Transcription
Okay, hello everyone. Today, we'll be conducting our weekly analysis, right? We will be identifying the market condition that we're in, and we will be planning accordingly, right? For the coming trading week and the days therein, right?
So, the most important thing that I always stress, right, right? This will have a high impact on your performance, right? You can use this tool, right, now that's on my screen that you can see, right? It's the Forex forexfactory.com. Right? It's an economic calendar. It's free, and it is probably my favorite economic calendar, right?
So, we always start with this due to the fact that time is the most important factor, right? When you're here, we don't use indicators, and we don't use anything outside of the charts and time. So, the first thing that we must look at is time, right? And there is no better place, right, to get an idea of what to expect in the coming week, right, than looking at the economic calendar.
So, today, right, we is Sunday. We don't trade on Sundays. And tomorrow, as you guys can see on my screen, we have no high impact news events, right? And most times than not, we'll be focusing on the US dollar due to the fact that the US dollar drives price more than anything. Everything is connected to the US dollar, right? The stock market, the crypto market, every Forex pair, right? The US dollar has an impact on all of those, and it always will.
The US dollar is range-bound, which it is right now on the higher time frame. You will see lackluster price action. You will see price runs that make no sense, and you will see price exploding or price dropping without any pullbacks, right? There would be no way to get in, or there would just be a way to get in, which is probably just one, and it will be very difficult, right?
So, tomorrow, which is Monday, there's no news. And due to the fact that there is no news, we don't do anything, right? We won't do anything due to the fact that there is no news. So, tomorrow is, you know, a day that anything could happen, right? But more times than not, there will be lackluster price action. And if there is lackluster price action tomorrow, then Tuesday will be a good day to trade, more or not, right?
And all of these things, you know, will be confirmed by what we will just take a brief look at over, even though we discussed this in the videos that I posted yesterday, right? Or was the day before yesterday? I can't remember. Anyways, so Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., we have news. So, Tuesday would be a day which is tradable, right? And we would be looking to participate in the market during New York session due to the fact that the high impact news event is during the New York session. So, everything that we do, right, revolves around the economic calendar, right? So, even before the week begins, right, you can be planning already which times, right, you'll be watching the market, which is amazing.
So, at around 9:30, right, you could even set your alarm for, you know, 9:15, 9:30. And then after that, you could just be looking for, you know, simply just looking for a sequential to form during the New York session, and then that would be good enough to give you a bias.
Also, on Wednesday, as you guys can see, we have three high impact news events, which is very telling, right? Due to the fact that we have more news events which are high impact on Wednesday than Tuesday, we can expect Tuesday to be less volatile than Wednesday. So, definitely during Wednesday, right, we'll be looking for something to do, right? The trade should form on Thursday. Now, we have two high impact news events, right? And we have the Fed Chair P testifying or just speaking at 10:00 a.m. Before that, we have unemployment claims at 8:30 a.m., right?
During the week, if you're new, all of this will make sense to you because you will just see price, you know, moving during these times, right? You'll just see price manipulating all highs and all lows during this time. You will just see sequential S&T, right, forming during these times or close to these times, 30 minutes before, 30 minutes after, after these times, right? Which is the time window that, you know, you want to be working within.
On Friday, we have Non-Farm Payroll, right? So, we have NFP, non-farm employment change, right? So, this Friday, we can expect volatility, a lot of volatility, right? So, what I do on Fridays is that I will wait for 8:30 to pass. And once, you know, the time gets to 9:00 a.m., 30 minutes after NFP releases, then I would look for something to do after I see SMT, right? And you're always going to hear me talking about SMT because that is very important, right?
And when we go into our charts today, and I will take you guys through, you know, the last monthly cycle of Euro USD, you will see why SMT is important. So, now we have the US dollar index in our chart, right? And I don't like making my charts too cluttered, and I don't even like marking my charts, right? When I trade, I don't have lines on my charts, right? I just have multiple, multiple monitors with correlating asset classes on each. So, I'll have one monitor with the US dollar, EUR USD, and GBP USD. And then I'll have another with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, right?
So, here you can see, right, that this high was made during the first quarter of the last monthly cycle, right? So, this was the first week of the last monthly cycle. The high of the last monthly cycle was made during the second week, right? So, this is typical AMD, right? From watching my YouTube video, everyone knows that. So, we had price manipulating, taking out the high of the first quarter during, right, the second quarter, which is the second week in regards to this cycle, right? Then we had price break down, retrace, and then we distributed in the third quarter. So, this right here, where we at, we are at right, right now, is low probability, right? This is low probability price action.
