Transcription
Bitcoin's heading to $170,000 and ETH to $20,000. Those aren't my words. They're coming straight from one of the most bearish macro analysts in the world who just flipped me bullish and is now loading up on altcoins. But here's the catch.
Henrik Zeberg, head of macroeconomist at Swissblock and one of the few analysts who correctly called the 2008 great financial crisis, has built his reputation predicting market collapses and warning of depression level crashes. But today, he's making a shocking call. We're headed into a euphoric meltup right before a 2008 style crash.
"We are in what I call the blowoff top in where we're going to go uh exponentially higher. Uh Bitcoin 165, 170,000 easily uh as I see it. Um Ethereum I got uh I think it's around 17 to 20,000. I think we can hit that with Ethereum."
He has receipts to back up his claims. Henrik's models are flashing the same signals we saw just before the great 2008 financial crisis.
"It's actually completely comparable to what you saw in 2007."
And yet, he's not sitting out. In fact, he's positioning aggressively.
"I'm long. I'm long crypto right now. I'm long some of the most shitty coins you can find. Uh, which I think can have an explosive development."
He believes this cycle ends in pain. But first, a surge that could push the whole crypto market three times higher. And yes, alts a lot more than that.
"The total size of the crypto market that I'm looking into is around 12 to 13 trillion. So we are we are by no means close to this."
And he's timing it around the Fed's next move.
"I think we are seeing the Fed coming out and actually understanding that in September. And I think they're going to do more than just the 25 basis point. I think they're going to do the 50 or something or even more and and we're going to see the market just reacting like boom straight up."
If you want to understand how to ride the most powerful crypto rally of this decade and not get crushed in the collapse of what follows, this might be the most important conversation you hear all year. Guys, this was an incredible conversation. I was so happy to have it. It is eye-opening. And guys, of course, you must be following Henrik to get all of his latest macro calls. I will leave his links down below. Without further ado, let's welcome Henrik to the stage.
Henrik, welcome back to the show. Good to have you here again. Uh, right now, everybody is feeling extremely bullish. We've seen ETH absolutely ripping. Uh, today, at the time of recording, Bitcoin is getting a nice little pump as well. And we see things uh that typically show us all the tailwinds. We've got crazy corporate treasury buys of Bitcoin and Ethereum, a little bit more in a little bit, actually a lot less in things like XRP, Solana, Sushi, these kind of things. Where are we in the current market? You know, are we still uh headed in this four-year kind of market cycle? If that's the case, you know, when can we expect to see the end? You know, just kind of where are we?
Well, well, so we are in the most interesting phase for any crypto fan. I would say, you know, we are in the, we are in the alt season, in the early phases of, you call it the ETH season. I I agree with that. But we are in the phase where where Bitcoin starts to have, in the Bitcoin dominance starts to decline first, because uh capital is being attracted into Ethereum, and then we'll see that move. And then most likely, we should also then start to see uh the large cap coins token start to move. And then we'll see, you know, down the road, I think we're going to see also the memes. Um, so in that, in that respect, we are in the most interesting phase. We are in what I've called the blowoff top in where we're going to go uh exponentially higher. Uh, Bitcoin 165, 170,000 easily uh as I see it. Um, Ethereum I got uh, I think it's around 17 to 20,000. I think we can hit that with Ethereum. So we, we, we are in a very interesting phase. Uh, and we'll see a lot of that capital start to rotate also later on. So, um, so in a good phase and uh, you know, um, what we've been expecting, uh, but and here it, here it is. Uh, still some doubters out there. I think it's going to, you know, move very, very quickly higher in the next coming weeks.
And uh, and so with that being said, um, are we in kind of a different cycle as far as the four-year cycle with all these kind of institutional tailwinds? I just saw today that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September has jumped to like 99.8% or something like that. So, uh, you know, that would be the beginning of a lower interest rate era. And what we're seeing as well with, you know, US and global M2 seems to be skyrocketing. We see central banks in other places in the world cutting rates as well. And uh, you know, we've got a lot of things from the US administration like the big beautiful bill raising the debt ceiling, money coming in. Uh, Trump coming out and saying, you know, that things are going to be explosive over the next six months or something. Uh, I mean...
What's not, what's not to like if that's what you're saying? What's not to like?
Right. It sounds like, sounds like, sounds like rainbows and sunshine, right? Is that, is that what we are looking at for the next few years?
