Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful weekend and a relaxing one as well. So, good afternoon, good morning, good night, wherever you are. Today will be, you know, shedding light on, you know, a few things that I didn't really want to be talking about right now, but, you know, we will. And we'll be going over the price action of the previous week, right? Whereas, you know, what we expected to happen at the times that we expected it to happen, happened within the index features.
So on screen, you can see the base of our analysis, and that's what it is, right? The base of our analysis. We have the, you know, engineered volatility which is pre-planned every week, right? So as you guys realize, 75% of the times, right? And because there's a time for everything to happen whenever it comes to price action and everything else outside of price action as well. So whenever we have high news events, the days that we have high news events, those are the days whereas we will be looking for the higher and low of the week to form, right? So every week has a low and every week has a high, right? So you don't need to be looking for just, you know, the high to be formed. You can be, you can look for the low to form and then the high to form on these specific days, right? So already you can see that we don't have news on Wednesday and we don't have news on Friday, but we have news on Thursday, right? So we can expect that whenever we get the volatility between Monday and Tuesday, right? With which will, you know, allow price to expand, right? You know, in regards to the direction of the sequential SMT, then the week will be capped by Thursday, right? Well, it should be capped, more than likely it will be, right? So it's very high probability that, you know, Thursday will be a triple day. Monday, Tuesday as well, of course, right? But if we do not have, right? And I'm saying this due to the fact that we have new, we have a news event, right? Right after the New York session, you know, which will be in the afternoon session on Monday, right? Whenever you have that, right? Those days tend to be a lower probability and not as one-sided as the days whereas you just have news events in one session. That's something to, you know, take note of. So Monday, we'll get volatility. It'll be tradable tomorrow, right? You already know what to look for, right? In regards of the weekly cycle, right? If there is sequential SMT between Friday and Monday, then what do you do, right? You move forward and you know, you trade on the direction of, you know, you know, if it's a bullish sequence, you know, you buy. If it's a bearish sequence, you sell. It's basic knowledge here.
Tuesday, we have core sales and retail sales, right? We have two high impact news events on Tuesday, right? So if Monday, right? If it's choppy, consolidates, if there's not really any expansion, but, you know, I believe that there will be some expansion this week. There will be some disruption, some disruption to, you know, price action due to the fact that, um, Trump, you know, allegedly, um, well, some quote-unquote live TV got, you know, aimed at or, you know, because I can say, right? SMT, they tried to assassinate him, as they say. So, you know, that will directly affect the marketplace for sure, right? We will see volatility because of that. And then we have Elon Musk saying that he has been, you know, under, you know, the same attacks for the past few months, right? So whenever you see, you know, you know, political issues like that developing, then you know that for sure we have a higher time frame reversal underway. Even if it takes weeks to come, those are the signs, right? Those are the signs of, you know, the volatility that the market has in store for us.
Looking at the US dollar, you know, in comparison to the Euro and the Great British Pound, right? First of all, you guys knew that we were aiming for buy-side liquidity for the Great British Pound and the Euro, right? Hey, here, right? We did not get the sequential, right? But, right? If the Euro runs above here, and this is something that you should take into consideration, right? Of if whenever you're looking for a run on liquidity, right? And you know, you have a wick here, right? And if the wick isn't here, which is not in, you know, the, the other dollar index, you know, from another data provider, then you, you can use this one, right? Or even this one, right here. So you will get the same measurements here, right? So here, right? If you put, you know, that box down there, right? You would like to see price, you know, clear the box or at least clear 75% of it, you know, before seeing, you know, price reversing. So for me, this is too shallow. I have a stop run right here, and also we do not have, you know, a lower time frame sequential SMT, right? So the smaller boxes right here, they represent the monthly cycle, right? So this would be the second week of the month, and this would be the third week of the month, right? So we would like to see, you know, sequential SMT on these within these cycles or on the daily cycle before we look for, you know, anything specific. And here we can see that we have price, you know, right here. So definitely, you know, I would like to see price being drawn this higher, right here, right? So we were aiming for this high, and after this high, right? Everything became unclear, right? Until now. Then now that we know that we should aim for this high before anything, you know, specific happens in regards to the British Pound, we did. Right? Price did do what we expected. It traded higher, right? Which was here was a drawn liquidity, and it cleared this high as well. So for now, right? Definitely, we need to see, you know, price clear this low properly, right? Clear this high properly, and then we will, you know, scan our charts and see if we have any intermarket sequential SMT. If you have a lower time frame sequential SMT, which would allow price to rebound, you know, higher. And if we have no sequential, it will just keep falling, right? In regards to the dollar index.
