Transcription
Hello, good day to everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We are correcting a bit on Bitcoin and altcoins. Is it over, are we putting in a market top, or is it simply a retracement? That will be the big question of the day. We will, of course, analyze Ether and a few altcoins that were requested for analysis. I have Atom, TRX, and Chainlink. So, we will simply see if there are any setups that are triggering on these cryptos. And we will, of course, talk about the US market here. So, I'll start here with BTC. Honestly, you cannot panic on this kind of retracement. Now, it's true that when we see, uh, 3, let's say 4 days of consecutive gains, where we have here a plus, let's say, we'll say a +10%. As soon as we see a red candle, that's it. No, that's surely a past trauma. In fact, for some, we zoom out, there's nothing, we are very high, but those who arrived, for example, in 2025, we have fallen so much for you that when we have a small drop like this, it brings back certain traumas. And be careful with that, it can really be a psychological bias that can play tricks on you. It's exactly the same bias if I zoom out on a larger timeframe that we have started again here. Okay, there are a lot of people who are in "Oh no, it's not possible, I have to take my profits quickly." It's because they were traumatized by this drop. And so, as soon as there were small corrections like here, like here, like here, like there, that's it, it's no. So, this is a bias that is completely normal. In fact, it's your perception of what you see that will be modified according to your emotional state, which has been impacted by the past. It's normal. This is something that is applied in trading, in investing, but in everyday life. You can have a perception of things that will be totally different depending on your experience, but it can clearly impact your positions. Should we zoom out, and this is where it's good to pause, do a calm analysis, and have something rational and factual? It's not because I say that that tomorrow there might not be a -20%. No, but in any case, we are doing a concrete analysis with what we have in front of us. What do we have in front of us? We simply have a break that is really confirmed since we have two candles here above this wick. And here we simply have a red candle, certainly, but is this red candle a sign of a top? Absolutely not. We are still here in, uh, an upward trend, in a dynamic that is simply, uh, upward. So there is nothing alarming. When could we worry? Well, if we start making lower highs, if we start re-entering important levels, already going back below, uh, 94,000, that wouldn't be great. And going back below this level, then yes, those would be reversal signals. But when we look at the bullish phases we've had, retracement phases, red candles, it happens, it happens, it happens, okay? A market cannot go up in a straight line. So nothing alarming for the moment. We have a fairly strong decoupling between cryptos and the US market. We see it clearly here with, well, an SP500 simply performing well and cryptos falling. And yesterday, we had cryptos performing well with an SP500 which, for its part, did not, well, has clearly, has clearly retraced. So for the moment, the best thing to do is to use moving averages. Yes, that's the best thing to do. It allows us to simply have our guiding line, our course of action, and to see if we are in an upward trend or not. For the moment, we are in an upward trend. This is where an objective analysis of the information we have at the moment is needed. And at this exact moment, we are simply pulling back the 15-minute tunnel. We could be in the same scenario as we were here, as we were here, or as we were here. It's not because we could be in the same scenario that the same thing will happen. Maybe here, we will reach a market top, we will turn around, and we will retrace. It's possible. In any case, what is most certain is that we are currently in a sideways phase preceded by an impulse. And any sideways phase, like the one we had here, if I zoom in on 5, 15 minutes, there was a small range. There was a small range here as well on the 1-minute at this level. But like any sideways phase, we look at what preceded it, and we are preceded here by bullish impulses. So these ranges have a greater chance of breaking upwards. So for the moment, I would bet on a continuation of Bitcoin. And for the moment, all those who will tell you that there is a market top on Bitcoin, it's false. Okay? We can consider it if we start losing the 15 minutes, re-entering, and going back below certain levels. For the moment, that's not the case. As I say, I would start to worry. Already, we can lose the 15 minutes, go look for the 1-hour, nothing alarming. We can retrace, come back to look for 94,000 dollars, nothing alarming. If we start on daily to re-enter, close below this level, I would say, okay, here we already have a first signal that tells me, that invites me to be