Transcription
About once a month, I'll make a public video, and this is going to be the one for January, I guess. Um, so a couple of things.
Um, first off, clearly we are in a parabolic move in gold, and silver looks very similar. Um, you know, a lot of people are going to stick their head in the sand and try and ignore this, but but anytime a market does this, it's setting up for, um, a bubble phase and a crash. These these always crash. And usually, they will come back down and test, um, like the breakout from where the parabolic move began. So, in this case, it would be, you know, roughly around 2000s where the the breakout occurred, maybe a little above that, 2100.
Um, now, um, a couple of factors here. The, um, so let me point out the 8-year cycle lows. We we had one here in, um, 2009, I think it was, or maybe it was 2008. Uh, we had one towards the end of 2015, and we had this one here in, uh, 20, in October of '22. So we're about halfway through this 8-year cycle. Now, you know, at some point here, we're going to have to have the declining phase of the cycle. Um, and it will be due to bottom in in 2030.
So, um, you know, there there's no doubt that that we're in the end ending phase of this 20, take your pick. You know, we we double-bottomed in '99 and 2001. So, you know, 25, 27-year bull market. Um, this was the first phase of the bull market. Cyclical bare market that separated the two phases, and then we start the next phase. Um, a lot of basing. We get this cup and handle, and we get a a move down into the 8-year cycle low that makes a lower yearly cycle low, and then we kick off. We test the the all-time highs, back off, break out, start the parabolic move.
Um, now here's where I I think things may be different. Uh, generally, when when you get a parabolic move and the end of a long-term bull market, uh, it can take years and even a decade or more before uh the market can recover and and make new highs again. I'm starting to question as to whether or not it's going to take that long for metals to recover when when this all collapses. Um, again, the the bottom is going to be due in in uh 2030, and we will have some kind of massive collapse off this this parabolic move. The last uh secular uh bare market that topped in 1980, it took well, whatever this is, 20, 25 years, something like that, um, to come back up and and make new highs. I'm starting to question whether or not it will take nearly that long to recover from the, um, bare market when when this whole parabolic structure collapses.
Maybe it's only going to take, uh, the, you know, I I suspect we're going to top this year, um, because we're we're getting, um, we're getting a bit late in this, well, we're getting about almost four years into this 8-year cycle. And so, um, like I said, we got to have time for the collapsing phase. So there'll be an an initial huge crash. People will try and buy the dip. You'll get a bounce, and then you'll start stairstepping down, and it'll take, uh, you know, surely a year or more to get to that final bottom again that'll be due in uh 2030. Um, but that that actually may be it. It it may, you know, instead of a 25-year bare market, we may only need a 4-year, uh, three or four-year bare market. And then we might start another, uh, secular bull market, uh, in 2030. Um, presumably once we test this, uh, support zone here, let's call it between 2000 and 2100.
Um, so you you know, it may not take that long, um, for, uh, well, it it's going to seem long in real time because it'll it'll be, you know, at least two or three or four years working its way down into this final in the final bottom in in 2030. But, um, it may not be that we've got to churn around for 20 years before this recovers. It may recover quickly. And I'm kind of basing that on what what has happened in Bitcoin. It's had a couple of, uh, bubbles that have, um, popped and produced, you know, the standard 70 to 90% decline, but Bitcoin recovers pretty quickly from those. And I'm starting to wonder if that's not going to be the case as well, uh, with, uh, gold.
And one of the the factors I think that might, um, have something to to do with that is the stock market, which, um, by 2030, I think this secular bull market will be over, and we've got, ideally, we've got a four-year cycle low that's going to come due maybe towards the latter part of '26, and then we'll have, um, you know, one more four-year cycle that'll probably top within two years. So basically left translated, and then I think a the first part of a secular bare market will take us down into into a bottom in 2030, which which lines up with that, um, timing band for the 8-year cycle low in gold. And we've seen this happen before when you get when you get, um, these major multi-year cycles when they all line up together, you get, you know, a, um, an extreme, uh, panic selling event.
And so we've got an 8-year cycle low due for gold in 2030, and we've got probably the first leg down in a secular bare market for stocks in 2030. And that kind of selling pressure, uh, could definitely, you know, take gold down to 2000. You know, no, no telling where the stock market would go to. I'm, you know, pretty sure it's the first leg down's going to go quite a ways down below 4000. You know, we might even go back down to 3000 or 2500, um, during that massive selling event. Um, but the u the stock market would then enter a secular bare market that, you know, they generally, you know, this one lasted about what, 9 years. So you'd you'd expect something similar. So that, you know, the first leg down, and then you got a lot of chopping, but, you know, not making new highs. And in the meantime, um, a new secular bull market would be, um, born in gold, and rather than taking 25 years to recover like the last one did, uh, this one may recover much, much faster.
So something to be aware of, you know, and and the major concern is, you know, don't stick your head in the sand and ignore the warning signs. This this is a parabolic move. It's an ending move in a, you know, well, this bull market started here. Let's just call it 2021. This is a, you know, a 20 to 27-year bull market. This is very mature. In a in a parabolic move like this, the these things always collapse, and they almost always retrace all the way back to the beginning of the the parabolic phase. And this is, you can see this is this is where the angle of, um, of the, um, bull market just changed radically to, you know, a vertical linear move straight up.
So, um, you know, be aware. We're we're almost certainly in the last year of this bull market, and we're probably going to have three or four years of of bare market, but it may be over much quicker than than what we would expect if we use the template from the 1980 top, uh, as as a guide. We may not have to wait nearly as long before the next, uh, secular bull market starts because I think once stocks enter a secular bare market, then, um, um, liquidity is going to look for a someplace else to land on, and it'll it's probably going to land in the commodity market. So, um, just may not take quite as long as what I think a lot of people would expect for a secular bare market in gold once once this parabolic structure collapses and once we get our final bottom in 2030.