Transcription
In this video, I will present to you an indicator that is absolutely amazing for predicting when market tops will occur in the traditional market, as well as in the crypto market, which is correlated. So whether you are in the stock market or the crypto market, this indicator is just incredible. And I will explain why. First of all, if you are in the stock market, no further definition is needed, but if you are in the crypto market, why should you take the S&P 500 into account directly with this indicator? Simply because, as we know, Bitcoin is correlated with the stock market about 80-85% of the time. This means that when the stock market rises, Bitcoin rises. But when the stock market crashes and experiences a major correction, or even a recession, or even a bear market, then Bitcoin and altcoins are completely swallowed up and fall drastically. Therefore, the stock market is like the big brother of cryptocurrency, and so you have to follow what is happening with this big brother to deduce what will happen with the little brother as well. And the indicator is here, it's called T/Bstock. It's a private indicator that you can only get if you sign up on the platform tradingpro.tech. It's by private invitation. So, when you sign up, you will enter your TradingView username, your TradingView email, and then I will be able to manually grant you access to these indicators within a maximum of 24-36 hours. This indicator is not the only one; there are many. And you will come here to indicators, then to invite only, and you will find them all. For now, I have created six. Others will follow. They are extremely useful, and I will make a video for each one to tell you about their immense added value in your position-taking strategies, as well as risk management. So, in essence, what this indicator shows is something quite simple and at the same time very complex: it represents what is happening in the entirety of the stock market. The entirety of the stock market, as you know, has many indices, many stocks listed on the stock exchange. You can find the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000, the Dow Jones. You can find individual stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Japanese Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, and so on and so forth. And essentially, this indicator takes the variations across all these stocks and across the vast majority of the market. And it gives you the true health of the market. Whereas the index here, the S&P 500, will not necessarily reflect the true health of the market, but will reflect an index that, as we know, is weighted by market capitalization of companies, and we know that in the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq, there are about 7 to 10 companies that represent almost a third of the index's weight. And so, naturally, these very large companies, as we have observed historically, tend to prolong the life of the index before it falls. And so, what this indicator announces here is precisely a potential divergence that will occur compared to the price of the largest stock market index. In short, when it goes down here, it means that the vast majority of stocks traded on the stock market are decreasing in their weekly closing prices. This indicator is read on a weekly timeframe and will therefore identify major corrections and major recessions before they happen. Notably, here you can see that in the first quarter of 2025, from February to early April, we had a major correction due to Trump's tariffs, and so many people thought, well, maybe he will put them into effect, maybe not, but what the market priced in, and we see it thanks to this indicator, is precisely a lightening of positions, or even rather significant profit-taking that occurred on the majority of the market. We see this because, precisely, the indicator, right here, you can see it, it is falling week after week, while the S&P 500 continues to climb. We have a divergence that is not about momentum, it's not about the strength of a move, it's truly about what is happening at the closing price level of all these stocks listed on the stock exchange. And we see that the majority of the market is starting to decline and fall. We find a bit of this metaphor of these very large, heavily weighted companies in the S&P and Nasdaq, in particular, which continue to pull everyone along upwards, but which unfortunately will not be able to withstand a market crash. And this is the inevitable event that one must see beforehand: precisely, the economic degradations in their entirety, rather than an index that will show you a new high, making you believe that it is still bullish. The price tells you one thing, while the indicator reveals what is truly behind the curtain. So for now, you can see, we are moving upwards, there is no problem. The vast majority of stocks are still trading higher. So, here, the movement is healthy. Here, the movement was not healthy. And the indicator, what it will tell you is, okay, don't necessarily sell everything and take profits and realize 100% of your portfolio, but it stinks. We see that there is a real major divergence. So, perhaps set stop losses where you have individual stocks, for example, Nvidia, Facebook, whatever. Or even if you are in crypto, you tell yourself, if there is a crash in the stock market, then I will set my stop losses. I will set them tight because if it plunges, it will not plunge for just one red week; it will plunge for several red weeks, a quarter, and you will see how incredible this indicator is. We can go back in the past, and you will really see, continue watching the video. It's truly quite astonishing. 