But, but that's the problem. That's the problem. We always talk about that there is the, uh, we need to see the market actually rising and, uh, and defeating the the doubts in the market and the the wall of fear and all that. We see, we hear the talk of that, and that's what we've seen with Bitcoin actually doing all the, you know, the talk now, everything is there on the table, and then you see the market move. And it can do that for quite some time. We can see the rotation of it. Bitcoin has been attracting all the capital in. But yes, to me, we are in a different phase. And the, the, the, the top, when I talk about the blowoff top, this is not based on crypto. This is based on on the on the business cycle that I study, uh, intensively, which is telling me that we are getting to the, and I was not there in '22 and saying this was a recession. I was not there in the banking, and that was when we had the inflation spike. I was not there in '23 saying that. I was not there in April of this year saying that. What I am saying is that now we're getting closer. And the thing is that we now have a an economy in the US that is actually starting to stall. And you're right, we then get the central banks coming in, and the ECB and other central banks have been in there for quite some time. And uh, you could say that's great, and that isn't what we hear every time. We hear that, oh, now they come, they will make sure that things are not starting to uh unfold in a in a negative way. But unfortunately, that's not liquidity cannot stop the business cycle. And again, we just have to, you know, I, I mean, there's been a lot of doubters as to what I say here and say, Henrik, you don't know, and this is different, and all that. When I look at it, and you can look into in history also, and I have a nice chart I can show you here as well. Um, you know, liquidity cannot stop the business cycle. And, uh, if you just bear with me for a second, if you want to see it, Kyle, I can just...
Yeah, please.
Let me just do it here. Yeah, let me just share my screen here. Share screen and we do like this and we go to uh, let me see this one. So this is the dot-com crisis, and this is the uh, this is the great financial uh recession or the the financial crisis uh in 2007 to 2009. And here you had the liquidity, the M2, you're talking about for the Fed, the the ECB, the People's Bank of China, and the uh, Japan, Japanese central bank, also Bank of Japan. And you see how it's rising here. It was not so strong here because also the more shallow recession actually we had, but you saw the stock market, it dropped a lot by 50%. Or, and even the NASDAQ dropped by 85%. See, this time we into the financial crisis, it actually rose much quicker, the uh, the money supply, but you still have a recession. And the thing is that when the business cycle, which I follow, which is here, you had a signal right here for me, and you had a signal here, and I can show you that as well. This is the business cycle I'm talking about right here. This is from early July. Every time for the last 50, 70, actually 70 years, but here we only got 50 some years. Every time my leading indicators has been rolling over, you get a rollover of what is called the coincident, which is employment, manufacturing level, and so on. And I've said long time that when we get this crossover, and we did that in November '24, that's the time when the countdown starts. If you go back to the financial crisis, you actually had in November 2006, you had the same kind of crossover. The recession didn't start there, but it led to the crossover of the coincident indicator, which was in November 2007, and the recession started then, one month. Now we have had this crossover some time ago, and if we go even further in and look at that, we can now see that with the uh, the down revisions on the revisions, lower of the non-farm payrolls, we now have the touchdown of the coincident indicators, which is, which is the same thing we have seen here, here, and here. And if we go back in time and say, oh yeah, but then they will make sure by, you know, liquidity making sure that this is not going to give us a recession. Well, I think we'll have to face that this time will not be different. So I think unfortunately, we are in a situation where, um, everybody will think that the Fed can can change the rule, can change the path of the economy, and that's unfortunately not how it works. That's the talk of the town. But the problem is right now in the US and elsewhere also, is that we have had inflation. We have yields going moving up. So people are up to their necks in terms of, you know, just paying bills. You can see the, there is also some surveys on people actually, you know, just having difficulties in in in in in buying food. That level is now at 15.6%, which is higher than into the financial crisis. So this is not a situation where people are feeling good in the in the US or elsewhere. I have to say as well, because of the high yields and the high, because the US is just still the the big brother of the world, that, you know, anywhere the US goes, the rest of the world goes. So if you see that, you'll actually see that the the real economy is stalling. And we saw that with the job numbers also, they had to revise the May, June, and July, and the July number was also really bad. So if that rolls over, as according to my business model, unfortunately, there's not much much we can do. And now we have the euphoria which we have because liquidity is starting to flow in the M2, as you correctly said, has been going up, and that will create it until the moment that reality, which is the real, real uh economy, unfortunately, hits the wall. And I think we are really close to that, which means that my, the crossover here needs to be confirmed by end of September, and if it, because that's the time to move out of markets, as according to my model.
What, what causes, what's the underlying cause of uh of that correction? It's, you know, is it, is it basically the fact that the majority of people just can't afford to spend anymore, and so therefore you're going to get a slowdown in earnings and revenue across all the major companies and just essentially restaurants and all spending in general? Because I, I did, I think in the show that I made yesterday or something, we also covered, um, that buy now pay later has gone through the roof. Uh, personal, like, personal and median household debt is increasing, credit card debt is still on the rise. So these things all seem to kind of line up with what you're saying.