So this is where you will have a lot of "aha" moments, right? So first of all, you can see Monday's expansion model here, which took place last week, right? So here we had the S&P 500 during Q2, which was Tuesday, failed to break below the low of Monday, while failing to break below this, the true week open, right? As well. Here we had the Nasdaq failed to break below Monday as well, but it did trade below it, true up. And then here we had the Dow breaking below Monday's low, right? And this created sequential SMT, right? And sequential SMT within a pair, it occurs, you know, on average two to three times, mostly two times, but it can occur three times as well, right? So on average, right? This is something. And if I say that, you know, some of you should be thinking right now and saying, okay, but isn't time fractal? Okay, yes, time is fractal. And what does that mean? That means that on average, every cycle provides two to three opportunities, right? You understand? Every cycle will provide two to three opportunities. Most times it will just be two times. So 90-minute cycles, it doesn't matter if it's the, you know, daily cycle, it doesn't matter if it's the weekly cycle, right? On average, you would have two, you know, opportunities forming. Two, most of the times, like 75, 70% of the times, there would just be two opportunities. And then the other 30, then you would have three, right? So that means that if there's a trade in Q2 of whichever cycle that you're looking at, right? And then you get a trade in, and then you get a trade in Q3, what does that mean? That means that, you know, just sit on your hands. There will be no more trades. There will just be expansion or consolidation. So you, you can use this knowledge, this information that you have now to, you know, manage your risk even, you know, better, right? Now you know that you have this amount of shots per per, you know, cycles. And yeah.
So here you can see the wherever where you see these, you know, what are these? These arrows, which is, you know, above the swing high and below the swing low and above the swing high as well, right? So first of all, you should, you should already know that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and the Dow should be moving symmetrically. So anything that's out of place, a cracking correlation here, right? This is a swing high, but here it's a swing low. So right here we have diametrically opposed swing points. Wherever you see this happening, right? It's a sign that price will undergo a reversal, right? So this is what, look at it again. It's a swing high, this is a swing low, and they occur at the same time. On a normal day, there should be a swing high and there should be a swing high. They should not be, you know, opposing one another here, right? At at the low, just what you would expect, by the way, right? So this is literally typical, right? Whenever you have reversals in regards to the weekly cycle, one-hour precision swing points. So here at the Dow, and take note that most of the times, literally, right? Whenever you have the asset class run liquidity, the last one-hour candle, whenever you're working with the weekly cycle, it will be a one-hour precision swing point, right? And this is specific to the candle that runs liquidity. It doesn't have to happen, you know, with the other candles. They could be just precision candles, which are, you know, basically precision swing points that are not swing points. So here, wherever you see, and, you know, going forward in the video, whenever you see, you know, this blue arrow, it represents a precision swing point.
And now we'll go into something else that, you know, I, I haven't talked about. I probably hinted to it, but I did not talk about this. So here, right? You can see that, you know, this level right here is delineated by the last down close candle before, you know, this expansion upwards, right? So this is the last down close candle, the last one-hour candle before the most expansion that happened within the third quarter, right? You know, this would be, you know, something, you know, what ICT traders would call a breaker, but, you know, I do not call it that. Right? This is a precision breaker, right? A precision breaker. And the only reason why I say, you know, breaker or, you know, added breaker to the name is just due to the fact that, you know, ICT is my manager, and this is the, I believe, the base of what a breaker is. Even even though according to him, the breaker would probably be this low. But due to the fact that this is a precision breaker, right? This is the candle that all of this buying happened in, right? This down close candle, which, so while price was here, right? Consolidating, they already knew that they were going to send price higher, which is why, right? We anchored, you know, this line right here, the top of the level to this candle right here. And the lower level of, you know, all of this level right here is anchored to this swing low. The reason, the reason why it's a precision breaker is due to the fact that here, while we had, you know, price falling through the breaker, right? Leaving the breaker in premium, right? So price left the breaker in premium and was consolidating here. Right here, price returned to the breaker while it was in discount. Do you understand? So there's a cracking correlation in in the placements of the breaker right here between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Do you see that? So this breaker is in, what? It's in discount. And what else is important to this? This is from Q3. So we're taking a level from Q3, call cutting it through, you know, Q4, and it's reactive, right? In Friday. So it's a bit confusing, right? When looking at the weekly cycle. And this is why, you know, doubling theory is important because doubling theory has, you know, nothing to do with quarters per se, right? It just, you know, measures fractals of time and reflects upon them. So for example, doubling theory would reflect upon, you know, month to month, February reflecting on January, March reflecting on February, and so on. And here you have, you have Friday reflecting upon Thursday, Thursday reflecting on Wednesday. So here we're completely cutting through whatever, you know, quarterly theory, right? So Q3 is where this level is derived from. We cut through Q4, and then due to the fact that this precision breaker is in discount, right? And discount is, you already know how we, you know, mark a premium discount, right? It has to be on the base of precision candles or precision swing points. So these candles right here, what are they? They are swing points. That's what they are, right? So here we had this candle run below here, right? This level, grab liquidity, it went below the true week open as well, formed a precision swing point. And here is something else that I was going to talk about, you know, during the course of the week, but it makes sense to just do it right now, right? If you look within this precision swing point, and this is what I need you to do, right? You'll see that precision swing points, real precision swing points, because you can have fake precision swing points, right? Real precision swing points are fractal. What do I mean by that? Okay, I got to show you. Let's go to the 15-minute time frame. Remember, right? We're at a 15-minute time frame right now. Look at this, right? So here you have a 15-minute time frame precision swing point within a one-hour time frame precision swing point. And I'll just, you know, leave that for your homework to, you know, dig through the charts. And you'll find four-time frame precision swing points within daily time precision points whenever you have reversals.
