trump administration is negotiating in good faith. And the reason why I say that is because Axios, Barak Ravid specifically, keeps reporting again and again and again that, you know, Trump and Netanyahu are just at each other's throats. You know, they had a tense phone call, and there's a big disagreement. And then you turn over to Israeli media, and Channel 14 News had quoted uh Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at uh the Misgav Institute, who told the Israeli press this, "By leaking the story about an alleged serious crisis between Netanyahu and Trump, um the Iranians may find themselves completely surprised by the timing of the next military strike. The leak, meaning the leak to Barak Ravid, created a sense of disagreement between the two leaders and positioned Trump as the leader giving diplomacy another chance despite heavy pressure from Netanyahu. Trump understands very well who the Iranians are." So, basically he's making the argument that it was all a, like it was all meant to trick everybody, including the Iranians, as the US prepared to do a surprise strike on Iran yet again, which they did carry out near the Strait of Hormuz killing four Iranian soldiers. So, what do you make of all of this? What's actually going on here?
>> Well, it's a, it's definitely kind of a chaotic situation. The fundamentals though haven't changed. I mean, the Iranians are in control of the Straits of Hormuz. They've demonstrated that they obviously because it's their backyard they can outlast us. We continue to say that we want diplomacy while baking in poison pills to the negotiating demands saying that the Iranians have to give up enrichment, which we know basically kills any hope of the of the deal with the Iranians. We know that until we actually restrain the Israelis, whether we admit it or not, that the Israelis will do everything they can to make sure the negotiations aren't successful. And the the Israelis have been very up front with us basically from the beginning. I mean, they want to take down the regime. They don't care how long it takes. So, the fundamentals with the Israelis haven't changed at all. If anything, they know that their their time is limited especially as we head in towards the midterms. So, unless we actually start taking away some of the military support that we give them that enables them to go on the offense. I mean, we just have to be realistic and know that Israel's going to operate on, you know, in accordance with their own best interest. So, I kind of think a lot of what we're seeing unfortunately is is theater. And I say that and I do hope that everything that President Trump says about trying to get a deal, I I hope that's true, and I hope he proves us wrong, and I hope he actually does get a deal. But, I I think right now the Iranians are saying that they still control the the big fundamentals, and they're leaving Trump with an the only option right now he has unless he decides to leave, like I've been advocating for, is to escalate militarily. A lot of the hardliners in Iran, I think, want that. The Israelis want that, but Trump hasn't so far because I think deep down inside President Trump knows that actually there is no military solution. He He tried that for the first iteration of the war, and it didn't work. So, until President Trump kind of snaps out of it and and sees that, you know, basically he's being given really bad advice by probably some of his own advisers and by the Israelis, and just leaves, we're going to be stuck in this stalemate, which I think is very dangerous because, you know, we're one missile or we're one strike away from from losing some of our troops, and then we're going to be in an escalation cycle once again where we can't leave under fire. Right now, I think he should take the opportunity while there is a ceasefire to just declare victory and simply leave, reset the negotiation that way.
>> Okay, you just said so many interesting things that I want to ask you about. Okay, so I totally agree with your assessment in regard to Trump should just leave. There is no winning this war. But, you said that, you know, Iran would want an escalation. Why do you believe that?
>> Cuz right now militarily they're winning. So, so two things. Number one, because we killed a lot of the moderates in that country, and I know a lot of, you know, our critics will get mad when I say the former Ayatollah was some kind of a moderate. I don't mean moderate in the sense of like one of our neighbors moderate here in America. I mean moderate by Iranian Iranian standards. He was making the Iranians observe a strict escalation ladder in regards to the proxies attacking us. He held the prohibition on the development of a nuclear weapon. We killed him really early on. The Israelis were diabolically smart in getting us on board with doing that strike because they basically got us on board of taking out the moderates. Several of the other moderates were killed. So, now the IRGC and a lot of the hardliners who've been advocating for more aggression against us and and the Israelis for quite some time, they're now in power and they're saying like, "Hey, are we going to sit, you know, and play this negotiating game with the Americans and wait for them to attack us for the third time during negotiations? Let's hit them." Also, the Iranian regime, you know, they were having some internal strife before the the the conflict kicked off in February. However, since we killed the Ayatollah and hit Iran, they've had a rally around the flag effect with their people. So, the hardliners in Iran, just like the hardliners in Israel, and unfortunately just like the hardliners here in our country, they all they all want the war to resume because it benefits them. So, I I think that's what we have to be wary of right now. That's why I say Trump should get us out right now because one of those hardliners could simply decide to restart the war and, you know, God forbid kill some of our troops and then we can't leave under fire. While he can say that he can that we're winning, he should leave right now.
>> So, you know, it's it's interesting because right now the United States and particularly Donald Donald Trump and the Republican Party are getting nothing beneficial out of this war. Nothing. I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is closed right now. Uh the economy is already roiling as a result of that. It's only going to get worse the longer the strait is closed.
