Transcription
Let's now go across to American political scientist John Mearsheimer and understand the latest US Iran escalation. Is this the classic escalation trap, Mr. Mearsheimer? Good evening and thank you for speaking with us here at CNN-News18.
My first question to you is has Donald Trump got caught in an escalation trap?
I think there's no question about that. The problem that President Trump faces is that the United States has lost this war. And if we go back to the memorandum of understanding that was signed on June 17th, this was the memorandum that looked like it was going to end the war. It was basically a surrender document. The United States gave in to Iran on every point. In other words, Iran won on every point. And the reason is that the United States did not have a military strategy to defeat Iran.
Now, what's happened since June 17th is that the United States tried to open a separate channel in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz that the Iranians refused to accept. So, we've now got back to a situation where the two sides are attacking each other with these tit-for-tat military strikes. But, the problem is the United States can't win this battle just like it couldn't win the battle before June 17th. And that's why we had to sign the memorandum of understanding. Nothing has changed. The United States does not have a magic formula for defeating Iran. So, President Trump can escalate all he wants, but it's not going to do any good because the Iranians will match the United States at every point and we don't gain an advantage.
Mhm. And they can do it far more cost-effectively. Would you agree that?
Absolutely. You want to remember that one of the principal reasons that we ended the air war on April 8th. It's important to understand that the war started on February 28th. On April 8th, we ended the air war and we moved to a naval blockade. This is a long time the long time before the memorandum of understanding is signed.
Mhm.
The reason that we ended the air war is that we were running out of munitions. The United States does not have an endless supply of munitions or weapons that it can use to conduct a large-scale air offensive. So, we're in a position today where we have to be very careful that we don't use up almost all of the remaining weapons that we have. So, you're absolutely right that Iran using these ballistic missiles and drones that they have is at a great advantage against the United States which has all of this expensive weaponry but only limited numbers of the weapons.
On on a more slightly macro perspective, does this also signal the end of the American hegemony across the world? Is now America as as a global power is it a thing of the past? Global military power.
Let me make two points. First of all America's position as the most powerful state in the world by far, ended in about 2017, when the world went from unipolar to multipolar. It's when China and Russia became great powers. So, the days when the United States was the only great power in the world, this is the famous unipolar moment, ended in 2017. So, we are now in a position, we meaning the United States, where we face two other great powers, and one of them, China, threatens to become as powerful as the United States. So, independent independent of the Iran war, we have lost our position as the world's only great power.
The second point I would make to you is if the United States loses the war against Iran, it will have no effect on America's position in the global balance of power. When I was young, we lost the war in Vietnam. And it was a disastrous defeat for the United States, but it had no effect on the balance of power, and in fact, 14 years later, the Soviet Union collapsed and the United States became the unipolar. So, it's just important to understand that the United States is an incredibly powerful country. And the only threat, the only threat to its power in the international system, is not what happens in Iran, but it's China.
But whatever happens with Iran has a direct bearing on China, because many believe that the Chinese are also operating in the shadows, and they have helped with Iran a lot. They've collaborated with Iran, and they've also learned from Iran. Be their missile technology, their drone technology, and of course, they'll be studying the war giving. There is also the intelligence that's being and many believe even right now the shipping to China continues. The trade with China via the rail route via Bolistan continues and America has not been able to hurt China in this war much. So do you see China becoming far more stronger, Russia becoming far more stronger and resolved because America's focus on Ukraine will be a little diluted. Do do you see this shift happening because of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and with Iran?
I think there is no question that China and Russia have benefited from this war. And I also think unsurprisingly that there's no question that both China and Russia are helping the Iranians fight against the Americans. They would be crazy not to help the Iranians. The United States is a mortal enemy to both Russia and to China. And Russia and China have a deep-seated interest in making sure that the United States loses its war against Iran. So they're giving the Iranians weaponry and they're giving the Iranians intelligence which is very important for Iran waging the war.
But just to go to China for a moment. If you're China and you're worrying about the United States pivoting to Asia to contain China. What you want to do is get the United States bogged down in a war in the Middle East so that it takes precious resources away from East Asia and sends them to the Middle East so that it uses up precious weaponry fighting against Iran that it doesn't have to use against China. So, there's no question that from a Chinese point of view, and also from a Russian point of view, that this war is a good thing as long as the United States loses. And of course, those two countries, Russia and China, will do everything they can for good strategic reasons to make sure that we lose.
What What happens to the Gulf countries here? We'll come to Israel in a bit, Mr. Mearsheimer. What about the Gulf countries? All those who allowed America to set up bases on the promise that America will protect these countries, etc. Will they now recalibrate? Do we see a fresh arms race in the Gulf region where every nation tries to now become militarily uh stronger to try and match Iran?
