Transcription
Wow. We don't see this very often, guys. Huge amounts of bulls and bears doing battle on the most important market sector. As everybody starts to load in on calls and puts with over 60% of the last 24 hours being written on the call side, it's clear to say that someone is starting to come out on top. But could that be a sign for all of us that things are about to heat up in these markets when it comes to extreme volatility both ways? Well, some of the precious markets are starting to say that with gold and silver breaking out over the last two sessions that we've talked about, squeezes occurring in other markets themselves, and of course, some massive opinions on both sides. Join us as we go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos. Whether you're an investor or trader, this show is not to be missed. We'll see you soon.
Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you're an investor or trader, you're in the right place. So, make sure to subscribe and of course smash that bell icon. It was a bad day for semiconductors, which is the first we can say for a while. And it was a pretty good day for software breaking through potential Woff bases, which we've been talking about for some time on the channel. But I thought we'd begin by discussing some of the biggest information out there before we go into the options walls and of course the key levels on charts. And we'll start here with maybe a little bit too much FOMO starting to come into markets. According to the latest data here from Zero Hedge, almost 60% of every S&P option today was written as a call. And that's pretty unusual as you can see here on the chart over the last kind of 6 to 10 years. And we just haven't seen levels like this in quite some time. So it shows that people are positioning very heavily and we can also see something very similar when we take a look at bearish positioning on semiconductors. How have we rallied so much? Well, everyone's been going bearish as well on those and we're starting to see a bit of a flip which could be a very important signal.
Let's now talk about though abundance mindset. Something that we do uniquely here on the channel that I don't think enough people talk about is just to realize there is always another opportunity in markets. Yes, you may have missed out on semiconductors or maybe you're rallying it still or DRAM or something else, but there's always another one. And I just want to kind of highlight here, keeping things simple is a really great strategy sometimes in these markets. We can see here Tesla was pretty bad for a while. And you guys know if you've been watching the channel that we kind of just were talking about this for what seemed like months because I guess it was and then suddenly things changed just a few weeks ago where we got a change of trend at least in the first time frame on of course the basic charts here. Now we write more about this in our courses over at fxevolution.com but it was a change of trend and it then came back down and hit that dynamic resistance which now became dynamic support. And since then, Tesla's actually outperformed what many people thought in terms of expectations, breaking through the call wall over the last 24 hours. I just want to really kind of mention that, which we'll talk about later as well with the options, just because there's always something else, guys. And I think that's really important to note when it comes to these markets.
Speaking of expect the unexpected, have a look here at Nvidia versus semiconductors. Yes, the once best stock in the market has actually been underperforming semiconductors now for almost two years in terms of where it's come back to. And this kind of shows you that at least since September of last year, it's been in a real downward trajectory as Claude has become the most popular investment. And of course, that means different semiconductor chips as well. It just goes to show how fickle this AI kind of run is at the moment. And if things change, market money flows will go in that direction pretty quickly. To note though, semiconductors and Nvidia in particular did start to perform better off that demand zone over the last two sessions. So, we've bought it up just two sessions ago for this reason because again, you got to think about these cross analysis pairs, which is something we do here. And if you're interested in more of these charts and also some of the things we share on the daily show, we often retweet them over on our ex channel links in the comments description down below and pin comment.
So, let's begin with the big news storylines. And I really want to bring this one to you guys because it is a fairly big story line. More of the centipede, the big flywheel continuing when it comes to AI. So, what have we got? We've got Nvidia making a news announcement. Says Nvidia and Iron announced strategic partnership to accelerate deployment of up to 5 GW of AI infrastructure. Now, hidden in this kind of deal, we basically have a pretty interesting feedback loop. Nvidia provides capital to of course Iron. Iron expands the infrastructure. Then Iron buys more Nvidia chips. Yes, you heard that right guys. It's pretty funny how all of this is working. What are your comments in the description down below? This is the AI run at the moment. It is a big flywheel. So, it's not the first time we've seen this announcement. It's probably not the last and it just continues to go on.
