Transcription
Hi guys, my name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto. I'm going to bring you two different charts.
This chart here is really more like three or four charts in one and it's basically going to show us that the Bitcoin top appears to be likely to occur toward the end of this year, really around November or so. And I'll break this down for you in a moment. Furthermore, I'm going to share my views on what I think is happening next in the Bitcoin and crypto cycles. And I've got my forecasts here, and I also plotted them on this chart for visual representation.
All right, so first of all, this chart here is the Bitcoin cycle chart. And I want to give a shout out to JDK Analysis on X. You can find his account at the_JDK99. He does excellent work. Like I've said before, this looks like beautiful artwork. I mean, you could hang this on your wall. It's pretty, but it's also informative. It's very useful. And like I said, this is about three or four charts in one. And why do I say that? Because it shows three measurement methods all in the same chart.
We have the having to the peak. This line right here, see having four having to the peak represented by this box right here. We have the cycle low to the peak which is represented up here not in a box but these gray lines are the cycle low to the peak measurement and I'll get into that in a moment. And lastly we have the cycle high to the cycle high represented by this box right here from for example the top of 2021 to the top of wherever we may land.
And so let's start with the having to peak. Having to peak shows, and this is a little bit much to take in at first, but bear with me and I'll do my best to break this down for you. So in the having to peak box right here, this is one of the three methods we're going to look at for determining the next top based on the prior cycle tops. We've got it labeled as C1, this is cycle one over here, C2, cycle 2, and C3, cycle 3. And that's the basically the entire past history of Bitcoin because it's only been around for about 15 years summarized into the three major cycles 1, 2, and three. And it's further subdivided into these three different shaded boxes. And we may get into that in a moment, but it's not necessary at this time. And then we have our current cycle shown in red on both of these different boxes here.
So when measured from the having to the cycle top, cycle one peaked right here. You don't need to look at this line here after the peak. We're really just interested in the peak which occurs here, but it's just showing how the cycle went and it's labeling the line. Cycle 2 peaked right here. And cycle 3 also peaked right here. the same distance from the having point for cycle two and for cycle three. You can see it's labeled right here. It's a cycle two and cycle three peak. You know, the cycle top occurred the same distance from their respective having events. Cycle one was different because the peak was very premature or earlier, but that could be explained by lengthening cycles, which to me this chart sings over and over, lengthening cycle. And uh we'll kind of get into that as we do each of these different measurements. But you can see that right here lengthening cycle is even present because cycle one topped here. Cycle two and three topped later. Okay.
Now where would that put the peak in terms of the current cycle? Well, that would put the peak where we are now today. That would say that the top is in now. Okay. Now I don't think that's the case because I'm contrasting this with a lot of other metrics. A big one being sentiment. And I don't think that sentiment has reached that euphoric FOMO stage where the dumb money quote unquote really without quotes it really is dumb money is chasing after via hype the price at irrational levels and that's the reason why the price gets pushed up parabolically. It's because of the dumb money. It's actually irrational money. Rational money buys at a fair market value and a appropriate reasonable price. Irrational money is what causes these hype bubbles, these blowoff tops because it's a euphoric mentality. Dumb money is actually chasing the price too high. That is the reason for these blowoff tops. And so I don't think that we've really seen that yet. We've seen more of a methodical stairstepping upward of the Bitcoin price. So that's what the having to top measurement shows us. It shows us that we would normally or ordinarily be topping right now.
Now if you want to extrapolate that, you know, via uh the diminishing returns and the lengthening cycles, you might say that it's more like right here, more like the end of 2026. If you go straight up like this, say like, okay, that maybe the same distance from cycle one to cycle two and then again from cycle three to cycle four. Well, that would put us right about smack dab at the end of the year. And personally, I think that's what this chart is most showing.
So, now that we've covered the having to the peak model, let's look at the measurement of top to top. So, again, we have the cycles labeled cycle 2, cycle 3, and then the current cycle. I'm actually not sure why the cycle one is omitted, but maybe that's because it's off the chart there. Yeah, in fact, that is why because it goes it starts off this chart. This would be cycle one, but we don't have the prior top shown here. Um, and then we have cycle two, top to top, cycle three, top to top, and then cycle four, the current cycle. So, this does make sense. And our current cycle is drawn in red. And so where did cycle 2 peak relative to if we were to measure it on the current cycle? This is cycle two, remember? But it's from top to top. And so that would put us right here about looks like about 2 to 3 months in the future from today. And then likewise, if we measure the cycle three top to top, he's using the second peak here. And I'll go over the alternate peak choice in a moment. But if you use that measurement from peak to peak of cycle 3, and then you assume that's going to repeat in cycle 4, the current cycle, that would put us right here. This should say C3. I think that's a typo. This is the C3 peak right here. And again, it's telling us that the peak would happen basically now. It's saying that that would be today's peak. But this is not accounting for any diminishing returns.
