Transcription
We are currently experiencing a new decline, and there it is, the catastrophe scenario is being considered by everyone. The bulls are panicking and running away at the moment when something is happening that happened in 2022, that is to say an ATH, a decline, a retracement that just happened to be limited to the first Fibonacci stop at 0.382, then being sent back to the ropes a bit like we did at the beginning of 2022. We did the same thing with a descent, a retracement, and the objective now is to go much lower on Bitcoin. We are doing this at a time when the Nasdaq is starting to correct, a lot is happening behind the scenes at price levels where we will see it on Bitcoin, things are happening that are really, really interesting in a cyclicality that itself announces a bit of what's to come. So we start with Bitcoin and we will analyze the scenario that has been predicted by several YouTube channels and especially put things back into perspective because what is said sometimes requires a bit of caution. So I was telling you about this scenario of a retracement on the first Fibonacci stop with a bearish rejection, it is indeed a bearish Fibonacci scenario that announces a bearish continuation. Several channels have correlated the fact that it is the same as what we experienced in 2022 with a bottom zone which, as you can see, is substantially the same with lows that are quite close to each other. We know that this creates a lot of liquidity compared to these lows where we come to seek liquidity one last time and then we shoot up much higher. And so that's it, it's the end of the line, we're going to dive much lower. Now, it's true, Fibonacci theories indeed say that, now it's the second step of Fibonacci theory. And this is where we need to put things into perspective, is that this scenario must follow a very strict procedure. Fibonacci theory states something very specific, which is that in the first step, we must always observe according to Fibonacci that we are no longer in an uptrend based on retracements. And for that, you have to take a Fibonacci, draw it from the bottom of the cycle to the current high of the cycle and observe if this first stop has indeed been broken. And that was the case at the end of 2021. End of 2021, beginning of 2022, we had a huge retracement. We broke this first stop. From there, Fibonacci rules indeed say we are entering a downtrend. That's the first step. Second step on the rebound that is taking place, it will be to observe which are the two zones that, in terms of probabilities, have the most chance of rejecting the short-term bullish momentum. And these two zones are: first, the first stops here at the 0.382 level, which we did in 2022, and this zone just here between 0.786 and 0.868, which is the optimal zone for a final retracement if we have a much stronger momentum. Here, the first stop played its role, and we went much lower, so no problem. The last Fibonacci rule is that once we have observed that 1, we are no longer in a bull run, and 2, that we have had the retracement level, the final objective is the same objective as what we have just seen in terms of retracement, it is the zone from 0.786 to 0.868. Also called the ultimate recharge zone of the cycle in which we bottomed out during 2022-2023. So we must apply these same rules and not skip a step just to accommodate what our eyes see. And when we do this step number 1, we see that it is not fulfilled. We take a Fibonacci from the absolute bottom of the cycle to the current top and we see that the first stop holds. The first stop has held for almost the entire cycle. It held here, it held here, it held here as well, it held here, and it still holds. This is exactly the zone in which we bottomed out. So if we take Fibonacci rules, as long as this first stop holds, and these are absolute rules, then the objective is to make a new ATH. So there is a step that has been skipped, a crucial step to be able to say that this first stop is indeed the ultimate retracement zone that must operate a bearish rejection. Not at all. It is a psychological zone that does operate a rejection, but if we stick to Fibonacci, we are still not in a downtrend, and therefore we cannot skip a step. What is also interesting is that this bottom zone is occurring in a zone that is not just one. Just here you can see I've put an indicator which is simply the average purchase cost of Bitcoin, all ETFs combined. So you know that ETFs have been launched since 2024, launched by various companies including Black Rock, Fidelity, and others. And different Bitcoins are bought and sold over time. And the sum of all these purchased Bitcoins results in an average purchase price that is located between the gray line and the pink-purple line just here. And it is interesting to note that as purchases are made, we have a bottom zone that coincides most with this average purchase price. Currently, the average purchase price of institutions via ETFs is around $85,700. This is a zone that has rejected quite a few times in recent weeks, as you can see, a zone on which we are currently bottoming out. And so this is not an insignificant zone, and a lot is happening within it. We must not just look at the shape of the support, we must really look at what is happening behind it. And that is exactly what we are going to do now in this video. So this indicator, if you want it like the others, is not publicly available on TradingView. You have to go to Tradingpro.tech. You have the link in the description, you create an account, and you will have access to all the indicators that I show you, which are only available through this platform. What is happening here is something extremely interesting that did not happen just there, and this is where the differences must be notably highlighted. First difference, the current support level is absorbing absolutely all spot sales. You see Bitcoin here, you see the bid and ask ratio here. This is something that is extremely important and shows you the difference between buying and selling on the spot market. You can also filter this. It is a paid tool that I make available to my community for free, and you can switch between spot and perpetuals to see exactly what is happening. What