Yeah, we, we have exactly that situation. And I have yet another, um, chart I can show you, but you can look at the delinquency rates for credit cards, for car loans, and whatever. They are moving up, and they are moving up in a similar manner like what we saw into 2008. So the situation is not, what was it, what is it that, you know, what is the triggering factor? It's like one thing that's how the human brain likes to work. We need to have one thing because that's what we can remember. The situation is in the real economy that it's a a plethora of different things that is diff that's that's happening. It's really about the bottom part of this, you know, the real consumers, the 70% of the lowest income. And when they start to feel, you know, difficulties of just making ends meet on a daily basis, they will stop spending. And that is then slowly seeping into the rest of the economy. And then especially where at times when you have like in the US, and again, you live there, so you know better than I do, but I'm looking at the charts and the numbers, you have a housing market right there now, which is frozen solid. The number of, of, of, of mortgage applications is down the gutter. The housing affordability is down the gutter, which means that people are have been struggling to, you know, make to to refinance. That's okay, you can live with that until the moment if you start to lose your job. And unfortunately, now we start to see that development in the job market. It's actually completely comparable to what you saw in 2007. So, and on top of this, this time around, because in 2001 we had a tech tech bubble, and in 2008 we had a real estate bubble, and we had a what is called a balance sheet recession. This time around, you have the largest bubble ever by the Warren Buffett indicator, you say market capitalization to GDP, it's 226, 30% almost. If you include also the crypto market, 230%. In 2007, it was at 108%. In 1929, it was at 89%. In 2000, which was the huge bubble we had back then, the tech bubble, it was at 136%. We are almost, you know, going for the double the size of the tech bubble. That's what we're closing in on. Not really there yet, but we're getting in there. So, so I'm just saying, let's not fool ourselves. We have an economy that is not strong and is slowly starting to seep in as well also to the Fed, it seems. But they have been way agreeing with Trump there. They should have cut long ago. There's no inflation in the system. The problem is that has not happened, and we are now heading towards that wall. Unfortunately, I don't hope it's happen. I hope I take, I hope I'm I'm wrong, but I just don't think I will be.
What about the the things that Trump is talking about? The fact that he says he's brought in, I don't know what the actual number is, but he's, I think I think I heard him say that he was brought in $17 trillion in foreign investment United States that they're bringing all these companies back on shore. Uh, do you think that something like that could change? Because that's going to lead to new job growth and creation? I don't know how quickly they can convert that money into actual numbers. But...
Correct.
Yeah. But, but I don't know. I don't know how much he has been able to bring in these investments are correct or anything. I'm not arguing with that at all. What I'm saying is that we have a situation that is unfolding right now. And the problem is with the Fed that the moment they're just sitting and waiting for if something happens in the job market, we will be ready to act. Guess what? They were standing there on Wednesday talking about, oh, we, we need to have a kind of a hawkish stance. And on Friday, the Friday after, we actually saw that they had to revise the numbers going all the way back to May. They are not on top of their things. They're not on top of the game. They don't, they don't see this. And the problem is the job market starts to move before. And it's like with a super tanker when it turns, it takes quite a lot of momentum to turn it the other way. So you can easily get three, six, nine, 12 months worth of uh, really bad times because that's what it takes for the when the super tanker turns, and it is turning. It's really clearly turning, as you said also, the other central banks of the world have been there, you know, already for a long time. There's such a divergence between what you see in the ECB, who normally are very, very conservative. We have to think about, you know, uh, because of, you know, Germans, Germany's uh, past with the hyperinflation in the 20s, so they are really conservative about that. And actually, the ECB is way, way ahead in terms of cutting rates compared to the Fed. The Fed has been, as I said, alone, they are so far behind, it's unbelievable. And it's, uh, and the problem is it's going to hit like a hammer. And then when they see it, it's too late. And the market will have topped into a blowoff top that I called, which I think we are seeing right now as developing. Uh, and, uh, unfortunately, not much to to be done about it. If the, the, the, the jobs come in with with investments and so on, fine, great. But as you said, it takes a while. And by the end of the day, it's really about what the consumer is doing. Because if the consumer doesn't spend, it's not like a lot of businesses just will say, oh, I, I want to build new business. They will look at what is the market demand there, and then they will start to invest in a certain direction. But if the market demand is pulling back because of the situation with interest rates, inflation, and so on, well, then we're heading into bad waters, or we are actually sinking, as I see it. And I think this time is different. This time, different. Normally, I mean, the same, this time it's not different because it's never different. It's, but different in the way that if we look to the inflation regime, and I actually also have a chart there, and maybe just can I can just, uh, find it here, then, okay. So, so this is the, what we're looking at here is the 10-year yield. It's going all the way back to the 1920s. And if you look at it here, we have, you know, moves up, and we have move down, we have moves up and down and up. What we're looking at is that for a certain amount of time, you'll have a deflationary regime. That means that everything is pushing down lower in terms of yields. And you can actually observe that for as long as we're down here in momentum wise, well, inflation is low, and yields are pushing lower. Then happens when you see is that shift here, and it moves up to a higher level here in the green area. You can definitely see that that's going on. A higher shift here, and then you just stay up here. That's when you have an inflationary regime. Then you see the crossover, and we stay down in this area here. Then we have had a long-term deflationary regime with what we saw in, uh, the 2020 with Corona, and in, and with, uh, every central banks of the world and administration coming out and stimulating into a supply chain crisis. Well, that created a new inflation. They reintroduced inflation.