Another big one was of course CoreWeave overall new overall earnings because yeah, it was a beat in some ways but also a miss. Now the big notable here which sent it down in actually after hours trade I believe it was actually down a little bit more than this was that we saw a backlog of around hundred billion which is a record but I just want to read to you a little bit of numbers here. Interest expense is now eating 26% of every dollar they make. So they realistically have to pull off this backlog. It has to be executed. It has to be perfect. And if it stays this heavy, guess what guys? Dilution. Usually the market will be asked to front the money again. And that's something that we've seen a few times here in the AI run so far is we're getting a lot of businesses that are burning a ton of cash and they're constantly going back to the market and saying, "Please, me, please, sir, may I have some more?" And at the moment, it's all good. We're getting the money. Yes. Every time, every funding round continues to go at a higher pace and a higher rate. But if that changes, things change very quickly. So, this is a story that we believe we'll have to be following for 2026 because of course, if we don't uh when eventually it does turn and earnings don't really live up to the future hype expectations, yeah, you can get caught pretty badly.
Now, why are we mentioning this? Well, of course, Michael Bur came out over the last two sessions and he shared this chart here from BTIG and it basically shows that there are similarities between the top 10 stocks in the NASDAQ in the dotcom boom and where we are right now. I also found it pretty interesting that SNDK was there in both of them. So, there you go. 3,960% in terms of one-year performance for this stock. It's absolutely unbelievable, especially when you compare it to Western Digital. And it just goes to show that again, each bubble generally is bigger than the last, but they do have some similarities. And I do think this is an interesting read. It's not a timing tool, nor does it tell us, oh, you know, uh, we have to sell the market or anything like that. You obviously follow the trend, you follow the flows. That's the most important thing. I actually posted about this on X and I'll be writing about it in our weekend newsletter. Free, totally free. One institutional insight. Links in the description down below as well for that guys. But it does go to show that we are entering into a period of time where markets are looking similar to that com one and I think the thing is everyone says that so when everyone says that often it doesn't still fall but what we have had over the last couple of sessions is some big trades.
So let's talk about flows because we did get the second largest transaction ever according to volume leaders here for AMD and that's pretty big in itself you know massive one but we look for clusters. So, not only did we get a big one in AMD, but we also saw a big one in Micron, the third largest transaction ever recorded up the top here. And then we got a monster in Intel. And if you've been watching Intel, wow, that stock is mad and it has gone ballistic. And if you look at that on a monthly, then you might actually go blind. So, be careful, guys. Uh it's it's a scary chart when you're looking at that. If you've been riding Intel, though, off that Woff bottom, congrats to you. I I don't know if I would have been able to hold it that long in any case because I didn't actually think a year ago Intel would be this high. But again, it does go to show why good technical patterns at the bottom. Plus, of course, news that continues to feed upon itself can go quite well. That being said, 110 plus, wow, for Intel.
Now, why is all of this happening? A lot of people think it's crazy. I guess it isn't really crazy when you think about this capex spend and this circular kind of flow. So it depends when you think that becomes a problem because at the moment the earnings are massive and that's of course making the Wall Street buffins going and upgrading across the board. This chart here from Duality Research over on X big shout out to you. And of course you can see here Ford guidance uh continuing to look very good according to what the Bothans believe and that's what they're doing. They're pricing up. So at the moment they priced up the stock was behind that is semiconductors. It's starting to catch up now with those prices and now we're starting to see some large transactions. So, we're getting clusters for the first time in a little while. We did see clusters halfway through though and that got no price action. So, remember it's clusters that is flow plus actual price action to say, yeah, we're stopping this trend. We haven't seen that yet that part yet, guys. And that's important because even this chart here from Jason Gotford over on X Capital Context as well, give him a follow. Rolling 21day sum of daily fund flow from the cues. You can see while that has gone up, it can go even crazier. But what this tends to do is it tends to mean most of the party or most of the trend is probably over. So at this stage, you know, everyone's aware of this. Everyone's talking about it. Calls are out of control. Bare puts are out of control. Everybody's positioning heavily. And that means leverage is in the markets now, which means that Wall Street is usually pretty good at extracting that. So at some point they're probably going to say, "Haha, guys, we've got you."