2021, here we had a bear market which, I remind you, we knew was coming. Macroeconomically, inflation was too high, the Fed was starting to say, well, we will gently start raising interest rates, so we knew it was coming, but we didn't know when. So inflation was present throughout 2021; it would have been a shame to dump your positions here because you would have missed out on incredible gains for the rest of the year. And so, you can get the timing thanks to this indicator. You can see that right here, we started to have a very significant divergence with a price that collapsed here on the indicator. Whereas during the same period, you can see, I am taking exactly the same time periods, we had an S&P 500 that still printed a new high. What this means is the same thing. There was significant position-taking at the top phase, and it was not visible on the index because the large companies that pull the market up before giving way themselves, of course, gave a false signal to the market. We are still bullish, whereas in reality, what was happening behind the scenes was the behavior of very large investors. It's profit-taking at the tops. I also remind you of something I tell you very often: bottoms, when we see them, they don't lie. They don't lie because there is real money entering, and bottoms are formed after bear markets, and generally, it's very large companies, very large management funds, very large banks that buy the bottoms, where retail investors are not yet present. On the other hand, tops are very deceptive because we see a price rising, but what we want to see is an exchange between what are called strong hands and weak hands in financial language. That is, big players selling their positions, which this indicator shows you, while retail, the dumb money as it's called in practice, comes to buy these positions, and so you see a price appreciating when in reality it's not. You need to get out very quickly or simply set, as I told you, tight stop losses because what follows, once again, is precisely bearish weeks, at least a recession. We are not talking about an indicator that will spot a red candle. That's not the principle. The principle is to say, okay, a cycle is finished. A cycle is finished, or at least a very big move is being prepared. So, we knew this was coming because in 2021, well, everyone knew more or less. At least those who were knowledgeable in macroeconomics could know it was coming. I will show you another event that, however, was supposedly a black swan event. I say supposedly because what I am going to show you here can fuel a lot of conspiracy theories. We are talking about Covid. Covid, as you know, we were supposed to be in the presence of a virus that appeared overnight, spread across the entire planet, and led to an economic shutdown. We are not talking about an event that was supposed to have insiders. That's what I would like to explain to you. However, what is quite amazing, as you can see, is that we had a new divergence. From here, up to the market top on this red candle, there was a massive lightening of positions by the very large players in the market, even though we are in the presence of a black swan event that was not predictable. So this reignites the debate a bit; it's not the purpose of the video, of course, but it reignites the debate about insiders. Are there people, very large players in this market with a lot of money, who know what events are going to happen, or at least not that they orchestrate them, but who have information that we, the general public, who only have access to mass media, do not have? And this indicator will precisely show you what they are doing. And so, here in 2019, we had stress in banking liquidity, but you can see that week after week, it recovered well. And here, we had precisely the information that there was very, very significant profit-taking. Everyone, at least the very big players, were in exit mode from their positions. And so, here, you would have done the same thing, not necessarily taking profits everywhere and going 100% cash. That's not what the indicator is for, again, but at least to say, I'm setting an extremely tight stop loss. If you are a chartist, you can say, well, here is the structure. If we break this low here, I'll set the stop losses there. Well, the low was broken, and then we were hit by Covid for a few weeks. It still resulted in a -35% drop in the stock market, and in crypto, well, you know what happened. It was absolutely diabolical. If we go back even further in the past, because the goal is to see the occurrence as well. Am I presenting an indicator that worked once in ten times, or an indicator that spotted more or less 90-95%, or even 100% of the events that we want to avoid? We are in 2026, early 2026, and you can see with the chart, we are already back to 2018, and everything was revealed by this indicator. So it's quite amazing. 