I think there's no question that this war has had disastrous consequences for American military bases in the region and for America's alliance with the Gulf states. On February 27th, the day before the war started, it looked like the United States had this very formidable alliance and basing system in the Persian Gulf. After the war started, it became clear that that was not true. These bases that were spread out among the Gulf states were highly vulnerable to Iranian drones and Iranian missiles. And in fact, by all accounts, the Iranians have either badly damaged or destroyed every single American base in the region.
Furthermore, if you're the Gulf states and you're depending on the United States to provide security for you, if anything, the exact opposite has happened Because you're aligned with the United States, your country has become a giant magnet for attracting Iranian missiles and attracting Iranian drones. This is a disaster for the Gulf states. So, the question then becomes, what do the Gulf states do moving forward? And furthermore, what does the United States do moving forward? Do we rebuild those bases? Do we try to rebuild the alliance structure? Do those Gulf states have a vested interest in being aligned with the United States? I think the Gulf states are going to alter their foreign policies in very important ways, and I think most of all, they're going to try to reach an accommodation with the Iranians because they understand the Iranians can do so much damage to them.
Furthermore, I think the Chinese will play an increasingly important role in the Middle East, uh, and countries in that region will go to great lengths to have good relations, of course, with the United States. It's not like they're going to have bad relations with the United States, but they won't have relations that were as close as they once were. And on the other hand, they'll have closer relations with Iran and closer relations with China.
But, uh do you believe that the Strait of Hormuz now will be permanently controlled by Iran?
I think there's no question that's the case. Uh the United States has abundant military assets in the Gulf today, and we are trying very hard to control the strait and make sure that Iran does not control the strait. But, the fact is Iran does control the strait. Uh Uh, the ships that are getting through, normally about 130 ships get through every day. It looks like there about 10 or 12 get ships getting through, uh, today. And all of those ships are going through the Iranian controlled channel. In other words, they have to get permission from Iran. None of those ships are going through the channel that the United States would like them to go through that runs along the Omani coast. So, if you look at what the situation is today, it's quite clear that Iran controls the Gulf and Iran has made it manifestly clear that it plans to control the Gulf forever.
So, that that clearly tells these nations that they put their eggs in the wrong basket, especially with the US. Uh, does that also then tell all the other countries which had US bases and which were depending on US for security? That that's not going to happen. Nations like Indonesia, Japan, Korea, uh, so many others who would now turn around and say, "We'd rather de-link from the US and, uh, build capabilities of our own."
I don't think so. Uh, I I I think what's happening in the Gulf is very different, uh, from what's happening, let's just talk about East Asia with countries like South Korea, Japan, um, Indonesia, the Philippines, and so forth and so on. Uh, I think the United States has a deep-seated interest in containing China, uh, as do those countries in East Asia that we were just listing. And those countries plus the United States will work together, uh, to contain,
[snorts]
the Chinese. This is not to deny that by getting deeply involved in the Middle East, the United States has weakened its position in East Asia. There's no question about that. But, it's not like those countries in East Asia that are allies of the United States, say South Korea and Japan, are going to break relations with the United States and go out on their own. They cannot do that because they're dealing with China, which is an incredibly powerful state. They need help from the United States. So, I don't think that other countries around the world that are now allied with the United States will abandon their alliances with the United States because of this disaster in the Middle East.
Hm. How how do you see Israel in this? Is Israel now a vital cog? Is it a headache that the Americans cannot do, you know, something that's stuck in their throat? They can neither spit nor swallow. Is that how Israel's stature is? Or is America worried that if Israel is left to fend for itself, it may just go Samson against Iran?
There's a couple points here. First of all, we want to remember that when the war started on February 28th, it was the Israelis and the United States together that attacked Iran. So, although all the focus these days is on negotiations between the United States and Iran, the war has been between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other.
Second point you want to keep in mind is that the Israelis and the Americans went into this war with a set of goals. For example, they were interested in regime change in Iran. They were interested in eliminating Iran's capability to enrich uranium. They were interested in doing away with Iran's ballistic missiles. They were interested in doing away with Iranian support of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Yes, we have failed. We, meaning the United States and Israel, have failed on every one of those objectives. And furthermore, we now have a situation where Iran controls the Gulf. This is a disaster for both the United States and Israel, but especially for Israel. Israel is in real trouble because Israel has been unable to shut down Iran's nuclear program, which is the issue that it it cares about the most. It's been unable to shut it down. And there is a serious possibility, I'm not saying it's likely, there's a serious possibility that Iran will get nuclear weapons.
Now, this creates a situation, you were referring to the Samson option. This creates a situation where if Israel, which is so deeply concerned about an Iranian nuclear weapon, if if if Israel and the United States cannot get a nuclear deal with Iran, then there is a serious possibility that the Israelis will use their nuclear weapons to attack Iran to prevent Iran from going down the nuclear road and in and acquiring their own nuclear weapons. So, this is a very dangerous situation, in large part because Israel and the United States have failed in all their objectives, but most importantly, they failed to get a new nuclear agreement with the with the Iranians.