And that's why we now see clearly here, if you can see, we're now moved up here again. We moved up in this upper area again, and that is a very serious thing. That means inflation is in the long term. And that's like also what Glas and others are saying, we will have a rising yields, a rising inflation. So where we need to be careful, you know, understanding is that it's going to look something like this, potentially. I don't think it's going to go straight up. And I think a recession is going to take it down first. But I think the new bull trend in inflation and in yields has started. And that is a, that's why I'm saying it's a completely different situation this time. Because if you were in that kind of environment, you can just go back and ask our granddads and say, hey, granddad, what happened? You know, what happens if you are stimulating the economy, you're just coming in with a lot of money printing? They will say you get inflation, because that's what they saw in the 70s. Well, we have that kind of environment now. So if we're thinking that, you know, Powell can come out and say, you know, why, you know, just wave his little magic stick and say, I'll just print some my money, or, you know, do QE or whatever they're going to call it, um, you're going to get another situation. You're going to get inflation. That is the way the the economy reacts, because it's not just a single state kind of thing, and it reacts the same way. It can shift gears and it can shift into a new, and we are new in a new inflationary machine. And that new inflationary regime will change the game for the central banks. They simply overdid it with money printing.
Yeah. And that means that now we are in a situation where that is a problem for us, because they now been taken that tool out. The the free lunch is taken away from them, and they cannot just let any longer do that. I'm sure they will try to, but I'm also sure that they're going to get another result. And unfortunately, I think that's going to prolong the crisis. So in an inflationary regime, in a, in a, in a crash first, and then the Fed comes in, and you don't get the kind of, you know, response from the economy. And you can also think about what happens if if Fed comes out and do the money printing, they try to lower yields. Okay, let's say Mrs. Johnson there in the US, she, she saves, I don't know, $300 a month for on her mortgage loan or something like that. I don't know what the level will be. Will she then, with everything she is now in in her backhead in terms of inflation, in terms of yields, and in terms of potentially also unemployment moving up, will she go spend those money? That that money? Or will she maybe hold back on it? If she holds back the money printing, the QE becomes impotent. It doesn't work because the thinking is she spends it, then somebody has to go to work to, you know, produce that, and then, you know, he earns money, and then you have the positive sale cycle going. If that slows down, which it already has, we can see that the the marginal output of any extra money printed or, you know, balance sheet, uh, uh, you know, raised, you can see that that has actually, you know, produced a less output. If that happens, and it slows even more, well, then you're not going to get that positive response, and the economy will then slow for longer. So, I think you're going to see that the the Fed will come out, but it's not going to get the response that they probably hoped for. And that's the problem this time around. That's why I think it's different this time.
But isn't, isn't uh Bitcoin supposed to be the ultimate hedge against inflation? And, uh, wouldn't that even make the, the saying even more true that Bitcoin has no ceiling because fiat has no floor?
But how, how did Bitcoin do during the inflation spike in '22? It dropped from 60, 65,000 to for to 15,000,000.
Right, but we were in a different environment then too. We, we had zero, uh, institutional adoption, more or less, no ETFs, no corporate treasury buys, and no idea that there potentially would be a, a world reserve asset or treated as such. So, do, do you think that, like, I understand that a slowing, slowing growth cuts consumer spending, not good for business. But Bitcoin doesn't rely on business, right? It's a, you know, it's a different kind of asset supposed to be. It's been heavily correlated to to the S&P and stocks to to date, essentially. Uh, yeah.
But I, I wonder if...
Eventually, it will become less of a risk asset and more of a store of value kind of asset where, you know, I mean, what, like, so I'd like you to answer that question, and then if it's not Bitcoin, like, where, where does, let's say that everyone's able to accumulate a good amount of wealth over the next, you know, couple months or something like that, because we are seeing this crazy bubble as you're saying.
Mh. Mhm. You...
Know, the next question is, where does someone allocate to?
