Transcription
What's going on, guys? It's Killer. Welcome back to the channel.
Now, this is going to be a different video from what I usually post, and we're going to be looking at a key pattern which I've observed through Bitcoin's cycles. Now, you're probably all familiar with the halving, the four-year cycles, three bull years, and one bear year, and just the basic four-year cycle that Bitcoin goes through. And I want to share my thoughts because the pattern which I'm seeing here is we are seeing a significant shift in the timing of the cycles. We are performing things quicker than usually and this is going to eventually change this 4-year cycle which everybody's observing. Right? Think of it as a sequence where the numbers are significantly changing each time. So in today's video I'm going to be covering this pattern. I'm going to be covering where we could possibly project a new all-time high for Bitcoin based off this pattern. So, let's get started.
So, you're all familiar with the halvings. We have our halving. We have our parabolic move. Halving, parabolic move. Halving. You can see this time around we had some consolidation, but we did have a move towards the upside. So, to clarify where I believe we are in the cycle, we are definitely approaching that bottoming zone. Right? But we can see from historical context here that we are usually within a range for about 200 days before obviously having that impulse break of structure and then a push upwards. Right? And in this case we can see our cycle here. It took 212 days before obviously Bitcoin started to go parabolic. We had 181 days here of consolidation before this upwards trend. Obviously, we had our COVID-19 capitulation wick, but in terms of where we actually bottomed around, it was within a 180-day interval, which was around 6 months. So, if we look at the position of where Bitcoin is now and we measure 6 months based off our last capitulation candle, this would put us at around August, September period.
Now, I've mentioned on my X that I do think we are going to bottom sooner and I do think we are going to top sooner, but there's math behind it. This isn't just a bold claim and I'm going to be covering the pattern which obviously I'm observing here. But based on where we are positioned in the cycle, we are definitely in this bottoming zone. We could spend 6 months here before obviously pushing towards the upside.
Now in terms of the pattern which I've observed here is we are going to be looking at how long it takes Bitcoin to create a new all-time high after breaking its previous all-time high. So in this case it took 1,216 days to break a new all-time high during this cycle. We can see the next cycle it took 1,096 days. We can see a slight difference in how quickly it took Bitcoin to create a new all-time high. Now, if we look at this cycle, it took 850 to 882 days to break a new all-time high. The reason they are different is because 882 days is obviously on the daily time frame. I am on the monthly time frame. But based off my formula here, I'm going to break down what we are seeing here. In this case, we can see that each cycle, it's taking gradually a shorter time span for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high.
So, what's happening? Well, as Bitcoin gains adoption and naturally increases in market cap, and obviously you have the institutional investors, you have the ETF inflows and you are having more eyes on crypto. I believe we are going to see quicker cycles. Now, in this case here, Bitcoin has had its drop. We can expect six months of chop before obviously having a significant change in trend. But based off this pattern here, we can see 1,216 days. We can see 1,096, 882. And based off my projection here, if we're looking at the pattern, we have our first decrease of 120 days, which is the difference between this cycle and this cycle. Our second decrease is 214, which is the difference between here and here. Now, if we apply the same math based off of how quickly the cycles are sped up, well, this gives us 94. Now, if we add 214 of this previous difference to 94, that gives us an estimate probability of 574 days.
So, if we apply the same concept here in regards to what we are seeing with how quickly Bitcoin is creating a new all-time high or how long it's taking Bitcoin to create a new all-time high since its last high, then we get the number 574. And if we start looking at where 574 is on the chart, that puts us around May, June period where we could expect a new all-time high for Bitcoin if we are following this pattern. Remember, there's always a possibility that the patterns shift. There's also a possibility that we see decorrelations from patterns, but based off what I'm seeing here, I am seeing a change in the cycles.
Now, you're probably familiar with the words maybe this time is different. Very dangerous words. But what's important is that we have context for these words. You can say this time is different, but you need to have enough relevant context for that. ETF inflows, this wasn't anything different. All this did is provide more liquidity and more volume into the markets. It did not necessarily mean the price was just going to go parabolic because of these inflows. Right? We need to look at things from a structural standpoint. See things in the timings of events, see when the price action is shifting from its previous cycles. And as we can see here, the cycles are getting shorter for when Bitcoin creates a new all-time high. We can see here we have our halving event. Bitcoin has never created a new all-time high pre-halving. We saw this time around Bitcoin created a new all-time high pre-halving. Our first sign this cycle is shifting or, a matter of fact, the first sign that the cycles are gradually shifting in terms of speed and length.
In this case, our next halving is going to be around 2028, August, right around this period on estimate. If we, a matter of fact, measure this out from here to here, drag that along to our next halving, we can say that around 2028, April is where our next halving's going to be. So this gives us a lot of time to create a new all-time high. Think about it. Bitcoin is already down 52% from its highs. Is it really going to take 2 1/2 years for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high around that halving? No. It is bullish because the miner's rewards are split in half fundamentally. But in terms of what actually moves Bitcoin up and down, it's not the halving, it's liquidity. And we can see Bitcoin is already down 53%. The halving is sitting April 2028, which is a very long period for Bitcoin to create a new all-time high. Right? So that is why I'm expecting us to create a new all-time high pre-halving yet again.
The cycles are shifting and they are adapting based on patterns. This isn't just a skeptical belief of mine. This is grounded in logic and mathematics. We can see the cycles are changing. We can see the length of the cycles are shifting. In this case, we can see Bitcoin topped in December. We can see the previous cycle it topped in November and we can see here it topped in October. So, we can significantly see, well, every month here we are changing in where we are topping. First it was December, then it was November, now it's October. So, not only did we top sooner than previous cycles, we are likely going to bottom before previous cycles. Based off this math, it aligns with my broader thesis of this calculation of 574 days, giving me an estimate of May, June 2027, creating a new all-time high before the halving.
So, this is my thesis. This is my analysis. This is what I'm expecting. Again, raw TA, non-bullshit biased. This is exactly the type of plan which I'm going to be following through. I've already mentioned what I'm doing on the higher time frame. Obviously, I do have my shorts, but I also am accumulating because the broader trend is obviously weighing in the favor of forming a bottom around this period and then creating that new all-time high next year around this period. Remember, as always, patterns can decorate. I hope you found this information useful in regards to my insights and what I'm expecting.