cautious. If we re-enter the value area high, the signal will be even stronger. And if we close below 90,000 dollars, then for me, the signal is much more than confirmed, and we will be in a retracement to go look for the lower extremity, globally 80,000 dollars. For the moment, we are not there yet at this level, and it's better to look here to continue the trend rather than anticipate this kind of reversal. So, some are talking about traps, and yes, the market can trap you at any time. At any time. There can always be false breakouts, there can always be deviations and re-entries, that's a fact. But when do we talk about deviation and re-entry? When they happen, we don't anticipate a deviation and re-entry, we observe it, and when it occurs, then why not? You see, when here, hop, when here we are in the middle of the day, meaning that we are here at this level. That is, the daily close is not, I'll put it in replay mode, it will be simpler. Uh, there, we are here. Let's assume, we are in the middle of the day, we don't have such a high candle, we don't have our close. So, we are at this level. We can't start saying it's a trap. We can't know that we are going to make a false breakout here. We don't anticipate it. However, when it happens, when this trap occurs, meaning that we really have a deviation, then we re-enter, then we have a bearish engulfing. Then, we can have doubts because then we have confirmation. And this is really if you have to remember one thing today, it's to ask yourself: are the decisions you are making anticipating what the market is doing, or are you reacting to what it is offering you? Someone here who talks about a market top is reacting, uh, they are anticipating, sorry. Whereas the person who waits for a re-entry, who waits for a reversal signal, they are reacting. So don't try to anticipate, try rather to react. This is really the big lesson of the day. I know it might seem complicated for some people, but yet it's something really primordial. For me, Bitcoin still has the possibility to reach 99,000 dollars. You just have to let the market breathe. It's completely, uh, normal to have retracement phases. However, we must have good risk management if you have taken trades, if you are in spot or whatever, but this is where you must manage your trades well. You must have good risk management because the market will not always be right. Maybe here, it will be right, and you will perform. But in a future situation, maybe we will have a similar situation, but this time, we will re-enter. If you don't have good risk management, it will be catastrophic. You have to accept to lose, and you must have risk management that allows you to lose. If you have bad risk management that doesn't allow you to lose, what do I mean? Because it doesn't allow you to lose, meaning that if you lose, you are out. Basically, you lose your entire capital. That's not good risk management, and it will happen at some point because you can't always win. That's a fact, and at that point, you will be out of the market. The goal is to have a long-term vision, for years and years, not to make a quick buck on a single trade. So, that's my opinion on BTC for now. Much more psychology, uh, than anything else. I'll come back to BTC. I was on the ICP chart. A trade I'm currently in. I'll show you later. There. What's good is that we continue to have negative funding. Now, we don't have a significant increase in open interest. After all, an increase in open interest is not surprising here in the sense that we don't have a new bullish start to the market. What bothers me a bit is that we have an increase in the CVD, we see it clearly, while we don't have an increase in price. So here we have what is called absorption. Now, I know that most of the time, you mainly look at divergences. A divergence is when we make, for example, a higher high on the price with, so a bearish divergence, I'll draw it, it will be simpler, it's when we make a higher high on the price and here on the indicator a lower low. So here you have a bearish divergence. Here, we have what is called absorption. I remind you, CVD is Cumulative Volume Delta, it allows us to, well, simply, it's the cumulative deltas on a candle that we will see. Here, we are on the 1-hour. When we have a rising CVD, it means we have a positive delta. It means that over the period that has been defined, as I said here, I'm on 1-hour, we have a positive delta, we have buy bias, we have more market buys than market sells. Constantly, it's the buy bias and market sells that move the market, right? Here, you have a BTC sold, 10 BTC bought, and so on and so forth. And when we have a rising CVD, it means we have a greater buying pressure. When we have greater buying pressure with a price that is not making new highs, meaning that buyers are present. Buyers are pushing, except that on the other side, we have absorption, we simply have a counterparty which will be at this level, limit sells, passive sellers who will absorb all