Yeah. But let's just, I mean, if people are saying that Bitcoin all of a sudden has changed behavior. Well, we don't see that yet. We see that Bitcoin is overperforming NASDAQ to the downside and to the upside. I don't see Bitcoin as any, there's any behavior in Bitcoin here, apart from the, apart from the narrative that tells me that there is a new behavior to Bitcoin. I hear the talk of it, and that's what you hear in crypto, in in in bubbles. You hear the talk that this time is different.
But you don't see it. You see Bitcoin doing really well when the NASDAQ is doing well. That is that the correlation between the two is just, you know, phenomenal. So I, I don't, I don't see it. I see people talking about it, but as we also started out by saying, all the good things are now on the table.
I mean, I can hardly imagine any more tailwind to it.
Yeah. So would we expect, would we expect at, if I'm right that we're heading into a major top, and by the way, also the Bitcoin cycle top, uh, in a four-year cycle, right? That we see a, all of a sudden that Bitcoin breaks out of all of that and starts moving up? Or will we see Bitcoin crash? And unfortunately, and I'm not pro or against or anything like that, I'm just saying, I think Bitcoin is going to crash harder than it's done before. And I think that because this time around, you actually get a recession. You get a balance sheet recession. You get a recession we haven't seen before. Bitcoin hasn't seen a recession before, but the NASDAQ has seen a recession before. And if Bitcoin acts like NASDAQ did in 2000, where NASDAQ fell 85%, and we have a bigger bubble this time around, then you can say Bitcoin is outperforming NASDAQ to the upside and to the downside. Why would I expect from what I see right now with the facts on the table that Bitcoin would outperform the NASDAQ? I don't think it will. Yeah, it will outperform it to the downside, I'm afraid. So, I think we got a massive decline coming. I don't hope for it. I don't want to, you know, the discussion with any diehards on that, but I can just say I don't see the writing on the wall in terms of the facts we have in front of us telling me that this time it will be different.
So, where do people go? Well, you know, there's one thing that will be in the need of that will be dollars. US dollars, because US dollars is where the main part of, you know, the world's debt is denominated in. So, what happens is that you will see first a suction hole opening up. If this bubble bursts, meaning companies will go bankrupt. There will be domino effects and so on. You've got a, you know, credit events, and there will be a suction effect. And to to cover that, to to, you know, that that would be needed dollars in order to to make sure that uh loans are refinanced or, you know, closed or whatever it is. US dollars. And I know that's not what people like to hear, but the fact is the US dollar has been in an uptrend since 2008. Since they started the QE, has not been in an uptrend, it's been an uptrend. So I'm just saying, I think the business cycle is going to tell us we're hitting the wall soon. Not here yet, still seeing the explosive to move in this right around the time of the four-year cycle. I think we're going to see a major top, and I think it's going to make great suction where the US dollar is going to be very, very strong. And for some time, there will not be many alternatives.
Yeah, you know, there's probably also a reason why some great investors are starting to say, well, maybe we should get out of risk assets. Warren Buffett is up at 30% in cash right now, which is higher to his assets portfolio than, you know, cashwise than he's ever been before. Uh, maybe, maybe there is a reason for that.
How long do you expect the the crash to to last?
I think the Fed is going to react again. And as as everybody says, Henrik, but you, you don't understand, the Fed is going to react. Sure, but you are in a different environment. And I unfortunately do not see any signs that the Fed has learned from anything or understand this. I mean, they did not see inflation coming. They did not see the last big recession coming in 2008. I mean, and they don't see the the problems in the economy right now, and they still are hawkish on it. So, why would I expect that they all of a sudden, you know, get their things right? I think they're going to try to react in the way they normally do and say, "Hey, we get a crash. We can put some money into it." By the way, I mean, you know, Ben, he got the Nobel Prize for understanding printing money again. So, I don't think you're going to see that they're going to react anything differently from that. So, so they're going to throw money at the at the fire. The problem is this is a new inflationary regime. So I think they're going to also, because you don't get this, the if the Mrs. Johnson there doesn't start to spend the money she saves, well, then you can get that it's a prolonged crisis you're going to see. And I think they can probably even trigger stagflation, which will be worse. So I think you're going to see a kind of a whips. You're going to see the crash. You're going to see the Fed come in. Everybody thinks it's fine, but I think you're going to see stagflation. And there's no doubt in my mind that no risk asset is going to like stagflation at all. That's, that's going to be a bad time. I mean, that's where, you know, expectivity is shrinking while you see money going, uh, the prices going up. That's not good for any risk asset. So I, I, I see that you have a, we have a very difficult situation in front of us. But hey, who would have thought that money printing would come to something bad at the end? I mean, if it was so easy, why wouldn't we see, you know, politicians, you know, central banks, and so on, have done this before and say, hey, we just need to print money, then it'll all be all fine? Guess what? It has happened before, and every time they've done that, we've seen the problems coming out of that. It started all the way back in French Revolution, the French re, you know, the French did that back then in those days, and you got inflation coming out of it. So, of course, you're going to get inflation, and inflation is going to be born, maybe in a stagflationary environment, and I think it's going to be hard for all risk assets. So, how long, I'm saying, you know, the first decline can be nine months, six months, nine months, depends on when the Fed really enters with something. We get a bounce in the market again, bounce in Bitcoin as well, and then you're going to see the the bad one, which is when stagflation begins. So I think it can be a prolonged thing, double, you know, twice as long as the financial crisis or something.