Furthermore, if we were to assume that the first peak was the actual valid peak in 2021, it basically pulls this entire box to the left by this much distance. And that would mean that interestingly the cycle 2 peak would be way over here in the past by uh 4 months or 5 months and the cycle 3 peak would be back even further by about 8 months. So these are not valid measurements in my opinion and I think that this kind of hints at the fact that we are going to have an extended cycle based on the prior cycle and that cycle was extended based on the prior cycle from that. And it does make sense. I mean look at the chart. It's a logarithmic extending cycle. Everything is stretching thinner. The highs are getting lower. The lows are getting higher. The distance between the cycles are extending. And it's even evident up here in the months, you know, you have from bottom to peak 24 months, cycle one. On cycle two, you have bottom to peak 28 months. That's four more months. Then from cycle three, you have bottom to peak 35 months or probably more like 29 months if you were to take the peak prior to that, the first peak. But either way, it is extending each cycle.
And at first um when I was looking at this chart, I didn't quite understand why it said month 34 here because that does not continue the pattern of an extending cycle, which is clearly the pattern at least for these three data points. And likewise, when you take from the having event to the peak, you have 12 months for cycle 1, and then you have 17 months having to peak for cycle 2. And then you have 18 months having event to cycle peak for cycle 3. Again, assuming you're not taking that first peak. So then why would you go back down? Why would you go backwards and say month 17 here when you would expect if anything a lengthening cycle, right? Well, it's because he's just showing us where we are today. Today we are on the 34th month when counting from the cycle bottom. And today we are on month 17 when counted from the having event. So if let's say that the having event occurs in December, we would have to add three months that would make sense. That would fit this pattern a lot better. And likewise, I'm not saying I know this for sure, but if the bull run peak this cycle happens in December, then that would be another approximately three more months. So that would put us at month 37. And again, at least that would extend the cycle. That makes more sense. It kind of even makes more sense to go a little beyond that, which makes me wonder if we're going to see maybe like a January peak or a February peak. But somewhere at the end of the year, give or take a couple months looks likely to me.
Okay. So, now we've covered from the having event to the peak and we've covered from the peak to the peak and we've got our answers that they're kind of lining up to this red box here. They're saying, "Hey, the bull run peak is likely to occur in this range right here." So, lastly, we have from the cycle low to the top. And then you can see the first cycle peak would have been right here in the past. So, that clearly wasn't it because we've already been making new all-time highs since then. The second cycle peak would have occurred right here in the past again. So, that's been proven wrong. Again, further giving credence to the theory of an extending cycle because it has been extending just right here. Proof is in the pudding. And then the third cycle peak taken from the low to the high. Again, that's from here to here because this is the third cycle. Low to the high of the second peak would put us just about a month ago. So last month would have been where the peak would have been. So, you'd have to tell yourself, well, that's where the top was, and you'd be ignoring the fact that there's an extending pattern to this, a lengthening of cycles. I think that all of this really points to lengthening cycle. So, I think that that's another clue that this was not the top a month ago. Some people think it was, but you're going to get that every leg up. I do not think that that was the top a month ago. I think that we are likeliest, not for sure, likeliest to make a peak around the end of the year. Give or take I would say 2 months in either direction from the end of 2025. So it could be February, it could be November, somewhere in that range feels like a pretty safe zone to be evaluating whether we are at the bull run top.
Now you can see from this chart down here below that there is no peak yet, at least as far as this metric goes. and he hasn't defined this and I'm not actually sure what this is showing but it's clearly an oscillator and it's overheated and underheated as it moves through the cycles. Uh very similar to like what CBBI would be showing. So at least as per this metric we also do not have a top yet which would further validate the fact that a month ago was not the top. It's not overheated and I can verify and back that up with every other metric that I've been looking at. So to me that makes sense. Okay.