the buyers. You see this as lots of buyers hitting, hitting, hitting, hitting, trying to push, and on the other side, sellers preventing buyers from pushing. So this shows us that buyers are pushing, which is still a good sign, but that there is a counterparty on the other side. And this indicates that we need to be very careful, because as long as the sellers have not won the battle, when can we say they have won the battle? If we start going below this level and accepting it, it will mean that all the buyers who entered positions here where the CVD increased, will be underwater. And knowing that quite a few buyers have shown up, it will simply mean that they will be underwater, leading to future liquidations, and we could potentially have a long squeeze. So this is a signal to consider, that currently we are absorbing buyers. We don't have confirmation that the buyers have truly lost control. But in any case, if we start to retrace, all these buyers who are stuck could be a potential sale because when you are a buyer, you are a future seller. So globally, for the moment, I am waiting. When I look at Bitcoin, we are at the level of the 15-minute tunnel, there is no reason to, uh, alarm ourselves, to panic. However, if we start losing 95,000 dollars in the short term, we could enter a corrective phase and go back to look for, for me, this zone of 93,500 to 94,000 dollars, which will be an important level to defend. There is a good confluence of weekly pivot point, monthly pivot point, 1-hour tunnel. This could be an interesting level to take, uh, longs. But step by step, for the moment, we are not there yet. We are in a good zone to, why not, look for longs on intraday if we have a bullish reaction. However, if we don't have a bullish reaction and we lose this level, if you are in a position, it's better to get out because we could have a small long squeeze, close positions, and go back to look for 93,500 dollars. So, that's my opinion on BTC for this part. I'm following the trades I have open. Optimism trade which immediately goes into loss. For those who don't know, I show you everything. When I have gains, I show them to you. When I have losses, I show them to you as well. I will never be the guy who will tell you, "Yes, I have a 99% success rate, everything is going well." No, there are losing trades, there are trades that go well. The most important thing is to have an evolution like this in the long term. To have capital that increases. But there are phases, I lose. There are months, I happen to have negative months. That's it, I'm transparent with you, I've never said I was the best trader. However, I know that in the long term, I perform, and that's the most important thing. But here, we are in the reality of things. For me, that's it, I'm transparent with you. When trades go wrong, I show them to you, and I won't make excuses like "Yes, it's because of the market, it's because of this, there are manipulations." No, if my trade isn't good, that's how it is. As long as I respected the plan. From the moment I have a losing trade in the end, the most important question is: was it a good trade or not? And that's not the result of the trade that tells me if it was a good trade. What tells me if it was a good trade is if I simply respected the plan I had set for myself. That's the most important thing because, for example, I'm talking about certain setups I have, setups on 300 trades, I have 40, 300 trades rather, not 300 trades. I have a 40% success rate, 40-45%. Okay? So I lose more often than I win, but I have capital that does this. Why? Because when I lose, I lose little. However, when I win, I win a lot. When I have a losing trade, do I say it's my fault, it's a mistake? No, it's just the law of probabilities. That's how it is in the long term. However, I know that I perform. So when you have a losing trade, don't say, "Ah, well, it's a bad trade because it's losing." Just ask yourself: did you respect your plan or not? I respected my plan. I have good risk management on this trade, okay? Which is money management, which is well respected. If I lose, well, that's how it is. I log it in my trading journal and move on. So, Optimism is like that. I have ICP which is still ongoing, which is retracing well, stop loss at break-even because I don't want to go back below this level globally. So stop loss at break-even on close. So here, that's a trade, I can't be at a loss or a micro-loss if we start closing lower. Now, there is a risk that, of course, we will go lower and close here. Well, I will also take that loss. But here, we are off to a good start, we have pumped well here. I wouldn't want us to retrace this sideways phase globally. Now, we are retracing. We are globally here in the 15-minute tunnel. This is a level where I want to see a recovery. If I don't have a recovery here, it wouldn't be good. And depending on how the market evolves, potentially, I could take a partial TP here or reduce my exposure a bit. Here, we clearly see the