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America's AI Bubble Is About to Burst – And China Holds the Pin πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³

global impulseβ€’13:20

Transcription

The US economy is basically being held together with toothpicks, scotch tape, and AI investments right now. And the most significant area of competition, of course, is technology. Here, China has already established a commanding lead in several areas.

AI often triggers fear, even in the US. China, very different. While America burns through trillions chasing AI fantasies with 40% of GDP growth coming from pure AI speculation, China is quietly building the world's most profitable AI empire. These clips will blow your mind about who's really winning the AI race. Let's get to it.

The most significant area of competition, of course, is technology. Here, China has already established a commanding lead in several areas, in green technology. From solar panels to batteries to electric vehicles, Beijing's dominance is now overwhelming. These act as a geopolitical lever, as Beijing offers solar farms, battery plants, and electric buses to nations in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

Bloomberg has tracked 13 critical technologies and found that China now leads in five and is catching up fast in seven. This is huge data that nobody talks about. Bloomberg tracked 13 critical technologies. China leads in five, catching up in seven. That's 12 out of 13 technologies where China is either winning or about to win. Meanwhile, America thinks it's winning because of ChatGPT.

In one area, however, Washington still believes it has an unrivaled lead: artificial intelligence. American firms like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google dominate the frantic race to artificial general intelligence. Though few can define precisely the term or explain what it means to win this race.

China's approach to AI is strikingly different from America's. Instead of chasing AGI, Beijing has emphasized applications and diffusion. It seeks to embed AI into every corner of its economy and society: in logistics, in surveillance, in smart cities, in healthcare, in drones and robots. This strategy ensures that AI quickly produces real economic transformation and returns, raising productivity and embedding the new technology into daily life.

China has also chosen a different model of diffusion. Where many American firms are locking their frontier models behind proprietary walls, Chinese companies are releasing open AI systems. This is the killer move. While OpenAI burns $7 billion annually with a closed model, DeepSeek releases open-source AI that performs just as well for a fraction of the cost. In January 2025, DeepSeek triggered a trillion-dollar sell-off in US tech stocks. Nvidia lost 17% in one day. Most prominently, DeepSeek can be easily adapted and deployed. It's an irony that communist China now embraces open technology platforms while the US favors closed ones. This strategy could make Chinese AI a global standard, especially in the developing world where governments and firms are eager for cheap, customizable tools.

Add to this Huawei's emerging dominance and 6G technology, and it's quite possible that the technology interface for much of the world will be Chinese, not American. What makes China's technology strategy particularly formidable is its integration across domains. It is not just building AI models. It is weaving them into hardware, infrastructure, and cities.

Consider robotics. Chinese firms are producing humanoid and quadruped machines equipped with rich sensor arrays that allow them to see and think in real environments. Just last year, China installed almost nine times as many industrial robots as the United States. Nine times. Let that sink in. While America debates AI ethics, China installed nine times more industrial robots than the US. They're not talking about AI. They're using it to dominate manufacturing, or take drones, and yes, flying cars.

China is building what it calls a low-altitude economy, carving out urban airspace for autonomous aerial vehicles. In Shenzhen, drones already deliver packages. In Guangzhou, E-Hang self-flying cars have begun taking passengers. Again, the advantage is integration: sensors, AI, hardware, and regulation aligned to create transformative technology.

Meanwhile, in the United States, government funding for basic science and technology has been slashed. Our best universities are under siege, with the government locked in a war to take down Harvard, by many measures the world's top-ranked research university. While the government was on the verge of shutting down in Washington, the president and secretary of defense summoned hundreds of the country's top generals to lecture them on staying slim and fighting woke ideology. Breathe. We need to get serious.

Now, here are some comments. "Yes, we are glad that there are still a country that believes in serving people, never for personal glory from top down, a country that builds on truth and values. Even at this point, there are people on TikTok with their channel mentioning that China is about to collapse. Yes, America needs to get serious. But first and foremost, and more importantly, America needs a moral compass. Without a moral compass, America's decline is a blessing. The world does not want a superpower that is a destructive, self-serving bully." - BBC.

But at what cost? AI often triggers fear. Even in the US, the world's AI leader. You will notice a big split. Tech insiders are excited. But many oral people are deeply worried. China, very different. The government is owning on AI. Yes, people worry about job losses. But their big worry is what if the US controls AI and China falls behind? There is an old phrase in China: "If you fall behind, you get beaten." That mindset shapes how people see AI here. So instead of long debates about ethics, Chinese citizens rush to learn how to use it. AI-generated images, videos, tools. Most people are curious, not resistant. It's not that China ignores risk, but the practical mindset says if AI can give me an advantage, I should learn it fast before someone else does. And that contrast matters because how society's embrace of AI will shape not just economies, but also the future of global power. I'm a Chinese founder and schera unpacking how this world and China really works. Check my bio page for more. Thank you. This is why China is winning.