So, due to the fact that tomorrow is Monday, we usually have low probability price action before a news-less Monday, right? Before a news-less Monday, an emphasis on the news-less, right? There's no news there. We, we usually have low probability price action because the market is waiting for Monday, right? The market is waiting for Monday's range to form, you understand? So, here, right, we don't have a clear range price action at all. We have liquidity below these lows, and we have this swing high right here, and we have liquidity below these lows. So, currently for the US dollar, there is no clear range price action right at the moment. And remember, we're just finishing a cycle, right? So, we're just getting out of the previous monthly cycle, and now this is about to be Q1 of the current month, right?
Again, for GBP USD, right, you can see that there's a line that's drawn here, right, which we will be talking about soon. This is very significant, right? Due to the fact that we had GBP USD, right, failing to break below this low, which is the low of the first quarter, right? But in the price action of the US dollar, we had a higher high. So, this right here would be sequential SMT, right? On a regular day, right, regular price action, we would have the Great British pound making a higher high, making a higher low, my bad, while this is making a lower high, right? So, this is actual sequential SMT. Why is this sequential SMT? Because it's during Q1 and Q2, right?
So, right here, right, let me show you guys, because this is very important, and everything that we talk about after this relies on this, right? You can see that here, where is it? Here we go. You can see that this high, right? And now I am trying to highlight the US dollar broke this high, right here. Meanwhile, the Great British pound failed to break below this low. So, on a regular day when this happens in the Great British pound, we should have the US dollar forming a swing high and failing to break above this high. If you're new, this may come off as complicated, but once you get this, you have like 75% of everything down already, right?
So, this is the important part, and this has to do with time, right? No one taught this before they gave you, you know, the tools to use, but, you know, I gave you the times, right? So, Michael talks about SMT. I'm giving you sequential SMT. I'm telling you how to spot the real ones, the ones that work, right? And all of these, right, key levels or key reversal points form on higher time frame levels. If you go back through your chart, right, and you go up to the weekly time frame, you can see that where these SMTs formed, they were weekly key levels, right? So, sequential SMT can happen between Q1 and Q2.
Now, right, we get a better look at price action by going through the Euro dollar, which was pretty clean last month, in my opinion, right? So, the first thing, you know, that happened was we anticipated this drop right here, if you guys can remember, you know, from the first patch, we anticipated this drop. And what happened after price dropped? There was sequential SMT, right? So, here we had GBP USD making a higher low, right? And then we had the Euro dollar, right, making a lower low. After this, we had price trade above this balanced price range right here, which is a gap, which overlaps another gap. Cap, right? Basically, we had low resistance liquidity here. And what is low resistance liquidity? And what makes it low resistance liquidity? Couldn't this just be a failure high and then just, you know, continue dropping lower? No. Why not? There wasn't SMT, that's why. There was not SMT present here. What causes price to reverse? SMT forming within our time frame levels. That's why price reverses. And every time you see price reverse, you will see that. And if you're not seeing that, then it's not a real reversal. It's just either continuing lower to find a gap to react from, or continuing higher to find to find the gap to react from, or is just searching for a low or a high to rate, right?
So, we had price dropping into this fair value gap after there was sequential SMT. So, when do you look for gaps after sequential SMT? If you realize, I'm not just saying SMT because SMT by itself is foolishness, in my opinion. It doesn't really work. It doesn't work. You know, you have people saying stuff like SMT alone doesn't make sense, or, you know, when it does make sense by itself, right, it's specific lows being taken out at specific times. So, when price traded above this balanced price range, right, we had a, we had a change in the state of delivery for price, right? Due to the fact that there was SMT below these lows, right? So, between this low and this low, there was SMT. And this was an SMT. So, once price dropped into this fair value gap, we would expect price to run these highs. Also, due to the fact that it is Q3 coming up, right? The distribution cycle, accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. What makes AMD AMD? Think about it. What makes AMD AMD? Because every, you know, people will complain it doesn't work sometimes. Of course, it doesn't work sometimes. Everything is not in that YouTube video. Of course, I wouldn't put everything in that YouTube video. The sequential SMT is what allows price to reverse, right? So, due to the fact that there's sequential SMT between, between Q1 and Q2, that is where you will find real AMD, right? That's where you'll find real AMD. And the same goes for AMDX, right? X AMD, right? So, if there was X here and A and M here, then we would have SMT between Q2 and Q3, right? And this is elementary, very elementary knowledge, right? But this is how you actually spot them, right? If you study this, there is, right, no one will, you know, be better than you, right? And I can teach you how to anticipate market reversals very well, but when it comes to trading, you have to take it into your own hands, right? You, you're going to need to, you know, go through what you need to go through, right? But by alleviating, you know, the pain of, you know, not knowing where price will go, then you have a fair shot at actually doing this, right? You'll