Transcription
Well, the question is, did we have a major reversal today or not? And there's a lot here pointing to it. So, we're going to get right into it.
First and foremost, this is the anchored VWAP on the low of when we had winning and liberation and we once again hit it and then bounced off of it. That is the first thing that we did. This is the second thing. This red line right here is your put wall and that was 660. So, if I drop it down here, you're going to see that we actually sat right on it. We didn't really close over it and we're over it now. The reversal here on the SPY and the Q came after some news and we're going to talk about that, but 590 was exactly what we talked about which was that put wall.
Now, when you tie all this together and a couple indicators that really popped out today, there's two that I'm I'm going to go over for you and then you can overlay these. Let's get to it. I know it's glaringly obvious that you should subscribe to this channel, but 27.5% of you still do not. They are all linked together. They are actionable. Let's get to it. Like and subscribe and please drop your comments. When I do read the comments, even if I don't get time to respond to them, the comments help me create content. So like when I see things about, hey, start walking through trades again, or hey, start doing your trade journal again. It's very helpful to me to know what kind of content is resonating with you that you find helpful.
But let's get to this level where we know where the 590 is. We're going to do the simple things and then we're going to get into the things that I think a couple people probably missed. So there we are on the 200 and we're closing just on it or right above it depending upon if you want to look at the glass half full or half empty. I think this is super interesting today because you had every reason to sell off and you didn't. So when we do the simple things and look at the RSI you'll note that we're just flatlining. You're starting to get this deterioration and we can see that deterioration but I think there's a couple things about that. You drop it to a 4 hour and you're still not going anywhere.
Now I'm going to clean all this off. And then I'm going to go to the pre and the post and we're going to drop it there. And let me just move that up a little bit. Hope it doesn't get goofy. Did not get goofy. So you can start seeing the walking it down a little bit. But you're not really going anywhere. And this is where it gets super interesting to me because if you were going to fall, I've been saying this. I don't know what they're waiting for to really crack it. You know, come in today and they're going to flush it. That's going to be it and then we can rebuild on it. The larger issue is some of the comments. Now, for time sake, I will get into the comments on Saturday's deep dive. I'm not going to get into it right now, but I will get into it on the deep dive.
What I really want to focus on is the following. And I think a lot of people miss this and myself included. If I wasn't talking to some people that are in the community, and that's the one thing I really like about it. You know, I stress this to everybody. I don't see everything, but a lot of people would look at this and look at the lows and look at the daily. And this is the New York Stock Exchange. And frankly, I think it's really the one you should look at. But you can see how all the new highs went away. And you know, green is good. We don't have any. And then you can see where you're at in here. Most people won't dive into these numbers. And I'll show you what I mean by dive. That's why I like using this one because I can break it down into the 4 hour. And if you know what really happened here today, and it's a start. It's not the beall end all. So everyone just calm yourself. But it's a start.
So what we started doing today is the breath actually did not hit new lows today when we took that out on the New York Stock Exchange. And frankly that's the one I care about the New York Stock Exchange more than any of them. And I can run them on any. Now your advanced decline your V is definitely going to be to the downside. But this is where it gets interesting and I can get into this in a separate video. When you have huge advanced declining volume that's against you and then at the same time the breath of the market is not hitting new lows and you want to always make sure of this. You want to see how this is going. So most people will they'll look at the day and then they'll not really take they'll not really dive into this and I think they're doing themselves a huge disservice. I'd watch this area and I'd watch this low like a hawk.
Some of the news, some of the rhetoric that's coming out of there, that's why oil dropped. And we'll get to those names. That's the first thing I want to go over with you. If you looked at it this way and you just looked at the daily, you're basically in line. When you break it out into a 4 hour, you're not in line. You actually came in a lot more. And I think that that's really important to get. As I like to say, the devil's in the detail. So, that's the first thing that I I think a lot of people are going to miss. This is the second. Actually, there's three that are really big. But here's this the second one, and then I'll go from there. See where you're at on the low here? And this is just on a 30 minute. And you see where you're at in here and then you come to here and you drop it like it's hot because the kids still do say that and then you made that low and then here you are. You have a divergence here. Watch this on the half hour. See again the devil in this stuff. It's in the details and you really want to mark off the lows and then go okay well we just took out the lower low. What happened? So that's the 60-minut. Then you go to the 4 hour and you would go well where are we here? Where are we here? And you have a divergence and it's a big one. That's not like a little divergence. It's a big one.