2018, right here, the S&P 500 market top in September 2018 with a retracement that occurred until December, two months of decline. We are not talking about a red candle; we are talking about a market that experienced a -20% drop on the S&P 500. In crypto, that's a -40% to -50%. I'll let you check the charts. And here, it's the same thing. Look, we have a clear and sharp divergence between the S&P 500 printing a new high and here, for weeks, a lightening of positions by the big players. What follows is a crash. Same thing. Let's go back even further in the past. 2015, you can see, we had a phase of rise then of lateralization. Again, we don't know what will happen. The chart structures are not broken. There is a range. We could very well break this range upwards. It has happened many times before. Okay, no problem. What does the indicator show if we consider this indicator to be very reliable? Well, up to the breakout, or at least the week preceding the breakout, you can see, I'm doing this very slowly so you can see there's no cheating. We really have a range here. Prices are holding steady, while again, not for weeks, and here even for 2 months, because you can see the range started in May and ended in August, for 2.5 to 3 months, we had an economy that, in its entirety, was truly plunging, and so we had an advance. This indicator provides a significant advance on the market, allowing you to see at a glance what the big players are doing across the entire stock market. And so, it really does all the work for you. Same reflection, we are starting to decline. You don't need to wait until here. Even here, you can see directly this week, you can see that we are ranging here, we are falling, you immediately set your stop loss, no problem. And if they are triggered, for example, here, well, you know that right here we are printing almost a new high. The divergence continues, you stay on the sidelines. You stay on the sidelines, you wait with your cash because you see it, you know this indicator, you see it with your eyes right now, and you will be able to test it. It occurs with 100% certainty, 100% of the time, it works. And what follows is a bearish movement that took a long time, however. It started on July 27th and went until the bottom in February 2016. By the way, you can see, it went until February 2016 and printed the same type of divergence at the bottom. To be completely honest, it spots tops much better than bottoms. But here, you can see that we had a divergence as well, with the S&P 500 continuing to print a lower low, while on the indicator, you have the information that at the global economic level, things are recovering and starting to make higher highs. If we go back even further, and then you can do it yourself on the chart because otherwise it takes too long, we could see all the recessions, you will see that they always work. Here in 2011, we had a bearish movement of around 20% on average. So a good recession in the stock market. Crypto market. Well, 2011 was not very mature, but you know what a -20% on the S&P 500 means for crypto: it buries Bitcoin and buries altcoins even more. You easily get a -70% on altcoins. That's what we experienced in 2022. 2022 bear market in the stock market was between 20-25%. Bitcoin dropped -70% and a bit. The altcoin crypto market dropped -90%. So these are roughly the losses you will avoid. Here, same thing, and the last example so the video doesn't last 20 minutes. We have here a kind of range between these two boundaries with a price that is holding steady. However, what does the indicator show? Well, it shows that since here, no, not at all, it's not holding steady. At the global economic level, we are clearly falling. And so, again, automatically, you snap your fingers like this, you lighten your positions, you set your stop losses, and you wait. Okay, you wait. No problem. Why do I say it works with tops 100% of the time and not with bottoms? Because, typically, you see this bottom formed while we continued to fall on the indicator. So this indicator should really be used for tops. For bottoms, I assure you, I have others that I will present in other videos. And this is precisely what this suite of indicators that I am developing is for. It's to show you all the strategies you can adopt with highly reliable indicators in swing trading, day trading, and even scalping for those who want to trade on very short timeframes: 1 minute, 2 minutes, 5 minutes. And I will present this to you. If you want them, it's not very complicated. You go to the link in the description, there is the link to the site tradingpro.tech. You get your little subscription; the price is really not high. We are at €16 per month, which is really nothing. This is a personal project I have because, as you know, Millenum Crypto, the channel, I work for a company. This is a private project that I have launched myself, on which I am working myself. So, naturally, these are two separate things. So you don't get access through the Millennium subscription to join the private community. So, I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed the video. Leave a thumbs up, subscribe. I am really looking forward to presenting the others to you because they are just incredible, the other indicators. Come and get them, honestly. A small subscription like that to have indicators of this power, I think it's worth it. I think you will agree with me on that. And we will see each other tomorrow for another video on the crypto market. This is Aid.