be like 75% done, 80% done once you understand this. And you need to go through your charts, and you need to backtest, you need to look for these things in your chart. Just this alone, right? You can just be waiting for Q2, and if there's sequential SMT, then you find a trade, right? You put on your stop loss, risk how much you are, and then that's it. You probably get like an 80, 75% win rate when you just began or something like that. But this really fails. The only time it fails, like from where I, you know, where I've witnessed it failing, is just whenever there wasn't a higher time frame PDI here. We had higher time frame PDI below this low, right? And I'll show you right now. So, whenever, right, you're looking at the four-hour time frame, you want to go to the weekly time frame for your higher time frame P. So, right here, we had what? An block price broke into, right? And then we had a higher time frame swing low which has an immense amount of liquidity right below it. This candle right here was where we witnessed, right, sequential SMT forming. And, you know, this is not just hindsight, right? We've done this, you know, many times, right? We, we've even predicted when SMT would form before it did. We've predicted where it would form and when, at the same time, like before it even formed, before it, you know, it even made sense to even think about it, right? And then after, right, price trading this fair value gap ran above these highs, right? Right here, we had price fall back into this fair value gap, right? And then just rally. Then we had price, you know, still stabilize around these areas.
So, here again, you know, we will first, you know, talk about what we expect for, you know, the index futures. So, currently, we're at all-time highs. And in regard to the S&P 500, we've taken out a high. NASDAQ, we've taken out a high. Dow Jones, we failed to take out a high. So, this right here is SMT, right? But, you know, we need to see Monday's trading, right? So, we'll wait for Monday's trading and know that somebody are going to go in and do something and profit in the group, but you'll be going against the rules. So, don't do that, right? There are a lot of opportunities, you know, that will come, you know, during the course of this week, next week, and more times than not on a daily basis. So, just taking one day out that is deemed low probability shouldn't hurt you. So, we'll wait for Monday's trading, right? And then after that, we will come back and reanalyze these.
So, so currently, right, we're at all-time highs. There is no high time frame PDI to work with here. The only thing that we can use is time and SMT, which is what makes this low probability, right? If there was a higher time frame gap here and SMT, and if it was sequential, right, then we could definitely go in and find something to do. But there isn't that present at the moment. So, at these lows right here, right, what can you tell? There's SMT. We had the, and we talked about this last week before the fact. We talked about this Sunday, right, before the market, right, like probably like five minutes after the market opened, and we wanted to see P drop lower, which it did. Then we wanted to see price react to this opening price right here, which it did not. Last week, I mean, we did talk about this though, right? I think it's the week before last week, right? And we expected price to run above these highs. So, we anticipated sequential SMT, which newcomers will look like hindsight, right?
So, here we have price failing to break below this low during Q3, right? So, this is Q2, this is Q3. So, we have sequential SMT between Q2 and Q3. And if you look closer, right, you should be able to see the, right, the lower time frame cycles, which would be in this case, the weekly cycle. The larger boxes are the monthly cycles. Boxes, and the smaller boxes are the weekly cycle boxes. That's what they mean, right? So, this would be Tuesday red of the second week of the month, and this would be Wednesday green of the third week of the month. So, this is Q2. And how came from Q2? This is Q3 on higher time frame. Q3, right? And where do the lows which cause the formation of SMT form? See that? Crazy, isn't it? And we did anticipate this. So, whenever, right, you have this happen, and this is actually crazy, right? So, for example, if we had SMT forming with this low during Q3 of Q3, and the second low forming during Q4 of Q4, then the only thing that we would need, right, for us to get into a trade is just for an, you know, a lower time frame cycle low to be taken out, which should happen, right, here, which we did talk about, like, no hindsight. And that's, you know, that's what makes here good. We don't talk about, you know, just things that already happened before we actually, you know, attempt to talk about the future, if you will. And more times than not, we're right, which is good.
So, here, right, in the NASDAQ, you can see that we took out this low. And in the E-Dow futures, we failed to take this low. And then afterwards, you can see that here we had sequential SMT again. But this sequential SMT was a lower time frame sequential SMT, right? So, here, and some of you might have seen me talk about this before the fact on Twitter. And we did talk about this here last week as well, by the way, right? So, we had SMT, right, between Q3 and Q4. SMT between Q3 and Q4, that's sequential SMT, right? So, this low got taken out, this low got taken out, and this low failed to get taken out. That's sending price higher. That's what causes price to reverse. That's what causes Q4 reversals, right? You understand? This is very important. Like, this alone, right, this what I'm talking about right now, no one ever heard of this before. Like, before I began here, right? It's nowhere out there. And if you can find it, I'll literally send you $100,000. Just find sequential SMT. Find SMT between Q3 and Q4. Find SMT between Q2 and Q3. Find any one of them, right? And this week, we'll be talking about this empty spot right here. Do you see it? Why is there an empty spot there? We'll talk about it. That's Friday. And it does have a purpose, right?
