Transcription
All right, guys. Welcome back to the channel. It's Jason Pazino with tiainvestor.com. Today, we're looking at the brutal path to the Bitcoin low in preparation for that transition into the bull market. If you haven't already, hit the like button and subscribe to the channel. Plus, congratulations to all of the Spanish viewers or Spanish supporters after winning the soccer World Cup.
Let's go straight into the data today. looking at Bitcoin and this brutal low that we've been discussing for many many months now because this is typically what happens at the bottom stage in preparation for the next bull market leg or potentially a macro rally in this trend. Get to that in a sec. What I'm going to do is start with the bullish sentiment and indicators and then we'll start to go a little bit more into the the bearish stuff because at the end of the day this is a transition from one phase of a market into another. There's no exact event that is going to tell us that this thing is going to flip on the day. There is often these signals that we get and you just keep compounding those until we see the full-fledged bull market take control. And so when we're looking at the markets, it's basically a process rather than a singular event. And uh yeah, I don't I don't mind starting with the bullish news today because well, the run of the bulls in Spain and so on. We got a nice day here.
So, we're looking at the first thing is the volume. So, Bitcoin, as with every other cycle, we've seen the volume begin to die off into these brutal lows in preparation for the bull market, where the volume begins to flip from the bears, the down leg into the bulls, which is the uptrend. 2022 was no exception. We could see a lot of that volume coming in on the down leg. So, a lot of the red bars here, big volume, big volume. One here in particular at the low, but when you're comparing those to the up weeks of the downtrend, the reds have it. The downtrend is is really, really strong there. So, at the lows though, we start to get this transition from the selling action really pushing the volume down to the bullish action beginning to hold the price up better, support the price better than what it has done through that entire bare market. And that's where we've seen the transition form and then like it comes out of nowhere. You get the volume pick up and then the volume break the current trend. And that was what happened in 2022. Got a couple of diagonals there and the market basically broke through that on volume. Basically knocking down the wall of selling.
And in 2018 2019, similar sort of thing. We had the lows coming in Feb, April, June, rally in July, corrections August, and then there was the breakdown into this final low. But notice this bar here in December where the volume began to pick up. And you also saw it late November, and it just held the market up a little better than what it had done previously with that extra layer of volume coming in. The bar in November uh sorry December was a really important one because there was increase in volume and it began to break that downtrend. What followed was the big tell that there was going to be a higher low and then the strength began to come back. It took ages. It was brutal. Volume you could see was dropping off. But the difference with that drop off is the size of the bars. And that's where I talk about the average range of the market showing us that uh we're basically through that bottom brutal stage where no one is around. It's like everyone has vanished from the space and then again like 2022 without warning bam the bulls break down the wall increase in volume and they the price breaks out and that begins to bring more and more people back as the volume increases and the the interest begins to increase.
Then in 20 top in 13 14 bare market 15 accumulation then 16 this was a really really long one as well very brutal. You could see the lows begin to form. This was through that October base November spike. Ultimately the market did go lower but that was the ultimate accumulation uh before the price then broke higher again. So look, I draw a straight line through that, you've really got this beautiful bottom accumulation breakout with a test of the highs and that's the accumul what happened to be the reaccumulation zone breakout on volume. You can see the volume happened here again, but that was at the the top held it out more massive accumulation and then a nice consolidation above those highs. But in each of the cases, you can see the volume on the up bars beginning to increase.
So, where are we now? We're in July. And are we seeing that yet? Not exactly. We're not exactly seeing that yet. It's attempting to. We've had a couple of them through the March period and then the April period, but ultimately we haven't got that final confirmation yet that the bear has transitioned from the bear to the bull. But we are getting these signs of the low. So, these have been relatively quiet weeks. Possibly everyone's on summer break and no one's really that interested in the market and we do have a bit of volume to the downside except that volume has now started to uh slow down. And that week in June that we discussed the transition late June, early July, that was one of the first signs that we were that we were seeing a change from the macro bear to the mac potentially macro bull. So, we still need a few more. That's the first of the uh the bullish outtakes here. Looking at that volume.