interests us is the spot market. What is happening on the spot market? Are the movements leading to accumulation and absorption of all those who are selling? And we see that yes, since yesterday, on the decline just here, we have a fairly significant absorption level. An absorption level that has been significant since Bitcoin arrived at these local bottom levels, where you can see that this is not a behavior that repeats every time. If we look at what is happening on Bitcoin on a daily basis, you have the accumulation levels, or at the bottom here there was strong accumulation. Here, each bearish retracement has led to accumulation as well, a bottom zone. And you can see that in terms of ratio, we have not had such a strong accumulation zone since the beginning of the cycle. Since the very beginning of the cycle, all the way down here, we have not had a zone that has absorbed sales so much, and so something is really happening here. The other notable element, in my opinion, is that during the different bullish movements and the different retracements within these same bullish movements, we still had sales. If we take the corrective movements just here, here, here, here, and even higher, you can see that on the spot level, there were sales, sales, sales. The retracements did not lead to absorption. Whereas here, well, it's the complete opposite. And so something extremely important is happening. This extremely important thing can be observed on the CBD. It is also a paid tool that I make available to my Millennium community, for which you have the link in the description. Well, the CBD indicates at what price level we have had the most concentration of Bitcoin. Concentration of Bitcoin means that Bitcoins have arrived from cold wallets to exchanges, but we also have a lot of Bitcoin that has been transferred and bought from one wallet to another. This is called a transfer of hands between those who sell and those who buy. And what we can see here is that we have a huge support zone which is approximately, I calculated, over 1.5 million Bitcoins. So I'll let you imagine what that is in dollars, 1.5 million Bitcoins. But we don't have the breakdown between buying and selling in these large CBD zones. And so this is where we need to interpret the CBD by looking at price action when a large zone appears. You can see here it was empty, we were in blue. You have here at the supply level, the number of tokens it represents. Above red, it's 400,000 Bitcoins and more. In blue, we are at a maximum of 50,000 Bitcoins and less. So you can see that we had absolutely nothing. And from the moment we bounced off the 80,000-82,000 level, a huge zone of 1 million Bitcoins appeared. It appeared, and the price was sent back up. It was maintained, and each time we came back down, not only was it maintained, it sent the price back up. But you can see that in terms of color, we went from blue to green, to yellow, indicating that we are moving to 150,000 to 250,000 Bitcoins also at this level. Also at this level, and each time these levels appear, we have a price reversal upwards. So here, massive absorption is taking place, which can be observed thanks to the bid and ask ratio, which can be observed thanks to the CBD, and this is where it is a notable difference compared to 2022, which is that if we zoom out and put the history over 5 years, you will be able to see that this was not the case at all. So we are at 5 years, and you can see the different CBD zones that are displayed. In the past, we had the zone here in February where the price was below. We bounced into it, the zone appeared. We bounced while going below, indicating that there was strong resistance here and certainly much more selling than buying. Result: a big correction. Here we have the huge support on which we are. Here we had the same thing. The price was below the CBD zone, indicating that it was more of a resistance than a support. We got rejected. And if you look, each time we hit these zones, they coincided with Bitcoin's next move. And if we go into this 2022 zone, well, we have the same thing. Firstly, a price that fell, a CBD zone that revealed itself to us here with a price that bounced downwards within it. Indicating that there is much more selling, it's crashing. Here, same thing, you can see, idem, we come here, a zone appears in orange, we fall, a zone appears here, we fall, a zone appears here, we fall, a last zone appears here, we fall. Continuation of the bear market. And so this is where you need to open your eyes. You shouldn't just be scared by saying the price is falling, be careful, it looks a bit like what we saw before. No, you need to look at the metrics, you shouldn't be stupid. And when you're not stupid, you see that the pattern is not at all the same. We have accumulation patterns, whereas here we had distribution patterns. We are not at all on the same thing. So this is where you need to be a little careful. And even then, that's an understatement when I say that regarding what you do. Whether you are in profit or in loss, this is where you will have to manage your risk and your positions to the maximum. Why? Because if this zone clearly serves as support, it means the price will go higher. If the price goes higher, it means there are zones where you will have to manage risk. Why? Because there are psychological and liquidity zones where there will be new corrections that will bring -10%, -15%, -20% on Bitcoin, on altcoins. And if we are set to make a new ATH, then you need to know when you will take your profits, lighten your portfolio, etc., etc. And this is exactly what we do for the community. My private community, I've been talking about it for a while, it's on millennium-crypto.fr. You have the link in the description, and pay close attention to what I'm going to tell you in the next two minutes because it might save the entirety of the end of your cycle. What we do for the community is several things. First, we provide them with market analysis, we tell them exactly what is happening, and we provide them with elements that I will never show on YouTube, of course, and which will allow them to perform regardless of the type of cycle ahead of us, whether it's a bear market or a bull run. We have different visions: holders, active management, market action, which are inherent to what is happening in the markets. For example, I have a very patient profile where I can wait a quarter, two quarters for my positions to turn, it's not a problem. Now, we are several hundred in this community, and there are people who want to optimize their positions, whether we are in profit or in loss. And this is where it is extremely important because we do have positions that are in loss, of course, with what we have experienced in recent weeks, but even in loss, we can optimize the portfolio. This is exactly what we did in the last few days, for example. We anticipated that there would be this bearish retracement just here. And whether we are in loss or not, we gave the community the choice to optimize their portfolio. The example is quite simple. Imagine that just here at the $98,000 level you have a portfolio of $5,000 and you are at a 50% loss. Well, even if you are at a 50% loss, psychologically it's very difficult to do, I understand, but mathematically it's undeniable. If we can foresee a short-term drop, then you can take the step to optimize. You are at -50%, certainly, but if the price drops by -20% and you can buy back -20% lower, then your latent losses will decrease. Okay, you will sell at a loss, very well, you will realize it, it hurts. But buying back 20% lower means you will have a larger number of tokens. If you had, for example, 1 BTC here, you could have 1.2 by buying lower despite a smaller dollar portfolio, and this allows you to optimize your portfolio and to climb, climb, climb towards the break-even much faster. And if you were in profit, well, it's even more striking. You sell at profit here, you buy back lower. So, of course, when the price returns to that level, you will have more money than before. And this is the calculation you need to make regarding your portfolio, whether you are in loss or not. So, as I was saying, we just did this. Those in the community who chose to follow this management, I won't show it to you because otherwise you'll see what we said, and that's not the goal. And so those who did it are directly optimizing their positions by 15%, 10%, 12%, whatever. And this does not oppose the long-term vision we have. You know, I don't change my vision. I have metrics in front of me, I have data, I play them, and what I see is that in the medium term, we will go higher. So we have positions that are turning, that are perhaps in a waiting loss, certainly, but we know that we will go higher, so they will be in profit. We live with that, it's fine, there's no problem. However, we also have short-term positions that we will manage, on which we will increase the size of our portfolios, reduce potential waiting losses by taking these small optimization movements, and this is where you will have a huge benefit by joining the community. Where you will also have a huge benefit is that you can make these optimizations on cryptos that are worth buying. I'm showing you this as an example. I'm displaying it for hyper liquidity, it doesn't mean we are on it, not at all, but I'm showing you exactly what to look for. You probably have a multitude of cryptos in your portfolio, and you need to see cryptos like companies listed on the stock exchange. There are tokens, there are protocols behind them, many of them don't make a dime, and some of them make money. Some of them make money, and what you need to anticipate is their profitability, their financial data, especially during movements like this. Why? Because this, ladies and gentlemen, tells you how much the cryptocurrency is really worth, whereas this only announces the behavior of investors in the financial markets. So there can be a huge decoupling between the price falling because people panic and sell, while there is absolutely incredible financial data. Indicating that when the project, indicating that when the market starts to rise again, these projects that have great financial data, that even have financial data that is appreciating while the stock price is falling, well, they are the ones that will outperform the rest. And this is a real profession. It's mine, financial analysis, and this is exactly the work we do for the community. We show them where we are positioned, why we are buying these cryptos, and then it's up to them to rely on our strategy to implement their own. Last point of this video, liquidity trickle-down and asset rotation. We see that a lot is happening in the market, and one of these things is a clear asset rotation that is taking place. Just here, you have Bitcoin in green, and you have the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio. For those who don't know what the S&P 500 is, well, it's the largest stock market index for companies based in the United States. It includes the 500 largest companies in terms of valuation and market cap in the States, and the Russell 2000 is an index that comprises more mid-cap or even low-cap companies. It's the equivalent of altcoins in the traditional market. And what happens is that at very specific moments of the bull run, we have an inversion. What is this inversion? It's simply the S&P 500 calming down and the Russell 2000 accelerating. In terms of investor psychology, this demonstrates one thing, and that is that they are moving out of the largest market to go to a slightly more volatile market and descending the risk curve. And what is interesting, what should be noted because it has happened with almost perfect occurrence, is that each time we have had a ratio like this that exploded and started to explode as we see here, well, Bitcoin has been able to take off. Why? Because on the risk curve, Bitcoin is just below the Russell 2000. And therefore, liquidity trickle-down means trickle-down to Bitcoin, then to altcoins immediately after. And you can see that this is exactly what happened here between 2020 and 2021. This also starts the cycle end countdown, but it's a very big topic, so we'll discuss it in tomorrow's video. If you liked the video, subscribe, like, because we will do this kind of debrief every day, or every two days, to keep you updated on what's happening in the markets. This is Trï. Have a very good day.