Transcription
Bitcoin is currently being rejected at the top of its range. We will analyze this today. We will talk about the slowing inflows into ETFs. We will also analyze Ethereum and look at the order flow to see what's happening with sentiment. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algorithm service is still available. You keep 100% of the gains, 21 TP for the strategies last week. Another excellent week for you to connect to these algorithms. It's very simple, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All links concerning my content are also there. You just have to click on this second link right here and click on the subscribe button. This will allow you to register on Bitgate via our partner link and it will also register you for the free contest to try to win up to $10,000 to be shared. It's a small exclusive contest for the community. In short, you click here to subscribe, you create your account, and once that's done, you just have to click on this third link. And so here, I'll explain, it's a short video that explains how to get the algorithms for free, how to get my mentorship for free as well. So these 24 video courses await you, as well as the VIP Altcoin and crypto when there are good opportunities on altcoins. I will share everything with you in the Discord channel for VIP members. I explain all of this, it's 100% free. You just have to follow a few simple steps.
So, to come back to BTC, we can categorize this as a range from my point of view, with a bottom of the range around $107,000, and the top of the range, of course, at $124,000 to $125,000. Well, I'm on the CME, so there's a slight price difference, but it's exactly the same chart. We can clearly see that we have a range top here that we've rejected multiple times. The market hunted stops once, then a second time here at the beginning of October, and we can see that for now, we are experiencing a rejection. There's nothing extraordinary here. We spoke yesterday about a small bearish dynamic that formed on H4 with the question of the last lower low. So for now, until proven otherwise, we are indeed in a bearish dynamic. What would be needed is, of course, to break the last descending high at some point. So this one here at $124,100, to continue bullishly. But as long as we don't break the last descending high, which is theoretically this one at around $124,200, theoretically we are at the beginning of a small bearish dynamic. Now, it's nothing too dramatic since it's the beginning and it can reverse quickly, but it needs to be reversed as long as that's not the case. We are simply seeing bounces that are bringing us lower.
Here in daily, we can note, and that's why I almost always analyze the CME, I find it much cleaner than what we have on the derivatives market. We can see that we are working the last fair value gap that delivered the ATH. And so for those who have done the mentorship, you know that this fair value gap is important and must be maintained because if it's broken, there's a very high chance that the price will come to test the daily breaker block here, and specifically this fair value vector. There's a lot of volume, so there are a lot of orders to be executed here. So it's not exactly the same zone as, well, on the CME, I can give you the prices, but in general, look at your chart to see which zone it corresponds to. Otherwise, on the perpetual market where we trade or the spot market, we can see that it corresponds to the same zone here. So it would be roughly between $114,800 and $118,100. If we lose this FVG, you see the difference, we don't see it very well on the perpetual market, whereas on the CME, it's very clear. But breaking this FVG would be more indicative of a retest of the breaker block here. So roughly the actual swing high of $117,000 on the perpetual market, on the CME, it corresponds more to $118,400. Small price differences because futures products often have spreads, which is perfectly normal, they are derivatives of the market and they deviate a bit from the price because that's the objective of a futures contract. And so here, you have to be extremely careful because, as we said, we absolutely must not turn around.
And so, not many people understand when I say we absolutely must break the trendline. Why do I say that? I'm not saying the market will break the trendline, I don't know what the market will do. What I know is that it's an extremely important level and that there's a very high chance we'll form a top here. But when I say we must break the trendline, yes, Bitcoin must, if we want a Bitcoin that goes higher, if we want a Bitcoin that carries the market with it, it must absolutely break this trendline because if it doesn't, Bitcoin will do nothing. That's what you need to understand. That is to say, in fact, it can range for months, perhaps before breaking it, or it can even start a bearish swing. I'm preparing a video for you, I think it will be released next week because this week, unfortunately, I won't have time to cover what I personally think about cycles. Are we still cyclical? What's happening? Are we on the verge of entering a bear market? Because we see a lot of things. Yes, we would be on the verge of entering a bear market, etc., for many. Well, I'll make you a short video to tell you exactly what I personally think, always correlated with indices and so on and so forth.