So, what's your plan?
My plan, my plan is to to ride this this. Yeah.
And, yeah, sorry. What's your plan? And when do you, uh, what are you looking at as far as your exit signs?
I, um, I'm long. I'm long crypto right now. I'm long some of the most shitty coins you can find. Uh, which I think can have an explosive development.
Yeah. I am, I am long Ethereum holding companies as well. I think they can do fantastic here over the next few months. Um, I am aware of the situation and I am ready to pull out when I think we're going to hit the, uh, the top. I have some some Fibonacci levels on my my technical analysis that I I look to 7500 on the S&P, and I look to, but it's actually across the board. There will be a lot of targets that need to be reached, and then I'll be looking for when we start to see the reaction in the, uh, in the yields market, and the yields market will actually not be going up, but it'll be going down. And when the short-term yield starts to drop fast, that's a tell sign that things are starting to unfold, and we are getting closer to that point. I know people talking about the long-term yields, that's because again, in the business cycle, yields, long-term yields are lacking the business cycle, which means that what they see in terms of those is what we saw in the business cycle three to six months ago, and the economy was still strengthening there and still strong. Now, we're going to see something different. So, that's why I'm, I'm, I'm looking out for the yields to start, the short-term yields to start to drop fast, yield spread starting to spike, uh, and the, uh, initial claims on the job market start to spike up. That's the moment where I think the the economy is close to. But in terms of the, I think the the Bitcoin cycle whenever that top is is due for, I think that is a pretty good, I good time indicator for when this can start to, uh, to unfold, when the top will be there. Remember, nobody actually at the top will feel the top. And any pullback in the beginning, 5, 10%, people will say, "Oh, yeah, but that's just a pullback."
Uh, and, uh, it'll come up soon again, and then it'll bounce, and then people say, "Oh, now it's bouncing, and we, you know, we're getting to new highs all soon." And then it'll just be later. So it can go six months before people really realize that this was the top, right? So I think you know around the Bitcoin top, uh, Bitcoin cycle top where it's, you know, due for, then I think that could be around the time where we should look to, uh, to get get look for the exit doors.
And so do you have, you said you have some like Fibonacci numbers in mind? Is that, is that what you're looking at? What do you expect the top of the cycle for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be?
Around, as Ethereum around 17 to 20,000. I think 17,000, there's a bit. So we can be, it'll be like an explosive move here. And, uh, it actually goes really well hand-in-hand with my 170,000 on on Bitcoin-ish area, uh, because there is a also a the ratio which seems like it can move to 0.1, the Ethereum Bitcoin ratio, around 0.1, maybe 0.12, uh, so that means around that area. And, um, yeah, when we there, uh, you know, make the best of it in until that until that moment, because we know it's a zero-sum game. This, it's a zero-sum game, which means that there will be a lot of of losers in this, unfortunately.
So, all right. So, now let's get into discussing, like, what the next couple months look like and how we maximize that. You said you have a lot of coins and, uh, and some some more, you know, more risky assets. How do you make your decision on which one of these ones to go into and you think that will perform the best?
Again, based on, uh, Fibonacci levels, uh, Elliot wave analysis. How far do I think they can they can run? And then I stick to it. So I say, I, I kind of memorize that chart, you know, in and out, and try to see if I can also make the hypothesis of how it it will going to to develop. And there are some Fibonacci levels that when you start to see that they, it's actually obeying these levels, meaning that there'll be a kind of a correction there, and then the next level there, and it corrects there, well, then you can start to to trust that, uh, that level. And, uh, yeah, then I have, so there are certain that I, I, they, I hold and will, you know, see how good they they they run and how far they, if they can actually get to those levels. But, but this, the total size of the crypto market that I'm looking into is around 12 to 13 trillion. So we are, we are by no means close to this. And this is where it's so difficult to talk about something that is such, so much higher than where we are now. We were at 3 trillion until, you know, that was the top in '21. Now we're just about four trillion, I think, in right about around this time.
