Transcription
Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. And today in this video, we're diving into the move up in oil, which is quickly approaching a major resistance level. A likely shortable trade on a swing trade basis for me. And also diving into gold and silver, both having good bounces today. The question is, is the forecast still telling us there's downside further, or are we on the verge of a major breakout?
Before we get into that, just a reminder, guys, Gareth's Top Squad is my premium here on YouTube. 10 bucks a month. If you go through the Apple store, they're going to charge you 30%. Just a heads up on that. You can avoid it by going through a browser to purchase. But the point is, every weekend I give out a new coupon code. The last one was for smart money stocks and ETFs, saved people as much if they did the quarterly. We're talking literally, you know, like almost a hundred bucks there. And even the monthly saved, you know, 30 bucks or so, which is well many times more. And I do, I'll do smart money commodities coming up. So, a discount on that service. I'll do another big discount on a course. Um, and we'll do smart money crypto discounts. So, basically, we just rotate. The idea is I'm giving back with discounts, um, in this just to cover the cost of even being on the premium. Plus, you get the YouTube videos. I always forget about that, but you get one to two premium YouTube videos every week just for members. I usually like to give out exact trade setups that I'm looking to get into for those premium members.
All right, let's get into the charts, guys. Here's oil. You guys know I called the low here on oil. I went long. We talked about how this was a gap fill right here. It perfectly filled the gap. This was the gap right here. You can see it very clearly, right? There's a close and then it opened here creating the gap. So, in technical analysis, when you come back to that level, what happens? It's technical support. So that was your buyable level there. Now, as it's going up, I gave you guys this heads up even a week ago that if we get to $87 a barrel on WTI, that's a shortable level, and it's very close. We're now basically approaching 85. Um, how am I going to play this? Do I play the commodity? I actually just trade the ETF. So, the USO is the single ETF. It tracks crude oil. Um, USO here in the US. Um, if you're in some other country, they usually have some sort of generally same sort of vehicle to trade it. But the idea is if we get to $87 a barrel, I will start a short position on oil, and we're very, very close. One little flare up in the Middle East between the US and Iran, and we probably get there in the next day or two.
All right, so that's number one. Beautiful potential chart setup to understand the technicals behind this. This was a support line. Notice we surged. We came in, hit, bounced, hit, bounced, hit, bounced, hit, bounce, broke down. When you break a level that was support, it becomes resistance, and the probabilities favor, and notice I said probability. So, not a certainty, but a probability favoring a pullback.
All right, let's go to gold here, guys. Gold having a good solid day, up about 1.8%. Um, good day in gold. We've had these type of days before recently, but again, notice this level is being stubbornly amazing for gold. If you're a gold bull in the near term, this is the line in the sand for you. And then what you need to see is a breakout above this down-sloping trend line. If we can get that, now you're in business. Now you're looking at a bigger breakout. The level right now is around 4150. It is descending, so it will slowly move lower over time, but that's the level you are focusing in on. You got to get price to break out and confirm above this wedge pattern trend line. Essentially, a wedge pattern breakout. If you get that, you should see a big move up in gold, possibly back to 4500 and then eventually back to the all-time highs and beyond.
All right, I will be releasing an institutional report that I'm giving to all of you guys on gold where I forecast out with specific details when the next big bull cycle will occur and when or how high the price will go. And it's pretty impressive. I am an absolute long-term bull because of what I'm going to reveal in this research report. I'm hopeful. I, I was hoping it would be up last week. Um, developments having a hard time getting the the nuts and bolts done with it, but ultimately it comes with a calculator, and that's really the harder factor. But you'll have your own calculator to put in your own values. But the research report basically shows, uh, for me, probably about a $13,000 price target in the early 2030s as my next upside move. And again, you can read that at your leisure when it is when it debuts.
