Transcription
Two linguistically defensible readings of the same event. One is correct, one is exploitable.
The Oracle manipulator's job is not to hack the system. It's just to find a contract where the gap is wide enough to drive a vote through.
You're looking for three things. You're looking for a real world event that generates genuinely ambiguous language, a large enough market for the profit it to exceed the cost of coordination, and then a voting pool concentrated enough that the coordination is cheap.
When all these three things are present, the expected utility of manipulation is positive. The math is very simple. The total capital at risk multiplied by the probability that the market misprices the ambiguity minus the cost of controlling the vote.
Subscribe to our newsletter, by the way, if you want to see the math on this cuz I don't hate myself enough to read it all here, but nine wallets, $345 million, and one word, and that word is permanent.
The gap between a politician said permanent and a 60-day framework is not permanent is the exploit. That's the exploit vector. They didn't need to hack anything. They just needed a Pakistani Prime Minister to go use the wrong word at a press conference. And wouldn't you know it, a Pakistani Prime Minister did exactly that. And then they just needed to control the vote.