Yeah. Yeah. But, but the thing is, it can go so quick. And the last phase of this can be so, so fast. And I don't think people really realize how fast it has happened before also. And especially because this time around, actually, to me, and also to my, you know, very experienced crypto colleagues in in, uh, the Swiss block, it actually seems like, uh, it's a 2017 kind of event more than it's a 2021 kind of scenario we are unfolding.
Right, right. Which, if anyone was around in 2017, that was a very fun time to be in crypto.
You were there.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
I was, I didn't, I was not.
Yeah. It was wild. But, um, but that seemed to last a little bit longer than a couple months in that kind of very euphoric phase.
Yeah, it did. It did. But the, if you look into the last few, few months of that, I think there is a 400% something on the altcoins in, uh, two to three months. And I think that is what we can look into. I mean, that's that's the kind of the size we need for the for the crypto market to reach that kind of top. But it also has lasted, I mean, we, we, we could just look at it. I mean, the the bottom in Bitcoin was in, uh, in, was it December or January? No, December of '22, right? Was it, maybe correct me, somewhere around there.
Yeah, that was the B. That's FTX.
So we have been, we have been on this journey for quite some time. And now Ethereum starting to catch up and is, you know, moving quite quite fast. So I think the catch-up can can be quite, you know, rapid here. And I think the rotation into into other coins here will also start to happen. You'll see some of the more the bigger ones, large caps, and then you'll see the next one coming. And by the end of it, it'll be all euphoria. And so, so I think, but again, timewise, I, I'm looking for the levels in terms of, you know, various, uh, Bitcoin and so on, and the structures start to develop. And then, and another thing on Bitcoin, I just have to say, if anybody looks at a weekly chart, and you don't know anything about technical analysis, and you look at the divergence you have on a weekly chart, it tells you that we now have been going on since March of before, and we have not seen a new high on the RSI. Actually, the RSI tops are lower and lower. And that means that we are not seeing a strengthening market, despite all the talk of that. You are technically seeing a weaker market, but you're seeing higher levels in a weakening market. I know it can be difficult to understand, but the the the force of the current in a like in a river is not as strong as it was in '24 into that top. It has been weaker, but the levels are higher, and that's simply because people take on more risk, but there's not as much force behind it as it was into '24 of the March top. That is also noticeable because that was a lot lower than where we are now.
We've seen, I guess, over the past few weeks, uh, or the past month or so, uh, Ethereum really has has dominated. So we see, you know, I'm looking at the chart now, the past 30 days, Bitcoin has completely stayed flat. ETH is up 53%. And of the top 100, uh, nothing really. I mean, Athena has outperformed, but mostly Ethereum outperformed all coins. And I think that Ben Cowan showed a really cool chart, too. You know, being explicitly clear that, you know, we're in ETH season, not in alt season right now. How much longer do you expect us to be in this ETH outperforming alts? Uh, until we see that real rotation into alts where it starts out, they they start outperforming ETH?
So I think we have, as I'm working with a timeline that's saying around 10 weeks, which means until the end of October. That's a lot of things is suggesting that that could be kind of the timeline. And I'm looking also at a chart where Ethereum with the current, uh, Fibonacci levels is going to reach around, reach around 6,400, and we're going to see a pullback from there. And I think you're going to see a quite strong pullback. So in September, when you see a pullback,
I don't think that's it. I don't think that's the top. I think that is the pullback.
But I also think we're going to see the, and I, I, I'm, I'm speculating here, that we actually are in the days here of the most powerful move in, uh, Ethereum, actually. Yeah, we have seen that already. But going into, let's say, Jackson Hole, Jackson Hole, sorry. Uh, which is on 21st of August, I think it is. They, they, we have the, uh, the Powerland, the rest of the, sorry.
The SALT summit, is that what that is?
It's called, Jackson Hole is a, they like a yearly summit that they, uh, summit of the, you know, meeting that they have with the Fed, right?
And, uh, that's say the, uh, I think they normally come out and have some kind of announcement around that. And I could see that we actually move fast into around that timeline, and then I could see the decline, perhaps maybe as a narrative starting out, perhaps from that around time frame, and then into the FOMC, which is around September, where we could see the F Fed coming out and cutting. And I think I said it also on Twitter two weeks, a week ago, week ago, I said, I think the Fed is going to go do a double cut, at least 50 basis points. Now, you know, whatever, you know, they said the other day, now everybody thinks if it's 25, is is there, but it was doubtful even just a week ago, right? I say 50 basis points already two weeks ago.
And I think I did that because I think the Fed is starting to realize how, how far behind they are with the numbers that we saw on the job. They are actually looking at historic numbers now that is is really bad. And even the July number can be also be revised to the downside. And we have no inflation. There's no inflation in the system. I mean, whether it's 2.7 or...