Okay, so good move up. Essentially, what we're looking at here is a wedge that price will have to break out of by August 14th. That's about 3 weeks from now. If we break out, we're looking at a big move up. If we break this, we should see an algorithmic sell-off that takes us down to this 3500 level. So, really, this is what we're watching. I mean, if you're a gold trader like me, you're focused, laser focused on this.
Now, silver. Let's look at silver. If we have time, we'll look at platinum and palladium, maybe copper as well. But silver again, good bounce, but it's remaining low pivot, low pivot, low pivot, broke down, retraced, rejected. If it comes up, you're going to have resistance between $63 and $64 per ounce. And then if it breaks that, it's not a breakout yet. You still have to get through this line. So, silver compared to gold looks like a little bit of a harder track to the upside. Doesn't mean it can't go there, but again, that's something I'm watching.
Now, for me, downside support number one is $54, uh, an ounce. If it breaks that, the obvious level here is the even number of 50 right here. And if it goes lower, we have $46. So, essentially, as I've said to you, is essentially looking to buy at 54. I'm adding at 50, and then 46 dollar cost averaging. That assumes that we don't get a breakout. If we get a breakout, I have no problem jumping on board. I mean, once the breakout's confirmed, it's a breakout. Um, until then, it's all guesses, right? It's all saying, "Okay, we're in a downtrend, but I'm going to guess that it's going to break." I like to actually see the breakout occur on something that I'm believing is going up over the longer term, but also playing it as a swing trade.
All right, quickly, let's look over platinum and palladium. Uh, platinum and palladium here. If we look at platinum, it continues to hold technical support right here. What's nice about this is if it dumps out, there's major technical support around just below 1500. This is a little bit of a bear flag, so just keep that on your radar. It does have a little bit of a bear flag to it. So, just again, something we're monitoring. And I also am looking at this trend line here, which tells me that if we do dip this low end, see how low pivot, low pivot, low pivot, and even these low pivots that goes down to this area, which tells me if we do dump out, this is a really good buyable level just below 1500 on platinum. Probably coincide with silver around $50. That's what I would assume at least.
Uh, palladium, let's take a look at this one. Palladium's had a decent bounce off technical support right here. Uh, if it comes back in, anything between 1150 and 1090 would be really, really good support. Notice all this consolidation here. That would be a very solid level that I will be watching. And then we can look at copper as well, guys. Keep an eye on copper. Copper's having a great move today to the upside. If copper really makes a move, you're looking at this area up here. But right now, the the pattern that I'd be more concerned with is a potential for a head and shoulders. And what do I mean by that? Well, for those of you that may not see it, you have your shoulder, you have your head all the way over here, and then is this forming a shoulder? Will it eventually curl over? In which case, not only are we going below this support, but but significantly down, probably to this low $5 range. Now, again, I'm not going to pretend I have a good read on this yet because we don't know if we're going to curl over. Like, if we take out the high of the head right here, then it's can't be a head and shoulders pattern, right? So, these are the keys that we must follow when we're looking at a chart. So, I'm going to continue to update you on copper to kind of monitor and give you the guys the latest.
Um, I didn't do NAT gas. I'll quickly touch on natural gas here just to go over that. Nat Gas still holding technical support, but looks like a little bit of a bear flag here, which is not great. You have essentially the the support is bullish because it's at support, but then you have a bearish negation of that, which is the bear flag. So, again, think about it like this. What's a plus one and a minus one? At zero. So you have a net zero on this. Um, so in other words, there's no trade right this second that's high probability one way or the other on N gas. Now, if we get a little bit of a move one way or the other, it may clarify the setup, but until then, I just got to sit back.
All right, guys. I got to get going. You guys have a great rest of your day. Thanks for tuning in. Come join Gareth Top Squatter. Check us out at verifiedinvesting.com for the premium services where I give my exact entries and exits, and you see my live portfolio in all of those services. You can even see the track records on the sales pages. It's all reported. Good, bad, or ugly, it's all there. Real trading, folks. Real stuff. Have a good rest of your day. Take care.