Oh, while we're on it, let's look at the uh the monthly data. And this will be a little quicker cuz obviously there's less months for July. Still 12 days to go and the volume is relatively low. Even if this volume was to double and we have less than half of the amount to half of the month to go, it still wouldn't be a very huge month. It's still not a massive month of volume. Therefore, I think there's still further for the market to go either sideways, best case scenario here, or at least test the lows again because we just haven't seen the influx of buying come through. You can see the volume drop off into the highs, which is a sign of a weak market beginning to form. That was uh 2025, of course, into that high. And again, in 2021, you can see the volume. It's pretty much low compared to that first move into the high, showing a sign of weakness. And then we began to layer on more of the uh indicators that told us that the market was probably turning from a bull at the time late last year into a bear. Another interesting point here while I'm on it is July was pretty much the end of the greed. So that's a nice little segue into the sentiment now that we shift uh from the bullish signs into the bearish signs. I will come back to one more bullish, but I think that's better left later because that goes into the AI trades that we're looking at the AI sector and how that market has been coming down, right?
But looking at Bitcoin and the market sentiment, we're seeing some relatively good signs here that at least the lows have begun to hold as I've been covering with you guys for many, many months now. Like last cycle, let's put a few lines on here. The cycle low formed around extreme fear and the extreme fear was into the single digits. It rallied out of the single digits and then found a base at a higher low. So the market was less fearful of the lower prices essentially looking like divergence divergence in the feeling of the market compared to the price. Not worried about these prices coming down. But what you also saw was that the price corrections were getting smaller. They weren't as severe as the prior corrections. Now, here we are in 2026 at the next Bitcoin basing pattern thereabouts and very similar. Look at these lows in February and March on the sentiment. So, extreme fear, single digits. I've got the line there so you can see it very quickly with your eyes. Under 10. Now, this time when the price went slightly lower to 57,000 compared to 60, the sentiment was slightly higher. So, the same thing happening again. And that's what I've been covering week after week. That's the importance of being consistent with your trading and investing. Speaking of consistency, check out the reports that are coming your way this week. Uh today we or tomorrow I should say, we have the 18-year cycle report looking at the 18 economic cycle, real estate, and a bit on silver. Now, later this week, we'll have the stock market and Bitcoin report, but you can find this in the video description.
So, in regards to consistency, markets have been very consistent with the signs and the and the indicators that we're seeing some sort of transition from the macro bull into the macro bear. In terms of consistency, the market's been very consistent with those indicators that have shown up through each of the cycles. But it's just a matter of tracking those day by day, week by week, because you start to see multiple of these begin to stack, and that's where you get that transition form. They typically form through a brutal period where most people have tuned out. They're watching other things, the World Cup, whatever it is they're doing, going on summer holidays, not in front of their screens, right? But these are where those opportunities form just like they did in 2022, like they did in 2018, in 2019. And I think we could be in in stall for one of those in in 2026.
So the monthly patterns were an interesting one whereby July usually did the opposite to June when you look at it from a probability perspective. June red July is typically green that red and green red and green red and green again red and green and so on. Now the opposite was also true. If June was green, July was red. June where we got June green, July red. Now, there was about three occasions out of the last 14 or 15 that we've seen that they did the same thing. So, three out of 14 were not opposites, whereas 11 out of 14. So, pretty good probabilities that we would see that happen. And that's possibly because you've got the dump into June, you got a base forming, and then the market rebounds into July. Not to say that the low is in, but you'd typically get a bit of a rally after such a significant down move. Now, if we start to see that rally hold, well, then there's signs that we've got a base forming. And that's basically why I'm sharing a lot of the signals and following up day by day, week by week. So, monthly pattern seems to be playing out just as each of the prior years. So, good thing we've got that happening as well. And this plays into the stock market pattern into Q3 of 2026, the old midterm years and the correction. I'll get to that in a minute and how that correction could form because we're seeing some massive signs with this next signal on some of the AI semiconductor stocks which have shown up to be unfortunately 50 to 80% corrections once the signal shows. And in the case of Micron, it is there now on a weekly chart. So that's not a great sign there for Micron. I'll get to that in a minute because I think it plays in with NASDAQ and how all of these markets come together with Bitcoin showing just a touch of strength here compared to the NASDAQ.