So, this is where it gets super interesting because this is a really easy trade for people. All you have to do is just use this low. And if the low breaks, you're like, "Okay, well, we took out 6,600. This is Kaiba. It's gone. It doesn't matter." I'm speaking more technically to get you through tomorrow than what is really driving the market because I think that's important because tomorrow you have about 30% of the market value of the S&P that expires actually of the total stock market that expires. So that's going to be a fun day. But I think what you want to do with this over everything is just understand where you're at and what exactly is going on. And for me that this is pretty significant.
So once you have that laid out, I want to give you one more thing to look at. Now I'm going to make this a little brighter for you. But below is it's called Smi and this is stochcastics momentum. And I find it very helpful when I'm trying to get an understanding of let's click on that. We'll make that white. And then what we'll do is we'll make that there. And then we'll just make this yellow. And as someone likes to say, absolutely glaring. So now you can't miss it. And in front of you is just a daily chart. And you'll be like, "Okay, well that's not really telling me much." What you want to do from this is when you get down to here, you're pretty oversold with stochcastics from a momentum standpoint. Meaning this can only go so far. And that's one of the reasons why I like it. When it gets to a certain level, you're pretty much there. You can see it gets super extreme, but when it does, you know, when it snaps, it's going to snap.
So, if I drop this to the 4our here, and what we're looking for are crosses. And what we're looking for here is just the line crossing the signal line. And when you see that, which it did today, if you go back historically and you look at when this crosses that signal line here, it crossed the signal line, ran up, pulled back. All right? So, from the cross of the signal line from 68.83 83 down. You were down 20 what? 20 points at one point. Okay, you can deal with that. You can live with that. If you're here and you notice it and I'm saying just go through it over and over again and you'll notice I don't really prefer these. I prefer them under and an oversold stance and then see from where they are. Even if I rally up and come back down, you'll note that when it does this, it tends to form a divergence. So, even if this leads to a divergence, where I'm going with this is that you're setting up in the next couple days to most likely put some kind of bottom in. I think that's what's happening here. And you can go through this yourself, but oh, it I'm not doing anything to it, guys. It's called Smi, and you can go play with it yourself and knock yourself out, but it's definitely something that's worth paying attention to.
Now, what we really need to see for confirmation, and they made life super easy for us, this is the 20, the 50, and the 200 stocks above on a percentage basis. Put a little alert here. You should be able to do it. And you just drop it there like it's hot. And then you just click on it and you go little alert. Yay. And these alerts will go off when you hit that higher high. Once you had to start hitting a higher high on these, you have confirmation that you're at a bottom because you're not going to take out the breath is not going to get that strong until this starts happening. That's what I would focus on right now.
So the question becomes, can we actually bottom here? And then I'll get a lot of comments like, but you said, look, man, I didn't think we were going to war. Did you have war in your bingo card? Because I didn't. So understand that this is a moving target. I didn't know when I was telling everybody to start looking at energy names that we were going to give Russia a license today. If you knew that, you're smarter than me and you're more plugged in than I am. Right? So, when we start to see oil rally up and then all of a sudden the bottom drop out of it, well, maybe somebody knows something that we don't. This is why we always honor our stops. Okay? I think it's really very important to understand this that you have to adapt. You know, the saying goes, adapt or die. It's just a fact. You have to adapt to this.
So what we saw today was Russia get a license. Israel come out and say what Israel came out and said, "Oh, by the way, this will be over faster than you think." And so what started to happen when Israel came out and said that, you started to see all these names pull back. CVX, Exxon, we had this great trade and I walked you guys through the trade yesterday. It was the ah heck, it was the U the UNNG trade that led to us buying LNG. And you know, we did this trade and then today. So, as you guys know, I do these informally because it's just the best way to actually learn and I do want to do more formal educational videos, but when I'm trading during the day, in the beginning of the day, I type John types I trade and talk. And where I was going with this is yesterday when we saw the LNG news, we got involved in this like ASAP. Held it over and then we're up. And this was my whole point on this trade. These were the trades we did. We bought the micron at like 2:22 422 this morning that we just nailed that trade. Anyway, so LNG.