To come back to ETFs, we see a lack of interest in Bitcoin, meaning that there was a peak here and that unfortunately, for now, this peak translates to the market top. So, in fact, these are buyers who bought on the ETFs and are now stuck here. What we want to see is increasing inflows, meaning inflows that come back to allow us to break the $125,000 resistance. So the horizontal resistance, but also the oblique resistance, the trendline. As long as we don't do that, what's happening? Well, what's happening is simply that here we see decreasing inflows. So roughly, investors are not eager to buy at this resistance for now, and we need buyers to break this resistance. And we see here that there was a peak and that the inflows are decreasing. Yesterday, we can see that we had $197 million in inflows. So the day before yesterday, $440 million, that's very good, plus $197 million, but it's not enough. It's not enough to break the resistance, and if we've finished our peak here, it means that there won't be too many investors left to push the prices, and roughly, in a range, what happens? Simply, if investors don't show up and don't break the range, then the market simply has a chance to return to the bottom of the range. And what bothers me about this move, and that's why I'm really not a fan of this move we had here, is that this move wasn't initiated with liquidity grab. The beginning of the quarter started, we rushed to reach the ATH. Honestly, these are characteristics of price action that have a high chance of indicating that this rise was a trap. Now, that doesn't mean it's the case, it's just my opinion, my reading of the price. But if there had been this liquidity grab, I would have been much more serene and said, okay, there's a real move here and pullbacks are good opportunities. I have more the impression that this was an extreme push, an extremely rapid push to dislodge specific short sellers before marking the cleanup of this zone. Now, I don't know if that's what's going to happen or not. It's just my feeling when I see that the market here has simply consolidated this sell stop zone instead of hunting it before triggering its move.
So we assume it's a range. You assume that if the range cannot be broken, what will happen? We risk returning to the bottom of the range, except that this time, we are starting to accumulate a lot of sell stops. So, there's a very high chance that the price will come to recover those lots. Again, this doesn't mean that if we go there, it's the end of the world. Bitcoin could very well do that and then decide to break the resistance. It's just that given the launch of the move here without liquidity grab, these movements are often traps. Do I have examples that come to mind? Perhaps bearish examples because we are in a bullish trend. I don't necessarily have examples that come to mind because I'm on daily, but I invite you to observe the price on hourly, on 5 minutes, on 1 minute and to clearly locate price movements that didn't take stops beforehand. These are often traps that get liquidated later. And here, well, theoretically, it might be the case. I'm not saying it will happen again, I'm just saying we need to be cautious here because the zone is extremely important and this big push at the beginning of the quarter is very suspicious. It reminds me a bit, I don't know if it's the case again, but it reminds me a bit of what we did in the second quarter of the year. That is to say, this was the low of the first quarter, at the beginning of the second, we came to recover the stops of the first, and then boom, the opposite. Well, in fact, I have the impression that we are in something similar but reversed. That is to say, the market rushed to take the stops of the previous quarter and roughly, it can take the opposite of the initial move, meaning, in fact, rather to come and take the stops here. But well, we'll see.
What is being said about funding rates is that people are rather bullish, and so it would be more favorable to break the ATH and perhaps launch a real breakout. However, we need investors, it's not just about liquidating people on derivatives and then it goes up infinitely. We really need people to buy to support the price. And we see that on the spot investor side, that's not really the case anymore. But roughly, what this could indicate is that the market can create many more traps, meaning, in short, hunt stops as many times as possible before perhaps really reversing if there are no more people interested in buying Bitcoin. Because here, at the funding level, we see that on Binance, it has become almost negative again. Bybit was negative yesterday, very liquid. There's a big whale shorting, driving down the funding rates. So these people can, we can perhaps try to get them out, meaning, in short, take their stops without necessarily going much higher than that. But a retest would really not be impossible if the objective is to get out those who are shorting here. But from a technical point of view, in any case, this zone is extremely important and it must be broken. As long as, in fact, it's simple, Bitcoin and altcoins will do nothing, probably even Ethereum, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break free from this zone, and that's why it absolutely must be broken to find a more dynamic market.
Regarding ETH, there's a different interpretation because on the perpetual market, we left the stops here, we didn't come to get them. However, on the CME, they were triggered, and that's the difference between products and a perpetual market that is not regulated at all. They make us believe, yes, MiCA regulation, blah blah blah, but it changes absolutely nothing. It's a market that is not regulated in itself. However, on the CME, it's different. The CME will execute its own algorithms, etc., will set its price, and they do it very well. They do it much better than the perpetual market because we see that here, liquidity was taken before initiating this bearish move, something we don't have on the perpetual market. And so, well, it's quite suspicious to leave stops like that. After all, it's a zone we could revisit later, of course, everything will depend on Bitcoin. Obviously, if Bitcoin is rejected and returns to the bottom of its range at $107,000, you can imagine that Ethereum will probably come to test these lows since it's October, and thus the low of September is marked. That is to say, this is the high of the previous month, so $4,768, the high of September, and we also have the low of September here at $3,831. And if Bitcoin returns to $107,000, what will happen is that Ethereum will also probably come to hunt the low of September, and that could be an excellent opportunity, of course, to really go much higher this time. It's not impossible at all.