Now, where could money flow go to? Well, we've long thought about this concept. And of course, at the moment, it's been about the picks and the shovels. We wrote a newsletter about that over the last week where we talked about the idea that this is the hardware cycle. So therefore, what's been doing well? Well, you've seen the pickup of uranium over the last year and some energy stocks have done well. Obviously semiconductors, hardware in general, they've been the stocks and software has been brutalized for this. But in recent weeks, we've seen not only high volume, but we've also seen some form of basing pattern and that did break above over the last 24 hours. So we actually saw a cross above the 100 day moving average, which is, you know, a considerable moving average. And Blue Kurdic put this together over on X as well. And it kind of shows here that when that has happened in the past, which is often, as you can see here, a bit of a bottoming sign. Remember, above the daily 200. Now, that's actually really good. That's uh that's a fantastic read. This one here's the 100 though. You can see here the paths and structures. I got to say, I like these structures as well. The average path concept here is also a cool image. So, congrats to Blue Kodic for putting that in. I think that's actually pretty sweet, guys.
Let's have a look now at how this fits into midterm election years. Well, we got a massive rally off March into April. That's usually what happens. May can stay quite resilient. Okay, that seems to be what's happening at this stage. And then often the markets will pull back. Now, this is no sure thing. This is just a seasonal pattern, but at least it does make some sense to what we're currently seeing in the markets. And of course, we will be focused in on the price action and the flows cuz we're looking for more clusters. So far, we've seen a bit of clustering in the semiconductors, but no price action flow just yet.
Now, let's talk about the charts that matter, then do the options, then do the lead indicators and the rest. And we'll start off here with the US dollar, which has bounced again off the key support, and it's in the middle of kind of the key support and resistance. I think some known zones to note probably around that 9844 high, guys. If that happens, it may signify we're going towards resistance. And obviously, you're always looking for on the dollar index some form of of of support risk on riskoff kind of concept. So, if you break to the upside, could be risk off. If you break to the downside, could be further risk on. At the moment, it's been risk on across the board because we've also had the advanced decline line on the S&P continuing to make a series of higher highs, higher lows, which tends to be quite strong. So, especially even if we pull back here, let's say to 710 or something, the daily 20, and if this still remains above that last low, then that's actually a pretty strong sign that it could be just a dip from Wall Street. So again, we focus on this, but at the moment, this market has been trending up, advanced decline line, strong. That's important to note.
Let's have a look at the futures action. Uh these aren't actually the option high levels. They're around the right levels, but they're not for today, guys. I'll get them for the weekend, for Monday, of course, but I wasn't able to get them today. But you can see here that the market dropped a little bit, but it's not even, you know, really back to anything that important. Why? Because we know that 50 exponential moving average, the blue line here on the 2hour, that's been where we've seen dynamic support in the past. So, we're still looking for that. We're we're still kind of saying, you know, at the moment, have we got any weakness? The NASDAQ's the same? Not really. I mean, it hasn't come back even to the first little minor support dynamic. So, uh still very, very strong these markets.
Now, how do we explain that? Well, all has to do with a ton of options. And we've been in positive gamma now for a little while. You can see here the price is still above, you know, some of the key zones. The 7,400 core wall is now the biggest one. And you can see the next 24 hours is around 7350. So 7,400 on most strikes, 7350, and we're currently trading around 7337. When we take a look at the cues, something similar is occurring. 700 is becoming the call wall here across most strikes. It's been an incredible run so far. And I just wanted to show you guys that uh Tesla entered into positive gamma big time last 24 hours as well as we got through 400. Now this doesn't mean it's going to squeeze off into the sun or anything, but it does mean that at least it does have some hedging calls. And it's an interesting level here because Tesla again not not many people talking about it. Just just you know again key to see it on the charts, see it in the options. You guys are obviously seeing that it's good for educational purposes.