market top signal with this MTP at this level. And well, I still have convictions that we can go higher. It broke strongly. Uh, a good altcoin and quite well decoupled from the others. It always reminds me of this trade. Now, we need to wake up and, but nothing prevents it from being in a correction phase as well. We see it clearly on the trade, we had something similar, right? I enter at the close, a good day, some retracement, and it takes off again. Will we do the same thing? I don't know. In any case, same thing, I respected my plan and we'll see what happens next here on ICP. Regarding Ether. Ether is rejecting towards its H range for the moment. So it hasn't broken through. I was the first yesterday, the day before yesterday, to tell you to be careful with Ether, we are still at a resistance level. This is not where I will position myself. Why? Because the invalidation is complicated here on Ether. Or we invalidate if we go back below this level. But personally, I'm not a fan. So it's certain that if BTC re-enters and retraces, well, Ether could go much lower. That's obvious. For the moment, we are not assuming that. Same on, uh, Ether, we are in a dynamic that is rather bullish, a bit weaker than on BTC. Here, we see it, it's in this sideways phase at the weekly pivot point level. We shouldn't start to break out, close below 3250 dollars, otherwise we will have a high chance of going lower and retesting. I won't talk about re-entry on Ether because it hasn't broken through for the moment. So we would be here, we have a higher probability of rejecting on Ether. If I take the chart in single mode, I don't take BTC into account, I don't take into account that Ether follows BTC a bit depending on whether it pumps or not, and I do an analysis like this, taking this chart. Well, here, we have a higher chance of rejecting. Why? Because we are at a resistance level, and when we are at the top of a range, we have a higher chance of having a selling reaction to go back to the middle of the range or the lower extremity. That's what happened here. That's what happened three times at the lower extremity. So, so there you go. Now, we know very well that there is a correlation between BTC and Ether. If BTC pumps, there's a good chance Ether will follow. But at the moment, it's correcting a bit more. It's a bit weaker than Bitcoin. Before I start with your altcoins, we have here an SP500 that is not far from making a new ATH again. It's crazy the decoupling that is happening right now between the SP500 and cryptos. We'll look at it together. You'll see, when we have a BTC that pumps, well, we simply have an SP500 that drops. We even see during this phase where Bitcoin is pumping well, and we have an SP500 that, an SP500 that is correcting. So it's quite crazy. Uh, this kind of phase is quite rare. And here we are also in this phase where we have an SP500 rising and a BTC falling. As I said, this decoupling is rare. Yet, we are in a period where gold is falling. So, to be followed. Generally, we want to see the risk-on market, SP500, NASDAQ pumping. That's good for cryptos. But here, we are in a bit of a confused phase regarding this. Anyway, I told you that currently the markets are rather complicated to analyze. Uh, so there you go, be careful, I'll take into account much more, I used to take into account the analysis of the SP500, well, not the analysis, the chart of the SP500. Now, I'm doing it much more on a case-by-case basis because we have markets that are, let's say, a bit less connected than before. Gold is also still at ATH after ATH, a consolidation phase for the moment, nothing alarming. And the dollar index continues to perform with an ASP500 performing, which is also quite surprising. As long as it doesn't go back above 100.3, there's nothing alarming for the moment. We are still in a range. When I put the moving averages, it's quite, it's quite flat. We are in the daily tunnel, but globally, we are starting to have flat moving averages. It's normal, we are entering a sideways phase that is starting to last, and as long as we are below the daily tunnel, nothing alarming. If we start to go back above, well, we could validate a longer-term bottom here. Alright, I'll start with the altcoins that were requested for analysis. I'll get my list. I have Atom first. Atom, where are we with that? From a weekly perspective, it remains a clearly ugly chart. Why? We are still making lower lows and lower highs. We have retraced well, we are still in a downward trend. I'll put moving averages. The moving averages are still pointing downwards. We see that we are going above the 1-hour here, but it doesn't last long. So we see that altcoins are still correcting quite a bit. No sign of a long-term bottom. Okay. We are here just on a V-bottom rebound. This kind of V-bottom rebound has a good chance of being retested. I would be surprised if we took off again like this immediately. More likely to do this. In any case, if you are waiting for an interesting signal