So that's what we're seeing on this chart here. Now, on this chart, I've just basically showed you what I think is going to be happening in the future. It's my forecasts from here to essentially the end of the cycle. Okay? And I've drawn it here in white on the right side to kind of visually show you what I'm talking about. So we have Bitcoin up here first chart, ETH BTC second chart, Bitcoin dominance third chart, and then total 3ES which is the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum and stable coins all excluded down here. Okay, this is just my opinion. This is not fact obviously, but my forecasts as I most confidently believe them, you know, it's my base scenario is that Bitcoin priced in USD, the Bitcoin price is going to go higher this cycle and we have not topped yet. And we kind of just covered that on the last chart, but I could show you five other charts, 10 other charts that all show that I don't think that the Bitcoin USD price has topped yet. And I think that we have more to go. I think we have more uh fuel left in the tank. even just taking sentiment as one chart or CBBI all of its nine charts. That's kind of what I'm talking about here. So, I don't think that the Bitcoin price has topped this cycle. I do think we will go higher. Okay? And I've shown that here how I think that we'll have a pump up, a little bit of a cool off, and a final move into a cycle top. And I've put it right around 2026 because again, I don't know exactly. It's it's going to be a month or two in either direction most likely. Okay.
Do I think we're going to see an extended cycle where it goes like into mid or late 2026? No, I don't personally because I think that that's too far. And I think that the cycle will have run its course by then. A lot of people are going to be calling for that. A lot of people are going to be calling and have been already calling for an extended cycle or questioning that that could be happening this time. And while it's not out of the cards entirely, I mean, anything's possible. Yeah, it could happen. It's not my base case. I do not think that's the likeliest outcome. And you get that every bull run. I mean, I remember last bull run cycle where people were calling for super cycle and it did not happen. In fact, it was a stunted cycle. It was the opposite. People got that dead wrong. Many people got that wrong. It was like so many people were calling for a super cycle. Okay. It seems like uh people have a very short-term memory when it comes to crypto cycles because they think here we are again and oh, could be a super cycle. like m could be but probably not is my guess. I think that we'll have a correction in late 2026 and in fact we'll be probably by the end of 2026 we'll be deep into the bare market and then we'll bottom sometime in 2027. That's what I actually think is going to happen.
All right, my second forecast is that the Ethereum price as priced in Bitcoin, the ETH BTC price is actually going to drop first before it climbs more. And why do I say that? I say that, and this is going to tie into Bitcoin dominance, too. And why I'm going to say what I'm going to say about Bitcoin dominance. I think that ETH BTC is going to drop more first before it climbs again because of the steepness of the move that we just saw from the bottom, you know, of ETH BTC back here in early 2025, especially from this point right here. ETHBTC just took off vertically. And generally, you get some kind of a pullback after an extension of that magnitude. I mean, that is a heck of a vertical run. You know, it's kind of like back here. We have this big vertical run and then you get a cool off. I'm not saying it has to go back to the lows. I don't think it's going to. I'd be surprised if it even breaks below this point right here. Like I think 0.026 is the absolute lowest, you know, give or take that it's going to go. I think it's likely to hit 0.03. It's very likely to hit .003. Maybe it'll hit 026. I don't think it'll go much lower than that. If it does, I don't think it's going to make a new low, a new bottom, and I think that the bottom is in for ETHBTC. But based on the steepness of this move, I absolutely do feel confident or I think that there's like an 80 plus% chance that we're going to see a correction of ETHBTC at least down to 0.03. And to put my money where my mouth is, I actually sold 100% of my ETH, of which was 50% of my portfolio up here toward the top around 0.04 basically. And I intend to buy it back. I'm not sure exactly where yet. I haven't decided. Either 003 or slightly lower. I don't really want to miss out on that, but if I do, it's not the end of the world because I'm holding Bitcoin, right? I'm still exposed to the gains that will be had in the remainder of the market up here where Bitcoin's climbing. But I would like to be exposed to Ethereum for this last run up because I think that ETH is going to outperform Bitcoin pretty massively, especially for that final extension to that blowoff top possibly in December or January, you know, 3 weeks after the top of Bitcoin over here. And I've tried to show that even though it's very small here, that the peak here is a little bit after the peak right here. Okay.