That signal is the three bar signal. Often confused I see in the comment section with three black crows or three white soldiers, which would be the same signal in reverse if you're seeing it from a low. They're very, very similar, but they're not the same. And that's the key point. These ones here just look at where the opening and closing prices are because that's typically what candlestick patterns and uh technicians using candlesticks look at. But as a a GAN technician technician GN that we are, we look at the highs and the low prices because they give us extra insight into the bars themselves and how these patterns typically play out. There is an importance to the price high and low. A candlestick technician would look at January 2026 and say it's red. It is red, but we see it as an outside bar because you have a higher high and a lower low. The signal is the three bars whether there's up or down from significant turning points. So far, we have a significant turning point as a cycle low and we have seen higher highs, higher lows, not the strongest because you've also have the volume falling. You have the bars tightening here. So, you're getting a smaller range to the upside which shows a little bit of weakness into the buying action. More selling stepping in. Nonetheless, the signal is still there. And we uh the way we see it is that there is going to be a longer hold here above the low where the signal begins from compared to the prior uptrend. That's the idea of the signal to begin with. But then there is added layers of um uh filters to give you the further strength and weakness. Right? So far that has happened. So the signal has worked yet again because we now have a higher high and the time from the low to the top is longer. Therefore, we're getting some further strength in the uptrend. Even if this is not the final load, you can still see there is more buying taking place than what there was prior in that move higher.
Now, we've seen it from the tops many, many times with three bars down, giving us the sign that the market wants to come down and crash 30 plus%. It happened in 2025, it happened in late 24, early 25, happened in early 2024, it happened in 2021 from all of these significant all-time high prices. So on the short term, we have the sign there that says the market wants to hold up for a little bit longer than what it has done previously because we saw a strong buying action taking place from the low. That's what that signal is. However, we haven't seen an overbalance yet. And the overbalance is to the upside for uh a price above $81,000 longer than October. So it's got to get above that price in the first week of October. That's the overbalance that we're looking for to confirm or at least add to the confirmation that this would be the low. Otherwise, we've got further to test to the uh to the downside. I'll come back to the three bar rule. That's how it's used. That's the importance of it because that is showing a weakness in some of the AI semiconductor stocks.
Now, stable coins, uh sentiment we've looked at and timing. Let's cover timing. Timing essentially we've got 8 to nine months down from the high. July, as we've said, usually a rally and then a correction through August, September 2022 was pretty similar. Let me grab that here. Okay, so August rallied, correction, September, correction late September, correction mid-October, which was very similar to the S&P 500. Then there was a rally and a correction into November. So, we're still looking at late quarter 3, early quarter 4. And again, same sort of thing. Even in the bull markets, quarter 3 likes to have a correction. September 21, nice solid low here. This was when Evergrande in China was showing signs that it was going to collapse. Markets went crazy. 2021, still a correction there in Q3 and then the market took off for quarter 4. In 2020, even in a bull market, there was still a correction. Look at the rally in August, correction into September. It attempted another correction early October into a higher low, mind you, but that's the strength of the bull market. The market's trying to correct at the normal seasonal times, but the market is saying there is far more strength in this move than I guess what the seasonality would uh would typically show, which then shows you the signal we're going to see higher prices. Just how far that's obviously up to the market, but then you get the breakout. Okay, that's into quarter 4. Now I can keep going back time and time again. Look at the low in October there. Lows in September. Tried to rally in quarter 4 and um you know we corrected into March. So time-wise, seasonality seems to be playing out yet again with the the movement to the upside.