Okay. But here, in its current state, the price is working the fair value gap it left on its previous leg, and we see that it has more or less filled the last two FVGs. What's needed, if you want Ethereum to recover quickly, is to maintain these FVGs, not to settle below $4,253, because if we go below $4,253, there's a high probability of testing the next one between $4,080 and $4,040, or even taking the stops here at $3,820, as this would correspond to the low of September. Which I will note here as previous monthly low. HML, like that, the previous month's low, so we have the high and the low. We could very well revisit the low before attacking the ATH, and so on and so forth. What needs to be remembered is, and this is more visible on the CME, what needs to be remembered is that the price absolutely must maintain its weekly FVG. That's what allows us to continue going higher. So the weekly FVG is this zone. It was perfectly maintained previously. We saved it at the last minute. What's needed is to maintain it, so there's always the possibility of bullish continuation because if the price breaks this FVG, knowing that it's this FVG that delivered the 2024 high, what will happen is that we'll have an inversion here, and the price will want to retest the previous impulse, so the fair value gaps we left here. It's simple, investors, these zones are extremely interesting for positioning yourself. I don't know if we'll revisit them, but below $3,000, so this is on the CME, it's a bit different from the prices. I'm giving you this here on the spot and perpetual market, but it would be from $3,360. These price levels for investment are starting to be very, very good for those who missed the train and want to reposition themselves on a pullback. Will it happen? I don't know. Again, it will only happen if we lose this weekly FVG. For now, that's not the case at all. We see that this fair value gap has been perfectly maintained. So for now, it's fine, but if it were to be lost, because also on the product, the perpetual market, the market came to recover the stops. We see it here, you see that the market came to deliver the ATH and then nothing happened. The price could simply, without much trouble, come for example to work these FVGs before going much higher afterwards. It wouldn't be impossible at all. As you know, the market tends to retrace sometimes before launching future bullish legs. It can happen, it wouldn't be the end of the world. I'm not talking about a move like this. This was really big liquidation moves, but I'm talking more simply about a pullback to potentially go higher.
Another possible scenario for Ethereum is exactly what Bitcoin did in 2024. If you remember, it was here when we came to test the ATH, right here, you see, we came to test the ATH and we had a rather bearish consolidation here. In fact, we came back to work the FVGs we had left on the previous leg before making a new leg. Well, that's something ETH could do. That's something ETH could do, roughly. Like this. Not this. Oops. Like this, like this, like this, like this, like this, like this. And then, boom, boom. Future bullish leg. Basically, people don't believe in it anymore, don't believe in it anymore, don't believe in it anymore. And then boom, we go up again without too much trouble. It's something that could happen. You see how violent this rise was because people no longer believed in Ethereum at all. It's something we could do again without too much trouble. Consolidate. Consolidate. Consolidate. People no longer believe in it, and then boom, we start a bullish leg again. It's like I showed you, it's exactly what Bitcoin did here at the time. It came to hunt its ATH, did nothing for several months, and then launched a new leg. Perhaps we are in a similar scenario for Ethereum. It remains to be observed. In any case, for me, if you don't want to overthink it, I'll stop here for today. You simply look at the weekly FVG. As long as it's maintained, it's fine. If you start to see Ethereum settle below that, then you'll have to consider deeper and longer corrections, meaning that the ATH will take time to be re-seen, and that we'll have to wait for more consolidation, and that if you're an investor, then the dips will be your targets.
We can quickly look at what's happening with Ethereum ETFs right here. Hop, Ethereum, let's put it in dollars. Same thing, we can see that on the inflow side, it's slowing down a bit. So there's a lack of demand here. And for those who watch the macro reviews, I'm mostly worried about the indices. It's not really that I'm worried, but the bias has been executing very, very well for weeks and weeks and weeks. And my bias is that indices can correct when the VIX reaches its lows, and we're not very far from that here. So I think indices are not far from finding a top. I think we'll go up further, that's my bias. Personally, I'm exposed in that way, but I think that perhaps by the end of October, beginning of November, there will probably be the first stress move in the indices, and that could impact the crypto market eventually because here, we see that for now, BTC has made its move, it has made its move by following the indices very aggressively, but now we see that the indices continue to rise. Bitcoin is struggling a bit since it delivered its ATH, and that's something to observe, to monitor, because the day the indices start to drop, Bitcoin will probably follow. And so that's a bit of our benchmark that we'll need to watch, and probably the next correction in the indices, in my opinion, could happen probably perhaps next month, November, if we believe the VIX. So that, well, we'll have to be careful.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a thumbs up, subscribe if you haven't already, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description, there's a lot of free content. There's also the possibility to join my school. It's the only paid subscription I offer. It's the first link in the pinned comment. You'll have access to the private briefs I do with students every day. It's right here, join my trading school. The goal is to train you alongside me every day from Monday to Friday live. It's broadcast if you're not there during the live session. I analyze altcoins, I answer your questions, we find opportunities together. We look at trading concepts, trading setups. I talk about my personal exposure to the market. You'll also have access to the school's training, which is exclusive to the school. 19 hours of video courses, 8 modules that train you from A to Z. And you'll also have access to Discord with the students to ask all your questions, exchange with other members, teachers, and so on and so forth. You also have a small description of what you'll find in the school right here and testimonials from members to give you an idea. I'll stop here. We'll meet again later for the macro review.