So I my point was that if I get to 300 I'm out. Audi 500 as the kids say. But we got to a point with that where I'm up 20% in two days. Like what am I waiting for? And then you could start seeing the LG 5 minute RSI was 99. Like again what are you waiting for? And so as it's moving up I'm trimming. So, I trimmed at 296 and I left half on and I raised the tape to 271, but I kicked the rest of it as soon as I started seeing the news because I think a lot of this, you have to think about this. You go into our situation, our situation escalates. So, we get the situation move, right? We have the earnings here, but you get your situation move. So, they already built some of that in, then we get the super move, and then we get this. A lot of this is baked in, though. Now, maybe it keeps going and we go from there. But when you start seeing stuff like this where you're here and your RSI is like 95 or 96, I mean, it's pretty insane. If I get rid of the pre and the post, you'll see it. We were at 99. Like, it's just it's not sustainable. It and and it could stay up there for hours, but eventually it's got to give. And when it does give, it usually leads to something like this. So, why wait? My target was 300. By the time it broke, 296 is where we were getting out. But you're making that money now. You can stay in these things, but they're they are getting tired. They are reversing a little bit here. And that's actually good for the equity market.
This was one we were in for a while. We bought it for a different reason at 11. We bought it when they took Maduro out. This new Nike sweats cuz I figured the guy in Colombia, he'd get nervous. And then you can see this reversal today where we started getting the shooting star. You can wait for it. You can wait for that to break or you could just lock it in. Same thing with the CVX. We bought it back here with the new Madoro Nike sweatuit that was being shown to everybody and then eventually it just got to the point where I'm like, "Okay, a lot of this is starting to get really built into the market." And I get it. I'm not going to get the last dollar. I don't need it. But when you start seeing these turns, you want to pay attention to it.
The biggest thing for me was when I went through Micron last night, and Micron was literally, and watch last night's video because I don't think a lot of people got how great this quarter was. And the stock dropped. And the reason the stock dropped is the reason why SanDisk is exploding. And I'll explain it. It's also the reason why you're seeing Seagate Western Digital go up so much because the memory needs a place to be to store all that memory. Where you going to store it in storage, right? Single state drives, HDD, it's not rocket science. So if you think about it from Micron standpoint, the quarter was a blowout. And the problem with the quarter was, oh, they're going to spend more money. Any business is going to spend more money if they're making 81 cents on the dollar. Like if I'm going to sell a product and I'm going to make another 81 cents and make 181 like I'm going to do that for infinity. Anybody would kill for these gross margins. So they're expanding out is what their penalty was according to people. My thought on it was they just wanted a reason. So I actually owned 425 puts. So this morning when it gapped down, I just bought stock against the puts, traded it up, and then that was pretty much it. But I do like the name.
But here's the thing. What people don't understand about this move, which was substantial, and I do have a swing on that, and I have calls on at the time of recording this, and just to go over this, the one thing that SanDisk said, and they said it here, and they said it here, is they're not going to expand. So when this ran up, the reason it came down was because it was not going to expand. They refuse to come out and build a new data center. So what they're doing here is they're saying we're not going to build one. So if they're not going to build one, then they're not going to have the same issue that people are concerned about with Micron, which is why this went up. Either way, to me, it's very clear that we're with the NASDAQ and where the NASDAQ is that the four horsemen are not going anywhere but higher. If the market's going to go higher, it's going to be led by these names. And if it's not going higher, then these names are going to get smoked. But it's very clear that they couldn't wait to pile into those names. A matter of fact, it's very clear they waited.
Tomorrow you have OP X to be really careful of that. You have about 30% and then go from there. If you're trying to get in the community, please look in your inbox. There should be a a letter that went out to a small percentage of the people that are on the wait list. That is it.