to position yourself, the best is to wait for this structure, a W-structure. You see how we achieved it at this level. I'm not saying that because we have a W-structure, we'll make an x10, but already if you position yourself on a structure like this, there, we make an x2. In any case, you will have a higher chance of the market going in your favor. Now, you need to have good risk management. There's trade management, there's all that to manage. We see every time we have this kind of structure, it's quite good. Now, in the medium term, Atom, yes, it's certainly not, it's not incredible. Uh, we have put in a bottom here, we have gone back above the 4-hour, we had a good upward trend here, we see it well with the 15-minute which acted as support. We broke the 15-minute, we went to look for the 1-hour, and we took off again, and this time, we didn't manage to hold on. We re-entered, and now we are going to look for the 4-hour tunnel. There is a good zone around 2.37 there, which can be a zone that can act as support. So, that's it for Atom. Regarding TRX, it will be quite quick because it remains in a positive dynamic. We remain in an upward trend here and very little retracement since 2023. We had seen together that if it went above this level, we could start a retracement phase up to the 0.1118 Fibonacci level. We validated the breakout of this range upwards, and then it is calmly starting its bullish phase, still in the greatest calm. Okay? A slow but steady rise, and as is typical for TRX, that's how it works. It's very rare that we have a TRX that will make us x2 in a day or things like that, but it will perform, increase slowly with very little correction. So, bottom validated, retracement phase, we can calmly go look for this zone between 0.18 and 0.786. Now, we are really in an important zone if we get there because that's where everything will play out. Either we put in a continuation W and we make a new ATH and it takes off again. However, if we reject here, we could structure a larger market top or even an inverse head and shoulders. And then it will be a retracement to the previous ATH. So, for me, we are in a trend here, we can continue the trend up to this zone. Here, we have a good level. We are coming back to this previous zone where supply outweighed demand. However, we will have to monitor how the market reacts at this level. And here, in the long term, we are not in a good zone to position ourselves. We are much too high. It's not a professional entry here to take positions. Last crypto, Chainlink. Chainlink hasn't done much in recent months, it's simply a sideways phase. We are coming back to our bad range, we are in a good zone to look for longs. A bullish signal would be the break of the PO and this neckline, as we would go above 15 dollars and we would have the validation of a W structure which could lead us to the upper extremity at the value area high. We are still at relatively low levels when we zoom out the chart. It's more of a zone where we look for longs rather than shorts. And then it's range trading, meaning that the lower extremity is a good zone to look for longs. The middle of the range can be a partial TP, and the value area high is a good zone to take shorts or to lighten a position we have taken. There is still quite a bit of amplitude in x, so there is still room for potential trades. And of course, if we start to re-enter, go below this level, it wouldn't be good. And a really ugly signal would be to go back below 7 dollars, that's very, very long term for Chainlink. It wouldn't be a good signal. Why? Because we would retrace, we would break this range downwards, and we would re-enter this previous accumulation phase. For me, this is really about having an asset that will not perform for a long period. So, here, this is a level that must be defended, otherwise it would really not be good for the future of Chainlink. Honestly, it's an interesting project from a fundamental point of view. It's not the project with the best tokenomics, but it's okay, it doesn't have the worst either. However, it's an essential project for the crypto ecosystem. I still have some in my portfolio. I entered at this level around 5.7 dollars. I re-accumulated around, if I remember correctly, around 13 dollars. I think it was at this level that we pulled back to the bad range. I took some profits on the rise but not a lot. I didn't significantly reduce my exposure on Chainlink either. I know I have a sell order around 34 dollars and I had lightened, I don't remember if it was this part or this part. Sometimes I make so many positions that I don't have everything in mind. But in any case, I am still exposed on Chainlink, but compared to my Bitcoin and Ether exposures, it remains a very small part, and since I have a very good entry, it's easier to manage this kind of position. So, that's it for the altcoins and cryptos. Don't hesitate to tell me what you think, to leave me in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye!