Transcription
Hello everyone, good morning, good afternoon, good night, wherever you are. And I hope that you had a wonderful weekend. The past weekend, of course.
Today, we'll be going over the market, just a, you know, overview and doing some analysis. Wednesday, this Wednesday, which is the day after tomorrow, is a day whereas we will be going live at around 8:30 a.m. in the morning. So we'll be doing some live stream, you know, reading of price action, as well as we'll be, you know, using the volatility and trying to gauge, you know, you know, or predict what will happen.
So you can see that yesterday, we did have news at 10:00 a.m., right? But due to the fact that this week is not a non-farm payroll week, we usually, you know, take caution. So on these weeks, I usually like to wait for the two-week open to be established before doing anything at all. Currently, it's 6:27 p.m. We already had the two-week open being established, which is 6:00 p.m. We can see that tomorrow, we have news at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time and 10:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Usually, whenever we have two high-impact news events within, you know, approximate proximity of 30 minutes, and that's important, right? Within the approximately of 30 minutes together, we could, we will potentially see either intermarket SMT or sequence SMT on the nine-minute cycles, right? And this is very, you know, useful for the index futures, right?
And as you guys can see, well, you will see right now, we're not in the best spot for anything at all, in my opinion, right? So now we have, you know, consolidation or low probability conditions all across the board, right? So it's not like a, we, as I would be like, okay, we'd expect price to fill this fair value gap. No, at times like these, we don't have fair value gaps. Times that these prices totally are in sync, and that's just due to the fact that we have, you know, all of these troubles, you know, across, you know, just ripping through the economic fabric of of our world, right? So, you know, Russia, the USA, all of these things are having impacts on the market at the moment, which, you know, will be cleared up soon. The market will be cleared up soon. But, you know, times like these are the best, in my opinion, because it teaches you more. It's harder to navigate, so you're being, you know, stretched, or pushed to your limit, whereas you have to be waiting longer than you would want to wait, which is good because you're here for what? To learn how to trade, to learn how to read price action, and also to learn how to control your emotions.
So me telling you this is, of course, since recently, I've just been placing no more than three trades a week, sometimes two. Why? In these conditions, you know, election year conditions, you don't really want to be scalping too much. Stick to day trades and inch-week trades or stick to in-month trades, which are, you know, swing traded, which, which is swing traded, anyways.
Here, Wednesday, you can see that we have high impact news events in the morning, right? ADP, you know, for payroll change in the morning, which is different from non-farm payroll and actual NFP, right? This isn't as volatile as this is. Here, we have unemployment claims. Here, we have H new EV again. And here we have FOMC minutes, medium minutes. So by looking at this, you can see that these days which have the most high impact news events for, so for example, we have Wednesday right here having, you know, high impact news events. And here, Friday, we have having the second most high impact news event, which is important, right? The days which usually have the first and second most high impact news events tend to, you know, be days that form the higher low weeks, right? And no one else is going to tell you this because they don't look at it this way, or traders simply don't know.
Of course, for this to be confirmed, because any of these, either of these two days could, you know, prove the give that move that you're looking for, right? Any of these days, if you realize, then this is the main reason why I was not, I didn't care about, you know, Monday, because this is what I saw, right? And by me skipping Monday, most of you, you know, will in fact skip Monday as well, which is good, which is why I did it.
So the thing that would confirm, you know, the, you know, a large move would be what? Yes, sequential SMT followed by a precision swing point. And that's usually the, you know, well, there are more things to learn, but for now, we stick to that so you don't get too confused, right? Sequential SMT followed by precision swing point, right? And this would occur on the lowest nine-minute cycle. But preferably, we would see this form on the daily cycle or the weekly cycle, right? The sequential or intermarket sequence SMT. Whenever it forms on the weekly cycle, obviously, price will give us a larger move than if it's formed on the daily cycle. After this day, when if we see SMT here, we can expect what? We can expect price to move. Even if we see it on Tuesday, we can expect price to move. But there's something to, you know, really understand, which is a supportive doubling. For example, if we see sequence SMT here on Wednesday, we won't see it on on Thursday within the weekly cycle. So sequential SMT tends to, you know, it's not going to be following, right? So you won't see it on Tuesday and Wednesday on the weekly cycle. If you see it on Wednesday, and even if it forms on, for example, day after Wednesday, then it would be on a lower time frame cycle, which would not allow price to, you know, move to take over the range that was formed on Wednesday.
So you, what usually, what you'd like to see, and the case is usually that you will not see more than, well, there are times when price is very, how do I say, you know, when price is moving a lot, the most that is possible is to see three in regards to the, in regard, in regards to a cycle that you're looking at, right? So not just in regards to the weekly cycle, but if you look at the nine-minute cycle, it has four quarters, right? You won't see, well, that's, that's a different case, we're getting into now. We're talking about the weekly cycle. For the weekly cycle, you won't see more than three. So if it's on one on Monday, then you can see one on Tuesday. If one's on Monday, you can see one on Wednesday, but you won't see it on Tuesday, right? So it will skip days, right? It will skip Monday if we had one on Friday the week before, right? It will skip Tuesday if we had one on Monday. It will skip Wednesday if we had one on Tuesday. It will skip Thursday if we had sequence SMT on Wednesday. And if we skip Friday if we had sequence SMT on Thursday. This is very important to understand because whenever there is not sequence SMT, there is not expansion. When there is not sequence SMT, all they usually have is what? Either consolidation, which gives rise to a sequence SMT, or continuation.
Crispy charts today, finally got it fixed. Here you can see we are looking at the index futures triad, right? You can see that I have just this line right here. And usually, well, most of the times, you'll always, you know, just see, I'll just draw a line at the level that I'm interested in. And not to say that this is the be-all and end-all, you just want to see price go higher, higher, higher. But obviously, the only thing, you know, that I'm interested in is what you already know, a click and correlation.
So here we have these highs right here. Also, I found the mouse, the my mouse back, so no more clicking noises for you guys. Here you can see right that I have these highs highlighted. This is the four-hour time frame. But when I go on the daily time frame, right, you can, you know, get a better look at what's happening. First of all, we can see that the Dow right is not at, you know, near, well, all-time highs as how these are, right? So the even S&P right, it's literally hovering near to all-time highs. And I say that, you know, in just by looking at the closures, right? Because that's what matters, right? So we're, we're, we're very close to the highest close, you know, of all time for the S&P and for the Nasdaq. That we're further away with the Dow. So this is indicating that there is some weakness, you know, within the marketplace. But for this weakness to be confirmed, we need to have a lower time frame cracking correlation, right?
Also, something new for you guys to study is whereas I've, I've already hinted at something, well, gave you something for W theory. If you guys, you know, manage to grasp, but if not, we'll be going over it some other time. But make sure that you're taking notes. There are 13 months, right? And I believe I've said this before, have to say this, 13 months in each yearly quarter, right? Just as how, you know, we have five days in a week, right? We have five days in a week and we use each of them, right? To, you know, measure for or, you know, get or sequential SMT, find or correlation. You, you can reflect upon each month the same way. So, for example, you can have sequential SMT between January and February, yes, between February and March, between between November and December, right? So you, you get, you get the gist of it, right? So sequence SMT and also intermarket sequence. Of course, I just say correlation. So I don't have, I'll just say a cracking correlation. So I don't have to be repeating all of that. But whenever I say a cracking correlation, right, depends on the context, you should know what I'm talking about. So cracking correlation will occur between two consecutive months, but they, they're not quarters. No. And that's why you have Dow Theory, which is, you know, a branch of Wyckoff Theory, right? So all the elements that you already know, they already learned from Wyckoff Theory, you apply that to this, and, you know, you'll see wonderful things, of course.
So with that being said, pretty sure most say you took that, wrote it down, going to study it, and you'll see we implemented whenever the market is, you know, giving us something to do. Or now, it's not. Right now, we just have price consolidating all across the board. Here, price even traded here, failed to break above this high, which, you know, it's a precision swing point. Fell barely wicked below this low. I don't even, I don't really consider this as a lower liquidity. I still consider this as sell liquidity, which, you know, I expect price to revisit if we have a cracking correlation here above this side, right? So if two of these run above this high, one fails to do so, there's a position swing point, and that will be enough. But for now, you know, basically, this is probably one, one, one of the weeks whereas, you know, I advise everyone to just remain nimble, study price action. Don't worry, the charts are not going to be going anywhere, right? It's, the charts will always, will always be here. Well, not always be here, but they won't be gone for a very long time, right? So the price will always be here. Price will be here. So just, you know, don't go inside and hurt yourself whenever we have price action like this.
If you realize, we we haven't been really paying attention to quote unquote higher time frame price action, right? Mostly what we've been focusing on is just, you know, the current final due to the fact that, yes, you know, and price has been, you know, ill or low probability for most of the year. It's just that we understand what we're doing, so it doesn't really, you know, trouble us like that. It doesn't bother us. And that's just due to the fact that we know how to expect reversals without depending on higher time frame levels. Even though when you have higher time frame levels and sequential SMT, then, you know, that would be a different ball game. That's whereas you would have the highest of probability, right? But for now, you can see that this is not high probability, right? We need price to, you know, take a low, right? Form sequence SMT on a day that has a high impact event, or take a high, form so you create SMT followed by precision swing point. Then what, what's the third thing? Then we could add SMT fill, and that will make it extremely high probability here, right?
Looking at the Euro Dollar, comparing it to the Euro and the British Pound. Ever since we, you know, got, you know, this direction correct, we caught the British Pound literally at the top, and we caught the US Dollar literally at the bottom, right? But for now, you can see that we've just been chopping around, consolidating, as I, you know, just stated, right? We've just been consolidating all across the board. So even here, look at the Euro consolidation, right? Look at the British Pound consolidation. The at the US Dollar consolidation on weeks in weeks which, you know, occurred before NFP. So week four. And this is why usually week four is such low probability, that just as how the day before NFP will not be the best day to trade, and just as how, you know, the day before CPI, so for example, CPI on Tuesday, then the Monday will be low probability. The week before NFP, it tends to be low probability as well, due to the fact that we have such high impact, you know, news drivers entering the market.
So we have this low right here for the US Dollar, which does not matter, of course, unless there's SMT and a and a precision swing point, right? It does not matter if price trades below. There's no correlation. Okay, wait until it trades below this one and then creates a lower time frame cracking correlation, right? So literally, that's, that's it for now, right? Price still looking for these highs, but waiting for, you know, price to find a foot in in the US Dollar. For now, you know, I'd advise to just, you know, continue to take pre- until, you know, we have clarity. But for now, there is no, no clarity.
Right here is something else that, you know, you will, which is quite new, and something that I realized whenever we have, you know, choppy price action all across the board, you know, Bitcoin tends to, you know, try to move, right? So anyways, here we have three. And everyone has been asking me about Bitcoin, and here it is. What's to try it for Bitcoin? First of all, and this is, you know, in case, not saying that it will happen, not saying that it won't, but in this is just algorithmically, you know, me speaking, you know, whether Ethereum is the second highest in market cap, I believe that Bitcoin will always be right, right? The standard for quote unquote cryptocurrency, right? All the face, right? So, for example, if something flipped Ethereum, then that other asset will be the second, right? But Bitcoin right here is as how we, you know, this is the S&P 500 for the crypto market. Ethereum is the second triad. And for the third triad, you want to use the total crypto cap, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. So this takes all the data from all of the altcoins, right? And just put it in, you know, one, you know, bag of information, right? So this represents most, right, all of the altcoins on average, whereas this is Ethereum, and this is Bitcoin. So whenever you're looking for a sequence SMT, you want to be comparing all three of these, right? Crypto total market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, why? Because you already have Bitcoin and Ethereum over here. We don't need that information right here, right? And by studying this, you'll see. So, for example, I did tweet right here. It's just that, you know, whenever I tweet something, I'm not going to go back and leave my chest because I don't really care. It's normal happening, right? So here I tweeted that we could, you know, see, you know, something press from above this side, then fall, which happened, right? For now, right, we could see Bitcoin right, push back, push up, right, a bit. And I'm still, you know, at what I would say is very skeptical of these highs, right?
So overall, we, of course, need to see a higher time frame sequence SMT, which, you know, we are not seeing as yet. We have a really high time frame sequence SMT within the crypto market at the moment, right? But that's between the really higher time frame cycles, so it won't be affecting, you know, the month-to-month performance of cryptocurrency, right? So we would like to see, and the even in W3, we work for crypto. So you would see SMT between two consecutive months, right here, right? And it will be more evident here and more useful here than, for example, within the, you know, US Dollar or Euro.
So I hope that you took something from today. We will be back Wednesday, hopefully, whenever there is, you know, better price action to work with. Do not, you know, treat this as punishment or, you know, be upset about anything. There are just times when the market is doing nothing, and when the market is doing nothing, we do nothing. I hope they had, you know, you have a wonderful day, and we will talk this Wednesday.