Mhm.
What do you see happening, Mr. Mersheimer, in the next 2 weeks? Will Trump fold and say, "Not my headache anymore. You guys resolve." And leave it to Israel to fend for itself or support Israel in whatever fights it fights with the Samson option on the table? Or do you believe Trump will still slug it out with the IRGC till he can force a regime change or perhaps a deal that will help him go back to his base and say, "I'm a winner." Not the L tag on him, but I'm a winner.
Well, let's talk first about what Trump is likely to do with the Iranians.
Mhm.
Uh it's quite clear from what's happened over the past week that Trump is trying to escalate, not too much. He doesn't want to go back to a full-scale air war. But he's trying to escalate and put pressure on Iran to reach a settlement. But that's not going to happen. The Iranians are not going to agree to a settlement. The only thing they'll agree to is some variation of the memorandum of understanding.
Yeah.
And it will be a variation where the Iranians end up playing a stronger hand, not a weaker hand. Because the Iranians have the most coercive leverage here. This means that at some point Trump has to concede defeat. He can't go on for months and months waging this war the way he is at the present time. Uh there's no question that he's able to do it right now, but we do not have the munitions. And also the economic consequences will be so great if this war isn't ended in a month's time that President Trump is going to have to concede. And again, it's going to be a defeat for the United States. We have no war-winning strategy. So, in my opinion, the only question is when President Trump folds.
Uh now, with regard to US-Israeli relations, I think there's no question that US-Israeli relations have been damaged because the Israelis do not want us to reach any kind of agreement with the Iranians. And the Israelis, of course, were adamantly opposed to the 17 June memorandum of understanding. So, relations between the United States and Israel have been damaged. But I do believe that moving forward, the United States will remain closely allied with Israel. And it will do everything it can to constrain Israel from restarting the war against Iran. Because the last thing the United States will want to do once this war ends is start it up again. So, we will do everything we can to restrain the Israel is to restrain the Israelis, which I think will hurt US-Israeli relations, which again have already been damaged by this war.
True. Final question, Mr. Mayersheimer, in this conversation, what do you think Trump will do next? The midterms are coming up. He will want to serve up his version of a victory. So, what do you see him do from where he can at least go back with some sort of a win? Because he does not want the loser tag on him.
No, there's no question about that. And I think there's no doubt that he's going to have to reach an agreement at some point in the not-too-distant future because the midterms are coming up. And again, also because of the damage that's being done to the international economy. So, he's going to have to reach an agreement and the Iranians are clearly going to win. But, what President Trump will do is he will declare victory. And all of his acolytes will say that it is a great victory. The question is do you think that he will be able to convince most Americans, most voters, uh that he won the war against Iran? And I think he will not be able to do that. And I don't think he will be able to convince most people around the world, including in countries like India. We could all see with our own eyes what's happening here.
Yeah.
And we've reached a point where you have to ask yourself, do you believe what we see with our own eyes or do you believe what President Trump says? And I think almost all of us believe what we see with our own eyes. And the fact is that the Iranians have been able to stymie the Americans
Yeah.
and indeed defeat the Americans. I think before this war, to be honest, that hardly anyone thought that the Iranians would do as well as they have done in this war. I think lots of people understood, me included, that the Iranians had some powerful cards to play. But, I don't think anyone fully understood, including the Iranians themselves, exactly how this war would play out and how well Iran would do against the United States. But, that's what's happened and this is why the United States, and in particular President Trump, is in so much trouble today.
Because US Israel did not game the closure of Hormuz. They didn't realize that uh that that the straight will be weaponized by the Iranians, while the IRGC had gained that all along.
Exactly. Yeah. Well, you want to remember there was a war last year between Iran on one side and the Israelis and the Americans on the other side. It was the 12-day war that went from June 13th to June 25th of 2025. It was a much quicker war. And it looked like the United States and Israel could fight a quick war against Iran and if not win, at least not lose. Uh but what happened on February 28th of this year, and this is the second war against Iran and we want to remember. In this war, we had much more ambitious objectives. We were interested in things like regime change. And once we started a war with these ambitious objectives, the Iranians escalated their response. Last year, they did not close the Strait of Hormuz in the 12-day war. In this war, they closed the Strait of Hormuz and as you pointed out, that was their ace in the hole and that is what has given them so given them so much leverage over the United States and Israel.
True. Everything changes. Even if there is peace or deals is worked out or if there is escalation of conflict, everything changes. There is a reorder and there is a reset. I will talk at length about this very soon, Mr. Mersheimer, but for the moment I have to pause here. Thank you so much.
You're welcome.