So, what should you be focusing on, right? SMT. You need to have correlating asset classes in front of you at all times. If you're trading S&P 500, you can't just be looking at S&P 500 by itself. You need S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow. If you're trading Euro USD, you can't just be looking at Euro USD by itself. You need DXY, Euro USD, and GBP USD. If you're trading Bitcoin, you can't just be looking at Bitcoin by yourself. You need Bitcoin, you know, you need Ethereum, right? These concepts work best in futures and Forex. And this specific concept, which is sequential SMT, will operate at a very high, highly precise level, right? In specific cycles. Which cycles? The monthly cycle, the weekly cycle, the daily cycle, and the 90-minute cycles, right? So, those four cycles will make you, right, the monthly, the weekly, the daily, and the 90-minute cycles. The 90-minute cycles respect the daily cycle. The daily cycle respects the weekly cycle, right? And the weekly cycle respects the monthly cycle. If you have sequential SMT or if you have SMT which opposes a higher time frame cycle's SMT, it's fake. It won't work. They need to be in line. And the higher time frame cycle is called the shots, literally. Focus on everything in the videos that I've posted before. Then, just just apply them to your charts. Higher time frame levels, sequential S&P forming on higher time frame levels, right? And if you look at here, right, the S&P 500, you'll see that the true open was here, right? This was the true open, this opening price right here, right? And what happened? Where was the SMT? Where did SMT form below true open? Right? And all of these things, you can find them in the videos, right? If you watch them, and you should watch them, right? And if you've been here, you know, since January or December or whatever, and you haven't, you know, had time to go through all of them, then you should just go over all of them again before, you know, we end up at a level. And there are too much videos for you to go through because we'll get there. As I said, this is basic stuff, right? This is like ABC, one, two, three. This isn't, this isn't technical yet, but we'll get there, right? We'll get there. So, you need to understand these things first, which are absolutely crazy. MM, do teach this. ICT, do teach this. Look at what's here. Look at the rules. What are the rules? You buy below it. You open. This is the true week open, right? You buy below the true week open. And what would you know, give you an idea that it's time to buy? Sequential SMT. You see this? When does sequence form? During Q3 and Q4, in terms of, you know, Thursday or Q4 reversals? Remember, Q4 can either, you know, continue or, you know, it can reverse. When does it reverse? Here, this is when it reverses, right? So, if you're below a true open and you see sequential SMT, right, and it's Q4, that's when you should buy. So, we had price rally here, then fall back below the, you open again. Then what happened after that? It just continued going higher. So, right here, we have the most important things, right? The true open, sequential SMT. So, you need to understand what a true open is. You need to know what a sequ, what sequential SMT is, right? So, these are, right now, what you should be focusing on the most. If you want to keep up, right? If you want to keep up with the older guys, which are, you know, doing phenomenally well. Every week, they surprise me more and more and more and more, right? Which, this is the first time I'm probably saying this, but, you know, it really makes me, I say, happy.
So, now we'll go to the, you know, we'll look at the weekly cycle, right? And this was the last week's cycle, right? So, here, DXY, we had DXY taking out Q1's low, then rallying, right? And then we had Q4, you know, leaving a high. And that high, I'm like trying to not say this right now, but I'll just talk about it anyways. Then we had Friday taking out Thursday's high. That's sequential SMT as well, okay? I just talked about it. You're welcome. So, if you got that, you got that. And if not, you didn't.
So, here in GBP USD, we had Q2, right, last week, failing to take out Q1, right? So, this is SMT, right here, between the dollar index and the euro dollar. Right here again, right, we can see there's the low being taken out on Friday. It just rallied. So, you can see the high of the week was formed with sequential SMT, and the low as well. The euro dollar, you can see that Q1 was taken out, right, during Q2. And we posted this setup last week. I remember, right? This candle right here is a precision swing point right here. And if you go through all the videos and you get there, you'll see why it is, right? You always heard ICT talking about, um, you know, Friday, you know, usually returns to the range. When, when does it do that? Is it just because of a fair value gap? No, not just because of your. Again, it's because of this, right? So, Friday, in itself, has a specific function, right? It's not a part of the quarterly cycle. It's just a, you know, just an addition, right?