So that's what I think is happening next and why I think ETHBTC is going to drop first and then it's going to pump to new all-time highs and it's because it's super super steep extension we've seen already and it hasn't really had much of a cool off or pullback especially from this point right here. And lastly, I feel strongly that Bitcoin dominance well the top is in for the cycle for one thing and secondly that it's going to climb first before it drops more. Now, this could be a bit of a controversial subject because a lot of people are extremely pumped about alt season and thinking that it's coming now, like that we're in it. Like right here, this massive drop, this vertical steep drop, that's the most euphoric part of alt season that there is right there. It's really just like this was 2 months and back here in 2017 it was one month. Keep in mind these are weekly candles. So, here's four weekly candles. Basically, that was alt season in 2017. was 1 month and then in 2021 it was about 2 months. Now, yeah, you can count it from here and say it was like three or three and a half months, but really it was two solid months of the steepest descent of Bitcoin dominance and ascent of of alt season right here. Okay.
So, yes, I think that the top is in for Bitcoin dominance. I do not think we're going to make a new top. Um, I feel pretty confident about that. I'd say like 70% odds of that call. And I feel even more confident that maybe like 80% odds that Bitcoin dominance is actually going to climb first, much to the dismay of um altcoin holders, but it's going to climb first. Maybe just for a couple months, you know, not not forever, not for a super long period of time, but again, it it's seen a pretty big drop. There's actually a trend line you can draw through the bottom of Bitcoin dominance right now. And it's been respecting that basically from this point right here, this bottom, this little low right here, and the current low. If you draw a trend line through that, it fits. So, that's another reason why I think that this could be a temporary pause point, a little rebound, and then a drop. And yes, that would be not great for alts because Bitcoin dominance um when it goes up means that it's sucking liquidity out of the altcoin market. And when Bitcoin dominance is heading down, when it's plummeting down, that means that liquidity is being sucked out of it into the alt market into alt season, I think that we're going to hit to minimum 60% Bitcoin dominance. Um, likeliest kind of range is 62%. Yeah, it could go above that, but I think the most likely kind of conservative range we're going to hit is around 62% for Bitcoin dominance. And keep in mind, right now it's at 58.26%. So, that's 4% climb of Bitcoin dominance that I'm expecting, but a bare minimum of 60%. I would say if it doesn't hit 60%, then I got this call wrong. Okay, I'm expecting at least uh it to hit 60%. But more likely 62%. And why do I feel like there's an 80% chance we're going to see this move up is largely because of what I said about ETHBTC. because you have this extended, overheated, very impulsive move that hasn't really seen much of a correction for ETHBTC, which necessitates some kind of a pullback. I mean, it's very likely, right? I don't think that we're quite at the blowoff part of the cycle just yet. I think that's a couple months away from beginning. And in the interim, I think we need a cooloff period because of that giant vertical move. I already covered that.
So because Ethereum makes up the biggest detractor from Bitcoin dominance, like Ethereum is the largest portion of the altcoin market. So if Ethereum moves up, it has the biggest market cap. If Ethereum pumps, then that causes Bitcoin dominance to drop almost invariably. So, if I think that Ethereum is going to drop right here in terms of ETHBTC, well, I'm basically saying that I think the inverse is going to happen for the Bitcoin dominance chart. When Ethereum moves down, Bitcoin dominance moves up. When Ethereum moves up, Bitcoin dominance moves down. And that's actually probably the biggest reason I see Bitcoin dominance climbing to at least 60% or maybe 62 plus% in the next couple of months is really heavily reliant on the fact that ETHBTC is going to be dropping. That's what I think is going to happen this Bitcoin bull run cycle and Ethereum cycle and altcoin cycle. I think that we are not there yet. I have a lot of other metrics to cover. If you haven't watched my Tether dominance video, I highly recommend you do. I've been keeping an eye on it and it also says we are fairly far from a peak.
So at a rough guess, I think the peak this cycle is going to be somewhere around $150k on up, but no more than $200,000. I really feel like that's pushing it somewhere in that range is where I've got my my sniper target set on my sniper sights. Uh maybe that's a bad pun to use these days, but I'm giving the news. I've got my uh my binoculars set on uh 150 to 200K uh right around the end of the year, like the late part of the year. I think that December is pretty likely, January is possible, etc. And I think that we will see an alt season. It's just that alt seasons are generally quite short and that's why so many people get it wrong because the steepest part of alt season, like I said, was two months long in 2021 and it was one month long in 2017. And you have people who've been buying alts through this whole part of the cycle, like all the way up. They've been buying alts, buying alts, buying alts. Well, guess what? Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. And then they'll be right for like 3 months, maybe this cycle, if you have an extending cycle, which I think we will.
All right, that's all I have for you. I hope this was useful. Smash that like, please share, please subscribe, please follow. Have a great day. [Music]