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>> So, Trump seems to have every incentive to walk away, and he's one of these rare people who's able to, you know, say that he won, right? Like, declare victory even in the face of defeat, and people will believe it. So, I think he could totally pull that off and just end this. But, he's not doing that. So, the real question is, why? Is it because Look, some people genuinely think, "Oh, well, the Israelis have something on him. Maybe it's blackmail." Others argue that he's worried about being assassinated by the Israelis. Those are some of the more hyperbolic allegations. But, other allegations might have to do with, you know, something that we're unaware of, right? Like, maybe Trump genuinely thinks he could get a deal. But, what is your read of it? Why do you think Trump is allowing the Israelis to essentially dictate the terms of this war, how long it lasts, and whether or not it ends?
>> You're right, and that's the question. I mean, because right now for President Trump to stay in the situation that he knows is bad, that he's not benefiting from, America's not benefiting from, smart money would say that he would just pull out, and like you said and I said, just kind of, you know, project that he had won. So, the question is, why is he doing this? And and my best guess is it is a combination of there is an unknown factor there, and I will be accused of, you know, being called a conspiracy theorist, but saying that, hey, we should at least look at the assassination attempts against President Trump, the breaches in his security, what happened with Charlie Kirk. We should factor those things in. I'm not saying it's 100%, you know, the case, but maybe there also is something else that's that's unknown that I'm not sure of. Or really the Israelis did a very, very good job of profiling American politics and profiling President Trump's psychology, and they still have this echo chamber around him that I described in my resignation letter, where you have higher-level Israeli officials that are engaging directly outside of official channels with American officials that are in Trump's inner circle. You've got the media echo chamber that he consumes of Fox News, the New York Post, you know, Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, et cetera. You've got the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, the pro-Israel think tank that's staffing a lot of his national security decisions that are saying, "No, Mr. President, you can't leave." You know, they're playing to his ego and saying that you're you're historic, you're the only one that can take down this regime that's been in power for the last 47 years. I I understand that, and I think that makes sense to a certain degree. However, I I do think President Trump is smart enough to see that he's, again, not getting anything out of this. So, I'm kind of left going back to our original question of, you know, what what the hell is he doing? Because I do believe that this is actually out of characteristic for President Trump.
>> Yeah, definitely. And I think that there's Look, I don't think you're being a conspiracy theorist. I think that there's something bigger here that the general public is totally unaware of, and that's what's keeping him in this war. Uh Look, the other thing that really stood out to me today in the press conference that he held was a statement that he made about Oman, which we have absolutely no problem with whatsoever. But Oman has been working with Iran in trying to figure out how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. And so, here's what Trump had to say in response to a question about the strait, and then he issues a threat toward Oman. Take a look.
>> Iran wants control of the Strait of Hormuz. Would you accept a short-term deal that allows Iran and Oman to control the strait? And would they have to open it immediately or would you be open to that happening over a period of time?
>> No, the strait's going to be open to everybody. It's uh
>> And who would control it?
>> It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters and uh Oman will behave just like everybody else. So, we'll have to blow them up.
>> Okay, I just I'm not an expert on military anything related to the military. So, I want to just put that on the table and let everyone know I'm ignorant of this. But that statement, first of all, the threat toward Oman I personally think is totally unhinged. But also the statement overall I find to be a little bit unhinged because it's one thing to make a claim like that when you have the military capability to force open the Strait of Hormuz. But my read of this is that we do not have the military capacity to do that. Maybe I'm incorrect. Can you give us some, you know, clarity on it?
>> If there was a military solution, President Trump would say to Secretary Hekseth, "Make it so." And it would be done. Although I think President Trump understands that any tactical victory we have would be very short-lived. Other Otherwise again, he he would just execute it. Look, the the Iranians don't need much in terms of technology to be able to really hamper the commerce on the Strait of Hormuz. We we've known this now for for decades. So, when when President Trump I I had to go back and listen to that clip several times cuz I didn't know if he misspoke and and clearly he didn't. Um well, this kind of actually goes back to what we were just talking about. When I hear President Trump speak like that, I think it's very much out of character. Uh Trump can be hyperbolic, but usually it's kind of in a jokey, over-the-top kind of trolly way. When it comes to diplomacy and and high-level negotiations, I don't I haven't heard him use talk like this with, you know, a partner country or a friendly country, even a country that he respects. I know he respects the the the Omanis. I I've never heard that before. I've heard him be very very measured before. I've heard him even chastise aids before for using harsh language with, you know, a potential trade partner. So, I kind of read that as Trump being very frustrated. He's frustrated with a lot of the people who are noticing that he's out of really good options and who are saying the things that we're saying like, "Mr. President, why don't you just leave?" And for some reason he can't leave. And now he's lashing out at at many people who used to support him, myself included. I understand why he lashed out at me cuz of the way I I left the administration. So, I understand that. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie, there's there's all these folks, Tucker Carlson, there's all these people who who were core Trump supporters now who are saying, "Mr. President, what what the hell are you doing?" And he's lashed out at them. Maybe the Omanis have said something to him behind closed doors. They they more than likely have because the Omanis for a very long time they they've been like the Swit- zerland, the Geneva almost of the Middle East. And and they've helped us out a lot with back channel diplomacy. So, when he says that, I I I don't think it's necessary it does come across as being very unhinged, but I think he's just frustrated with the situation.
>> Yeah, I mean, I would be frustrated with the situation as well, but, you know, I would maybe avoid sidelining DNI Gabbard who has stepped down from her position when she did the threat assessment and said that Iran is not building nuclear weapons, is not a threat to the United States.
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