And stable coins stable coins are also showing a sign of basing here unless they break down. So this is the combination of USDT plus USDC. We've got a base forming around 11 12% and the weakness showing that uh it seems like maybe a little bit more risk wants to come back into the market, but it's not sure yet because we don't have the breakdown. Remember this chart going up, which is bullish for stable coins, bearish for Bitcoin and of course cryptos. And if the chart's going down, well then that's bullish for Bitcoin and cryptos and bearish for stable coins. Unless everyone is selling out of stable coins and moving into fear. So the combined stable coin chart holding ground at the moment and it's similar to what happened in the last cycle where we had the breakout and then it was able to hold ground, hold ground, have a couple of attempts higher and fail. If we see this begin to rally off uh what 10 and a half, 11 or where we are here at 11.7% and fail again around the 13s, possibly a touch higher if we were to see it around the prior cycle tops at 14.8 15%. And not go further, that could be our sign that we're seeing the cycle low also beginning to form and money coming out of stable coins and possibly back into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies through that period. Okay, so that's a look at the stable coins.
Oh, and also the exchange volume has found a new cycle low. So, more money has been leaving uh the exchanges like what has happened in the prior cycles. $20 billion 7-day moving average. Last cycle, look at that. In November and December, the average volume was heading lower. However, it finally found a base when Bitcoin was beginning to break higher. It was in its uh reaccumulation range between roughly 20 and $30,000. So, this is a slightly more lagging indicator, but it's sign it's a sign that we are still heading into that low for the time being until we begin to get that base. That'll give us that next confirming signal. Probably one of the later confirming signs.
Now, what about the stock markets? Well, for the NASDAQ, obviously tech stocks and Bitcoin has been trading a little bit like these tech stocks, putting in tops just before the major tech stocks, your MAG7s, and then they've all been coming down together. Uh NASDAQ just found a new weekly low for the last nearly uh 3 months. The last time it was this low, it was April 2026. So, we've now seen the next lowest weekly closing price since the April 27th week. We haven't still broken the low here at 28,000 points. So, it's still in a trading range here. Maybe we go on a little bit of a rally over the coming weeks in quarter 3 before a correction. But ultimately, that is a new fresh low on the weekly close. And for the S&P, like we said last week, there were signs that uh the S&P was looking a touch weaker here as well as the sentiment was quite bullish on the highest weekly closing price, which then always is a great fade on the double AI sentiment survey. Market then corrected last week and closed lower again, but it's in a slightly stronger position here. So yeah, still trading around highs. Nothing to say that this stock market cycle is complete and it's all over. I don't think you're going to get a bell rung at the top here, but what I'm seeing as we said from May now, so just over two months, there were signs that this market was slowing down, at least consolidating the gains that it had out of the war low in March, April. So, I think that's where we're sitting here for the S&P 500. However, as I said, for the NASDAQ, just on a slightly weaker side here.
Now coming full circle into the AI semiconductors uh checking Micron and the weakness within the AI and semiconductors. If we're to see this continue to fall, I think you're probably going to see further downside for for Bitcoin. But the uh let's say that the bullish sentiment or the bullish signal here is that Bitcoin has been trading relatively well. Although not breaking highs, it's still holding up and grinding higher. While AIs have been getting absolutely smashed, MU is down roughly 30 or 40%. Intel is down from its all-time highs now about 37%. AMD holding up the best of of those three, down 21% from the high. And I'm looking at it specifically on this chart to show us the three bar signal. And in this case, we're watching it from the all-time highs. So in Micron's case, there is the red arrow. That is the all-time high. And the signal from the swing pro. So this is looking at lower highs, lower lows. That that's what these red arrows are for. Show one, two, three red weeks. Lower highs or lower lows. The last time we saw that from an all-time high was not here. Therefore, the market was still strong and headed higher. The last time we did see it was back in 2024. That's from an all-time high of 156.