Nvidia, what's happening here? Well, 210 little bit closure above that. Some people are starting to post the fact that Nvidia's been underperforming the SPY or their semiconductors, I mean, for quite some time. Yes, it's at its first little kind of cross analysis support. So, will Nvidia start to pick up? Little news announcements do tend to get things going, even if they are circular or at least a flying wheel. But yeah, announcements, the more announcements, the better it seems in this market at this stage. So, we'll see if that can keep going, but it's still a series of higher highs and higher lows for now. And if you have a look here at Bitcoin, this was a little bit surprising. We actually dropped over the last 24 hours on Bitcoin. And although we're not, you know, making a lower low, so still higher high, higher low, which we'll look at soon, the gamma is not really pulling through. So, it does go to show it's not every time, but yeah, still looking okay on the charts. No Ethereum break. That I think is very important as well.
Let's have a look at the bonds market. Did it care over the last 24 hours? Uh, the answer is no. It didn't really do anything. So, we didn't see a huge move in the move. And we also didn't see a breakout in the most important yields. 30-year, 10 year, 2year. None of those seem to be breaking out just yet. US oil up, down, up, down, up, down. No one's really too sure what's going on here. Clearly, uh, we saw another sell off on oil and then it bounced back and it held again this mini demand. So, for now, I guess you would say basically energy and oil is kind of holding. If we have a look at Angie stocks, they actually dropped again but then rebounded a little bit. And this puts us to, you know, certain fibs as well. You can see here we went down to the 618 fib on XLE. So, you'd have to hope that this is about the level where you'd see some demand for energy. And usually when NGI picks up like this, although there are some negative stats to do with big spikes like we saw, generally speaking, NG stocks when they break out of multi-year highs like they did just a little while ago, they do tend to still be pretty strong for a while. And this is the multi-year high we're talking about. So interested to to continue to watch this one and see how it ends up um through the year, but I don't know if it's that weak.
Now, a few people are sharing charts such as this one, the VX uh V versus VIX. Now, this versus the S&P. The idea is if it goes too high, uh, then it could be, you know, getting a little bit too extreme. I'd say I kind of tested this and you can already see it's not necessarily the best read. Not bad off the, uh, off the oversells though. So, once you get underneath certain levels, you can see here in the past, it's been pretty good dip by opportunity kind of concept, but it's not as good on the calls. But, I thought I'd bring it up anyway. Interesting chart for you to check out yourself.
What about metals? Pretty good. Copper breaking through here, new highs, weekly close will be a focus of us this weekend. And XME as well. It was doing pretty well. Had a little bit of a pullback last 24 hours, but um still well above uh that breakout that it did on the 7th, was it the 7th of May? 6th of May, it was the breakout.
So, what about the semiconductors? Well, they remain, of course, incredibly strong. We're maybe in irrational times by some measures, but again, it's because everything's getting upgraded due to these massive deals and huge capex spend. Have semiconductors shown weakness? Not really. They had that little bit the other day, which could have been seen as a minor island reversal, but we didn't see any structural change. And I've had a look around and and really it's been a super aggressive, you know, trade trend. I mean, the only thing you can see here is the 2hour 22 a degree, but even then, it's not been that strong for holding dynamic support. So, it's one of those markets where it's just been up up up and there's not that much many easy ways to get into it unless you're doing very small time frame stuff. So, that can be a bit tough. Nvidia semiconductors, as we mentioned before, it's right around that support line for this particular stock. And if we have a look at Nvidia itself, it is still quite strong on the charts and it's been making a series of breakout highs. Most notably, we saw that weekly close on the 20th of April and starting to play a little bit of catch-up. So maybe Nvidia is the better semiconductor right now, at least based on certain metrics. And if they do make lots of announcements, at least the market seems to like that. But from the potential technical side, we're getting a series of higher highs and higher lows at this stage.
Semiconductors. Yeah, everyone is super negative on these. You wonder how markets go up. Well, everyone does the wrong thing. Now, that's starting to switch a little bit, though. Although there are huge bare positions, there are also huge bull volumes as well. And yeah, again, do we have structure? No. Do we have some flows? Yeah, we're starting to get some big dark pulls, some big transactions coming through, and that's causing massive volume, but we haven't seen the V itself come into it. So, we haven't seen volatility itself drop through. Some stuff there to take away though. Huge volumes here on the semiconductor shorts and bull positions. SNDK first two days of weakness in a while. This is of course a nut stock. This one's absolutely wild. I wouldn't have thought this is going this high, but hey, it does do things and this is the the the nature of markets. Sometimes they push past levels. I just want to kind of note here, although they're not the same. If you think about Avis just a few weeks ago, everyone was talking about it. And now look at this thing. 154 from 850. So it just goes to show again when things are over, sometimes they're bad. Now I don't expect that for a quality stock like SNDK, but it just goes to show that volatility can arise when everyone least expects it.