So, now we have, right here, remember, look at this. This is Friday's price action. And this is Friday's price action for the pound. We had this low being taken out, but in the euro dollar, this one wasn't taken out. You see this? This is insane. No one knows this, bro. No one knows this. That's actually what's insane, right? No one knows this. And I have, you know, things no one knows. And then people are like, oh, quarterly theory doesn't work sometimes. Yeah, because you don't know how to use it. Know how to use it, man. Like, you don't know. So, there are prerequisites to understanding these things, which are in the videos that were posted, right? That you need to go through. Take your time. Don't, like, make your, you know, your mind explode or something.
So, this is sequential SMT between Thursday and Friday. It's not between any quarters, just Thursday and Friday, right? That's when that's when you have TGIF. That's when it works, right? So, we literally had sequential SMT making the high and the low of the week last week. And we're literally in one of the worst conditions I've ever seen in my life right now. But we could, I still, we still managed last week. And most of you remember, I pointed to this before it fell, right? And we managed to, some of us managed to capture most of the range, right? So, we had price take out this low, Q1's low, and this low, which was the previous Q4's low of the previous cycle. Then we had price rally, drop again. This was terrible price action, right? And then we had the low of the week being formed with sequential SMT.
So, I'll give you guys all of, you know, this right here is the real gem that you need to study. Some of you won't get it instantly, right? So, you'll probably need a month or two or three to actually get it. But you will, because you're, you're being like handed gold right now, right? Literally. And you're going to be a terrific analyst because of this. Just this right now that I'm talking about. Just this right now that I'm talking about. This is going to be all they're going to write books about this. I'm pretty sure, right? Sequential SMT.
So, sequential SMT, when we're talking about the weekly cycle, right? So, this is specific to the weekly cycle, right? Forms between either Q1 and Q2, or Q2 and Q3, or Q3 and Q4, or Thursday and Friday. That, listen, look when the low of the week usually forms. If this isn't here, 85% of the time, man, then you should leave. You should just leave. Ask for a refund, right? If this doesn't work, you shouldn't be here. You shouldn't trust someone, right? You shouldn't trust a person that just teaches you garbage, that just gives you, um, stupid indicators, that doesn't know how to approach the marketplace, right? Someone that only talks in hindsight. You don't trust people like that, right?
So, that's it for today. There's a good amount of information to consume today, right? And if you're new, go through the old videos. Don't mind my voice. I don't have the best voice, right? Just focus on the information. Try to understand the information. Write notes. Part theories made in, you know, to make anticipating reversals easier, right? With this right here, you can literally spot the low of the week, the low of the month, the low of the day, the low of a 90-minute cycle. And the more you use it, guess what? The easier. Look at you won't need to, you know, draw indicators or draw anything, put anything in your chart. You just need raw price action, which is why I don't, you know, put like F, a lot of F value gaps in order because like those things are like, you know, the only time they matter, and you can write this down. The only time fair value gaps, A blocks, breakers, the only time they matter is when they're sequential, literally, right?
So, I hope that you found this insightful. I think I spoke for too long. Wow, probably been here talking for like 45 minutes. Hope you found this insightful, and I will see you guys with the real sauce, right? Wednesdays or sa, right? That's when we actually, you know, go into the market marketplace, right? And Wednesdays, I love Wednesdays. So, Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, I'll be here. Tomorrow, I'll be updating you guys, you know, in regard to the market condition. So, if the market condition gets better during the course of the day, then I'll post a chart. If there is something, you know, that I want you guys to focus on, I will post a chart. And, you know, on Tuesday or so, if there's a setup that forms, then I'll post my chart, right? And don't take my chart lightly, right? I don't post a chart unless I see something. So, I'm not just going to post a random chart highlighting buy-side liquidity and SMT if they don't mean anything, right? Anytime I post something, there's a reason why I post it, right? Sometimes it will be easier, easy for you, sometimes, right? Because I would literally just be like, you know, I want to buy here, then it goes there, and then it probably rallies or something. But I want you to literally, you know, not need me at the end of five, six, even four months, you know? I need you to not need me. That's what I need you to just be like, I'm done. And that's it. I learned what I need to learn. They, I made this some money. They, um, this firm hired me. You know, that's it. I got a withdrawal of $25, $50,000 there. Look at this. That, that's literally what I need to see. And for that to happen, you got to put the work in, right? You got to put the work in. It's not impossible. So, until Wednesday, hope that you guys, you know, have a joyful week.