Now, the point of me looking at Micron, as I said, with the a uh AI and semiconductor stocks is that if we continue to see weakness here, this may be part of what leads Bitcoin down into quarter 3 or early quarter 4 that leads to that cycle low. And what I'm trying to find here is a sign or are signs that there are that there is a possibility that we're going to see AI the bubble just continue to to soften here. Maybe not completely burst and we'll get to that but at least soften here and just deflate a little bit which might show that the risk is starting to come out of the market. Therefore, Bitcoin may have a little bit of a struggle here to push harder in Q3 if we still see the market rally. All right. So, are we seeing signs that risk is coming out of the market for the time being? Not to say that it's over completely, but for the time being because we could still see a crash and then a rally, right? And that rally could be a pretty significant move, especially off lower levels. You got retail buying the dip. You got the markets going crazy. And in the case of some of these stocks, if they overbalance, showing major weakness from their macro uptrend and potentially transitioning to a downtrend, this rally, the one that I'm circling here on the chart, could be a bit of a complacency bounce and it will probably be on a on a very, very large scale. So, let's just keep watching it. The main thing I'm looking at here is this first signs one, two, three off the top. When we see that from all-time highs, that has is what has happened throughout history for Micron going back many many decades. On the chart, it says 50 to 98%. That's if you're just listening and what not watching the chart, it says 50 to 98%. Last time was 19 uh sorry 2024 correction down 60%. It's nearly 61% and that's from the top all-time high $156. One, two, three. Now, I specifically have the grays there. If you know how to use the tool, you understand the grays are ignored and why they're ignored. But we're just going to look at the signals here and show you how and why this has happened every single time. All-time high in 2021, one, two, three off the top. And Micron also fell 50%. And prior to that was the.com boom. There was the previous all-time high. Remember 2021 just broke the all-time high, crashed 50%. In a macro sense, it's a huge cup and handle, right? Nice, beautiful double top, higher low, and then the stock has absolutely taken off. So a beautiful signal in itself. That was 50%. Not to get too confused here, it's a different time because now we've broke it out and things have gone absolutely gang busters. But look at the.com boom. It happened again from that top and this is where it fell 98%. 1 2 3 down a rally and then collapsed. And then prior to that was 1995. You still had one two three down off the top minor rally and then a collapse. So I understand that Micron was different back then. Maybe it had nothing to do with Bitcoin or NASDAQ. The point is the selling and the signal that has shown up every single time for Micron throughout its history from significant all-time highs has led to very significant crashes. 1995's case was approximately 82%. So you have 82% you have 98% 50% and 60%. What is it going to do this time? Well, let's have a look. This could give us a sign of where that low may form and then we can start to look for a rally which could then line up with with Bitcoin as well. 50% 630 bucks. 60% collapse $500. to the lows. 75% would be 300, 80%, 250, 98%. Insane. We're not even going to go there. Let's just look at 50% for the time being. That's at around $600, $630. Okay, that could line up with everything else that we're watching in regards to the stock markets and quarter three for Bitcoin. We start to see a grind and we see prices continue to fall here. I reckon that's going to be a good time that we see things come together, meaning Bitcoin, tech stocks, risk coming back to the markets after a significant fall into a low and then we begin to see that rally through quarter 4, just how high things go into 2027. Obviously, we'll get to that once we see a low. It's a bit hard to forecast every single movement over the next 12 months, but of course, I'll do my best here on the channel. Make sure you subscribed, like the video if you found value from it, and of course, check out the weekly reports coming out this week. I'll see you guys back at the next video. That was the update for Bitcoin through this bit of a a brutal period as volume continues to drop off. But, uh, yeah, hopefully had a fantastic weekend, fantastic day. Go and celebrate if you are Spanish or supporting the Spanish team and I'll see you guys back here at the next video. Cheers.