So here, right? You would ask, you know, why you said that the wicks don't focus on the wicks. Okay, when we said not to focus on the wicks, that was, you know, a time where, you know, we weren't even talking about precision swing points yet, right? We were just talking about sequential SMT. But precision swing points, right? They are, in my opinion, you know, due to the fact that the real ones occur after sequential SMT, and sequential SMT is a formation of, you know, you know, a completion of precision swing points, then precision swing points are more important to me, right? You don't need, you know, a higher time frame period where you don't need anything else, just the precision swing point right here after we have sequential SMT. So here, there's a wick, right? Yes. And even though, right? Some of you might be scared, no, you don't have to be scared again, right? Here you see that, okay, but it's just a wick. It wasn't a closure, right? The closure, you can look for a closure here. But whenever you're looking for a closure, right? To, you know, give you certainty that you're looking at a reversal in regards to sequential SMT, that's only when, you know, you don't have a precision swing point, right? So here, even though there's no closure, the fact that we have a precision swing point here makes it higher probability than even if there was a closure without a precision swing point. And here you have layered precision swing points, whereas you have a 15-minute time frame swing within a one-hour time frame precision swing point. With this, right? It's so powerful. You do not even, you know, you don't need to be looking at anything else but the triads. And when you're trading the weekly time frame, which is what we're going to perfect before we go to the lower time frames, right? You, you need to understand this right here. You need to know what a precision swing point is. You need to know what a precision candle is. And, you know, especially if you're trading the index futures trade, you need to understand these levels. The precision breaker, what is it? This is what it is.
So here you can see that we have this line right here, and you, you only use this for support, right? So this would become a higher time frame level, right? This would function as how you would want a higher time frame fair value gap to actually function, right? This is even though, you know, most of the times they don't deliver this. Why? Here we have price accumulating within the precision breaker, right? So what happens is that in one asset, right? The precision breaker will serve as, you know, either support or resistance, and the other one will serve as a magnet. The turning point would occur here where you have the sequential SMT, you have the precision swing point, another precision swing point within that precision swing point. Then when you go here, right? This is this level is derived from the one-hour time frame. You go to the 15-minute time frame, and then you, you will see, right? Your entry points. You will, you will see. And just to let you know, this isn't even like as clean as it gets. It's literally, you know, the only reason why you have so much, if you, you know, passing your challenge, you're trading properly, you're able to read price action, which is the most important thing. That's why I'm here to show you how to read price action, right? You decide whenever you want to go press your buttons, you know, when you decide to make, but I'm here to show you, you know, how to read price, how to know what price is going to do more times than not, right? So with that being said, we will be back Wednesday at 6 PM Eastern Standard Time, right? If there is, you know, any improvement to, you know, price action. And oh, I didn't even say this as you guys remembered, right? Right? We expected Thursday to form the high of the week, right? Which it did here. And then we expected Friday to either reverse and cancel all of the week or just return to the range, which happened right here. So yeah, I just, I don't know. I just like, you know, most of the times whenever we get, you know, our direction right, or whatever it's been, you know, seven months now, right? I just don't feel the need to, you know, just come and clip it anymore because I, you know, I think you guys understand the level that we are at, right? It should be boring. That's how it should be, right? You make some money, it should be boring. You lose some money, it should be boring. You don't really much because you're using risk management. Yeah. So with that being said, I hope that you, you know, have a wonderful week. You know, I'll be here. I'll be reading your messages. I'll be in the chats. Even sometimes it's like I'm not there, but I'm always there. So study this one, take notes. I tried to not make it too long, right? I, I tried to, you know, cram the information within 30 minutes so that, you know, because I know that you have a lot of information already. I know that you have a lot of things to study already. But yeah, I hope that, you know, this helps you. And we'll talk at 6 PM Eastern Standard Time Wednesday. If there's any, you know, development in price before that, we'll definitely, you know, be having a surprise live stream to discuss it. Have a wonderful day.
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