2.0. Honestly, that is not the problem. The problem is if it starts to go above 3, 3.5, 4%, 5%. That's a problem. 2.7. We have been in great periods of time in and during history where you have had two 2.7% inflation, not a problem for the economy. So talking about micromanaging the inflation level around 2.7 is simply, you know, stupidity to me. So I think we are seeing the Fed coming out and actually understanding that in September, and I think they're going to do more than just the 25 basis point. I think they're going to do the 50 or something or even more. And and we're going to see the market just reacting like boom, straight up. So the straight that phase.
And now back to your question, because your question was when then the real old phase >> right >> from that point on. I think that's the I think that's the trigger, and I think the narrative then will be the Fed's got our back. What can go wrong? They can just print our way out of it. And as we know from the first chart I showed you, they cannot. But that will be the talk of the town, and that's why we're going to head into a stratosphere with with a lot of all coins and meme coins and so on. And the rotation will just, you know, go. I see >> Henrik. So, I think, uh, you know, obviously, uh, we're going to leave your social links in the description below. So, everyone make sure you guys go follow Henrik as well.
But, uh, for those who are watching this who want to stay on top of things themselves and not not always, you know, go and look at other, you know, people's ex accounts or YouTube videos, who really want to kind of try to get a hold of this, like where do you recommend that they, they're what are they looking at, you know, to try to figure out and see? I mean, is this something that someone who doesn't have a lot of experience with charts and stuff like that can actually, what are some good resources that they can look at to see kind of to gauge when we might be looking to kind of call it a quits or, you know, take take profit in the cash at that point?
>> I mean, first of all, I mean, just feel the sentiment. If you feel like that you hardly can say anything negative about crypto or Bitcoin, then probably it's because, you know, everybody in the same, you're standing in the same side of the boat, like everybody else. And when everybody's already over there, maybe it's not the right place to stand. I'm not saying it's that's the situation right now. It's building, but we're not there. But feel the sentiment. That's why also we have, you know, when there's B on the street, you know, buy, and when there is, you know, euphoria, sell.
Um, look to what Warren Buffett has done. He's raised the most capital ever. 30% of his assets is now in in in in in dollars. Why? In cash. Why? Probably because he sees something. Oh, but he doesn't understand it. Well, we actually are looking into a slowdown of things. So, I think sometimes you actually need to do the work. You need to look for yourself. If you if you trust somebody, if you trust you, me, somebody else, uh, fine, but we can be mistaken. The best thing is to go and look yourself. And I think the the writing is on the wall, and it's about, uh, taking a good hard look at it and not go with the euphoria and then just stepping back a bit and say, hey, if I have to use the the quote, this time is different, to actually understand what is going on then, and to understand the bullish case, well, then maybe I'm in the wrong side of the boat. And again, I don't know who who to follow. You can follow me or or anybody else, but, uh, >> I would be careful into this, but I'm, as I said, crazy bullish here. I don't want to make any mistake, you know, this. I'm crazy bullish right here. >> okay, cool. Is there anything else that you, uh, think we should cover that we haven't yet?
>> No, I think, uh, good talk. And, uh, again, I don't, I don't want to be the bearer of bad news. Let me just say like that, and I'm not a perma perma bear. I can tell you, I think last time I was on, I was also saying, I think we're going to get into this kind of phase, and we're going to see, but I am, uh, realist istic. So I, I don't like to be the bear of bad news news.
>> Well, I think it's a really, really, really important that we have some sobering, uh, sobering discussions in the time, especially. I'd love to have you on, like, at least once a month moving forward so we can update this. Um, because, you know, I've said it many times on the channel before, is when you get into this very euphoric stage and your portfolio is crazy, and you're just showing it off to everybody, and, you know, and and you just feel so rich. Um, you know, that moment in time is what we all look back on who have been here multicycle and just think, man, this this time I should, you know, say, take some profits up there.
Um, and I also think it's worth saying that, you know, people should measure who who are here for multicycle, measure your net worth and your in your portfolio from, uh, trough to trough, not peak to peak, you know, because it's not about how much money you once had. It's about how much money you can keep in these crypto cycles. And so agree.
>> I think this, you know, for me and my viewers on this channel, it's it's it's very important that we continue, no matter how good we're feeling, how how euphoric we are, to always have a reality check and, uh, and make sure that, you know, we're we're looking at these other things other than just what, you know, digging past the surface and looking at the business cycle, like you say, and earnings and what's going on with the real data. So Henrik, thanks for, uh, the the video. Really, really interesting. And, yeah, we'd love to have have you back on, you know, next month or something.
>> Thank you, K.