While Americans fear AI will take their jobs, Chinese citizens are learning AI tools as fast as possible. It's a completely different mindset: embrace and adapt versus fear and regulate. This cultural difference is massive. China's AI+ policy aims for 70% AI penetration across key sectors by 2027. America is still debating whether AI is safe.

And let's check out this comment. "It's not just fear of job loss. We don't have any healthcare without full-time jobs. China isn't killing people with data centers. The US is building them on thousands of acres, taking down forests and farms. They're making us pay for the electricity. They pollute, which gives us health issues and death. They cause excess heat. Ouch."

Deutsche Bank just released a report that said that the US economy is basically being held together with toothpicks, scotch tape, and AI investments right now. And when the bubble pops, it is going to be devastating. AI has always been snake oil, at least in this current iteration. If you're in it, if you're in tech and you're working in it, you got to get out. Even if for your own moral fortitude.

Deutsche Bank just confirmed what we've been saying, but Harvard economist Jason Furman just dropped an atomic bomb of data. Without data centers, US GDP growth was 0.1%, basically zero. Information processing is only 4% of the economy, but accounts for 92% of GDP growth. Let that sink in. 92%. And here's the thing: AI data center spending has surpassed US consumer spending for the first time ever. Consumer spending is normally 2/3 of GDP, but now AI infrastructure drives everything. One economist literally said, "Our economy might just be three AI data centers in a trench coat." Americans spend only $12 billion on actual AI services, while hyperscalers burn $400 billion annually. This isn't an economy. It's a Ponzi scheme.

Now, here are some more comments. "Rent literally makes up like 10 to 15% of the US economy. The USA will be Donald J. Trump's seventh bankruptcy. Our whole economy is fake. Like, we don't produce anything. We don't innovate anything. We don't build anything. Our whole economy is making money from making money from betting on making money. It's all fairy dust."

"Scary thing about the so-called AI bubble right now, whether you think it's going to happen or not, is if it is a bubble and things crash, we are so overallocated as a country and really a world into AI. For example, Nvidia. If AI takes a hit, Nvidia is going to crash. Nvidia, the $4 trillion company, the biggest company in the world, is going to lose a lot of its value. Like, that money is just going to disappear. When that money disappears, all the markets going to tank because it's the biggest company in the market. So whether we're a bubble or not, it's going to be bad either way, which is sort of a scary thing. Either AI comes in, they take all the jobs, blah blah blah, or AI is a bubble and it crashes and all the stocks, everything crash with it because we're so overallocated into that space, VC money, VC money, all that stuff, you know. Um, so we'll see what happens. Do you think we're in a bubble? Do you think we're not in the bubble? I'm going to leave two answers down below. We'll see who wins."

And the numbers prove how dangerous this is. AI stocks account for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched. America's not just overallocated, they're completely dependent. When AI like DeepSeek proves you can get the same results for pennies on the dollar, that $4 trillion Nvidia valuation comes worthless overnight. Meanwhile, Chinese companies like BYD are already profitable with 16% operating margins. The contrast is insane. America burns trillions on speculation while China builds profitable AI businesses.

And now some comments. "There's no question we are in a bubble. Nvidia is severely overvalued. Bro, around half of the top 10 S&P 500 companies are in some way tied to AI. If the bubble bursts, it's going to be over for a while. China is doing the most innovation and Nvidia is banned from selling to them."

Now, here's a brutal truth. Harvard economist Jason Furman just proved America's economy is literally three AI data centers in a trench coat. Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1%, which is basically zero. As we said before, now 92% of GDP growth from just 4% of the economy, which is AI infrastructure. AI spending surpassed consumer spending for the first time in US history: $400 billion hyperscaler spending versus $12 billion consumer AI usage. Without the AI boom, America would be in a recession.

Here's America's house of cards: 92% of growth from speculative AI infrastructure. Consumer spending, which is normally 2/3 of GDP, is replaced by AI hype. Manufacturing, retail, services are all declining. The economy would collapse without data center spending.

Now compare that to China's real economy, which has profitable AI companies built with 16% margins. You have AI integrated into actual production and services. You have open-source models disrupting US markets at lower costs. And you also have sustainable growth, not speculation. When this house of cards collapses, America's economy implodes while China's AI-powered economy dominates the world.

If this opened your eyes about the real AI race, smash that like button. The mainstream media won't tell you this story, but the data doesn't lie. China is winning through practical execution while America drowns in hype. Subscribe for more data-driven analysis that cuts through the BS. What do you think? Is America's AI bubble about to pop? Drop your thoughts below. And if you want to dive deeper into this topic, check out my detailed blog post linked in the description with all the sources and data. I'll see you in the next one.