IGV Software, nice closure high here. So that's pretty strong. Obviously the three kind of low big volume something we've talked about for a while actually you know little island reversal here in the direction of trend which is how you want to like it at least short-term trend and yeah interesting to see software picking up here a little bit with some of the stocks now we talked about Tesla before are we heading for 450 or something around there we've got several key levels in this area and of course we're now in positive gamma on the charts but just goes to show again that there are different abundance kind of mindsets Here.
Speaking of abundance, gold improved last couple of sessions and still is in that kind of double bottom style pattern. Will we break to the upside? Um, I mean, not break, we've already broken to the upside. Will we continue up to these resistance levels? Well, it's looking pretty encouraging. I'd love to see the weekly closure on this as well. Little tweezer would be pretty sweet for gold. It's been a while since we've really kind of even looked at that technically. And silver also improving quite a lot over the last 24 hours. Starting to trend on the internet as well as people get excited. Did hit first resistance. Will it go through that level though? Close above it and then open up the possibility of an equilibrium up until that 935070 zone. Well, that is of course the question for silver and gold. But nice moves there on those pairs.
XJO time. The Australian market literally a dogee on the weekly. It's up down up down up down. If metals do well, maybe XJO does better. But yeah, 9,000 is still a resistance. Little bit of support around 86. That's a fib level and really around this 8,600 I think is a very important level for the bulls to hold if they can.
NASDAQ time, we've already talked about it. Very strong trend. No reason to say it's over yet. To our 50 is the key.
So what about Bitcoin? Well, of course, we've seen here the daily 20 getting hit a few times over and it's been pretty important. So daily 20 continues to hold on the way up and basically this is the market that or the biggest level that probably matters right now for Bitcoin to continue to make those series of higher highs and higher lows. We're also in the anchored VWAP zone at around 79 12 which was that breakout level. So pretty important for it to hold here. Ethereum itself did not close above this important zone. So very important it also holds because you don't really want it under things like 2200 too much.
And really, I think maybe this is getting set up for what's going on with non-farm payrolls. You know, what do these numbers even mean? I always say on this channel, this is a bit of a guess fest, but the expectation is that there'll be some jobs created. Uh, is it bad news is good news, good news is good news, and really bad news is bad news. Probably something like that makes the most amount of sense. I know that seems insane, but hey, that's the markets for us at this point. And in general, of course, that basically means that, you know, we've got a market that is running really on a couple of storylines and there are still concerns about everything else that's happening. Clearly, retail's involved heavily here, guys. People are positioned. You see a lot of bulls going crazy about capex spend. You see a lot of bears saying the circular money AI kind of thing can't last forever. Are they both right? Probably both right in some ways. And that might sound insane. you're you're right until you're wrong, but you're also right until the trend ends. So, in this case, you know, you do generally want to be optimistic in markets. We often talk about that. Uh though, I do think that this this flywheel kind of financing that's going on to AI, if I had to guess, I think this will be one of those stories. Remember when we talked about space space data centers just about 2 months ago? To me, this is all the rumblings. The IPOs are what I'm really looking for. So, when will we get the the data on all of those, you know, these trillion dollar IPOs that are coming in, SpaceX, Open AI, and of course, Anthropic? This is a big deal. This is what everyone's going to be talking about, and this is really what's running this market. It's often once the IPOs have settled or come in that we really find out what's happening cuz remember, a lot of these are expected to go straight into the S&P.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's show, remember to subscribe, check us out next, check out our newsletter as well. Some great stuff there. Really great feedback on it as well. Thank you so much for watching. You have a fantastic day. Keep at it, guys. Abundance mindset. See you in the next one.